When will the Winnipeg CMA hit 1,000,000 people?

[BlackDog204]

My guess is 2028

[The Jabroni]

2028.

Barring the actual tallies in the 2026 census, I can see Winnipeg hitting 1 million by this time.

[optimusREIM]

It will be interesting to see if the meteoric growth can continue. If the next estimate has us sniffing around 950k or above, my guess is some time in 2027 or maybe sooner. Depends.

[Winnipegger]

People need to look at the components of growth for the CMA. The figure for 2023 had permanent immigration at ~20,000 which was a bit high, but in-line with recent historical rates. The outlier was non-permanent residents - the CMA added, on net, over 18,000 non-permanent residents in 2023. Historically, this has averaged closer to 1,500 per year.

The non-permanent resident category has come under fire at the federal level this past year, and the latest national stats showed they made up 6.5% of total population and recently the feds, in response to the national outcry, pledged to bring this down to 5% over the next three years. It's a bit vague, but suffice to say I don't think we will continue to see such massive net increases in non PRs over the next few years. We can expect ~10,000 to 20,000 for 2024 perhaps, but looking forward I'd wager we will see a net decrease over the medium term as we return to historical averages to meet the Federal government targets.

A ~33,000 person increase for the CMA will not be the new normal, it's simply not sustainable. We'll probably see a 20,000 to 30,000 increase for 2024 and then strong moderation to ~15,000 people on net for the years that follow. I'd estimate the CMA's population will exceed 1 million in 2031.

People need to keep in mind that we grow from migration, and migrants have a significant attrition rate after their first to fifth years. In Manitoba, only ~70% of international migrants remain in province after 5 years. So the more people we bring in during a given year, the bigger the outflow is in subsequent years. We will continue to see upticks in interprovincial out-migration (despite the Premiere's best efforts) as the balloon in immigration last year works its way through time and those immigrants leave for other provinces.

[BlackDog204]

Due to the Government changing how many new Canadians are allowed back in 2024, I will have to revise my prediction.

2033.

[dennis]

The only way that we will see a reversal of out migration is if we see a better environment to attract business and industry back to Manitoba. They will require people to employ, and skilled people would move here because there are good jobs available for them. I dunno maybe make it more appealing for the mining sector, manufacturing and industries that already have a good foundation in this province. Maybe provide incentives for industry integrated to our natural resources. Such as ev battery, engine and vehicle manufacturing.

[The Jabroni]

Revisiting this thread, I still think we're on track for 2028. The only real setback that may not meet that target year is housing, and how quickly our governments can implement them in a relatively short amount of time.

[Outlandish18]

I'd love to see more infrastructure built especially healthcare and housing before we hit that number on 2028. It's a nightmare to think 150,000 added to our CMA without changes to hospital capacity.

[pspeid]

Originally Posted by The Jabroni

Revisiting this thread, I still think we're on track for 2028. The only real setback that may not meet that target year is housing, and how quickly our governments can implement them in a relatively short amount of time.

We seem to be making inroads on the housing front, notwithstanding the Granite Curling Club's attack on affordable housing. I probably don't have a full grasp on the numbers of units actually needed to make the housing affordable as well as available, but I like to think we're making progress.

As Outlandish18 commented, increasing healthcare capacity is also an issue. If the pattern of provincial government elections continue we'll have another 4-ish years with Wab and the NDP, so we probably won't see more PC attacks on publicly funded healthcare for a while (at least until Wab has worn out his welcome as all premiers do).

Putting up buildings is always easier than staffing them, so competing with other jurisdictions to find healthcare workers will still be an uphill climb. There's also the weird feud going on between the NDP and the head of the Mb Nurses Union Darlene Jackson. Jackson never seems to miss an opportunity to crap on the province and threaten union action. I realize Unions exist to grow the size of the union, whatever the provincial government, but I had expected a little more cooperation between a traditionally pro-union party and a government union. Again, I'm not on the inside, so maybe Jackson has some legitimate beefs, but it's not a good look for the NDP on the healthcare front.