Interesting article in the London Free Press today:
Tories vulnerable in London West: prof
DECISION 2011: ED HOLDER FACING CHALLENGES ON HUSTINGS
By RANDY RICHMOND, THE LONDON FREE PRESS
http://www.lfpress.com/news/london/2.../17945671.html
Hundreds of jobs at stake. A teen kicked out of a rally. Refusal to attend a health-care debate.
The challenges facing federal election Conservative candidates in London mirror a bumpy start to a national campaign that, left uncorrected, could see Stephen Harper in trouble and one city riding switch MPs, says a political scientist.
"Single issues, single events are not likely on their own to make a difference," said the University of Western Ontario's Paul Nesbitt- Larking.
But a series of issues, plus a potential change in Ontario voting patterns could spell trouble for the Conservatives, he said.
"Once you string three, four, five, six of these things together people begin to get a narrative and it is not the narrative the Conservatives want if they want to win a majority."
If there's a London riding where the local issues and national trends might play out, it's London West, he added, "In a sense, all three ridings are in play, but I think the energy, the effort has been put into London West by the two national parties," Nesbitt-Larking said.
Liberal Glen Pearson, MP in the last Parliament, is expected to keep his seat in London- North-Fanshawe and NDP Irene Mathyssen the same in London- Fanshawe, he said.
But Conservative Ed Holder won by only 2,000 votes in the 2008 election in London West, a riding that has had its share of swings over the years.
Holder did not return a request for an interview Friday.
Here's a look at the issues, local and national, making the race between him, Liberal Doug Ferguson, New Democrat Peter Ferguson, and Green party candidate Brad Corbett a lively one.
Diamond Aircraft
The company is located in London-North-Fanshawe, but Conservative candidates across the city felt the heat after the Liberals alerted the media to a $35-million loan request held up by the Harper government. Diamond laid off 213 workers over uncertainty because of the loan.
Then, last Friday, the story heated up even more when Holder said Diamond owner Christian Dries has threatened to shutter the plant if the loan doesn't come through. Dries denied making the threat.
The Facebook fiasco
Who would have thought a London teen getting her photo taken with Ignatieff could derail, for a week at least, the Harper campaign?
Awish Aslam was turfed from a Stephen Harper rally a week ago after organizers saw her Facebook photo, taken a few days earlier, with the Liberal leader.
Her story, first reported in The Free Press, exploded on the campaign trail where reporters had already been grumbling about the Harper campaign's fortress-like mentality.
A series of run-ins with students has left the impression Harper is out of touch and trying to clamp down on democratic debate, Nesbitt-Larking said.
"To the extent they continue to shun and treat people with suspicion, the Conservatives are going to be in trouble," he said.
At a rally in Hamilton recently, Conservative organizers changed their minds and let members of a student get out and vote rally inside a campaign function.
"I think that was a very wise decision," Nesbitt-Larking said.
The health-care debate
Holder has refused to join an April 20 debate on health care by the London Health Coalition. According to a coalition news release, Holder replied by saying health care is not a federal issue.
"I think it was tactical error not to attend that," Nesbitt-Larking said. "It is another example of a party . . . that feels it is doing everything right already and doesn't want to listen."
Strategic voting & the NDP
Polls are showing Ontario voters are starting to leave the NDP and Green party to support the Liberals, Nesbitt-Larking said.
At the end of March, New Democrat candidate Ryan Dolby shocked his party by withdrawing from the race in Elgin-Middlesex- London and throwing his support behind the Liberals.
The Tories said it was an example of the Liberals and NDP wanting to create a coalition.
The issue died, but it could be a sign some in Ontario are willing to do what it takes to keep Harper out, Nesbitt-Larking said.
Liberal strength
"There was a sense in the last election a dispirited Liberal electorate just didn't show up," Nesbitt- Larking said. "The question is will they come back?"
If the Liberals show up in force, and NDP supporters switch their vote, London West could go back to become a Liberal seat, he said.
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