The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[bridgeoftea]

Originally Posted by SevenSquared

I'm shocked that there are still people who believe in the possibility of the CFL being successful in Moncton.

We saw rapidly diminishing returns in each Touchdown Atlantic that was held in Moncton. The last time was an embarrassment, with an "announced" 10,000 that was actually far less than that, despite loads of free tickets given away around the city. Sure, the Schooners group accelerated the downfall with their horrible PR job, but still....

For starters, for the CFL to work in a city of 200,000, you need assurances that the rest of the province's football fanbase will completely buy in for the long haul. All of it. This means the predominant football fan demographic in the Saint John and Fredericton regions, whose opinion of Moncton seems virtually unanimous these days, is expected to turn over a new leaf, commit to spending thousands of dollars per year on tickets & traveling here every 2nd weekend, to cheer on what would very much be a Moncton-based team. We're really expecting this to magically happen?

The current dynamic between the 3 biggest cities in this province is as far as you can get from Saskatchewan. Especially as it relates to the lightning rod that is Moncton.

Personally I'd forego spending the hundreds of millions needed to turn Medavie Stadium into a viable CFL stadium (and white elephant, let's be honest), and instead try to get a pro team in a sport that's popular among more of our local population these days. We need a community team, not a provincial one.

100% agree on this. I think the differences between the cities wouldn't work like a Roughriders scenario. Personally if I a CPL team landed in Moncton I'm more likely to make that commute than Halifax.

I would be curious if there is ever a CPL 2 or CPL 3 (including pro/rel or not) if we'd get a team in Fredericton or Saint John. The Canada Games stadium definitely has more capacity than the BMO Centre or what ever the soccer field is called in Fredericton.

Also agree with the CFL feels like it missed it's chance to get a Maritime team back maybe 20 years ago? Around NB there is a strong NFL / Patriots contigent and think those roots have dug deep into fandom. (regardless of the USA issues these days)

Then you add the cost of a stadium that would need to host the games and very few every year.

[Taeolas]

Considering how adverse UNB has become to sharing their facilities; no way in hell will CPL ever get a team in Freddy, at least not on the BMO field on the hill.

If Freddy were to go for a pro Soccer team, we would likely need to upgrade one of the ScotiaBank fields at Willie O'Ree or Grant-Harvey. Probably the Willie O'Ree field, since the Grant Harvey field is rather close to the road and would be though to do much with.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by SevenSquared

I'm shocked that there are still people who believe in the possibility of the CFL being successful in Moncton.

We saw rapidly diminishing returns in each Touchdown Atlantic that was held in Moncton. The last time was an embarrassment, with an "announced" 10,000 that was actually far less than that, despite loads of free tickets given away around the city. Sure, the Schooners group accelerated the downfall with their horrible PR job, but still....

For starters, for the CFL to work in a city of 200,000, you need assurances that the rest of the province's football fanbase will completely buy in for the long haul. All of it. This means the predominant football fan demographic in the Saint John and Fredericton regions, whose opinion of Moncton seems virtually unanimous these days, is expected to turn over a new leaf, commit to spending thousands of dollars per year on tickets & traveling here every 2nd weekend, to cheer on what would very much be a Moncton-based team. We're really expecting this to magically happen?

The current dynamic between the 3 biggest cities in this province is as far as you can get from Saskatchewan. Especially as it relates to the lightning rod that is Moncton.

Personally I'd forego spending the hundreds of millions needed to turn Medavie Stadium into a viable CFL stadium (and white elephant, let's be honest), and instead try to get a pro team in a sport that's popular among more of our local population these days. We need a community team, not a provincial one.

I'm not even so sure about the success, I just think the only way the CFL could actually be a success in the maritimes, is if there were two teams with a rivalry, and not just a single team in Halifax for all of Atlantic Canada with no regional rival.

As for "the current dynamic between the 3 biggest cities in this province is as far as you can get from Saskatchewan", I don't know about that. I've always felt New Brunswick was far more analogous to Saskatchewan, while Halifax and Nova Scotia is far more analogous to Winnipeg and Manitoba.

Saskatoon and Regina are almost 3 hours apart, whereas in NB, you can drive from Moncton to Saint John to Fredericton in about the same amount of time.

Like, there's only 9 home games per season + playoffs in the CFL right? I don't know how much of a stretch it would be to get people from Saint John, Fredericton, and other communities to support less than a dozen games per year.

Personally, I really don't care for the CFL, but I'm familiar with with the league as a part of Western Canadian culture, and I think New Brunswick could end up embracing it similarly to the way Saskatchewan does.

I'd much rather Moncton get a CPL team than a CFL team if it was one or the other, but I'm not sure it has to be one or the other situation... nor do I think a 20-30k stadium in Moncton would automatically be considered a "white elephant".

[someone123]

There is no regional rival for the CPL in Halifax and the Wanderers were #1 in the whole country for attendance in 2024. They sold out some games, so presumably attendance would have been higher with a better stadium.

[bingun]

I would love for there to be a CPL team in New Brunswick. I've wanted to go up to watch a Halifax game a few times now, but with the time commitment involved and other things on the go, it hasn't worked out yet. Having the team downtown is awesome and much more similar to Europe. I hate the concept of big stadiums outside the city with huge parking lots that everyone has to drive to.

Moncton seems the obvious choice, but I am biased and would love to see something in Saint John one day, even if it's unrealistic. My fantasy project would be a stadium in the south end, perhaps where Lantic Sugar or Lower Cove is, right by the water, as part of a larger redevelopment. The ocean and the working port in the background would be really unique.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Baseball seems to be one of the most popular sports in Saint John... I think the south end would make a great location for a ballpark, and the backdrop of the Port and Uptown Saint John skyline really would be quite awesome.

Either Moncton or Saint John (but probably not both) could get a CPL team if they had a motivated ownership group, as I assume the CPL eventually wants 20 teams in the league.

I think soccer would be far better supported than the failed attempts at pro basketball teams, especially since soccer is the most popular sport, by far, among newcomers in New Brunswick.

[nwalbert]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Baseball seems to be one of the most popular sports in Saint John... I think the south end would make a great location for a ballpark, and the backdrop of the Port and Uptown Saint John skyline really would be quite awesome.

Either Moncton or Saint John (but probably not both) could get a CPL team if they had a motivated ownership group, as I assume the CPL eventually wants 20 teams in the league.

I think soccer would be far better supported than the failed attempts at pro basketball teams, especially since soccer is the most popular sport, by far, among newcomers in New Brunswick.

I am surprised to hear you say that. I would have ranked hockey, basketball and soccer all ahead of baseball. Maybe even football ahead of baseball in SJ.

The Wanderers game in Saint John had a really great turnout which is promising.

[SevenSquared]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Either Moncton or Saint John (but probably not both) could get a CPL team if they had a motivated ownership group, as I assume the CPL eventually wants 20 teams in the league.

I strongly believe that if they each had owners with the competence, commitment and passion for soccer shown by Halifax's owner, Moncton and Saint John could both sustain successful CPL franchises simultaneously. Probably wouldn't get the numbers at the level of Halifax or Ottawa, but certainly mid-pack in the league or better.

Wanderers have been a huge success at the gate for the same reasons the Toronto and Vancouver teams have been dismal failures thus far: big fish in the local sports scene, owners that understand soccer and its culture, compact stadium in a centrally located area of the city.

Last I heard, CPL's breakeven point for attendance was around 4000 fans per game. That's so much more realistic in cities of 200,000 with non-existent pro sports alternatives, than it is in mid-sized or larger areas where you're directly competing against much higher-profile CFL teams (and MLS teams in some cases!) and get little visibility... not to mention how comparatively awful the experience can be when the team has to play in an oversized cavernous CFL stadium with 4 times the capacity you'd ever need for a CPL team.

[MonctonRad]

Interesting chart found on the Canada section:



Moncton up there with the big boys, and, the impressive growth has been sustained for (more than) a decade.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Interesting chart found on the Canada section:



Moncton up there with the big boys, and, the impressive growth has been sustained for (more than) a decade.

I remember that even in the late '90s and early 2000s, Moncton was frequently recognized as one of the fastest growing cities in the country. This upward trend has already been underway for nearly three+ decades at this point.

[MonctonRad]

This was in the Canada section statistics thread. I thought it was interesting:

[sailor734]

^ Makes you wonder if our homeless crisis isn't more about lack of mental health services and/or rampant meth/fentanyl use than lack of affordable housing.

[bingun]

Quarterly population numbers were released this morning. In short, all four Atlantic provinces experienced positive population growth, albeit at a lower rate than in previous years. NB growth was the strongest, but PEI had a very high growth rate relative to its population size.

Canada - 41,651,653 (+47,098)
NB - 869,682 (+2668)
NS - 1,093,245 (+2388)
PEI - 182,657 (+1368)
NL - 549,911 (+455)

I will take a closer look at the more in-depth statistics when I get a chance.

Positive signal for developers in Atlantic Canada?

[KnoxfordGuy]

I would have thought NB would have started losing population by now. That good ole New Brunswick defeatism still strong in my mind. It's our default setting.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by bingun

Quarterly population numbers were released this morning. In short, all four Atlantic provinces experienced positive population growth, albeit at a lower rate than in previous years. NB growth was the strongest, but PEI had a very high growth rate relative to its population size.

Canada - 41,651,653 (+47,098)
NB - 869,682 (+2668)
NS - 1,093,245 (+2388)
PEI - 182,657 (+1368)
NL - 549,911 (+455)

I will take a closer look at the more in-depth statistics when I get a chance.

Positive signal for developers in Atlantic Canada?

Very positive news! I'm encouraged by the strong results for NB.

The long dark era of cultural defeatism in NB has come to an end. Aside from a few pockets in the north, the rest of the province is doing well, and, it holding it's own compared to it's larger sibling (NS).

It would appear that NB continues to grow at more than 10,000 people per year. In that case, we should be at 900,000 by 2028.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

I would have thought NB would have started losing population by now. That good ole New Brunswick defeatism still strong in my mind. It's our default setting.

Tough to get out of that mindset when much of Canada likes to keep that mindset (even when data shows something else).

Obviously this is Q data but if I was an insane local booster, I might point out that NS and NB grew more than Ontario, not just per capita, but gross total. That does not happen often.

QC had a monster quarter after a down quarter 2.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901

[Taeolas]

Nice growth in NB. ~10k/year at that rate, means we'll hit 900k by 2028, and could hit 1M by 2040. A slowdown from earlier, but if the government does some recruitment drives, we might reasonably be able to target for 1M by 2035ish.

[new kid in town]

Any chance we're we getting breakdown by cities with this update?

[KnoxfordGuy]

That won't be till January with the CMA and CA release.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by bingun

Quarterly population numbers were released this morning. In short, all four Atlantic provinces experienced positive population growth, albeit at a lower rate than in previous years. NB growth was the strongest, but PEI had a very high growth rate relative to its population size.

Canada - 41,651,653 (+47,098)
NB - 869,682 (+2668)
NS - 1,093,245 (+2388)
PEI - 182,657 (+1368)
NL - 549,911 (+455)

I will take a closer look at the more in-depth statistics when I get a chance.

Positive signal for developers in Atlantic Canada?

With numbers like these, I still think New Brunswick could surpass Nova Scotia in population one day. It would take ambitious plan and long term strategy to grow the population in the big 3, along with plans to get the smaller cities into growth mode.

I still think Atlantic Canada should be pushing to sustain historic levels of international immigration, and rise to the challenge with the most ambitious housing strategy in the history of the province.

However, Halifax and Nova Scotia seem to have a more ambitious strategy and vision for their province and primary city than New Brunswick seems to have for its province and primary three CMAs. I think our goal should be to hit 1 million well by 2035, and think even bigger things for the province into the future for the next generations.

As someone who moved here from much colder cities in Western Canada, I think Atlantic Canada is a fundamentally nicer place to live due to the climate and scenery. I really think the Maritimes should be cleaning up in terms of attracting international migrations, because of how much more pleasant the climate and scenery is here compared to much of Western Canada outside of BC. Clearly, international migrants have recently discovered New Brunswick in a big way and the province is better off for it.

Even if we can't get the federal government to commit to keeping our international migration levels high in Atlantic Canada, I think there's a lot of internal migrants we can attract, who are simply fed up with the harsh winter climate of the prairies, and many other places to the East of New Brunswick that have much harsher winters.

Once the Saint John, Moncton, and Fredericton CMAs have a higher combined population than the Halifax CMA on its own, I think New Brunswick could at least have a chance at surpassing Nova Scotia in population... all it would take is the right type of economic growth, some luck, and the right strategy.