The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[new kid in town]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

That won't be till January with the CMA and CA release.

Thank you.

[someone123]

Part of what is happening is that there is an outflow of nonpermanent residents. This has "flipped" some of the usual net results as the places with fewer nonpermanent residents are being modeled as having fewer departures.

I'm not sure where there's a good breakdown for this data or how accurate it is. One question I have is how nonpermanent outflows and "overstays" are determined.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

This was in the Canada section statistics thread. I thought it was interesting:

Originally Posted by sailor734

^ Makes you wonder if our homeless crisis isn't more about lack of mental health services and/or rampant meth/fentanyl use than lack of affordable housing.

I think it depends if this chart is based on the price to buy a home, or does it also including rental housing costs?

New Brunswick has some of the most affordable metro areas in Canada to buy a home, but the rental situation is quite a mixed bag. I'd say the lack of affordable and deeply affordable rental housing remains one of the biggest causes of homelessness in New Brunswick, but is mostly represented by the "silent" portion of the population experiencing homelessness... like the people staying with family members, friends, in between places, people forced to live out of their cars, or even forced to temporarily tent.

It's the very un-silent minority of the homeless population that is the most visible, noticeable, and problematic... and they take up a lot of the resources aimed at helping homeless people New Brunswick, and make up a disproportionate of calls from our first responders.

There definitely needs to be a new strategy to deal with the scourge of hard drugs on the streets of our city, and better plans to deal with people suffering from extreme poverty and mental illness, but there also need to be ambitious solutions to deal with the lack of affordable and deeply affordable rental housing for low income New Brunswickers being squeezed by historic levels of immigration and a historic lack of affordable rental housing.

[bingun]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

That won't be till January with the CMA and CA release.

Yes, it takes them a few more months to drill through the CMA level detail. It is probably a good thing this is only released annually, as it would be difficult to produce accurate numbers every quarter.

The tables below give the best overview of what is happening behind the scenes. You can see the inflow of non-permanent residents has slowed while the outflow has increased as permits expire. NB experienced a rough year for interprovincial migration, although the latest quarter showed a more positive trend. I think it is critical that the Atlantic provinces maintain neutral or positive interprovincial migration, thereby reducing their dependence on international migration.







Median age is also interesting to look at.

In Canada, the recent trend of a lower median age has halted and reversed, with the median age increasing to 40.6 this year from 40.3 last year. However, in NB, it has actually decreased further this year from 44.8 to 44.6. NS stayed flat at 43.3, and PEI decreased slightly from 41.1 to 41.0.

[q12]

Originally Posted by bingun

Median age is also interesting to look at.

In Canada, the recent trend of a lower median age has halted and reversed, with the median age increasing to 40.6 this year from 40.3 last year. However, in NB, it has actually decreased further this year from 44.8 to 44.6. NS stayed flat at 43.3, and PEI decreased slightly from 41.1 to 41.0.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2020018-eng.htm


https://novascotia.ca/finance/statistics/news.asp?id=21374

[bingun]

The fertility rate, or the rate of natural births, is also continuing to decline rapidly in Canada and the Atlantic provinces. You need a fertility rate of around 2.1 to maintain your population purely through natural births.

Somehow, New Brunswick is in the strongest position among the Atlantic provinces and is even above Canada as a whole. Meanwhile, the other three provinces are in dire straits. Nova Scotia could be below 1 in the not-too-distant future.

If things continue like this, and a more restrictive immigration policy remains in place, the local school systems are going to dramatically thin out in the coming decade.

Canada
2019 - 1.47
2024 - 1.25

NB
2019 - 1.45
2024 - 1.26

NS
2019 - 1.36
2024 - 1.08

PEI
2019 - 1.41
2024 - 1.10

NL
2019 - 1.30
2024 - 1.12

[KnoxfordGuy]

This is a problem in most developed countries.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Interesting data from Stats Can today on school enrollment. NB has the second highest increase in public school enrollment from 2022-24 after Alberta. New Brunswick was closing schools 6 years ago.

Screen shot from Stats Can website:



Interesting tidbit from the population clock I noticed is that Atlantic Canada's population has passed 2.7 million.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Interesting data from Stats Can today on school enrollment. NB has the second highest increase in public school enrollment from 2022-24 after Alberta. New Brunswick was closing schools 6 years ago.

Screen shot from Stats Can website:



Interesting tidbit from the population clock I noticed is that Atlantic Canada's population has passed 2.7 million.

I wonder how many schools were closed down in the past 6 years versus how many have been built over the same period. Seems like maybe some of those closures were premature.


Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but from what I understand, families can enrol their children in the French school system (not French immersion) as long as at least one parent speaks a language other than English as their first language?

Are there any sort of statistics on how many children from non Francophones are being enrolled in the French school system?

[Beaubassin]

Shediac #1 for tax base growth rate

Source: www2.gnb.ca/content/dam/gnb/Departments/lg-gl/pdf/fiscal-capacity-funding-2026-financement-capacite-fiscale.pdf

[MonctonRad]

Yay Shediac!



And Moncton/Dieppe/Riverview combine to form a tax base just over $21.1B

[darkharbour]

The industrial tax base of Saint John is disgracefully under-reported as usual, not to mention that the Port doesn't count toward these numbers.

[irisheyes]

Here you have it. The utter corruption of this province reflected in statistics.

[MonctonRad]

HOUSING STARTS IN CANADA FOR 2025 YTD (from the Canada section)

This is a list of all cities with more than 2,000 housing starts so far this year (including October).

Calgary 23,951
Montreal 22,173
Vancouver 22,001
Toronto 21,574
Edmonton 17,989
Ottawa-Gatineau 9862
Quebec City 7666
Halifax 5893
Winnipeg 4914
Victoria 4129
KW 3656
Saskatoon 3275
London 2592
Kelowna 2314
Moncton 2212
Hamilton 2152
Abbotsford-Mission 2039

Moncton punching well above it's weight, with more housing starts this year than Hamilton ON (with a CMA population of over 800,000)

We are pretty much equal to Halifax on a per capital basis.

[Beaubassin]

Originally Posted by darkharbour

The industrial tax base of Saint John is disgracefully under-reported as usual, not to mention that the Port doesn't count toward these numbers.

Looking at the Port of SJ Financial statements, it shows that they value all of their properties and equipment at about 150 million dollars. That's crazy as they only pay about 800k in "taxes" to the city of Saint John. If they were paying regular property taxes of 2.635% for industry, it would be a bill of about 4 million dollars.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

HOUSING STARTS IN CANADA FOR 2025 YTD (from the Canada section)

This is a list of all cities with more than 2,000 housing starts so far this year (including October).

Calgary 23,951
Montreal 22,173
Vancouver 22,001
Toronto 21,574
Edmonton 17,989
Ottawa-Gatineau 9862
Quebec City 7666
Halifax 5893
Winnipeg 4914
Victoria 4129
KW 3656
Saskatoon 3275
London 2592
Kelowna 2314
Moncton 2212
Hamilton 2152
Abbotsford-Mission 2039

Moncton punching well above it's weight, with more housing starts this year than Hamilton ON (with a CMA population of over 800,000)

We are pretty much equal to Halifax on a per capital basis.

The site where this data was pulled from in the Canada section

Of further note, the other Atlantic Canada cities that it tracked are at:

Fredericton 1,102
St John's 827
Saint John 461

Freddy is pushing some impressive numbers all things considered; it seems to be keeping up with Moncton at least.

Both John s numbers are rather pitiful. Newfoundlands numbers especially looked bad (at a provincial level, PEI was handedly beating Newfoundland). And Saint John is still rather anemic.

Hopefully everything in the pipeline for SJ will give it a big boost in the months and years to come.

[bingun]

Population Estimates for 2025 Q3

Preliminary demographic estimates indicate that Canada's population decreased by 76,068 people (-0.2%) over the third quarter of 2025, standing at 41,575,585 on October 1, 2025.

Ontario (-0.4%) and British Columbia (-0.3%) saw the largest population decrease in the third quarter of 2025, followed by Manitoba and the Northwest Territories (both -0.2%). Every province and territory except Alberta and Nunavut (both +0.2%) saw population decreases, according to preliminary estimates.

Preliminary estimates show that the reduction in the number of non-permanent residents in Canada (-176,479) in the third quarter of 2025 was the primary reason for the decrease in Canada's population over this period.

This drop in non-permanent residents surpassed the decreases in the second (-58,719) and first (-55,194) quarters of 2025 and was the largest since comparable records began (the third quarter of 1971).

With these preliminary estimates, every province and territory had fewer non-permanent residents on October 1, 2025, than on July 1, 2025 (excluding Nunavut, +10). The largest decrease was seen in Ontario (-107,280), followed by British Columbia (-26,242), Quebec (-15,989) and Alberta (-10,605).

On October 1, 2025, there were 2,847,737 non-permanent residents in Canada (6.8% of the total population), down from 3,024,216 on July 1, 2025 (7.3% of the total population). The decrease in the estimated number of non-permanent residents was the result of larger, record-high outflows (339,505)—that is, permits expiring—compared with inflows (163,026), which reflect permits issued.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/251217/dq251217b-eng.htm

[MonctonRad]

All four Atlantic provinces showing a slight population loss in the last quarter, but, this is also true for Canada as a whole.

[mylesmalley]

Still blows me away to see a New Brunswick creeping up on 900k and Nova Scotia nearing 1.1 million.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

Still blows me away to see a New Brunswick creeping up on 900k and Nova Scotia nearing 1.1 million.

Nova Scotia is only 9k short of 1.1M now, but only gained 3k year over year.

New Brunswick is 32k short of 900k now, but it gained about 5k year over year.

So NB should hit 900k in 5-6 years, ie early 2030's.

NS should hit 1.1M in about 3 years, around 2028 likely.

Still impressive for both our provinces.

PEI is inching up on 200k as well. 18k to go, but at ~2.5k a year it'll take them to the mid-2030's to crack that point.