JERSEY CITY | PATH Train Ridership Growing Rapidly

[C.]

According to reports from the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, PATH ridership is rising rapidly this year.

Month Avg. Weekday %
Jan-15 227,561
Feb-15 245,222 7.76%
Mar-15 250,446 2.13%
Apr-15 258,351 3.16%
May-15 264,326 2.31%
Jun-15 266,647 0.88%

Is the PATH system on track for a record year? In the past, fare increases hampered ridership growth. 2012 was on track for a record year until Hurricane Sandy shut down the system for a month.

[k1052]

PATH capacity is supposed to be 240K ppd…and it's climbing out past 265K. Only another 25K to go before it eats all the extra capacity the new signal system is supposed to add sometime in 2018. Must be a little crowded presently.

I hope the PA has options on a lot of ferries in case the North River tunnels can't hold out.

[miketoronto]

Originally Posted by k1052

PATH capacity is supposed to be 240K ppd…and it's climbing out past 265K. Only another 25K to go before it eats all the extra capacity the new signal system is supposed to add sometime in 2018. Must be a little crowded presently.

I hope the PA has options on a lot of ferries in case the North River tunnels can't hold out.

PATH is hardly near capacity, and carried way more people in the 1920's (in excess of over 310,000 riders a day or more).

[C.]

Originally Posted by miketoronto

PATH is hardly near capacity, and carried way more people in the 1920's (in excess of over 310,000 riders a day or more).

From what I understand, factories and warehouses on the west side of Manhattan had shifts around the clock. Employees would ride the train into the city from New Jersey at all times of day and night. Today, the trains still run 24 hours, but the busiest times are during the morning and afternoon rush hours (7-9am and 4-6pm) periods. When we talk about system capacity, it's usually in reference to these peak periods.

The average count for turnstile entries in June, between 8-9am, was 41,043. This is well above capacity. The hourly peak ridership back in 1920s was nowhere near as high. Instead, ridership levels were more consistent throughout the day.

Here is a nifty report, which breaks down the hourly counts for each station: http://www.panynj.gov/path/pdf/2015-...ship_6_Jun.pdf

[C.]

Originally Posted by k1052

PATH capacity is supposed to be 240K ppd…and it's climbing out past 265K. Only another 25K to go before it eats all the extra capacity the new signal system is supposed to add sometime in 2018. Must be a little crowded presently.

I hope the PA has options on a lot of ferries in case the North River tunnels can't hold out.

It will be interesting to see how much busiest it gets once the World Trade Center complex is finally built out and fully occupied. It might just be my imagination, but it feels like there are a lot of tourists lately taking the PATH to the WTC memorial and museum.

[C.]

Originally Posted by miketoronto

PATH is hardly near capacity...

This is an interesting statement to make and tells me you know little to nothing about PATH. If you believe it's nowhere near capacity, you really ought to ride the system during rush hour and report back. It's not uncommon to be unable to squeeze on a train at Grove Street Station during the morning rush. You may also be left standing on the platforms at the 14th, 9th, Christopher, or WTC stations during the evenings.

[Nouvellecosse]

Mike is going by the daily ridership stats, but people sometimes look at daily or yearly stats and forget to examine the distribution of the ridership. It may be possible for a system to carry more riders per day than it is currently, but it may not be possible for it to carry more riders per hour in a particular direction than it is during certain parts of the day. Perhaps there weren't as many people commuting into and out of town for work back then making the rush hour of yesteryear less crowded, but there were more people making the trip for other reasons like shopping at department stores, taking in entertainment, etc. so the system was more consistently busy throughout the day.

Or perhaps it was something as simple as that there was more general transportation demand on PATH in the 1920s since the Holland tunnel didn't open until 1927 and the Lincoln tunnel in the 1930s. So that could be another reason why it may have been used more by non-commuters throughout the day. Was there any drop in riderhip after the tunnels opened?

[k1052]

Originally Posted by CIA

It will be interesting to see how much busiest it gets once the World Trade Center complex is finally built out and fully occupied. It might just be my imagination, but it feels like there are a lot of tourists lately taking the PATH to the WTC memorial and museum.

I don't think it's your imagination. Though it will be relatively easy to boost WTC line capacity once the work at Harrison and Grove is done so they can run 10 car trains. Journal Square-33rd is basically screwed though for the foreseeable future.

[Hamilton]

Originally Posted by CIA

According to reports from the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, PATH ridership is rising rapidly this year.

Sorry, but your analysis is flawed. You're comparing apples to oranges by looking at month-over-month growth. Ridership always grows between January and June, as the weather gets nicer and people use the system more to go out and go on trips. These sorts of analyses should always take seasonality into account: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonality

Weekday ridership has only grown 2.2% year-to-date this year. Here's the true year-over-year growth for the system by month:

Weekday Ridership:
Jan -1.6%
Feb 5.2%
Mar 0.9%
Apr 2.2%
May 3.6%
Jun 3.0%
YTD: 2.2%

Total Ridership:
Jan: -4.5%
Feb: 2.2%
Mar: 3.4%
Apr: 3.0%
May: 1.4%
Jun: 5.9%
YTD: 2.0%

(Sources: http://www.panynj.gov/path/pdf/path-...eport-2014.pdf , http://www.panynj.gov/path/pdf/2015-...hip-Report.pdf )

Not quite as dramatic as the numbers you provided, but solid growth nonetheless.

[C.]

Originally Posted by Hamilton

Sorry, but your analysis is flawed. You're comparing apples to oranges by looking at month-over-month growth. Ridership always grows between January and June, as the weather gets nicer and people use the system more to go out and go on trips. These sorts of analyses should always take seasonality into account: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonality

Weekday ridership has only grown 2.2% year-to-date this year. Here's the true year-over-year growth for the system by month:

Weekday Ridership:
Jan -1.6%
Feb 5.2%
Mar 0.9%
Apr 2.2%
May 3.6%
Jun 3.0%
YTD: 2.2%

Total Ridership:
Jan: -4.5%
Feb: 2.2%
Mar: 3.4%
Apr: 3.0%
May: 1.4%
Jun: 5.9%
YTD: 2.0%

(Sources: http://www.panynj.gov/path/pdf/path-...eport-2014.pdf , http://www.panynj.gov/path/pdf/2015-...hip-Report.pdf )

Not quite as dramatic as the numbers you provided, but solid growth nonetheless.

I now see the error of my ways. Thanks!

[C.]

PATH nearly hit an all time high in September with an average weekday ridership of 269,025 for the month. This is the fourth highest month on record, and the highest since October 2011. The record is 270,971. The Pope's visit to New York likely played a role in the high numbers, so we'll have to see continues. YTD averages 252,652. Last year averaged 249,900. Last September averaged 258,150.

[C.]

Weekday Ridership:
Jan -1.6%
Feb 5.2%
Mar 0.9%
Apr 2.2%
May 3.6%
Jun 3.0%
Jul 1.4%
Aug 3.6%
Sep 4.2%

Total Ridership:
Jan: -4.5%
Feb: 2.2%
Mar: 3.4%
Apr: 3.0%
May: 1.4%
Jun: 5.9%
Jul: 4.8%
Aug: 5.3%
Sep: 5.5%

Originally Posted by Hamilton

Sorry, but your analysis is flawed. You're comparing apples to oranges by looking at month-over-month growth. Ridership always grows between January and June, as the weather gets nicer and people use the system more to go out and go on trips. These sorts of analyses should always take seasonality into account: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonality

Weekday ridership has only grown 2.2% year-to-date this year. Here's the true year-over-year growth for the system by month:

Weekday Ridership:
Jan -1.6%
Feb 5.2%
Mar 0.9%
Apr 2.2%
May 3.6%
Jun 3.0%
YTD: 2.2%

Total Ridership:
Jan: -4.5%
Feb: 2.2%
Mar: 3.4%
Apr: 3.0%
May: 1.4%
Jun: 5.9%
YTD: 2.0%

(Sources: http://www.panynj.gov/path/pdf/path-...eport-2014.pdf , http://www.panynj.gov/path/pdf/2015-...hip-Report.pdf )

Not quite as dramatic as the numbers you provided, but solid growth nonetheless.

[drumz0rz]

Developers are building high rise condos and rentals as fast as the land becomes available and visionary projects are being pitched for every vacant parking lot and brown field near the water. Meanwhile the PATH continues to chug along barely keeping up service while raising the fares every few months and threatening less trains on the nights and weekends.

I actually had a chance to speak with the head of the Jersey City planning board and voiced my concern with the rapid expansion of downtown Jersey City and the capacity of the PATH. His only response was that the Port Authority have a knack for maintaining service just enough to meet demand, and that their signal modernization project should help greatly.

I think the ultimate issue with the PATH is the lack of Express service by virtue of single track through the system. If it were possible to run express trains from 33rd to Newport, or from Journal Square to WTC, you'd see population grow rapidly along all stops of the lines as the farther destinations could skip the middle stops and those stops typically relegated to squeezing into already over crowded trains would have ample room to grow. Of course, there is no way to realistically add Express to the PATH short of digging an entire new system, so perhaps the best next step would be digging a third tube between caisson 3 (NJ) and Christopher street allowing increased capacity across the river between HOB and JSQ lines.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by drumz0rz

Of course, there is no way to realistically add Express to the PATH short of digging an entire new system, so perhaps the best next step would be digging a third tube between caisson 3 (NJ) and Christopher street allowing increased capacity across the river between HOB and JSQ lines.

That's actually not a bad idea.

At some point they will have to expand PATH. The platform/train extensions will help, the increased frequency will help, but at some point they will need another route through JC to Manhattan.

[scalziand]

It'd be nice if PATH could eat the Bayonne Branch of HBLR and SIRR.

[hammersklavier]

Originally Posted by scalziand

It'd be nice if PATH could eat the Bayonne Branch of HBLR and SIRR.

Grade makes that a tad challenging. IIRC the Bayonne Branch is at-grade while SIRR is 3rd rail. You'd basically have to dig a ditch for the branch...

That said, it isn't just the lack of trans-Hudson capacity that's an issue. It's the fact that that part of North Jersey is essentially an extension of New York the city (rather than the metro) howsoever balkanized it may be, and needs to be connected into the city's subway system. (IOW, we should merge PANYNJ and the MTA, with MTA's better management in the controlling position.)

[manchester united]

Staten Island Railroad has 16.000 weekday ridership and late night service has a 30 minutes frequency. Path has 250.000 weekday ridership and late night service has a 35 minutes frequency.........

[Nexis4Jersey]

Originally Posted by manchester united

Staten Island Railroad has 16.000 weekday ridership and late night service has a 30 minutes frequency. Path has 250.000 weekday ridership and late night service has a 35 minutes frequency.........

That's Port authority logic....and overnight ridership is pretty low...

[C.]

Originally Posted by hammersklavier

Grade makes that a tad challenging. IIRC the Bayonne Branch is at-grade while SIRR is 3rd rail. You'd basically have to dig a ditch for the branch...

That said, it isn't just the lack of trans-Hudson capacity that's an issue. It's the fact that that part of North Jersey is essentially an extension of New York the city (rather than the metro) howsoever balkanized it may be, and needs to be connected into the city's subway system. (IOW, we should merge PANYNJ and the MTA, with MTA's better management in the controlling position.)

Yes Yes Yes!

There is talk about giving PATH to NJ Transit, which is the wrong move. Give it to MTA and integrate it more into the NYC subway system. They already share payment methods. I'd venture to say most path riders transfer to the MTA rather than transfer to NJ Transit.

[C.]

Originally Posted by drumz0rz

I actually had a chance to speak with the head of the Jersey City planning board and voiced my concern with the rapid expansion of downtown Jersey City and the capacity of the PATH. His only response was that the Port Authority have a knack for maintaining service just enough to meet demand, and that their signal modernization project should help greatly.

This is true. There has been a quiet increase in headways recently for the Journal Square - 33rd and Newark - WTC lines. Additionally, the stop at Hoboken during the late night service on the JSQ - 33 line has been shortened by 20%, resulting in trains getting in and out of there faster.

Anyone have access to historic change schedules, so the changes can be better documented?