Quote:
Originally Posted by Ant131531
I still believe they're being conservative with the city of Atlanta's growth. Last annual census estimate had Atlanta grow by about 8k between July 2014 to July 2015, while ARC only had 4.8k growth from April 2014 to April 2015.
When about 6k-7k apartment units are being completed each year with rapid occupancy in the new apartment blocks, that's about 7k-9k growth annually from apartments alone. You still have to consider townhomes and single family homes that are either being built and filled or older ones being filled as areas continue to gentrify. True, the south/west sides may be emptying out, but I feel like that's kind of stopped.
I think the census has been more accurate, but then again, they also thought Atlanta grew by over 100k people between 2000-2010, then come to find out it only grew by 4k so maybe ARC is right to be conservative.
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Not to disagree with you at all, because past experience dictates that the Census has royally fucked up with Atlanta before (recalling that they were super aggressive last 2000-2010 period so maybe they are being overly cautious this period), but has anyone paid attention to ACS and other official demographic counts pertaining to economic or housing data?
If one lived downtown and north and focused only on new construction, then it could be the cause of many question marks if population numbers didn't swell with expectations. However, is there a known issue in Atlanta of displacement? A number of cities are facing this as they become popular with wealthy retirees, empty nesters, and college educated young professionals/successful creatives. Depending on a city's policies and certain factors in place, there could be almost as many people priced or taxed out as new development comes in. If that is the case, while population numbers may not swell as expected, I would guess that average incomes should be swelling, percentage of homeowners to renters could theoretically decrease as well (because existing poor homeowners may be taxed out, not necessarily replaced on site but replaced by wealthy renters in O4W for instance, or someone buying up a house and renting it out).
I don't know how everything could shift, but I'm just offering up some possible theories?
On another note, I have been reading this thread every day for the past 1-2 months. WOW! Atlanta is on fire fire fire fire. I get more amusement tracking your projects than I do occasionally glancing up at a couple tall and interesting skyscrapers UC here. Lots of that reasoning is because I work in industry here, and the politics of "progressives" and of real estate in this town is so incredibly toxic that it causes me to be jaded in some regards to my own city (sort of like how you all feel about Fuqua). You guys have a process for approval and getting things out of the ground (without really compromising the integrity of projects that are realistic and good for the market) that is the absolute envy of a guy like me and cities like SF (well maybe not the city of SF or most of her people, just the few that try to put up buildings here).
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