The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Is there a benefit to Quispamsis and Riverview continuing to cosplay as towns rather than declaring themselves a city like Dieppe?

If they were to become cities, there would be a requirement to provide bilingual municipal services; down to bilingual street signs.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Helladog

I’ve comedically brought this up before, and it’s true the branding is not on Saint John’s side for sure. That said, a different name would be a hard sell and the idea wouldn’t go anywhere.

In the end, anyone who matters already knows the difference. It’s up to City leadership to get out and sell the city as it stands to those who don’t.

Would it really be that hard of a sell in an amalgamation situation? It seems people in KV want absolutely nothing to do with being part of an entity called Saint John, but if the regional municipality wasn’t named after Saint John, it perhaps wouldn’t be such a hard sell.

Saint John would still be named Saint John, but the region as a whole, would be named something else. Basically like
what happened with Sydney’s amalgamation, they didn’t call it the Sydney Regional Municipality, they called it the CBRM.

I wouldn’t go as far as saying that anyone who matters already knows the difference. Every prospective migrant, tourist, or company matters, and many of them do not know the difference, and can you blame them? The names remain nearly identical.

[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

If Saint John is amalgamated by then, I’d really hope we’d go with a new name for the region as a whole. I know some people think Saint John’s name confusion with St. John’s isn’t a big deal, but I think it’s a much bigger deal than many are willing to admit, and one that is hard to quantify and find statistics on. It greatly impacts Saint John’s ability to market and brand itself, not just for tourism, but immigration too.

All I know for sure is that he naming confusion impacts Saint John more negatively than it does St. John’s, and that it would be good to figure out a way to deal with this issue once and for all. Changing the spelling from St. John to Saint John wasn’t it, but amalgamating and going with a new name for the region could be just the prescription needed to deal with the naming confusion between the Atlantic Canada’s two oldest cities with incredibly similar names.

No sure where you get this idea there's confusion between St. John's and Saint John. Yes, there may the occasional media story where someone mixes up the two; but the vast majority of people know the difference between the two. If anything, it's using the spelling of the river for Saint John which creates confusion. And this comes from personal experience having lived in both Saint John and St. John's.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Ozabald

No sure where you get this idea there's confusion between St. John's and Saint John. Yes, there may the occasional media story where someone mixes up the two; but the vast majority of people know the difference between the two. If anything, it's using the spelling of the river for Saint John which creates confusion. And this comes from personal experience having lived in both Saint John and St. John's.

Talk to people from west of NB often? Can’t tell you how many people go out
of their way to be ignorant of Atlantic Canadian geography, or how common it is in Western Canada to call the entire maritimes, “Newfoundland”.

There’s a lot of pervasive attitudes and stereotypes about the maritimes and Atlantic Canada from people in the rest of Canada, especially the prairies, many of whom have never been here once.

Many people who’ve moved to Saint John from Western Canada don’t even bother saying Saint John, NB anymore when asked, “where is it you moved again?” for a fifth or sixth time, and they’ve learned to just say New Brunswick instead, as it just leads to less confusion. The amount of times I’ve heard something like “I thought that was in Newfoundland”, or something like that when talking to educated people from Western Canada might surprise you..

Didn’t surprise me though, as it’s no wonder why they get confused about it.

It would be pretty confusing too, if there was a Fort McMurray in Alberta & a Ft. MacMurray’s in Saskatchewan, which were both regional centres noted for the oil industry.

If the Saint John Region amalgamated and named the municipality after the region, and not the city of Saint John, like the Cape Breton Regional Municipality did— we’d be killing two birds with the same stone, and be better off for it.




Projected Largest CMA’s in 2050

1) Halifax, NS - 896,535
2) Moncton, NB - 340,249
3) St. John's, NL - 328,010
4) Saint John, NB - 190,528
5) Fredericton, NB - 186,366
6) Charlottetown, PE - 162,468
7) CBRM (Sydney), NS - 159,926


Not exactly shocking that some people find two of the biggest cities in the region having an incredibly similar name. It’s not my idea, it’s my experience dealing with Canadians from outside the region.

[Beaubassin]

The Shediac POPCTR will likely be over 10,000 by the end of 2024, which will make Shediac a candidate to become a Census Agglomeration. Since it usually takes two census cycles before a Census agglomeration is created, it will most likely only happen in 2031 at it's earliest.

Here are some of my predictions regarding what will happen to the Moncton CMA.

• The Shediac CA will include the newly created municipality of Beausoleil due to the manual adjustment rule (core) because a part of the core is within the CSD.
  
• The Shediac CA will be short-lived though, because it will be instantly absorbed by the Moncton CMA, due to having an interchange rate over 35%.
  
• Cap-Acadie will likely be left out of the Moncton CMA for a while, unless the Shediac POPCTR grows into it's CSD or it's commuting patterns change drastically.
  
• Champdoré might be added to the CMA due to the forward commuting flow rule, although it's hard to tell without commuting numbers of the newly formed CSD's
  
• The Community of Three Rivers will most likely be added to the CMA due to the forward commuting flow rule.
  
• I'm not sure how the rural district is going to work out since it's all over the place

I made a quick sketch of what the Moncton CMA might look like in 2031:

[NBNYer]

Originally Posted by Beaubassin

The Shediac POPCTR will likely be over 10,000 by the end of 2024, which will make Shediac a candidate to become a Census Agglomeration. Since it usually takes two census cycles before a Census agglomeration is created, it will most likely only happen in 2031 at it's earliest.

Here are some of my predictions regarding what will happen to the Moncton CMA.

• The Shediac CA will include the newly created municipality of Beausoleil due to the manual adjustment rule (core) because a part of the core is within the CSD.
  
• The Shediac CA will be short-lived though, because it will be instantly absorbed by the Moncton CMA, due to having an interchange rate over 35%.
  
• Cap-Acadie will likely be left out of the Moncton CMA for a while, unless the Shediac POPCTR grows into it's CSD or it's commuting patterns change drastically.
  
  

Someone seemingly in the know once posted on this forum that commuting into the Moncton POPCTR was actually slightly higher for Beaubassin than it was for Shediac. Not sure how true this is of this data is available.

[MonctonRad]

Thanks Beaubassin - a thoughtful analysis!

I think Cap-Acadie will eventually become part of the CMA. It is at the far end of the exurban commuter watershed.

I agree though that Tantramar (Sackville) probably never will. At 50 km, it is getting just a little too far away, and, it is a very self sufficient town, especially with Mount Allison University, so, I don't think we will ever see the commuter threshold exceeded.

Your map has a date of 2031. I think it may take a tad longer than this for all of this to transpire.

[adamuptownsj]

RD 7 drives me nuts. 8 different sections across two counties. It's the only one like that, has hardly any population, and hardly any community of interest. Annex all of it to neighbouring municipalities, leave it up to the residents for each one or do it by edict. No way there's more than 500 people in it. The only inhabited parts are south of Riverview and Taylor Village across from Dorchester. This is not a viable entity.

Fundy Rural District may be similarly chopped up in 4 but there's like 6,700 people between Welsford, Browns Flat, Mispec, Hunter Lake, and the Kingston Peninsula.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Population Change 2019-2023

- Halifax, NS: 55,974 (518,711-462,737), +12.1%
- Moncton, NB: 23,893 (178,971-155,078), +15.4%
- St. John's, NL: 14,218 (232,039-217,821), +6.5%
- Charlottetown, PE: 10,640 (90,648-80,008), +13.2%
- Fredericton, NB: 9,967 (119,059-109,092), +9.1%
- Saint John, NB: 7,636 (138,985-131,349), +5.8%
- CBRM (Sydney), NS: 7,402 (109,962-102,560), +7.2%

I know that things never remain constant, but, ignoring that, lets assume these growth rates remained constant for the next 25 years - what would be the populations of these metropolitan areas in 2050?

Projected Metropolitan Populations of Atlantic Canadian Cities in 2050 (all things remaining constant)

1) Halifax, NS - 896,535
2) Moncton, NB - 340,249
3) St. John's, NL - 328,010
4) Saint John, NB - 190,528
5) Fredericton, NB - 186,366
6) Charlottetown, PE - 162,468
7) CBRM (Sydney), NS - 159,926

Can you imagine a Halifax of nearly 900,000 people? A city that would be nearing a million residents by 2060? What would this mean for public transportation needs and for basic road infrastructure? HRM officials need to be discussing this right now!!

The Central Maritime Corridor (Halifax/Moncton/Saint John as well as intervening communities) will likely be be at least 1.8M people by 2050. Serious discussions need to be occurring regarding the re-establishment of a regional passenger rail service along this corridor. Where will highways need to be upgraded? Will Halifax to Truro on the 102 need to be six lanes? I could see similar up the KV from Saint John, and around Moncton (including the 15 to Shediac).

People need to be planning now.

Does your projection include the Shediac region joining Moncton's CMA? Shediac's growth has been impressive.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri

Does your projection include the Shediac region joining Moncton's CMA? Shediac's growth has been impressive.

No. My projections are based on current boundaries.

Halifax CMA now includes East Hants. That is also not included in the 2023 estimate or in future projections.

We have no idea of the geographic extent of the CMAs 27 years into the future. They will undoubtedly be larger, hence, the future CMA populations will also likely be larger that in my estimate using current boundaries.

[DyAm00394]

Released today by Royal LePage:

Source: https://www.royallepage.ca/en/reales...estate-markets






The only Atlantic cities that ranked in the top 15 affordable cities in Canada is:

• Saint John, NB = #2
  
  
• St. John's, NL = #7
  
  
• Fredericton, NB = #11
  
  
• Charlottetown, PEI = #14

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

No. My projections are based on current boundaries.

Halifax CMA now includes East Hants. That is also not included in the 2023 estimate or in future projections.

We have no idea of the geographic extent of the CMAs 27 years into the future. They will undoubtedly be larger, hence, the future CMA populations will also likely be larger that in my estimate using current boundaries.

Those are all impressive numbers, maybe we'll finally see an NHL team in Halifax one day when the population approaches/surpasses 1M. They would likely sell a lot of tickets from Moncton residents/corporations which will likely be around 400,000. I know most NHL fans from Moncton would easily attend 6-12 games annually since it's an easy day trip.

The Halifax-Moncton corridor will reach 2M+ one day, my guess is in 35-50 years. Salt lake just landed a team with a metro population of 1.2M. Also the biggest factor is Gary Bettman will be gone , hopefully his replacement isn't as "Anti-Canada".

[Beaubassin]

Originally Posted by NBNYer

Someone seemingly in the know once posted on this forum that commuting into the Moncton POPCTR was actually slightly higher for Beaubassin than it was for Shediac. Not sure how true this is of this data is available.

Cap-Acadie (Beaubassin Est + Cap-Pelé) has slightly worse commuting numbers then Shediac as of the 2021 census. Cap-Acadie has about ~27% of workers who commute to the delineation core, while Shediac is around ~35%. In order for it to be included, there must be a minimum of 50% of workers commuting to the delineation core. Shediac only get's included the CMA due to rule 7 (Merging adjacent CMAs and CAs and secondary core rule). Because Shediac will be a Census Agglomeration, it can be merged with an adjacent CMA if the commuting interchange is at least 35%.

7. Merging adjacent CMAs and CAs and secondary core rule: A CA adjacent to a CMA can be merged with the CMA if the total percentage commuting (journey to work) interchange between the CA and CMA is equal to at least 35% of the employed labour force living in the CA, based on place of work data from the previous Census Program. The total percentage commuting interchange is the sum of the commuting flow in both directions between the CMA and the CA as a percentage of the labour force living in the CA (i.e., resident employed labour force, excluding the no fixed workplace address category).

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri

Those are all impressive numbers, maybe we'll finally see an NHL team in Halifax one day when the population approaches/surpasses 1M. They would likely sell a lot of tickets from Moncton residents/corporations which will likely be around 400,000. I know most NHL fans from Moncton would easily attend 6-12 games annually since it's an easy day trip.

The Halifax-Moncton corridor will reach 2M+ one day, my guess is in 35-50 years. Salt lake just landed a team with a metro population of 1.2M. Also the biggest factor is Gary Bettman will be gone , hopefully his replacement isn't as "Anti-Canada".

Bettman's American strategy was a success, for the most part. His concession to Canada, the revived Jets, couldn't fill the smallest arena in the league this year or last. Sure, Atlanta and Phoenix didn't work, but Phoenix is hardly solely on Bettman's shoulders, and they're staying 'south' anyway.

Quebec City to Colorado worked, as did Hartford to Carolina. If we want to count Minnesota to Dallas, that worked too, but it was at the start of his tenure (as were the new teams in Florida and Anaheim). His expansions into Nashville, Columbus, Minnesota, Las Vegas, and Seattle were unequivocal wins.

Our miserable currency and lower household income vs. the US' mean an American 1.2M person metro is much stronger than a Canadian 1.2M metro for a hockey team. Canadian taxes don't help either.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Bettman's American strategy was a success, for the most part. His concession to Canada, the revived Jets, couldn't fill the smallest arena in the league this year or last. Sure, Atlanta and Phoenix didn't work, but Phoenix is hardly solely on Bettman's shoulders, and they're staying 'south' anyway.

Quebec City to Colorado worked, as did Hartford to Carolina. If we want to count Minnesota to Dallas, that worked too, but it was at the start of his tenure (as were the new teams in Florida and Anaheim). His expansions into Nashville, Columbus, Minnesota, Las Vegas, and Seattle were unequivocal wins.

Our miserable currency and lower household income vs. the US' mean an American 1.2M person metro is much stronger than a Canadian 1.2M metro for a hockey team. Canadian taxes don't help either.

I agree, I think it will take a numbers closer to 2M between Halifax(1.5M)-Moncton(500k), it would at least become a possibility at that point. You'll likely have 600k+ between Fredericton and Saint-John and possibly another 250k+ with Charlottetown. Being able to draw from 2.5-3M for original six games, most weekend games, playoffs and 1.5-2M for the remaining games should be sufficient IMO. I think it's a real possibility we start hearing chatter/rumors in ~35 years

[RR Drummer]

Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri

Those are all impressive numbers, maybe we'll finally see an NHL team in Halifax one day when the population approaches/surpasses 1M. They would likely sell a lot of tickets from Moncton residents/corporations which will likely be around 400,000. I know most NHL fans from Moncton would easily attend 6-12 games annually since it's an easy day trip.

The Halifax-Moncton corridor will reach 2M+ one day, my guess is in 35-50 years. Salt lake just landed a team with a metro population of 1.2M. Also the biggest factor is Gary Bettman will be gone , hopefully his replacement isn't as "Anti-Canada".

👍🏼 agreed 100% on that & 100000% on the Bettman comment. 😱

[Bishop2047]

The only benefit I can see to an NHL team setting up in the Atlantic compared to anywhere the US would be the lack of competition with other pro sports. This is not enough to overcome the dollar and tax rates.

Even so we are a ways down the line even for Canadian choices. No doubt QC gets a kick at the can before us, and the GTA should already have a franchise.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

The only benefit I can see to an NHL team setting up in the Atlantic compared to anywhere the US would be the lack of competition with other pro sports. This is not enough to overcome the dollar and tax rates.

Even so we are a ways down the line even for Canadian choices. No doubt QC gets a kick at the can before us, and the GTA should already have a franchise.

I agree but 35-50 years is a long time. I wouldn't be surprised if the NHL has 40 Teams by then.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri

I agree but 35-50 years is a long time. I wouldn't be surprised if the NHL has 40 Teams by then.

I think they are already planning on 36 teams.

How many teams is too many teams???

[Taeolas]

36 teams is already probably pushing the limit. Many more and they'll probably have to look at splitting the league in two or something; running them independently (no cross-league play), and maybe doing the Cup final between the top of each subleague. It would be a tough decision to make if/when it comes up, and I doubt it would happen in most of our lifetimes.

But that's probably about the only way we would see a Halifax "NHL" team, joining with QC, Toronto2, Hamilton, KW, and other "Near 1M" club Canadian cities.