Calgary 2013 Civic Census

[para transit fellow]

Rocky View County announced they are now at 38,055

pretty big number for something considered a "rural community"

http://www.discoverairdrie.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5884&Itemid=151

[ByeByeBaby]

Originally Posted by MasterG

Airdrie is around 35km, which would be a stretched LRT line, particularly if it had a stop every km or 2 like the other lines. Those stops would add up the minutes.

What do commuter rail lines cost? Given Airdrie's situation, I assume there would be alot of work to double track and station work downtown + other stops. But the route is there, as are all major bridges over the Bow etc. Likely no need for any further grade separation immediately.

Rolling stock + a few hundred million for track + stations? is that too low?

The 2009 Calgary Regional Partnership transit study put commuter rail at ~$250M for the downtown station, overall infrastructure etc. plus ~$350M per line for the Airdrie, Cochrane and Okotoks/High River lines, so something on the order of $600M for the Airdrie line, IIRC.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by para transit fellow

Rocky View County announced they are now at 38,055

pretty big number for something considered a "rural community"

http://www.discoverairdrie.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5884&Itemid=151

Rocky View County is a massive area - their own web-page lists 16 communities distributed within it. Doesn't makes sense to point to the total population to justify calling it anything other than rural. It IS rural.

[Jimby]

Calgary should swallow the M.D. of Rockyview before it throws up another Cross Iron Mills Mall.

[para transit fellow]

Originally Posted by Jimby

Calgary should swallow the M.D. of Rockyview before it throws up another Cross Iron Mills Mall.

That would make Calgary slightly smaller than area of PEI.

[Chadillaccc]

So if Airdrie is at 49 000 and Rocky View is at 38 000 what would our CMA + Okotoks/High River be?

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by MasterG

Would a commuter rail line work better? the distance is huge and most are only getting off on a few stops (Airdrie, Airport, 16th or 32 ave business access, Downtown).

Surely that is easier and much cheaper than a full new LRT line. Airdrie seems a no-brainer for commuter rail (once the transit connections are in place at the stops along the way)

Perhaps when Airdrie is 100,000+ and deerfoot is mega-congested?

so like in 10 years then, when Calgary has gained another 300,000 people and Airdrie is fast approaching 100,000

[MasterG]

Originally Posted by WIGS

so like in 10 years then, when Calgary has gained another 300,000 people and Airdrie is fast approaching 100,000

Thats not too far off, I can definitely see it being very useful by then. Built? you would have to ask the government about that but my answer is not a chance. (maybe we can convince them to fund transit because it passes through the rural districts that are there favourite)

[Chadillaccc]

Well think about the case for Vancouver. Their rapid transit system, by absolute length, is much larger than ours... but relative to population size, ours is much more extensive. Within 10 years we will have the SE line under construction and the NC line approved (most likely) all with Calgary at 1.6 million (theoretically). The West Coast Express only exists to get people from Abbotsford-Mission to Vancouver. It is easy to think, then, that Calgary could build a similar small-scale Commuter Rail. A North line to Airdrie, with a stop at the Airport, and a South line to Okotoks (probably 50 - 70 000 people by this time) with a stop at Heritage (Mixed C-train/Commuter rail station) to get commuters to and from Southeast Industrial, with a main stop downtown. It is possible, but most likely improbable.

[MichaelS]

I think you are being very optimistic with your construction timelines unfortunately...

[Chadillaccc]

Awe, well booo to that!

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

So if Airdrie is at 49 000 and Rocky View is at 38 000 what would our CMA + Okotoks/High River be?

Foothills MD (Okotoks and High River included) is around 60K.

[fusili]

Something we missed in the discussion earlier: Beltline has 1,105 units under construction (I am guessing the first Guardian tower, Alura, Park, Aura, Drake, Calla, Mark all counted as U/C) and 510 vacant units, which I am assuming are primarily units that are completed but no move ins yet. We might see a massive jump in Beltline's population when these 1500 units are occupied over the next couple of years. I assume Drake, Alura, Aura and Calla will all be occupied before the next census period.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by fusili

Something we missed in the discussion earlier: Beltline has 1,105 units under construction (I am guessing the first Guardian tower, Alura, Park, Aura, Drake, Calla, Mark all counted as U/C) and 510 vacant units, which I am assuming are primarily units that are completed but no move ins yet. We might see a massive jump in Beltline's population when these 1500 units are occupied over the next couple of years. I assume Drake, Alura, Aura and Calla will all be occupied before the next census period.

That makes more sense. With a rental vacancy rate of ).5% in the Beltline there won't be many empty units around.

Indeed, we should will see a huge jump in Beltline pop in the next 2-3 years. Lots of good stuff coming up for the Beltline.

[Spring2008]

Originally Posted by fusili

Something we missed in the discussion earlier: Beltline has 1,105 units under construction (I am guessing the first Guardian tower, Alura, Park, Aura, Drake, Calla, Mark all counted as U/C) and 510 vacant units, which I am assuming are primarily units that are completed but no move ins yet. We might see a massive jump in Beltline's population when these 1500 units are occupied over the next couple of years. I assume Drake, Alura, Aura and Calla will all be occupied before the next census period.

Yeah, Keynote 2 started move-ins in June, so that's close to 300 units that will be added by next Census. Also, don't forget about Aura 2, they've already started excavating.

Ellis Don has started site prep at the Bentall tower site which should be 30+floors, and keeping my fingers crossed that Brad Lamb finally gets going soon on 6th and 10th. Those two combined will also add about another 500 units.

Then there's the huge lists of proposals for the Beltline in addition to the above. Once better linkages with downtown start to form, I think 5-10 new towers per year for the Beltline is definitly plausible.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by fusili

Something we missed in the discussion earlier: Beltline has 1,105 units under construction (I am guessing the first Guardian tower, Alura, Park, Aura, Drake, Calla, Mark all counted as U/C) and 510 vacant units, which I am assuming are primarily units that are completed but no move ins yet. We might see a massive jump in Beltline's population when these 1500 units are occupied over the next couple of years. I assume Drake, Alura, Aura and Calla will all be occupied before the next census period.

I guess even the Mustard seed will count in future censuses. Live on Park and Mark won't be far behind.

[Chadillaccc]

Originally Posted by Spring2008

Yeah, Keynote 2 started move-ins in June, so that's close to 300 units that will be added by next Census. Also, don't forget about Aura 2, they've already started excavating.

Ellis Don has started site prep at the Bentall tower site which should be 30+floors, and keeping my fingers crossed that Brad Lamb finally gets going soon on 6th and 10th. Those two combined will also add about another 500 units.

Then there's the huge lists of proposals for the Beltline in addition to the above. Once better linkages with downtown start to form, I think 5-10 new towers per year for the Beltline is definitly plausible.

Sorry I'm totally out of the loop, what is this Bentall tower? Is it a new Beltline Office Tower? a 30 story office tower could be around 120 meters tall.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

... Within 10 years we will have the SE line under construction and the NC line approved (most likely) all with Calgary at 1.6 million (theoretically).
...It is easy to think, then, that Calgary could build a similar small-scale Commuter Rail. A North line to Airdrie, with a stop at the Airport, and a South line to Okotoks (probably 50 - 70 000 people by this time) with a stop at Heritage (Mixed C-train/Commuter rail station) to get commuters to and from Southeast Industrial, with a main stop downtown. It is possible, but most likely improbable.

I hope the SE line is under construction in 10 years, as Calgary in 2023 will probably be somewhere between 1.4-1.5M people, but not 1.6M unless we increase current growth rates and keep them higher than presently.

and Okotoks doesn't have the water for 70k people, unless they import from Calgary and other municipalities. They had a population cap since 1998 of 30,000 that they scrapped (foolishly, in my opinion) last year, even though the Sheep River can only support ~32,000 people.

just sayin'

[Spring2008]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

Sorry I'm totally out of the loop, what is this Bentall tower? Is it a new Beltline Office Tower? a 30 story office tower could be around 120 meters tall.

No, rental apartment tower being developed by Bentall Kennedy directly east of Colours on 13th ave. Without naming names, somebody had it as their avatar pic for awhile. Looks to be similar height to Mark and pretty nice design from what I saw. Site prep happening now. Ellis Don demolishing an old 1 storey building along the western border of the site.

[Jimby]

Also there is the Bentall proposal for a residential tower at 15th Av and 12 St SW which I believe now has a DP.