Winnipeg Census: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

[Only The Lonely..]

Winnipeg: We're No. 9 (from 8th)

Wed Mar 14 2007 | Winnipeg Free Press Editorial

THERE were scant references to Winnipeg and Manitoba in the reams of census-related copy moving on the news wires on Tuesday.
Which was not entirely disappointing -- they are "news" wires, after all, and there was no good news or bad news of interest to the rest of Canada about the mediocre performance posted by Manitoba in the last census period, 2001 to 2006.

The big story, here, of course, is symbolic -- we have undoubtedly slipped to ninth place behind Hamilton among Canada's 33 metropolitan areas. As of census day last May, Hamilton had 1,757 fewer residents than Winnipeg, but with a growth rate of 4.6 per cent, twice the rate in Winnipeg's, Hamilton was on track to eclipse Winnipeg by now. There was a time when Winnipeg ranked fourth in Canada, a time when whatever the census found about Manitoba was news to the rest of Canada, but clearly those times are not these times.

That is not to say they never will be again. With an economic development strategy that made Winnipeg and Manitoba attractive to the rest of Canada, and not just to immigrants, that could change. Unfortunately, there is little evidence that the Doer government -- after seven years of failing to find a winning formula and instead relying ever more on transfers from Ottawa to pay our bills -- will find it any time soon.

On Tuesday, in fact, Competitiveness Minister Scott Smith was reduced to finding silver linings in the cloud cover. Manitoba's population growth of 2.2 per cent was fifth among provinces, he crowed , neglecting that fifth is less than the average of 5.4 per cent, is better only than the Maritime provinces and Saskatchewan and that Winnipeg was the 27th slowest growing of 33 metropolitan areas. More telling, however, was the thank-you he sent to Manitobans for completing the census surveys and thus ensuring the Doer government will be able to squeeze every possible penny out of the new federal transfer-payment program that is expected to be unveiled in the federal budget on Monday.

We need more than boosterism from our minister of competitiveness -- we need a strategy to compete with the rest of Canada, one that can restore Winnipeg's pride of place among cities and Manitoba's pride of place among provinces. As this newspaper has argued repeatedly, the province should act on economist John McCallum's advice and determine why it is that Manitoba is losing its market share of people to other parts of Canada. Until we know, we can't turn it around. We can only continue to make no news of interest to the rest of Canada

[Only The Lonely..]

Census: Urban sprawl slows down, statistics find
City's growth not as hot as others

Wed Mar 14 2007

By Mary Agnes Welch

THE rate of urban sprawl seems to be slowing, according to the 2006 Statistics Canada census, meaning fewer people are fleeing Winnipeg to move to surrounding bedroom communities.
Places like East St. Paul and Oakbank are still growing at a much faster rate than Winnipeg, just not quite as fast as they were a decade ago. That, plus Winnipeg's respectable growth rate, is good news.

"I see a lot of positive things happening in Winnipeg," said Mayor Sam Katz. "We have growth, record-setting house sales, booming retail, the housing industry is taking off, unemployment is down."

Now for the bad news: Winnipeg and its bedroom communities grew by 2.7 per cent -- decent for a slow-growth town, but not nearly as fast as most other Canadian cities. At this rate, Hamilton will soon bump Winnipeg from its spot as the eighth-largest urban centre, if it hasn't already.

According to the 2006 data, Steeltown was just 1,700 people short of matching Winnipeg's population in 2006. If Hamilton's 4.6 per cent growth rate continues, it will easily dwarf Winnipeg when the next batch of census questionnaires begin appearing in Canadian mailboxes in 2011.

But statisticians caution against such dire forecasts, saying it's foolish to make predictions when many factors are in flux.
Provincial statistician Wilf Falk said immigration is driving growth all over Canada, but few places more so than in Manitoba. If the province boosts immigration to 20,000 by 2016 -- the latest goal -- that could keep Winnipeg competitive with Hamilton, since the majority of new Manitobans remain in the capital city.

Falk said there's no telling how many rural residents might retire to Winnipeg or come from First Nations communities. And, there's no telling what could happen to Hamilton's economy, which relies heavily on manufacturing.

Statistics Canada's Manitoba expert Milana Karaganis agreed, saying she won't be able to tell exactly what's spurring growth in Winnipeg or Hamilton until the next few batches of census tables are released. There's no up-to-date information yet on how old Winnipeg's population is, how many young families there are or what the birthrate might be.

Meanwhile, booming bedroom communities such as Springfield, MacDonald and West St. Paul aren't seeing quite the growth the last census brought them. That means Winnipeg is doing a little better at hanging onto its tax base, encouraging more people to live within the Perimeter.

East St. Paul, whose cheap taxes and high-end housing developments often annoy members of Winnipeg's city council, grew just 14 per cent between 2001 and 2006. That's a huge number, but not quite as impressive as the nearly 20 per cent growth in the late 1990s.

Headingley is the anomaly. On the surface, it appears Headingley is booming: a 43 per cent increase to 2,726 people, compared to 1,907 residents five years ago.

But that includes about 500 new inmates at Headingley Correctional Institute, explained Reeve Wilf Taillieu. The penitentiary has undergone a major building expansion in the past five years.

Still, the municipality has enjoyed steady growth since the former Filmon government agreed to subsidize a water and sewer system for the area, which was built in 1999. Headingley's population has increased 15 per cent since 2001, not including the penitentiary. "My council is very restrictive on development. We don't want to see the route of some other municipalities that have blown up and can't maintain their services," Taillieu said.

-- With files from Bill Redekop and Aldo Santin

maryagnes.welch@freepress.mb.ca


Slowing Sprawl


Winnipeg's bedroom communities are growing, but not as fast as they used to. Figures show growth from 2001 to 2006, with growth from 1996-2001 in brackets


Rural Municipality of West St. Paul:

6.7% (9.8%)


RM of East St. Paul

13.8% (19.3%)


RM of Springfield

(includes Oakbank)

3.1% (3.6%)

RM of Tache

(includes Lorette)

5.9% (3.7%)


RM of MacDonald

6.3% (8.6%)


Stonewall 9.1% (8.8%)


Canada's Big Cities


2006 populations of the biggest census metropolitan areas and how much they've grown since 2001.


Toronto 5,113,149, 9.2%

Montreal 3,635,571, 5.3%

Vancouver 2,116,581, 6.5% Ottawa-Gatineau 1,130,761, 5.9%

Calgary 1,079,310, 13.4%

Edmonton 1,034,945, 10.4%

Quebec 715,515, 4.2%

Winnipeg 694,668, 2.7%

Hamilton 692,911, 4.6%

London 457,720, 5.1%

Kitchener 451,235, 8.9%

St. Catharines-Niagara 390,317, 3.5% Halifax 372,858, 3.8%

Oshawa 330,594, 11.6%

[Only The Lonely..]

Census: Spence neighbourhood a census success story

Wed Mar 14 2007

By Mary Agnes Welch



THE Spence neighbourhood, once the symbol of Winnipeg's urban decay, is a census success story.
The neighbourhood's population has grown by a 12 per cent since 2001. That makes it the only Winnipeg neighbourhood not on the far-flung fringes to grow more than 10 per cent. On Statistic Canada's census maps released yesterday, it's a little oasis in a city where most neighbourhoods are growing slowly, if at all.

"When we were talking about where to move or where to build, we decided we wanted to be able to have an impact on a neighbourhood," said teacher Owen Bradshaw, who moved with his wife Carolyn Minor to Spence Street last summer.

They love it that so much is within walking distance -- ethnic food on Sargent Avenue, the Millennium Library, downtown theatres and the King's Head pub. And they appreciate the diversity.

"We've got neighbours from Africa, Vietnam, Portugal, some who have been here for a long time and some who are new arrivals," Bradshaw said.

New immigrants, as well as students at the University of Manitoba, could account for the influx of people, nearly 500 over the last five years, said Statistics Canada's Milana Karaganis. Immigration is driving Manitoba's population growth, and many new Canadians set up house first in the city's core.
Maggie Friesen, president of the Spence Neighbourhood Association and long-time resident of the neighbourhood, said she was a little surprised to hear the good news buried in the 2006 census.

"We have so many buildings still empty, especially some of the apartment blocks. That's the last frontier for us," she said.

But she said the area, thanks to an uncommonly active residents' association and a series of government housing programs, has made a significant improvement over the last several years. There are few boarded-up homes and vacant lots left in the area, and the population has become much more stable.

maryagnes.welch@freepre.mb.ca

[Only The Lonely..]

Census: Immigration saves the day:
Chief cause of population growth Province's nominee program lauded

Wed Mar 14 2007 | By Mia Rabson | Winnipeg Free Press

KIRO Stojcevski uprooted his wife and twin sons from their home in Macedonia in 2003 to carve out a better life in Canada.
The family chose to settle in Winnipeg, despite having relatives in Toronto, for one simple reason: "Manitoba had the best immigration program," Stojcevski said.

That immigration strategy, known as the Manitoba Provincial Immigration Nominee Program, is credited as the main reason Manitoba's population grew by 2.6 per cent in the first half of this decade, according to Statistics Canada's 2006 census.

The agency released the first instalment of figures from that census Tuesday, showing that since 2001, Manitoba's population is up 28,000 people to 1,148,401. The growth is due almost exclusively to the increase in international immigration.

More than 41,000 immigrants settled in Manitoba between 2001 and 2006, and almost 80 per cent of them have stayed here. Those immigrants have offset the net loss of more than 30,000 Manitobans who moved to other provinces in that time frame.

Were it not for immigration, Manitoba would likely be in Saskatchewan's position, one of only two provinces whose population declined.
While Saskatchewan is losing only slightly more people to other provinces than Manitoba, its immigration figures pale in comparison. From 2001 to 2006, less than 12,000 new immigrants settled in Saskatchewan.

B.C., Ontario and Quebec all outpaced Manitoba's growth significantly. And booming Alberta grew four times as quickly as we did.

In fact, Alberta grew by more people in the last five years than Manitoba grew in the last five decades.

Manitoba's growth is also less than half of Canada's growth as a whole, which means Manitoba's share of the country's population is slipping.

Our chunk of Canada's population dropped from 4.4 per cent in 1976, to 3.8 per cent in 1996, and was down to 3.6 per cent in 2006.

Federal transfer payments for things such as health care and education are based on population, so a declining portion could impact how much money flows our way down the road.

Immigration Minister Nancy Allan was happy to brag about the success of the nominee program yesterday, which hit its goal of bringing in 10,000 new immigrants a year in 2006.

"Isn't it awesome," Allan crowed. "We're really the star program in Canada." She said the program was designed to go after the individual needs of various groups, rather than taking a one-size-fits-all approach.

Tory immigration critic Ron Schuler said the NDP should be congratulated for taking the nominee program, created by the Filmon government, and making it work really well.

But he said more needs to be done beyond just immigration.

"(The nominee program) was never meant to be the sole engine for growth."

Manitoba has to make young people want to stay here and want to move here as well, Schuler said.

Stojcevski says his hope of a better life has come true. He found a job immediately at the agriculture equipment manufacturing company Canadian Tool and Die, and has worked his way up to being the human resources manager.

His wife found a job as an optician. They bought a house in River Park South, and their twin 14-year-old boys are in a good school.

Life in Macedonia was good, says Stojcevski, but life in Manitoba is much, much better.

"Manitoba is a great place to live and is really friendly," he said. "We couldn't have succeeded here without Manitobans helping us." mia.rabson@freepress.mb.ca


What is the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Immigration Program for Business?


The immigration program allows Manitoba to seek out and grant approval to immigrants to help fill the province's labour needs. The program mainly looks for skilled workers who have the training, experience and language skills to find a job in Manitoba and contribute to the provincial economy.

It also allows the provincial government to take some control over immigration numbers, despite immigration being within the jurisdiction of the federal government.

In 2006, two of three immigrants arriving in Manitoba came through the nominee program. It has become the envy of other provinces, and officials from Alberta, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland have visited Manitoba in the hopes of replicating the program.

Saskatchewan even poached one of Manitoba's program officials last year.



Manitoba

fast facts


* Manitoba is the 5th biggest province in Canada by population.

* Winnipeg is the 8th biggest city in Canada by population.

* Manitoba has nine cities. Five of them grew (Winnipeg, Steinbach, Thompson, Brandon, Winkler), while the rest got smaller (Dauphin, Flin Flon, Portage la Prairie, Selkirk).

* Two in every three Manitobans live in one of those nine cities. Manitoba's population: 1,148,401

Manitoba's population growth since 2001: 2.6 per cent

Manitoba's population growth 1996-2001: 0.5 per cent


By the

numbers


41,000

Number of new immigrants to Manitoba since 2001

79,018

Number of Canadians who moved into Manitoba since 2001*


109,742

Number of Manitobans who moved away since 2001*


*includes period from Jan. 1, 2001 to Sept. 30, 2006

[Greco Roman]

Ok. So we keep hearing stories like these time and time again, and yet the provincial and civic governments are as complacent as ever in their attitute that "Manitoba is BOOMING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!". I'm sick to death of Doer that Manitoba is experiencing growth like we haven't seen in years. Well, that large growth is down-right embarrasing in comparison with other areas of Canada, and I don't just mean Albeta. I don't get how a government can be so extatic of this kind of below-average performance. I really hate Doer and his "feel good" tactics.

[Only The Lonely..]

The truly sad part is Doer will rule us like a King for years to come, because there simply isn't any opposition.

The NDP will be the death of this place.

[rgalston]

Originally Posted by Only The Lonely..

Census: Urban sprawl slows down, statistics find
City's growth not as hot as others

Census: Spence neighbourhood a census success story

The NDP should make a TV commercial about this...


Anyway, it looks like a number of other central neighborhoods experienced a population increase: West Broadway; east Wolseley, Osborne Village east of Osborne; east Exchange/South Point Douglas; Central Park; much of Centennial and the North End

Net population losers included: west Exchange District; North Point Douglas; Luxton; Elmwood; Broadway-Assinaboine; the Village west of Osborne; west Wolseley; St. Matthews; Crescentwood

Map can be downloaded here:
http://geodepot.statcan.ca/Diss2006/...ubmit=Download

[Only The Lonely..]

Originally Posted by rgalston

The NDP should make a TV commercial about this...


Anyway, it looks like a number of other central neighborhoods experienced a population increase: West Broadway; east Wolseley, Osborne Village east of Osborne; east Exchange/South Point Douglas; Central Park; much of Centennial and the North End

Net population losers included: west Exchange District; North Point Douglas; Luxton; Elmwood; Broadway-Assinaboine; the Village west of Osborne; west Wolseley; St. Matthews; Crescentwood

Map can be downloaded here:
http://geodepot.statcan.ca/Diss2006/...ubmit=Download

Your right..

I wish the Free Press spent more time researching some of these Inner City successes. I see more and more houses being fixed up all the time along Spence.

The place still has a long way to go, but its getting there.

[ILYR]

Originally Posted by Only The Lonely..

Manitoba's population growth since 2001: 2.6 per cent

Manitoba's population growth 1996-2001: 0.5 per cent

Well it interesting to see that from 2001 - 2006, the same period that Alberta has seen historically its greatest period of growth, that Manitoba and Winnipeg grew, as opposed to 1996-2001 when Alberta's growth was moderate compared to now. So one could conclude that Manitoba's ecomomy is improving, but is hampered by the outflow to Alberta (mainly). Does the data suggest that we are on an upward swing? I guess we'll have to wait another 5 years.

[IntotheWest]

I'm just going to say that I think Winnipegers focus too much on that "symbolic" slip from 8th to 9th - and previously at one point #4. Really, we're talking a couple 100k difference between that and 4,5,6 place.

I know us forumers eye these stats like its candy, but I think the fact Winnipegers dwell on it (at least while the census comes out) is too bad. It is growing, and its still a great place to work/live/play. I think more focus should be put on the good stuff, and not slipping from "8th to 9th".

It is unfortunate about Doer...though he is NDP, I had hoped years ago he was more a "centered" NDP and not too far left. The older population in the Peg keeps voting them in though.

[drew]

It's kind of ironic that most people blame the NDP for Manitoba's population growth woes - when it is the immigrant nomination program they brought in - that is the main reason Manitoba isn't still growing at 0.5%.

[Greco Roman]

Originally Posted by IntotheWest

I'm just going to say that I think Winnipegers focus too much on that "symbolic" slip from 8th to 9th - and previously at one point #4. Really, we're talking a couple 100k difference between that and 4,5,6 place.

I know us forumers eye these stats like its candy, but I think the fact Winnipegers dwell on it (at least while the census comes out) is too bad. It is growing, and its still a great place to work/live/play. I think more focus should be put on the good stuff, and not slipping from "8th to 9th".

Well, I'm sure if Calgary were in this position, there would be moaning and groaning about how devastated the city is with losing stature. I know for a fact that Calgary prides itself for the tremendous population growth, and it constantly tooting their horn about how much pride they have in their city that is experiencing the wonderful boom times.

I've learned that it is always easier to tell those who arn't as well off as yourself that things aren't that bad and to cheer up.

[supai]

Well it seems to me that Winnipeg is posting a much better growth rate than the previous census. It is all a matter of perspective on how you view it. I see Winnipeg as a stable growing city with an improving economy. I am sure the next five years bodes well for the Winnipeg.

There is not many Cities in Canada over 500,000. Winnipeg is an important City in an excellent location with an abundance of opportunity.

[Only The Lonely..]

Originally Posted by drew

It's kind of ironic that most people blame the NDP for Manitoba's population growth woes - when it is the immigrant nomination program they brought in - that is the main reason Manitoba isn't still growing at 0.5%.

I think what people (like myself) are most upset about is the fact that the NDP keeps putting their head in the sand when it comes to the large number of young university educated Manitobans who are leaving the province.


Where Winnipeg is making population gains is in demographics that offer little to the city's long term economic viability. The city has an increasing aboriginal population that is largely poor, and unskilled as far as the labour force is concerned. In addition, we also seem to be especially adapt at pulling in unskilled immigrant labour from third world countries.

These people have limited opportunties for advancement at best, and hence will never have a lot of buying power as consumers.

So my problem occurs when the NDP tells me that 20,000 unskilled immigrants arriving is a good trade off for the 15,000 young educated Manitobans who left.

[Daver]

Originally Posted by Albertaboy

Well, I'm sure if Calgary were in this position, there would be moaning and groaning about how devastated the city is with losing stature. I know for a fact that Calgary prides itself for the tremendous population growth, and it constantly tooting their horn about how much pride they have in their city that is experiencing the wonderful boom times.

I've learned that it is always easier to tell those who arn't as well off as yourself that things aren't that bad and to cheer up.

Winnipeg should pride itself in the fact that it has grown and done better than it's previous year of statistics. Calgary, is a cinderella city in terms of growth. yes there is pride, as any city would have in it's position and by rights it should after experiancing bust times, aswell. Calgary's seen it all, good and bad.

If you want a peace of the pie, then come and get it!!

[The Jabroni]

It's too bad for Winnipeg slowly drifting away off the top 10, with this NDP government doing jack. Well in any case, I guess we should embrace on what we have. I mean, with the Spence St. thing, that's good.

No matter what happens, good or bad, Winnipeg will grow. I don't care if it's at 0.1% or 21%. As long as it's growing, it's good.

[drew]

Originally Posted by Only The Lonely..

In addition, we also seem to be especially adapt at pulling in unskilled immigrant labour from third world countries.

These people have limited opportunties for advancement at best, and hence will never have a lot of buying power as consumers.

Kind of like all those Eastern European immigrants that flooded this city earlier in the 20th century 'eh? I guess they didn't amount to much either...?

I would argue it is the children of immigrant families that are usually those who strive harder in school - under pressure from parents who moved here to give their kids better opportunities.

Winnipeg is essentially a last pick location for born and bred Canadians. Realistically, no change in provincial governments from NDP to PC to Liberal for the next twenty years is going to change this fact. If we have to go outside our borders to attract new citizens - great. The more people we get choosing to move here for a better life from overseas, and the less we rely on "fair-weather" interprovincial migrants - the better this city is in the long run I'd say.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by Only The Lonely..

In addition, we also seem to be especially adapt at pulling in unskilled immigrant labour from third world countries.

These people have limited opportunties for advancement at best, and hence will never have a lot of buying power as consumers.

So my problem occurs when the NDP tells me that 20,000 unskilled immigrants arriving is a good trade off for the 15,000 young educated Manitobans who left.

i am not sure where you get this from.....the overwhelming majority of immigrants are from the phillipines and germany....none of these people are unskilled labourers....most of them live in suburban winnipeg in middle class neighbourhoods and contribute as much as anyone else...we have hired two phillipino architects in the last couple of years and they are great....we have also hired an argentinian architect who used the nominee programme to come here.

your misconception that our immigrants are refugees is way off the mark....there are strict requirements to emmigrate to manitoba....sure we take some refugees...but we should.

[trueviking]

as a matter of fact...one of the phillipino architects we hired is about 30 years old...he was sponsored here by relatives 3 years ago....he worked like a dog for 2 years, in our office all day and 4 hours a night at 7/11 so he could raise the money that the province requires sponsors to have before he could bring his wife to winnipeg too....they just had their first kid and bought a nice little house in river heights.

an argentinian architect that we hired was sponsored by his synnagogue, he worked for us for a year and then went on to become the south american regional director for willmar windows....

[IntotheWest]

^When I went back in 03/04 for a project, one of my colleagues flying in was a phillipino living in OC, SoCal...once I showed him the city over the first few weeks were there, he was absolutely shocked (and pleased to see) the size of Winnipeg's filipino community. Of course, these folks that had never been to Canada before left about a year later very impressed with Winnipeg (okay, they didn't like January :-) It's great to see the immigration into Winnipeg.

Albertaboy - not sure what your slant is. Not everyone in Calgary looks down on the Peg. Not only did I spend 26 years there (plus an extra year and a bit after for a project), most of my family and best friends still live there. Winnipeg is holding it's own, and will continue to grow - maybe at a slower rate, but still grow and evolve. I (like several other forumers from Winnipeg) like to participate, and follow what is happening in Winnipeg - and for once, I'd like to do it without a trace of "Calgary" popping up in the posts...