Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

CBC hosted the National from Saint John the last two nights, and tonight will be the last night. They picked Saint John because of its spot a top the tariff impact list.

Some good coverage of Saint John and how the tariffs will impact the city on the second night. Didn’t expect to see this from the CBC.

I totally missed this and didn't even know it was happening. How times have changed. I used to watch The National pretty religiously years ago but since cutting the cable we never watch broadcast TV and it really isn't on my radar.

I do read the CBC and other (CTV, Global, TJ/NP, CNN, BBC) news websites daily but as to watching a traditional news broadcast? .....rarely. I rarely even watch the short videos on the CBC website as they force you to watch a 30 second commercial in order to see a 90 second story. I will stream CTV News Channel if there is something major happening in order to get live coverage.

Given the 24 hour news cycle and how fragmented viewership is today I have to wonder how relevant traditional "nightly newscasts" are in today's media landscape.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

It seems like the ridings on the other side of the Bay of Fundy in Nova Scotia will also be mighty close races, and there's still 35 days to go. What other ridings in Atlantic Canada will be closest?

Sometimes the overarching national and regional numbers can miss local effects, and I believe Central Newfoundland will be one of those districts. Beyond the fact that NLers typically re-elect their incumbents no matter what (unless you're in St. John's East), the current fisheries situation unfolding between crab harvesters and DFO will be a defining issue for the district. I suspect the conservatives will easily get re-elected there, unless we're going full on 1993/2015 election. It could very well be one of those defining problems like the fisheries issues which flipped Southern Shore-St. Margarets in 2021.

The entirety of the northeast coast of Central Newfoundland falls into zone 3K which is the zone in question. There are portions of Terra Nova-The Peninsulas and Long Range Mountains in the 3K zone as well, but to much lesser degree.

Also in Newfoundland I think the skirting of the normal democratic process to place very unpopular candidates in Avalon and Long Range Mountains will bite the conservatives and liberals in the butt. CPC injecting Kent into Avalon all but ends any hope they had of flipping the district, and the LPC injecting Bradshaw into Long Range Mountains will put the conservative candidate in poll position to flip the district.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I totally missed this and didn't even know it was happening. How times have changed. I used to watch The National pretty religiously years ago but since cutting the cable we never watch broadcast TV and it really isn't on my radar.

I do read the CBC and other (CTV, Global, TJ/NP, CNN, BBC) news websites daily but as to watching a traditional news broadcast? .....rarely. I rarely even watch the short videos on the CBC website as they force you to watch a 30 second commercial in order to see a 90 second story. I will stream CTV News Channel if there is something major happening in order to get live coverage.

Given the 24 hour news cycle and how fragmented viewership is today I have to wonder how relevant traditional "nightly newscasts" are in today's media landscape.

I haven’t watched The National in ages either, I tuned in on YouTube last Sunday to catch the At Issue panel, and was quite surprised to hear right at the top of the broadcast, “from Saint John, NB”. Quite a few good shots of the city, including the largest ever container ship at the port on last night’s broadcast. Last night was the last night from Saint John… they’re on to Brampton next.

• Video Link

This segment from the second night was probably the best feature on Saint John from all three nights.


The CBC definitely has the best production quality of all the major Canadian news outlets, and I feel like their coverage at least says something, unlike CTV and Global News.

Locally in Saint John, the CBC provides some of the best news coverage, it would be a noticeable loss to see their funding slashed.

Was nice to see Saint John so prominently featured by our national broadcaster.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Sometimes the overarching national and regional numbers can miss local effects, and I believe Central Newfoundland will be one of those districts.

Yeah, there’s a lot they can’t account for at the local level in their model… I’m curious how it works at the local level for 338. My riding of Saint John—St. Croix which no one expected to be in play for the LPC is now listed as a toss up between the LPC and CPC, but I assume there’s been no local specific polling done for this riding, just regional polling.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Yeah, there’s a lot they can’t account for at the local level in their model… I’m curious how it works at the local level for 338. My riding of Saint John—St. Croix which no one expected to be in play for the LPC is now listed as a toss up between the LPC and CPC, but I assume there’s been no local specific polling done for this riding, just regional polling.

I think 338 takes into account past results/voting patterns on a riding by riding basis as well. I'd have to think including west Saint John into this riding has a significant effect on forecast Liberal support. (along with the overall surge in Liberal popularity now that Trudeau isn't dragging them down)

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Yeah, there’s a lot they can’t account for at the local level in their model… I’m curious how it works at the local level for 338. My riding of Saint John—St. Croix which no one expected to be in play for the LPC is now listed as a toss up between the LPC and CPC, but I assume there’s been no local specific polling done for this riding, just regional polling.

Originally Posted by sailor734

I think 338 takes into account past results/voting patterns on a riding by riding basis as well. I'd have to think including west Saint John into this riding has a significant effect on forecast Liberal support. (along with the overall surge in Liberal popularity now that Trudeau isn't dragging them down)

Yeah it's done using a mostly proportional swing from the redistributed 2021 results. Regional and national polling averages are compared to the redistributed results of the last election and percent changes are applied to all districts equally.

It's a bit more involved than that as there are factors for other things like demographics, income, etc which go into the calculation that's different for each district, but by far and away it's the regional polling average that shifts the numbers the most. The overarching regional shift is probably correct, but the shift likely isn't uniform over all 32 districts, which is where these election day surprises can come from.

Riding-specific polls, if conducted, will go into the average, but they're not weighted very heavily; due to their low sample size they're often just wrong lol. Mainstreet does a lot of riding-specific polling during a campaign, and their hit rate is really low. More times than not their riding polls are nowhere near the election day outcome.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Could Fundy Royal be up for grabs? On a map it looks like it's close enough to Metro Moncton for that to play a factor. Did the Fundy Royal become more or less rural after the new boundaries?

Saint John-St. Croix is now a tossup, and Karen Ludwig has beaten John Williamson before. SJ-SC could end up being one of the closest races in Atlantic Canada.

Ludwig could certainly use a visit from the Prime Minister to the Port of Saint John, as I'm sure Pierre Poilievre will be visiting the Port City again soon in support of his candidates on both sides of Saint John Harbour.

Mark Carney has yet to officially visit NB or PEI yet as Prime Minister, but I'm sure we'll be seeing him here in the maritimes again. Susan Holt could especially be a useful campaign surrogate for Carney in NB, and maybe she can help the PM practice his French a bit before the big debate.

I think it's safe to say Holt and Carney are likely to have a much more productive relationship than our previous Premier and Prime Minister had.

[Taeolas]

CBC just posted an article outlining who's running where in NB

Looks like we're pretty set up for the election next month. And now that Sheila's brush has brushed by us, we'll probably see more signs up. I know here in Fredericton, they hadn't locked in the Liberal candidate until a day or two ago. So far I've seen a few CPC signs up on the roundabouts; just smaller ones. And there was one Green Party sign on the corner of Maple and Ring road.

By the end of the weekend, I'm sure all the electoral signs will be in full bloom on all the public roundabouts and major intersections.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Could Fundy Royal be up for grabs? On a map it looks like it's close enough to Metro Moncton for that to play a factor. Did the Fundy Royal become more or less rural after the new boundaries?

All of Riverview is now part of Fundy Royal. That's about 22,000 people. It isn't the same riding it used to be.

Of course, the suburban SJ part of the riding has been lost, so it may be a wash, but you never know.

The other two metro Moncton ridings (Moncton-Dieppe and Beausejour) are so Liberal that you could run a recently road-killed raccoon under the Liberal banner and it would still win. Being represented by two federal Liberal cabinet ministers doesn't hurt either.

[sailor734]

No doubt increasing urbanization and shrinking rural ridings favours the Liberals over the CPC.

[sailor734]

Saw a Toronto Star story referenced today that claimed Ontario PC sources leaked that an internal PC poll had Carney at 48% in Ontario ....Poilievre 33% and Singh at 11%. Ford is a realist and knows he needs to maintain good relations with the next PM.

Unless there is a big swing (or a big surprise) before the 28th things are not looking good for Poilievre in Ontario and he needs a strong result there to have a hope. So far nothing the CPC has tried seems to gain any traction against Carney.

[sailor734]

I have started to see Melissa Young signs popping up around town. So far only one lawn sign on our street. I have talked to a couple of Tories who are pretty sour about the whole situation surrounding her candidacy. Wonder if the resentment on the part of some CPC supporters could help to make the difference?

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I have started to see Melissa Young signs popping up around town. So far only one lawn sign on our street. I have talked to a couple of Tories who are pretty sour about the whole situation surrounding her candidacy. Wonder if the resentment on the part of some CPC supporters could help to make the difference?

If not for the now closer race in Saint John-St. Croix, Pierre Poilievre might not have even come to Saint John. It seems very much now like Wayne Long's seat to lose, and I think Quispamsis and Rothesay both going Liberal in the recent provincial election is going to help him. The latest 338 projection now has the LPC with a 99% chance to win the most seats and an 85% chance of a majority.

338 currently has Wayne Long at a >99% chance to win his seat and has Saint John-St. Croix at a 44/43% toss up between the CPC and LPC.

Still a long way to go, but Team Carney vs Team Poilievre is starting to feel a little reminiscent of Team Holt vs Team Higgs... except Carney is proud to call himself a Liberal while campaigning, and Steve Outhouse is not likely to be working for the current Conservative campaign. Although, with the style of the CPC's attack ads, who knows.

[Taeolas]

Justin made Liberal a 4-letter word politically speaking, so Holt had to be careful to distance herself from him during the campaign.

Now that we're seeing what the idiot down south is doing, and how Justin handled him and how Carney is handling him now, Justin's era is seen as the past and Liberal is no longer a 4-letter word, so Carney rightfully can take full claim of it. (As long as he keeps his distance from Justin. Don't want to nudge memories too much).

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

In Saint John-St. Croix news the CPC incumbent John Williamson has announced he will be opening a campaign office in West Saint John territory that is completely new to him. I wonder if he's worried about the Liberal wave unseating him for the 2nd time in a decade.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Awaiting this weeks Leger to see what it's seeing regionally. Many polls from around the 24th through to yesterday have shown a tightening in ATL (Mainstreet x2, Research Co, EKOS x2, and Abacus), however Liason isn't showing a tightening in their rolling poll, and there was the ARI poll showing a huge LPC lead.

Carney's first trip through the region wasn't without controversy so it could be a reaction to that.

The LPC campaign so far in NL is certainly underwhelming. For as much of a star candidate as Anthony Germain is supposed to be, he's been really slow coming out of the gate and appears to be slow to gain support while the CPC candidate in Terra Nova has been on the ground for months now. Meanwhile in the LPC candidate in Central Newfoundland has zero presence so far, and has not started campaigning. And of course, the LPC candidate in Long Range Mountains is god awful.

I'm beginning to feel the 4 LPC/3 CPC seat split in Newfoundland might become a reality.

[Freddypop]

PP is sked to be in Freddy on Monday so there will be a circus at the Capital Exhibit Centre for that.

[MonctonPerson]

Originally Posted by Freddypop

PP is sked to be in Freddy on Monday so there will be a circus at the Capital Exhibit Centre for that.

In Saint John this morning, Fredericton tonight, and St. John's Tuesday morning, with PEI in the evening based on the schedule released so far.

[sailor734]

So far, at least on a local level, the campaign seems very quiet here in SJ. Not seeing much coverage of local candidates in either the TJ or CBC's local news website. At this point in the provincial campaign last fall our street had at least a dozen houses with lawn signs. As of this morning we have two.

Wondering if things are similar in other ridings?

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Anyone else following the Lorneville opposition to development of the industrial park? Seems quixotic to me. You moved next door to an industrial park (and a coal generating station!) and you don't expect industry to happen there?

Looks like the Save Lorneville campaign has a new supporter, Conservative candidate, John Williamson.

Seems like a completely shameless attempt to win some votes, as I can't really imagine he actually supports this anti industrial campaign.