We shall see. Several airlines are bullish on pent-up demand and are hoping to see the return of 2019 numbers by late summer 2021. However, I'm not quite that bullish. Airlines and airports must continue to implement new and more advanced safety measures to increase consumer confidence. Additionally, a more consistent and systematic approach needs to be implemented when speaking of international travel.
Current schedules for U.S. domestic routes departures are going to be down 40%-45% across most airlines this month (December). And, international scheduled departures will be down 55% over the same period.
Monthly capacities are hovering around 50% versus 2019. And, most airlines are projecting at least a +50% change in capacity (post vaccine) in 2021 versus 2020.
Many CEOs seem to be falling back on the HUB structure to push them through a recovery. How exactly that will affect AUS, I'm not quite sure.
The expansion will happen. However, both the airport and airlines need to see how things develop over the coming 18 or so months to determine if any changes should be considered.
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AUSTIN (City): 993,588 +3.30% - '20-'24 | AUSTIN MSA (5 counties): 2,550,637 +11.70% - '20-'24
SAN ANTONIO (City): 1,526,656 +6.41% - '20-'24 | SAN ANTONIO MSA (8 counties): 2,763,006 +8.01% - '20-'24
AUS-SAT REGION (MSAs/13 counties): 5,313,643 +9.75% - '20-'24 | *SRC: US Census*
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