The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[someone123]

I don't think a linear prediction based on this past year is going to be very accurate years into the future when there is such a big underlying temporary outflow of nonpermanent residents. Most likely is a return to something resembling the balanced patterns of a few years ago (1-2% growth for most places, not +3% then -1%).

[MonctonRad]

POPULATION CLOCK - Jan 1, 2026

NS - 1,090,399
NB - 868,631
NL - 548,395
PE - 183,393

I'm a little disappointed. I was sure there was a similar post for January 1st, 2025, and I was going to do a comparison, but, I was wrong.

One big change however is that in the first 10 hours of 2026, the Canadian population has increased by seven people. A year ago, the Canadian population would have increased by about a thousand in the same time interval.

[MonctonRad]

Annual StatsCan CMA/CA population estimates will be released January 14th.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

POPULATION CLOCK - Jan 1, 2026

NS - 1,090,399
NB - 868,631
NL - 548,395
PE - 183,393

I'm a little disappointed. I was sure there was a similar post for January 1st, 2025, and I was going to do a comparison, but, I was wrong.

One big change however is that in the first 10 hours of 2026, the Canadian population has increased by seven people. A year ago, the Canadian population would have increased by about a thousand in the same time interval.

Canada really needs to look at changing its immigration policy to get more immigrants into our smaller and medium sized centres, along with lengthening the PR process so that newcomers are more likely to lay down roots and stick around where they’ve arrived (and less likely to move onto the bigger centres as soon as they get PR.)

New Brunswick and other less populated regions of the country should be able to maintain their demographic growth through immigration without putting the more populated regions/centres at risk of overpopulation by being used as end-runs.

[bingun]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Annual StatsCan CMA/CA population estimates will be released January 14th.

I am looking forward to this. A few things to keep in mind -

This will be a population estimate as of July 1st, 2025, which is before the most recent estimate that included decreases at the national and provincial levels. We already know that NB had an increase in population of around 11,400 between July 2024 and 2025. For comparison, between 2023 and 2024, there was an increase of around 27,200.

This is also before the non-permanent resident population began to decline due to federal changes. I can see from previous figures that it increased by about 1,900 during 2024/2025.

Last year's overall population figures for reference -

Moncton - 188,036
Saint John - 142,433
Fredericton - 122,500

Based on last year's increase ratio, I would guess Moncton will be around 193K, Saint John 144K, and Fredericton 124K, but I am sure there will be some variance.

Looking further ahead to 2026, Moncton may see a steeper decline in growth from the immigration changes, as it has benefited more than Fredericton or Saint John.

Net non-permanent residents by CMA -

2022/2023

Moncton - 4,202
Saint John - 1,442
Fredericton - 1,961

2023/2024

Moncton - 2,871
Saint John - 1,025
Fredericton - 1,374

Lastly, it's noteworthy that while Saint John hasn't experienced the same level of non-permanent residents, such as students or TFWs, it has had high levels of interprovincial migration in the last two years, more than Moncton and Fredericton. I am curious to see if this trend continues.

[bingun]

Canada's population estimates: Subprovincial areas, 2025

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260114/dq260114a-eng.htm

While experiencing a slowdown, population growth of several CMAs was strong. From July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025, growth rates in the Edmonton (+3.0%), Moncton (+2.9%) and Calgary (+2.9%) CMAs were the largest among all CMAs. Permanent immigration was the leading factor of growth in those three CMAs; the increase in the number of non-permanent residents and gains from migratory exchanges with other provinces also contributed significantly to growth in the Edmonton and Calgary CMAs.

In Atlantic Canada, large urban centres had seen higher gains from interprovincial migration since 2018/2019, but those have moderated or become net losses, according to the most recent figures. From July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025, the CMAs of St. John's (-716), Halifax (+1,098), Moncton (-363), Saint John (+82) and Fredericton (-290) each saw their lowest levels in at least four years.

Moncton CMA - 196,143 (+5666)
Saint John CMA - 144,543 (+1638)
Fredericton CMA - 125,303 (+1995)
Halifax CMA - 544, 834 (+8462)
St John's CMA - 243,478 (+3050)
Charlottetown CA - 96,516 (+1610)
Truro CA - 51,166 (+516)
Cape Breton CA - 111,889 (-189)

It appears the 2024 values have been revised upwards, too, so the increases are even higher than shown. For example, in last year's release, Moncton's July 1st 2024 population was 188,036, but in the latest data set, it was 190,477.

Consistent numbers throughout the region, but Moncton continues to be the standout. With the federal immigration changes, I am not sure they will break 200K next year, but it will be close!

[Bishop2047]

Atlantic CMA (and Charlottetown) estimates came out today. 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025

St. John's (CMA), Newfoundland and Labrador- 220,052----- 224,707------ 232,536------ 240,428----- 243,478

Halifax (CMA), Nova Scotia- 482,144----- 498,222----- 515,453------ 536,372----- 544,834

Moncton (CMA), New Brunswick- 161,376------ 168,356------ 178,208------- 190,477------ 196,143

Saint John (CMA), New Brunswick- 133,140------ 135,443------ 138,854----- 142,905------ 144,543

Fredericton (CMA), New Brunswick- 111,017------ 114,480------ 118,659------ 123,308----- 125,303

Charlottetown (CA), Prince Edward Island- 83,104------ 86,395------ 90,602------ 94,906----- 96,516

[darkharbour]

Still nice to see the Saint John area growing year-over-year at such a positive rate after decades of decline. The region has definitely turned the corner.

Also, the three cities of southern NB are approaching the half million mark, so another encouraging sign toward future integration of the workforces and maybe some forward-looking solutions to allow easier movement between the three centres.

[bingun]

Originally Posted by darkharbour

Still nice to see the Saint John area growing year-over-year at such a positive rate after decades of decline. The region has definitely turned the corner.

Also, the three cities of southern NB are approaching the half million mark, so another encouraging sign toward future integration of the workforces and maybe some forward-looking solutions to allow easier movement between the three centres.

Yes, it is great to see. I know Moncton gets a lot of the focus, but the turnaround in Saint John should not be neglected.

This dataset only goes back to 2001. I would have to go elsewhere for more historical values, but between 2001 and 2015, the population increased by just 958! Since then, it has increased by 16,126!

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

Atlantic CMA (and Charlottetown) estimates came out today. 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025

St. John's (CMA), Newfoundland and Labrador- 220,052----- 224,707------ 232,536------ 240,428----- 243,478

Halifax (CMA), Nova Scotia- 482,144----- 498,222----- 515,453------ 536,372----- 544,834

Moncton (CMA), New Brunswick- 161,376------ 168,356------ 178,208------- 190,477------ 196,143

Saint John (CMA), New Brunswick- 133,140------ 135,443------ 138,854----- 142,905------ 144,543

Fredericton (CMA), New Brunswick- 111,017------ 114,480------ 118,659------ 123,308----- 125,303

Charlottetown (CA), Prince Edward Island- 83,104------ 86,395------ 90,602------ 94,906----- 96,516

So, the population increases from 2021-2025 are:

Halifax - 62,690
Moncton - 34, 767
St. John's - 23,426
Fredericton - 14,285
Charlottetown - 13,412
Saint John - 11,403

Normally I would say that Moncton would crack 200k by July 2026, and Charlottetown would pass 100k at the same time, but, given the recent immigration changes, we might be stalled on the cusp of these landmark changes for a few years.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by bingun

Yes, it is great to see. I know Moncton gets a lot of the focus, but the turnaround in Saint John should not be neglected.

This dataset only goes back to 2001. I would have to go elsewhere for more historical values, but between 2001 and 2015, the population increased by just 958! Since then, it has increased by 16,126!

It is truly impressive, and not a common occurrence in North America. To see a city the size of Saint John boom, decline (or stagnate), and now rebound is far more interesting than the steady growth of Fredericton or more rapid growth of Moncton/Halifax.

[Taeolas]

Dang, Moncton's just a hair short. Still, it's under 4k to hit the 200k target. Even with the diminished immigration rates, I'd say Moncton will still hit 200k by the 2026 CMA estimates. Maybe not by July, but by the end of the year.

Charlottetown has 3500 to go, and that will be a tougher target to reach. Probably not until 2027 at the earliest and that's probably optimistic.

Looking at Round number milestones for SJ and Freddy, I think we can optimistically say that SJ will hit 150k and Freddy will hit 130k both by 2027, with a better chance of reaching those targets than Charlottetown has.

[KnoxfordGuy]

I'd be fine if Fredericton only grew between 900-1000 people a year. Much more sustainable and easier integration into the housing market amongst other things.

[Bishop2047]

Atlantic CAs----------------------------------------------------- 2024-----2025

Grand Falls-Windsor (CA), Newfoundland and Labrador------14,516-----14,549
Gander (CA), Newfoundland and Labrador------------------ 14,266------14,389
Corner Brook (CA), Newfoundland and Labrador-------------31,379----- 31,880
Charlottetown (CA), Prince Edward Island ----------------- 94,906----- 96,516
Summerside (CA), Prince Edward Island-------------------- 20,619----- 21,017
Kentville (CA), Nova Scotia---------------------------------- 29,283----- 29,559
Truro (CA), Nova Scotia --------------------------------------50,650----- 51,166
New Glasgow (CA), Nova Scotia----------------------------- 36,493----- 36,677
Cape Breton (CA), Nova Scotia ---------------------------- 112,078----- 111,889
Bathurst (CA), New Brunswick------------------------------ 33,326----- 33,467
Miramichi (CA), New Brunswick ---------------------------- 30,047----- 30,218
Edmundston (CA), New Brunswick ------------------------- 24,174----- 24,655
Campbellton (CA), New Brunswick/Quebec ---------------- 15,450----- 15,554

[abbyy1996]

I was just looking to see how Atlantic Canadian CMA's rank in the national picture... I believe Moncton was ranked 27 th last year but I cannot find the table with the ranking this year

[Pugsley]

I still find it interesting that if you used the more generous geographic ranges and criteria by which many US CMAs count populations, Fredericton and Saint John would clearly be considered as one region, and would be the second largest in Atlantic Canada at 270K.

I still feel strongly that the province should be doing more to connect these two cities more aggressively to build a proper corridor. It would only foster more opportunity and growth for SE New Brunswick, the province, and the broader region.

[Taeolas]

The problem with linking Freddy and SJ more, is that we have CFB Gagetown acting as a wall between the cities. When it was built, it disrupted/killed a number of communities that was in the area and would have grown into villages and towns to bridge the cities. And the main highway between the cities goes through the base, so the other communities (Freddy Junction, Gagetown, etc....) can't really grow off the highway either.

In hindsight, it would have been better if instead of CFB Gagetown, we had gotten CFB Minto or CFB Stanley; building the base to the north of the city. There's certainly enough space up there, but it would have been less disruptive to the province's communities than where it is now.

The Twinned TCH routing between Freddy and Moncton is a similar situation. Not quite as big a wall as CFB Gagetown is; but it does bypass a lot of the communities between the cities and goes through forest wilderness instead, which limits how well communities can grow along the highway. (Compare with Route 1 between SJ and Moncton, and how many towns and villages are along that route).

The TCH really should have gone down to Sussex from Freddy, and then taken Route 1's routing to Moncton; it would have been maybe another 20km in length, but it would have served a lot more communities. And then Route 1 could also be designated a TCH route, and put SJ on the TCH too. (Route 7 would not be as needed in that situation, and Sussex would be a hub town between the 3 cities)

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by abbyy1996

I was just looking to see how Atlantic Canadian CMA's rank in the national picture... I believe Moncton was ranked 27 th last year but I cannot find the table with the ranking this year

I know we have leapfrogged a couple of Ontario cities in the last year (Kingston and Sudbury). I believe Moncton is (at least) a top 25 city now.

I will do my own ranking list when I get home after work today.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

I still find it interesting that if you used the more generous geographic ranges and criteria by which many US CMAs count populations, Fredericton and Saint John would clearly be considered as one region, and would be the second largest in Atlantic Canada at 270K.

I still feel strongly that the province should be doing more to connect these two cities more aggressively to build a proper corridor. It would only foster more opportunity and growth for SE New Brunswick, the province, and the broader region.

The airport idea would really be a great way to connect those cities. Ideally, both cities and their suburbs would invest in a convenient, affordable bus system to and from the airport, which could also be used to get between the Saint John and Fredericton regions via bus.

I still think your combined airport proposal has immense potential if taken up by the current provincial and federal governments… the whole NATO logistics piece and CAF involvement is an extremely timely component, and why I think the federal government might actually go for it.

Susan Holt is the first premier from Fredericton in a very long time, and investments in infrastructure to better connect Fredericton to Saint John just makes sense for Fredericton’s economy.

Maybe there’s a need for a new region wide development agency that covers both Saint John and Fredericton?

[bingun]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

Atlantic CAs----------------------------------------------------- 2024-----2025

Grand Falls-Windsor (CA), Newfoundland and Labrador------14,516-----14,549
Gander (CA), Newfoundland and Labrador------------------ 14,266------14,389
Corner Brook (CA), Newfoundland and Labrador-------------31,379----- 31,880
Charlottetown (CA), Prince Edward Island ----------------- 94,906----- 96,516
Summerside (CA), Prince Edward Island-------------------- 20,619----- 21,017
Kentville (CA), Nova Scotia---------------------------------- 29,283----- 29,559
Truro (CA), Nova Scotia --------------------------------------50,650----- 51,166
New Glasgow (CA), Nova Scotia----------------------------- 36,493----- 36,677
Cape Breton (CA), Nova Scotia ---------------------------- 112,078----- 111,889
Bathurst (CA), New Brunswick------------------------------ 33,326----- 33,467
Miramichi (CA), New Brunswick ---------------------------- 30,047----- 30,218
Edmundston (CA), New Brunswick ------------------------- 24,174----- 24,655
Campbellton (CA), New Brunswick/Quebec ---------------- 15,450----- 15,554

While the numbers are still relatively small, Edmundston is impressive at almost +500. It is nice to see some population growth outside of the three major centres.

I am not surprised to see Cape Breton as the only negative. Let's hope Cape Breton University moves away from being a diploma mill and works hard to regain its reputation and credibility.