Metro Vancouver Transit Discussion II

[officedweller]

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[officedweller]

Trolley bus wires were being installed at Richards & Pacific over the weekend.
Routing is southbound on Richards turning west onto Pacific. That also explains the lamp posts in the median along Pacific - to support the trolley wires.
Not sure what the bus route might be.

[jollyburger]

Artigiano coffee shop coming to North Vancouver transit exchange, but still no washrooms

North Vancouver’s Phibbs Exchange will soon be home to an Artigiano coffee shop.

Signs advertising the incoming coffee and pastry shop have gone up at the 638-square-foot commercial space included in the major rebuild of the transit hub finished last year.

The proprietor was selected through an open bid process, according to the transit authority.

“Artigiano is a popular, locally-owned, Vancouver-based coffee and café brand known for its high-quality, artisan-inspired coffee, snacks, and pastries,” a statement read. “Artigiano submitted a commercial offer and was selected, based on its operational agreement and ability to delivery a great amenity to our customers.”

The exact amount the coffee joint will pay for the space is considered commercially sensitive and won’t be released, according to TransLink.


“Revenue generated from this retail location will support TransLink services and investments. Our license term is typically over 10 years. We are targeting mid-2025 for the store opening,” the statement continued.

Finding a tenant to outfit and occupy the commercial space was one of the last items on the to-do list at Phibbs. Still missing, however, is a place to go for commuters when they’re on the go.

https://www.nsnews.com/local-news/artigi...exchange-but-still-no-washrooms-10377887

[jollyburger]

Sounds like the 40 foot buses on the 23 Beach/Main St Station route will launch in April.

[ssiguy]

I stated many months ago that Translink, as well as most other systems in the country, are going to be looking at ridership declines this year which will make it's funding/financial issues even more dire.

The new StatsCan 4th quarter pop have just been released and there are very bad numbers for BC. The province only grew by 3,000 in the last quarter and with the overall population expected to decline in 2025, ridership will decline. This is made even more glaring when you consider the demographics of those numbers. The majority of this massive decline from 4th quarter of 2023 is that immigration is declining but more importantly, students, refugees, and TFW are being sent packing........the number of people being turfed out is greater than the number being let in. Those 3 demographics leaving are the ones that are most dependent on taking transit so the lose of the population will be disproportionately be felt by transit agencies.

This will not effect current transit infrastructure already under construction as it is funded by different levels of gov't as a one time expense. It's the operational revenues that will decline and with Vancouver already suffering from a transit shortfall, the cuts to service maybe even more dramatic than Translink has already proposed. This lower service with higher fares results in lower ridership with even lower revenues which leads to further service cuts etc, etc..............the dreaded transit downward spiral. Translink will not be alone in this as many other systems will suffer the same fate but that is not going to be any comfort to Translink or transit riders.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

- snip -

TransLink's year-over-year ridership is UP from 2024, despite all the visas being capped. The shortfall comes from the gas tax drying up as everybody switches to EVs.

[Spr0ckets]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I stated many months ago that Translink, as well as most other systems in the country, are going to be looking at ridership declines this year which will make it's funding/financial issues even more dire.

The new StatsCan 4th quarter pop have just been released and there are very bad numbers for BC. The province only grew by 3,000 in the last quarter and with the overall population expected to decline in 2025, ridership will decline. This is made even more glaring when you consider the demographics of those numbers. The majority of this massive decline from 4th quarter of 2023 is that immigration is declining but more importantly, students, refugees, and TFW are being sent packing........the number of people being turfed out is greater than the number being let in. Those 3 demographics leaving are the ones that are most dependent on taking transit so the lose of the population will be disproportionately be felt by transit agencies.

This will not effect current transit infrastructure already under construction as it is funded by different levels of gov't as a one time expense. It's the operational revenues that will decline and with Vancouver already suffering from a transit shortfall, the cuts to service maybe even more dramatic than Translink has already proposed. This lower service with higher fares results in lower ridership with even lower revenues which leads to further service cuts etc, etc..............the dreaded transit downward spiral. Translink will not be alone in this as many other systems will suffer the same fate but that is not going to be any comfort to Translink or transit riders.

But isn't this what everyone wanted (circa about a year, or year and a half ago......re: immigration and less students/immigrants coming in)?

Except nobody seemed to be aware at the time that this might be one of the consequences.

Regardless of year-over-year ridership increase (which is more a snapshot for the moment, rather than an indication of the trend to the future that is the issue for translink's forecasted shortfall), an overall declining population growth numbers - with most of the decline happening in demographics that would likely ride transit more, doesn't bode well for Translink's prospects in this regard.

Maybe the current extension to the skytrain line will mitigate some of that by adding more riders from farther out, but it's hard to see it being by much.

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by Spr0ckets

But isn't this what everyone wanted (circa about a year, or year and a half ago......re: immigration and less students/immigrants coming in)?

Except nobody seemed to be aware at the time that this might be one of the consequences.

Regardless of year-over-year ridership increase (which is more a snapshot for the moment, rather than an indication of the trend to the future that is the issue for translink's forecasted shortfall), an overall declining population growth numbers - with most of the decline happening in demographics that would likely ride transit more, doesn't bode well for Translink's prospects in this regard.

Maybe the current extension to the skytrain line will mitigate some of that by adding more riders from farther out, but it's hard to see it being by much.

For quite awhile now it seems whenever I ride the Expo Line mid-day (when it should be quieter) there's at least a 50% chance it'll be standing room only. Sometimes it looks like just before rush hour.

People like Skytrain, so even if we do get a population decline I doubt it'll make much of a difference there. Maybe some bus routes will suffer but if TransLink does BRT right I can see that doing well.

Also transit service SoF has been outpacing the rest of the region. Adding Skytrain and BRT will only help.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I stated many months ago that Translink, as well as most other systems in the country, are going to be looking at ridership declines this year which will make it's funding/financial issues even more dire.

The new StatsCan 4th quarter pop have just been released and there are very bad numbers for BC. The province only grew by 3,000 in the last quarter and with the overall population expected to decline in 2025, ridership will decline. This is made even more glaring when you consider the demographics of those numbers. The majority of this massive decline from 4th quarter of 2023 is that immigration is declining but more importantly, students, refugees, and TFW are being sent packing........the number of people being turfed out is greater than the number being let in. Those 3 demographics leaving are the ones that are most dependent on taking transit so the lose of the population will be disproportionately be felt by transit agencies.

This will not effect current transit infrastructure already under construction as it is funded by different levels of gov't as a one time expense. It's the operational revenues that will decline and with Vancouver already suffering from a transit shortfall, the cuts to service maybe even more dramatic than Translink has already proposed. This lower service with higher fares results in lower ridership with even lower revenues which leads to further service cuts etc, etc..............the dreaded transit downward spiral. Translink will not be alone in this as many other systems will suffer the same fate but that is not going to be any comfort to Translink or transit riders.

You said it in November last year, and you said the impact would be in the short and medium term. Doesn't look like you know what you're talking about yet.

According to the Statistics Canada data,

TransLink saw 17,598,400 passenger trips in January 2024, and had revenue excluding subsidies of $51,094,100.

TransLink saw 19,888,300 passenger trips in January 2025, and had revenue excluding subsidies of $57,215,300.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Sheba

Adding Skytrain and BRT will only help.

We saw this back in 2010: a lot of previously-obligate drivers realized how much easier the Canada Line made their commutes and started using transit more. Broadway and Langley will likely do the same.

[RedArbutus]

I'd be curious to read any research that's available that measures what proportion of commuters saying they would "never" take transit switch their sentiment once major infrastructure and options for commuting come online.

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by Spr0ckets

But isn't this what everyone wanted (circa about a year, or year and a half ago......re: immigration and less students/immigrants coming in)?

Except nobody seemed to be aware at the time that this might be one of the consequences.

Regardless of year-over-year ridership increase (which is more a snapshot for the moment, rather than an indication of the trend to the future that is the issue for translink's forecasted shortfall), an overall declining population growth numbers - with most of the decline happening in demographics that would likely ride transit more, doesn't bode well for Translink's prospects in this regard.

Maybe the current extension to the skytrain line will mitigate some of that by adding more riders from farther out, but it's hard to see it being by much.

The rhetoric is our population is set to decline. This is absolutely false.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-ref...entary-immigration-levels-2025-2027.html

The 2025-27 Levels Plan projects a decrease in overall permanent resident admissions to 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027.

In keeping with these reductions, targets for new temporary resident arrivals are set at 673,650 in 2025, 516,600 in 2026, and 543,600 in 2027.

We are still to see growth between 800k to 1 mil over the next few years. This excludes asylum seekers along with those overstaying their visas and refusing deportation orders.

The elephant in the room is we bring in too many people to do gig economy work and therefore need to rely on vehicles. Many of these people work in the core and live in the periphery. Many newcomers are forced to rely on vehicular transportation at the onset of their arrival. You also have the stigmatization of public transportation with one particular demographic.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

The rhetoric is our population is set to decline. This is absolutely false.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-ref...entary-immigration-levels-2025-2027.html

We are still to see growth between 800k to 1 mil over the next few years. This excludes asylum seekers along with those overstaying their visas and refusing deportation orders.

No, it's true. You are only looking at the number still expected to arrive. The number expected to leave (because they came in on temporary visas which expire) is greater. The government statistics say net effect will see the population fall this year, and next.

"The 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan is expected to result in a marginal population decline of 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026 before returning to a population growth of 0.8% in 2027."

"Specifically, compared to each previous year, we will see Canada’s temporary population decline by 445,901 in 2025, and 445,662 in 2026, and will be followed by a modest increase of 17,439 in 2027"

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by RedArbutus

I'd be curious to read any research that's available that measures what proportion of commuters saying they would "never" take transit switch their sentiment once major infrastructure and options for commuting come online.

I like riding the skytrain. I hate the bus. I don't think I'm that uncommon out there.

Transit advocates would have us all believe it's the same, when it's nowhere close.

[jollyburger]

The electric test bus was out in North Burnaby this morning.

[ssiguy]

A population decline does not necessarily mean a decline in ridership if the service provided is better than what they had. This will, however, NOT be the case with Translink.
This population decline, and especially in such key demographic groups, combined with greatly reduced service and higher fares is a completely different matter. Due to Translink's dire financial situation, this population decline couldn't possibly happen at a worse time. Will ridership collapse? Of course not, and I would be very surprised if it dropped by more than 5% but that 5% still represents a real blow to a system that is already in financial straights.

If anybody here knows of a transit system that is up against this kind of combined headwinds and hasn't seen a decline in ridership, I'm all ears.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

- snip -

Fortunately, they've got the other 90+ percent of riders (including many new ones who'll start leaving the car at home and riding the new SkyTrains) to pick up the slack. The commuting habits of Gloucester Industrial Park workers are not representative of Metro Vancouver as a whole, nor is a train down the interurban going to fix anything.

[Changing City]

Is there some sort of election soon?

"Another $1.5 billion in federal funding has been promised for local transit projects.

The money was announced Friday morning, with Ottawa calling it long-term, predictable funding for the growth and maintenance of public transit in Metro Vancouver.

It will come through the creation of what’s called the Metro-Region Agreement, starting next year.

“The federal government is investing in public transit projects across the country to ensure that more Canadians are connected to jobs, services, and their communities. These sustained infrastructure investments are key to growing the strongest economy in the G7,” the statement from the federal government said.

“Metro Vancouver’s public transit network is one of the busiest in Canada, connecting the municipalities within the region with bus, SkyTrain, West Coast Express and SeaBus services.”

This is on top of $663 million in funding TransLink recently received from Ottawa, and “builds on great investments in the region, including almost $1.5 billion in support of the Surrey-Langley Skytrain and the Millennium Line Broadway Extension projects.”

citynews

CBC are reporting that the Sea to Sky Corridor is also getting $189 over 10 years for transit along the Sea to Sky Corridor.

[jollyburger]

2021 election promises showing up in timely fashion

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-transit-fund-1.5908346

[jollyburger]

The Metrotown to North Shore Corridor is continuing with its phased approach and technical work on the R2 Extension and BRT alignment options is progressing. Metrotown to North Shore BRT public engagement on alignment options is expected to take place in summer 2025.

TransLink is making it easier for electric vehicle (EV) drivers to choose transit, allowing them to charge up while they commute. In partnership with BC Hydro, TransLink has launched two new EV fast-charging hubs at Park and Ride
locations in Port Coquitlam and South Surrey, providing space for up to 38 EVs to charge simultaneously. These hubs will make it even easier for EV users to incorporate transit into their daily commutes.

Each hub offers a mix of Level 2 and 180-kilowatt chargers to meet different charging needs. Level 2 chargers are perfect for transit riders who want to charge their EV while commuting, while the 180-kilowatt chargers provide a fast-charging option for those needs to charge right away.

Mark V

Teams are working to ready our network to allow for in-system revenue testing before the end of Q1 2025

https://www.translink.ca/-/media/transli...h/public-board-meeting-march-26-2025.pdf