The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by abbyy1996

I was just looking to see how Atlantic Canadian CMA's rank in the national picture... I believe Moncton was ranked 27 th last year but I cannot find the table with the ranking this year

-Freddy leaped over Belleville Ont and is closing on Nanaimo and Kamloops
-Despite growth in SJ Lethbridge is nipping their heels, thanks to their sustained high rates of growth.
-St John's is very close to overtaking Sherbrooke and trending that way.

[MonctonRad]

RANKING OF ALL CMAs/CAs IN CANADA WITH A POPULATION OF GREATER THAN 100,000

1) Toronto, ON - 7,108,874
2) Montreal, QC - 4,597,857
3) Vancouver, BC - 3,088,036
4) Calgary, AB - 1,836,012
5) Ottawa, ON - 1,700,014
6) Edmonton, AB - 1,692, 385

7) Winnipeg, MB - 951,758
8) Quebec City, QC - 903,067
9) Hamilton, ON - 871,143
10) Kitchener/Waterloo ON - 701,568
11) London, ON - 633,002
12) Halifax, NS - 544,834
13) St. Catharines, ON - 503,670

14) Oshawa, ON - 493,441
15) Windsor, ON - 488,738
16) Victoria, BC - 445,090
17) Saskatoon, SK - 378,475
18) Regina, SK - 291,187
19) Kelowna, BC - 254,605
20) Barrie, ON - 252,446

21) Sherbrooke, QC - 243,911
22) St. John's, NL - 243,748
23) Abbotsford, BC - 223,828
24) Moncton, NB - 196,143
25) Sudbury, ON - 194,278
26) Kingston, ON - 193,466
27) Guelph, ON - 183,134
28) Brantford, ON - 176,307
29) Trois Rivieres, QC - 174,316
30) Saguenay, QC - 170,192

31) Peterborough, ON - 149,938
32) Saint John, NB - 144,543
33) Lethbridge, AB - 143,143
34) Thunder Bay, ON - 133,765
35) Chilliwack, BC - 130,283
36) Nanaimo, BC - 129,750
37) Kamloops, BC - 127,198
38) Fredericton, NB - 125,303
39) Belleville, ON - 124,978
40) Red Deer, AB - 115,277
41) Chatham/Kent, ON (CA) - 112,977
42) Sydney (CBRM), NS (CA) - 111,889
43) Drummondville, QC - 109,151
44) Sarnia, ON (CA) - 108,986
45) Prince George, BC (CA) - 100,127

Being a homer, I will rejoice in the fact that Moncton has now become a top 25 CMA in Canada (24th). It leapfrogged over Sudbury and Kingston within the last 12 months. Five years ago, Moncton was ranked #29. Assuming moderate growth in the upcoming year, I am hopeful we will surpass 200,000 in the CMA by July 2026.

Atlantic Canadian Rankings

12) - Halifax
22) - St. John's
24) - Moncton
32) - Saint John
38) - Fredericton
42) - Sydney

[Beaubassin]

I believe with the last estimates from Statcan, its safe to say that the Shediac population centre has reached a population of 10k. Which means it will become the next Census Agglomeration (CA) sometime after the 2026 census. The population of the town of Shediac post local governance reform should be around 13k as of July 1st 2025. The Shediac CA will include the neighbouring municipality of Beausoleil (population ~9k) as the core is within the CSD. The newly created CA should have a population of around 22k. Cap-Acadie (pop ~11,230) does not have sufficient commuting numbers to the Shediac delineation core to be included.

Now since the newly created Shediac CA would have a commuting interchange of over 35% with the Moncton delineation core, it would be merged with Moncton CMA right away. The Shediac core would become a secondary delineation core of the Moncton CMA. So now to calculate the forward commuting flow inclusion rule to the Moncton CMA, you would include both the Moncton delineation core (Monction, Dieppe and Riverview CSDs) and the secondary delineation core (Shediac CSD). Looking at commuting numbers pre pandemic, this could allow Cap-Acadie and possibly Champdoré to be included in the Moncton CMA. This will add 22k, possibly 40k if Cap-Acadie and Champdoré have sufficient commuting numbers.

[new kid in town]

All exciting news and prospects! I do hope once we cross 200k threshold, the Moncton CMA gets a bit more provincial support/funding for infrastructure to support the growth.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

I remember seeing a chart from stats Canada before that listed all the CMAs along with a distinction of everything above a certain number being classified as “large urban metros”.


Anyone know where to find this chart, or what the minimum is for a CMA to be classified as a “Large Urban Metro”? or a

At least as far as I remember, “Large Urban Metro” was the term that was used.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Quoting from the main Stats Canada thread:

Originally Posted by Architype

These stats from 1901 are the most awesome ones for Canada, when St. John's was larger than Vancouver, and BC was the second smallest provincial population.

And when Saint John was St. John, and larger than St. John’s.

Some things are cyclical in this world, and I truly think Saint John will be larger than both Moncton and St. John’s again one day. . . I just hope I live long enough to see it, or at least see the trajectory be possible.

Clearly though, Saint John will need some far more effective solutions to get more people here, and keep them here, for that to be possible, but I truly think it is possible.


Imo, the city with the third largest port in the country should be a lot bigger than the 32nd largest metro area in the country… but hopes and dreams don’t bring about sustained demographic growth… Saint John needs better strategies and better solutions.

[Beaubassin]

I've only ever heard of Census Metropolitan Areas (CMA) and Census Agglomerations (CA). From this Statcan publication in 2022 it seems like they use CMA and "large urban centre" interchangeably. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220209/dq220209b-eng.htm

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Beaubassin

I've only ever heard of Census Metropolitan Areas (CMA) and Census Agglomerations (CA). From this Statcan publication in 2022 it seems like they use CMA and "large urban centre" interchangeably. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220209/dq220209b-eng.htm

Thanks. I think “Large Urban Centre” was the term I remember seeing on that chart. I remember Moncton was classified as a Large Urban Centre on that chart, but Saint John was not.

Seems like they rank anything above 100k as a large urban centre now. Curious if there are still delineations classifying the different sizes of CMAs. 🤔

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Quoting from the main Stats Canada thread:



And when Saint John was St. John, and larger than St. John’s.

Some things are cyclical in this world, and I truly think Saint John will be larger than both Moncton and St. John’s again one day. . . I just hope I live long enough to see it, or at least see the trajectory be possible.

Clearly though, Saint John will need some far more effective solutions to get more people here, and keep them here, for that to be possible, but I truly think it is possible.


Imo, the city with the third largest port in the country should be a lot bigger than the 32nd largest metro area in the country… but hopes and dreams don’t bring about sustained demographic growth… Saint John needs better strategies and better solutions.

SJ was virtually the same population as Halifax. The 20th century wasn't kind to Saint John.

[nwalbert]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Quoting from the main Stats Canada thread:



And when Saint John was St. John, and larger than St. John’s.

Some things are cyclical in this world, and I truly think Saint John will be larger than both Moncton and St. John’s again one day. . . I just hope I live long enough to see it, or at least see the trajectory be possible.

Clearly though, Saint John will need some far more effective solutions to get more people here, and keep them here, for that to be possible, but I truly think it is possible.


Imo, the city with the third largest port in the country should be a lot bigger than the 32nd largest metro area in the country… but hopes and dreams don’t bring about sustained demographic growth… Saint John needs better strategies and better solutions.

I couldn't agree more here. So many things are cyclical and we are already starting to see some major trends changing. The private investment that is pouring into SJ right now is truly impressive and will bode well for the future.

We just need the provincial government to actually put their investment where private investment is going and not follow an agenda. I am confident the port and big business coming to SJ is too big for the government to mess up though haha.

[NBNYer]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Thanks. I think “Large Urban Centre” was the term I remember seeing on that chart. I remember Moncton was classified as a Large Urban Centre on that chart, but Saint John was not.

Seems like they rank anything above 100k as a large urban centre now. Curious if there are still delineations classifying the different sizes of CMAs. 🤔

I think what you may be referring to is population centres; areas of continuous urban buildup. StatCan did refer to Population Centres over 100,000 as "large" which is why Moncton was described as such but not Saint John in the last census. Moncton's was approximately 120K and Saint John's was 65K as it does not include the KV.

[NBNYer]

Originally Posted by Beaubassin

I believe with the last estimates from Statcan, its safe to say that the Shediac population centre has reached a population of 10k. Which means it will become the next Census Agglomeration (CA) sometime after the 2026 census. The population of the town of Shediac post local governance reform should be around 13k as of July 1st 2025. The Shediac CA will include the neighbouring municipality of Beausoleil (population ~9k) as the core is within the CSD. The newly created CA should have a population of around 22k. Cap-Acadie (pop ~11,230) does not have sufficient commuting numbers to the Shediac delineation core to be included.

Now since the newly created Shediac CA would have a commuting interchange of over 35% with the Moncton delineation core, it would be merged with Moncton CMA right away. The Shediac core would become a secondary delineation core of the Moncton CMA. So now to calculate the forward commuting flow inclusion rule to the Moncton CMA, you would include both the Moncton delineation core (Monction, Dieppe and Riverview CSDs) and the secondary delineation core (Shediac CSD). Looking at commuting numbers pre pandemic, this could allow Cap-Acadie and possibly Champdoré to be included in the Moncton CMA. This will add 22k, possibly 40k if Cap-Acadie and Champdoré have sufficient commuting numbers.

Is the commuting threshold for a CA to be included in a CMA lower than for areas not within a CA? I remember reading here that Shediac would have required 50% commuting interchange with the Moncton CMA but was a hair short of that number.

If this scenario your are describing comes to pass, it will put the Moncton CMA in St John's/Sherbrooke territory. I remember as a kid of the 90s when the area was barely 100K; so much has changed.

[bridgeoftea]

Originally Posted by NBNYer

I think what you may be referring to is population centres; areas of continuous urban buildup. StatCan did refer to Population Centres over 100,000 as "large" which is why Moncton was described as such but not Saint John in the last census. Moncton's was approximately 120K and Saint John's was 65K as it does not include the KV.

Yeah Saint John being bigger than Nanaimo is really interesting to me.
I visit Nanaimo once or twice a year and it feels so busier. Just taking a quick map view, the distance from what I consider the beginning to the end of Nanaimo on the highway is about 20km where as for Saint John it's about 30.

It could also be just how the city of Nanaimo is laid out where it was 5 smaller cities and amalgamated into one big one, so there's clearer "centers" than SJ. Also the highway only having traffic lights and not overpasses, makes commuting in rush hour feel way worse.

Nanaimo feels closer to Moncton to me. Speaking of Moncton, very exciting to see their growth again!

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by NBNYer

I think what you may be referring to is population centres; areas of continuous urban buildup. StatCan did refer to Population Centres over 100,000 as "large" which is why Moncton was described as such but not Saint John in the last census. Moncton's was approximately 120K and Saint John's was 65K as it does not include the KV.

I'm 100% certain that you are correct.

POPCTR refers to a continuous built up urban area. The built up areas of Moncton, Dieppe and Riverview are directly contiguous with each other (except for the Petitcodiac River), and are considered a single POPCTR. The population of the Moncton POPCTR is now over 140,000.

Saint John is more discontiguous. The KV for example is not considered part of the Saint John POPCTR.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by NBNYer

Is the commuting threshold for a CA to be included in a CMA lower than for areas not within a CA? I remember reading here that Shediac would have required 50% commuting interchange with the Moncton CMA but was a hair short of that number.

If this scenario your are describing comes to pass, it will put the Moncton CMA in St John's/Sherbrooke territory. I remember as a kid of the 90s when the area was barely 100K; so much has changed.

I think what Beaubassin means is that with Shediac's new expanded boundaries, this changes the percentage of commuters within the municipality, and pushes Shediac over the STATSCAN threshold. In other words, Shediac will more likely now be considered a commuting suburb than a self sufficient regional town.

I agree with you. With the addition of Shediac (and possibly Cap Pele) to the Moncton CMA, this would boost the population to about 225,000 or so. As you say, this would put us within spitting distance of St. John's and Sherbrooke, and, we have pretty consistently had a higher growth rate than either of those two cities over the last 15-20 years. If we ended up passing them, then we would be the 21st largest CMA in the country.

These statistics matter. Every corporation keeps tabs on regional populations across the country, and relative growth rates when deciding where to locate new subsidiaries or franchises. The further up the rungs Moncton is, the better.

I moved to Moncton in 1989. The CA (at that time) was only about 95,000 or so. Moncton passed 100,000 about the turn of the millennium, and became a CMA in 2006. Now we are knocking on the door of a CMA population of 200,000, and, if the boundaries are expanded, 225,000. Incredible........

[Beaubassin]

Originally Posted by NBNYer

Is the commuting threshold for a CA to be included in a CMA lower than for areas not within a CA? I remember reading here that Shediac would have required 50% commuting interchange with the Moncton CMA but was a hair short of that number.

If this scenario your are describing comes to pass, it will put the Moncton CMA in St John's/Sherbrooke territory. I remember as a kid of the 90s when the area was barely 100K; so much has changed.

For a CA to be merged with a CMA, it only needs a 35% commuting interchange rate. For anything else it requires a 50% forward commuting rate.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Beaubassin

For a CA to be merged with a CMA, it only needs a 35% commuting interchange rate. For anything else it requires a 50% forward commuting rate.

In that case, with Shediac an imminent CA, it is a slam dunk it will be added to the Moncton CMA by 2031.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I think what Beaubassin means is that with Shediac's new expanded boundaries, this changes the percentage of commuters within the municipality, and pushes Shediac over the STATSCAN threshold. In other words, Shediac will more likely now be considered a commuting suburb than a self sufficient regional town.

I agree with you. With the addition of Shediac (and possibly Cap Pele) to the Moncton CMA, this would boost the population to about 225,000 or so. As you say, this would put us within spitting distance of St. John's and Sherbrooke, and, we have pretty consistently had a higher growth rate than either of those two cities over the last 15-20 years. If we ended up passing them, then we would be the 21st largest CMA in the country.

These statistics matter. Every corporation keeps tabs on regional populations across the country, and relative growth rates when deciding where to locate new subsidiaries or franchises. The further up the rungs Moncton is, the better.

I moved to Moncton in 1989. The CA (at that time) was only about 95,000 or so. Moncton passed 100,000 about the turn of the millennium, and became a CMA in 2006. Now we are knocking on the door of a CMA population of 200,000, and, if the boundaries are expanded, 225,000. Incredible........

Looking at the quoted CMA populations for Moncton and the bottom Top 20 currently, we have:

18) Regina, SK - 291,187
19) Kelowna, BC - 254,605
20) Barrie, ON - 252,446

21) Sherbrooke, QC - 243,911
22) St. John's, NL - 243,748
23) Abbotsford, BC - 223,828
24) Moncton, NB - 196,143

Getting past Regina isn't happening any time soon (especially with how Regina and the Prairies are growing). That would require a 100k boost that Moncton certainly won't have no matter how much you strain the stats (Maybe making Miramichi a node of Moncton CMA? *snicker*).

But getting to 20 or 19 does seem to be plausible. Kelowna may outpace Moncton, but as you noted, St John's and Sherbrooke don't seem to grow as much, and I don't think Barrie's really known for fast growth either.

So an NB city in the Top 20 of Canada within the next decade is feeling quite plausible.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by sailor734

SJ was virtually the same population as Halifax. The 20th century wasn't kind to Saint John.

This was municipalities, not CMAs (they didn't exist yet), so it doesn't include areas like Dartmouth or Armdale for Halifax which were suburbs at the time. Halifax County was 74,662 in 1901. Not sure about Saint John; Google's crappy AI says it was about 51k for a county population in 1901.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Beaubassin

I believe with the last estimates from Statcan, its safe to say that the Shediac population centre has reached a population of 10k. Which means it will become the next Census Agglomeration (CA) sometime after the 2026 census. The population of the town of Shediac post local governance reform should be around 13k as of July 1st 2025. The Shediac CA will include the neighbouring municipality of Beausoleil (population ~9k) as the core is within the CSD. The newly created CA should have a population of around 22k. Cap-Acadie (pop ~11,230) does not have sufficient commuting numbers to the Shediac delineation core to be included.

Now since the newly created Shediac CA would have a commuting interchange of over 35% with the Moncton delineation core, it would be merged with Moncton CMA right away. The Shediac core would become a secondary delineation core of the Moncton CMA. So now to calculate the forward commuting flow inclusion rule to the Moncton CMA, you would include both the Moncton delineation core (Monction, Dieppe and Riverview CSDs) and the secondary delineation core (Shediac CSD). Looking at commuting numbers pre pandemic, this could allow Cap-Acadie and possibly Champdoré to be included in the Moncton CMA. This will add 22k, possibly 40k if Cap-Acadie and Champdoré have sufficient commuting numbers.

A well thought out post. I agree with him. Shediac's boundaries have recently been expanded to include adjacent communities like Scoudouc and Shediac Bridge. This will push the population of the town well above the threshold to become it's own CA. This should occur after the 2026 census.

The expanded boundaries of Shediac are contiguous with the Moncton CMA. The commuting threshold for a CA are less onerous than for a community without CA status (35% vs 50%). Shediac, once it becomes a CA will be absorbed into the Moncton CMA (including neighbouring communities that will become part of the new CA once it is created).

This means the Moncton CMA could increase by 22,000-40,000 by the 2031 census.

The Moncton CMA is currently 196,000. The new CMA population in 2031 could be 218,000-236,000 (not including any natural growth). If you include natural growth (if it continues at current levels) it is conceivable Moncton's CMA population in 2031 could be 250,000.

This feels about right. The Shediac region psychologically feels like it is part of greater Moncton anyway.

If the Moncton CMA had a population of 250,000, it would be within spitting distance of becoming a top 20 CMA in Canada.