2019 Federal Election: BC Ridings

waves · #1 Posted **Sep 10, 2019, 4:12 AM**

The federal election is coming up and just today there was some research released on the competitiveness of ridings country wide. There were a few really interesting graphics related to BC Ridings. The whole document can be seen here.

https://i.imgur.com/HZ5lZ4t.png

https://i.imgur.com/hy5qrxt.png

https://i.imgur.com/DruNVjR.png?1

Source of Images: Innovative Research, https://innovativeresearch.ca/2019-f..._medium=social, September 2019

WarrenC12 · #2 Posted **Sep 10, 2019, 4:08 PM**

Interesting results, thanks. Very locally, there will be a lot of eyes on Vancouver-Granville of course, and Vancouver-Kingsway.

Aroundtheworld · #3 Posted **Sep 10, 2019, 6:57 PM**

I really want Wilson-Raybould to win. Not because I like her political views but because I don't like corruption.

whatnext · #4 Posted **Sep 11, 2019, 11:43 PM**

Ugh, I see the Conservatives are running Wai Young again in Vancouver-South. I hope Sajjan trounces her easily.

misher · #5 Posted **Sep 12, 2019, 1:09 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext

Ugh, I see the Conservatives are running Wai Young again in Vancouver-South. I hope Sajjan trounces her easily.

Oh god seriously that was dumb.

Tetsuo · #6 Posted **Sep 12, 2019, 2:46 AM**

NDP going to bleed seats to all three CPC, LPC and GPC province wide
Liberals are going to lose some Vancouver suburban seats to the CPC

Migrant_Coconut · #7 Posted **Sep 12, 2019, 2:49 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext

Ugh, I see the Conservatives are running Wai Young again in Vancouver-South. I hope Sajjan trounces her easily.

Surely she can't get wiped any harder than in the municipal election?

CanSpice · #8 Posted **Sep 12, 2019, 5:29 PM**

338canada.com is projecting the NDP would take about 4 ridings in BC. Which four? Peter Julien in New Westminster--Burnaby is a shoe-in. I would imagine that Singh will hold onto Burnaby South. Will Nathan Cullen's riding stick with the NDP even though he's not running again? I'd think so given the whopping margin of victory Cullen had in 2015 -- 26%. Vancouver East should stick with the NDP too.

Is Don Davies safe against Tamara Taggart? Does the Green Party make inroads on Vancouver Island? How much does Murray Rankin's retirement hurt the NDP in Victoria?

logan5 · #9 Posted **Sep 12, 2019, 6:29 PM**

Normally an NDP supporter but I don't have the strength to vote for Jenny Kwan. She has ruined the election for me. That being said, I think the NDP is quite safe in Vancouver East without me.

Dengler Avenue · #10 Posted **Sep 12, 2019, 6:35 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aroundtheworld

I really want Wilson-Raybould to win. Not because I like her political views but because I don't like corruption.

I would like to see some independants in the house of commons too.

ssiguy · #11 Posted **Sep 12, 2019, 9:53 PM**

BC will actually be quite interesting to watch. Certainly the winner will be decided before the polls close in Manitoba but BC may determine whether it's a majority or minority government so Easteners may have to stay up to find out.

I'm sure the Liberals will lose some seats and God knows the NDP will but BC will also be worth watching because of the Greens. They have their most solid support in BC and Atlantic Canada where their support has also been at the expense of the NDP.

As for some of the NDP seats being safe, I wouldn't bank on it. According to 338Canada, they have no really secure seats anywhere in the country including not only Vancouver but also their bastions of support in Southern Ontario like Windsor and Hamilton. Their Quebec base has imploded and Singh's bizzare decision not to visit NB once has killed him in AC. It's entirely possible that the NDP maybe entering BC on election night with only 2 or 3 seats.

rofina · #12 Posted **Sep 12, 2019, 11:33 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by logan5

Normally an NDP supporter but I don't have the strength to vote for Jenny Kwan. She has ruined the election for me. That being said, I think the NDP is quite safe in Vancouver East without me.

Shes not getting my vote. I think there is more of us too.

Tetsuo · #13 Posted **Sep 13, 2019, 12:20 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanSpice

Is Don Davies safe against Tamara Taggart?

I think both internal Liberal and NDP polling is showing Vancouver Kingsway to be competitive, Trudeau started and introduced yesterday.

Meanwhile Don Davies has gone to riling up NIMBYs with the developments on Fraser and there's this

Quote:

Taggart, in winning the Liberal nomination, had said her “family’s life is in the riding,” though she lives one block outside of it, but Davies, on Wednesday, zeroed in on that fact.

“There is a real suspicion among people who live in the riding when someone from the outside parachutes in. Out of riding, out of touch.”

How is someone living a block outside it "parachuting"

djmk · #14 Posted **Sep 13, 2019, 1:19 AM**

Burnaby North - Seymour riding is going to be an interesting riding. This riding is literally and figuratively ground zero for that pipeline.

Its a new riding where north van would vote conservative and burnaby would vote NDP. The liberals won last time with Terry Beech but nobody seems happy.

The conservative candidate is a nobody and I doubt she would win
Sven Robinson is making a come back and will have serious traction in burnaby
And the green party is a local to north van (her mom died in that landslide) and has a doctorate from SFU in astro physics.

and offhand, I have never heard so many people around me talking about the greens. Who knows, maybe it's their time.

WarrenC12 · #15 Posted **Sep 13, 2019, 3:27 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tetsuo

I think both internal Liberal and NDP polling is showing Vancouver Kingsway to be competitive, Trudeau started and introduced yesterday.

Meanwhile Don Davies has gone to riling up NIMBYs with the developments on Fraser and there's this

How is someone living a block outside it "parachuting"

That riding has been an NDP stronghold for a long time, but Davies is showing himself to be completely tone deaf with his comments to Vancouver City council, and now he appears to be taking meaningless shots at Taggart.

Perhaps he's been living in his own bubble too long and is past his due date.

ssiguy · #16 Posted **Sep 13, 2019, 6:31 PM**

I don't think Svend- I never saw a microphone I didn't like Robinson -has any impact anymore. He was a gay rights activist in his day and now that's yesterday's news. His little theft of a ring hasn't helped and he is trying in a seat that is much more diverse in it's political leanings than it use to be.

Klazu · #17 Posted **Oct 6, 2019, 3:59 AM**

I will be casting my very first vote as a Canadian next week. There are no great viable options in the Canadian politics but looking forward to doing my part to dethrone corrupted Trudeau.

bluefox · #18 Posted **Oct 6, 2019, 7:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I don't think Svend- I never saw a microphone I didn't like Robinson -has any impact anymore. He was a gay rights activist in his day and now that's yesterday's news. His little theft of a ring hasn't helped and he is trying in a seat that is much more diverse in it's political leanings than it use to be.

Do you really think most voters will remember/care about the ring incident at this point? I'm not sure it'll be an issue. It hasn't even really come up yet from what I can see. His opponents could have used that to attack him already and it doesn't seem like they have. In all seriousness I think most people in BNS are probably weighing their vote based on Trans Mountain and not on a stolen ring.

I think to downplay his activist credentials is a mistake; voters by and large do like people who they feel might come to their corner when they're in need. One thing the NDP is good at is grooming that stable of activists-turned-politicians who can then campaign effectively and continue that narrative of being on your side in an election. And you can never underestimate the power of name recognition. Why do you think Joe Biden has such a healthy lead south of the border? It's not really his policies that are exciting Democrats.

Beech is probably one of those MPs from the 2015 class most on the bubble this time as Liberal support recedes slightly in the province. He was largely a beneficiary of a three-way race last time (Lib 37%, NDP 29%, CPC 27%) running against two rather high-profile opponents.

Plus, with Leung now turfed but still on the ballot, that could present an interesting dynamic on election night. Beech was already in for a tough fight but polling showing the NDP and PPC are the beneficiaries of second choice support from Conservative voters and it having previously been an NDP-held seat, I think we would be remiss not to say it's now Svend's race to lose.

Migrant_Coconut · #19 Posted **Oct 7, 2019, 5:29 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by bluefox

Why do you think Joe Biden has such a healthy lead south of the border? It's not really his policies that are exciting Democrats.

Biden's slipping though - probably wasn't the best idea to run solely on "nothing will fundamentally change" and "hey, did I mention that I was Obama's VP?"

Tetsuo · #20 Posted **Oct 8, 2019, 7:16 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Biden's slipping though - probably wasn't the best idea to run solely on "nothing will fundamentally change" and "hey, did I mention that I was Obama's VP?"

It's often overlooked, but Biden is HUGE with African Americans.

The lower turnout this election is going to hurt the Liberals, the younger crowd isn't as hyped as 2015 with the WEED strategy helping the Liberals greatly in many seats.

The suburban Metro Van ridings especially, Cloverdale and the Ridge

I think The Liberals will manage to hold onto White Rock and Delta due to strong MP candidates.