Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

Probably not.

I'm assuming this is in reply to:
Would it extend to observant jews? Observant Muslims? Mormons? JW?

Yes?

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

I'm assuming this is in reply to:
Would it extend to observant jews? Observant Muslims? Mormons? JW?

Yes?

Probably not to minority beliefs.

I don't agree to thought policing, but I understand that it wasn't serious.

[sailor734]

Getting away from the topic of "is or isn't Faytine a loon...and if you think she is are you anti Christian"

It's been suggested in media that healthcare is emerging as the major topic of this election.

Do you agree?

My take on it is that both the Liberals and the PC's partly are right. It needs more funding but it also needs major changes to the way the system is structured (a system and structure that is decades old)

The problem I see for Higgs is that the Libs saying "we'll spend XXX millions more" is a simple concept to sell to voters. Saying "we need to undertake major changes in the way healthcare is delivered and how the system is structured" is not.....and it would probably raise the specter of closures or service reductions in smaller centres.

[Taeolas]

Yeah we need some major system reforms as has been pointed out.

But we've already seen hints of what Higgs's version of reforming the system are (closing hospitals, cutting services, etc...) and we've already very vocally rejected those methods. If Higgs wants a chance, he needs to come up with some hints of a new plan for reforming the system that doesn't cut services too much outside the cities and bigger towns. And I don't think he has any ideas for that.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Getting away from the topic of "is or isn't Faytine a loon...and if you think she is are you anti Christian"

It's been suggested in media that healthcare is emerging as the major topic of this election.

Do you agree?

My take on it is that both the Liberals and the PC's partly are right. It needs more funding but it also needs major changes to the way the system is structured (a system and structure that is decades old)

The problem I see for Higgs is that the Libs saying "we'll spend XXX millions more" is a simple concept to sell to voters. Saying "we need to undertake major changes in the way healthcare is delivered and how the system is structured" is not.....and it would probably raise the specter of closures or service reductions in smaller centres.

Cost of living, housing and parental rights are more than likely big ones as well. Holt says she'll reduce the cost of power by 10 percent. Not as likely good as a two percent reduction of the HST.

[sailor734]

I’d agree on the first two.

As to parental rights I see the whole policy 713 thing as contrived. Dog whistle politics for the base. It seems to be getting attention way out of proportion to the numbers involved. I feel other pressing issues in education are far more important and deserving of the government’s attention. However, the PC’s obviously think it’s a winner so we’ll see. The question is will it gain them any new support or just energize what they already have?

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I’d agree on the first two.

As to parental rights I see the whole policy 713 thing as contrived. Dog whistle politics for the base. It seems to be getting attention way out of proportion to the numbers involved. I feel other pressing issues in education are far more important and deserving of the government’s attention. However, the PC’s obviously think it’s a winner so we’ll see. The question is will it gain them any new support or just energize what they already have?

Parental rights is more than a dog whistle. There is actual fear of the consequences of social transition; the impacts to safe unisex spaces, and fairness in sport.

The UK has been debating this extensively; and the overall view is a key recommendation from the cass report suggesting that prepubescent social transition should be managed in conjunction with the parents/carers.

Services should establish a separate pathway for pre-pubertal children and their families. ensuring that they are prioritised for early discussion about how parents can best support their child in a balanced and non-judgemental way. When families/carers are making decisions about social transition of pre-pubertal children, services should ensure that they can be seen as early as possible by a clinical professional with relevant experience. https://cass.independent-review.uk/h.../final-report/

The review from Dr.Cass suggests that parents are the key stakeholder in this exploration, with suitable medical support. I agree.

I would disagree that a teacher, while well intentioned, would have the knowledge and skills required to manage this event.

Dr Cass also found most of the “evidence” as described by WPATH to be inconclusive or problematic at best.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Getting away from the topic of "is or isn't Faytine a loon...and if you think she is are you anti Christian"

It's been suggested in media that healthcare is emerging as the major topic of this election.

Do you agree?

My take on it is that both the Liberals and the PC's partly are right. It needs more funding but it also needs major changes to the way the system is structured (a system and structure that is decades old)

The problem I see for Higgs is that the Libs saying "we'll spend XXX millions more" is a simple concept to sell to voters. Saying "we need to undertake major changes in the way healthcare is delivered and how the system is structured" is not.....and it would probably raise the specter of closures or service reductions in smaller centres.

Here’s a question: where could Faytene do the most damage? Minister of Education? Minister of Health?

• Video Link
***Not a real doctor, but a chiropractor

Her YouTube is truly a treasure trove of misinformation and culture war BS. Her and Higgs are truly a match made in heaven with their fixation on divisive social issues and identity politics. I could see them taking Blaine’s divisive social policy stuff to new heights if Higgs can pull off a third term.

It’s sad to think this is what the Progressive Conservative Party has turned into, as it’s eerily similar to Albertan and Sask Party style conservatism, which New Brunswickers should want absolutely no part of!

Higgs and Faytene want fixate on a few key areas of controversy and keep their promises incredibly vague and simple, like “defending parental rights” and a “2% cut to the HST”.

Meanwhile, Susan Holt is focussed on a wide range of economic issues facing New Brunswickers. She’s laid out a plan for comprehensive tax reform, she’s committed to completely removing the HST from both new builds and people’s power bills, she’s committed to key investments in healthcare and education, she’s promised to implement rent caps, and has a plan to get 30,000 new homes built by 2030.

It’s astonishing the choice isn’t so obvious for some here in a forum focussed primarily around construction and development. Her plan to eliminate the HST on new construction will do far more to spur on development than Higgs’s incredibly uninspired idea to cut the HST by 2%.

[sailor734]

Given the track record of the last two Liberal premiers I don’t think it’s entirely unreasonable for a certain number of voters to be “twice burned three times shy” to paraphrase the old saying.



I’m no Higgs cheerleader but I also have reservations about the Liberals

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Given the track record of the last two Liberal premiers I don’t think it’s entirely unreasonable for a certain number of voters to be “twice burned three times shy” to paraphrase the old saying.



I’m no Higgs cheerleader but I also have reservations about the Liberals

The whole province was burned by Allward too though, right? (And Higgs was his finance minister)

Higgs getting a third term just seems absurd at this point. Quite a few people got burned by Higgs too, especially those who were hoping to go to a NB university tuition free.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

The whole province was burned by Allward too though, right? (And Higgs was his finance minister)

Higgs getting a third term just seems absurd at this point. Quite a few people got burned by Higgs too, especially those who were hoping to go to a NB university tuition free.

Why, just to party for free? University is nearly useless anyways. They can make their own way like we all had to. For a province that needs so much, why are we talking about free University?

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

Why, just to party for free? University is nearly useless anyways. They can make their own way like we all had to. For a province that needs so much, why are we talking about free University?

No one is talking about tuition free university this election cycle, that was a program introduced by Gallant and scrapped by Higgs. Holt has no plans to bring back that program.

But how cynical! Iirc, students from low income families studying tuition free had to maintain a certain GPA to keep getting their tuition paid. So it wasn’t just a program for “free partying”

Holt is definitely focussed on the stuff the province needs more, like better healthcare, more housing, and targeted cost of living policies.

Her plan to eliminate the HST on power bills and new builds will help people out far more in terms of cost of living, and getting new housing built.

[ChampduLarge]

Re: track record of last two Liberal Premiers. I made a post on the NB Poll forum that seems to have gotten lost, but it seems to bear repeating here.

When I actually look at deficits and surpluses in New Brunswick, what I found is that the relationship between parties and the rise and fall of the deficit is not so clear. For the period 2014-2023 I found data from the Auditor General, from another government report I found it going back to 2008.

Overlaying the debt/surplus with premiers, you get this:

Shawn Graham (2006-2010)
2008: Surplus of $241
2009: Deficit $152
2010: Deficit $695 (highest ever)

David Allward (2010-2014)
2011: Deficit $617
2012: Deficit $244
2013: Deficit $533
2014: Deficit $608

Brian Gallant (2014-2018)
2015: Deficit $371
2016: Deficit $269
2017: Deficit $125
2018: Surplus $59

Blaine Higgs (2018-)
2019: Surplus $64
2020: Surplus $41
2021: Surplus $400
2022: Surplus $769
2023: Surplus $1013

What I see here is the following: No question that Higgs has produced the biggest surpluses in the last long while and has paid down the debt, that's a good thing.

Brian Gallant inherited a massive deficit from David Allward and did the hard work of bringing it to a surplus.

David Allward oversaw a string of massive deficits and is the only one who never produced a surplus.

Shawn Graham saw the financial position of the province worsen considerably, but I will point out that at the federal level Harper took us from a surplus of 9.6 billion in 2007-08, to a deficit of 55.6 billion in 2009-10.

For me the picture that emerges is not one of consistent Liberal overspending and able Conservative stewardship. The worst of the four of them is Allward. Graham's era saw the position of the government worsen, but that was repeated at the federal level under Harper, it was the times. Gallant laid the foundation for Higgs.

Where left-leaning governments may be criticized for expanding entitlements, conservative governments are often just as financially irresponsible by giving tax cuts, often targeted to the wealthiest among us, and have just as often shown a disregard for balanced budgets. Higgs has done well to pay down the debt, but for me, I would rather benefit from more investment in the province, in education and health care, than the tax cut. And that's how I will vote.

My overall point is that people associate conservative governments with fiscal prudence and liberal ones with carelessness, a stereotype that lingers, even though the truth is much more complicated.

[new kid in town]

Thanks for the compilation. I also posted on the poll thread that also seems to have been ignored--the rhetoric that conservatives have that it can only ever be surplus or deficit, and no middle ground where we also get much-needed services for health, housing and/or education is ridiculous.

To add on to that, health is taking a big focus on the election. It's very noticeable on facebook. And I noticed that deflection and whataboutism is always the excuse of Higgs' supporters (i.e., health is a national problem and not just NB).

However, NBers are suffering NOW and Higgs isn't willing to retain nurses, passed on bonuses that other maritime provinces provided their own nurses, only for reports to show that NB has spent the MOST on travel nurses, which he now claims is the reason he finally has a deficit, and that's what matters. Not to mention there are other aspects of health outside of the nursing workforce.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

One area I wish the Liberals would get back into is lowering beer prices.

There’s some very easy solutions to lowering the cost that the next government could do:

#1 Lower the minimum sale price on beer sold in NB
#2 Allow Grocery stores to set their own sale prices on beer and wine.
#3 Abolish the depot system monopoly on cheap beer and wine in NB (allow some cheaper beer and wine products to be available at regular ANBL stores and rural locations)

The depot system is especially stupid. There’s cheap beer made in Saint John that is only available for sale in St. Stephen, Salisbury, Bathurst, Campbellton, and Edmundston. Monctonians can at least drive to Salisbury to buy the Miller High Life made in Moncton for only $35 a 24 pack, but it’s still ridiculously arbitrary why they can’t just sell this beer at other ANBL locations, even if for a few dollars more.

I’ll give Higgs credit for at least letting grocery stores sell beer and wine within their existing stores (and not making them build adjacent, but separate stores to sell beer and wine outside the main grocery store, like Sask and Alberta require)
However, the implementation of his liberalization plan for liquor sales left a lot to be desired. For a guy that supposedly champions free market principles, he should have pushed for the grocery stores to have more freedom to set prices on alcohol as they saw fit.

Grocery stores being able to set sale prices that beat ANBL sale pricing would have forced ANBL to start lowering better sale prices at their stores to retain customers. This is essentially what happened in Sask.

Brad Wall shut down half of the SLGA stores and allowed grocery stories and private entities to open up private liquor stores and set their own sale prices to compete with the SLGA stores. What ended up happening is the government owned SLGA stores started offering the best sale prices on beer I’d ever seen in Sask.

Blaine Higgs; however, is no Brad Wall. The best we’d get out of Higgs is a 2% cut to the HST.

[sailor734]

Interesting new federal poll from Abacus.

When you take out Quebec and look at the ROC the CPC is at 50% and (even more interestingly) the Liberals are in 3rd place behind the NDP

https://abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit...a-september-2/

[sailor734]

New Nanos poll. is there actually a floor for Liberal support or are they really in absolute freefall?
I do wonder about the rise in the NDP shown here though. It doesn't seem in keeping with the conventional wisdom.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/drea...source=twitter

edit.....This is also the first suggestion I've seen that the two Liberal ridings around Moncton might actually be in play. Not sure if I really believe that but who knows.........if the freefall continues

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

New Nanos poll. is there actually a floor for Liberal support or are they really in absolute freefall?
I do wonder about the rise in the NDP shown here though. It doesn't seem in keeping with the conventional wisdom.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/drea...source=twitter

edit.....This is also the first suggestion I've seen that the two Liberal ridings around Moncton might actually be in play. Not sure if I really believe that but who knows.........if the freefall continues

Beausejour certainly isn't going anywhere. Moncton-Dieppe... maybe? It did go blue 35.7-23.2 in 2011 when it featured Riverview.

EDIT: Mainstreet also shows NDP up. CPC 44, Lib 19, NDP 20.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Beausejour certainly isn't going anywhere. Moncton-Dieppe... maybe? It did go blue 35.7-23.2 in 2011 when it featured Riverview.

It would truly have to be the end times for Don Dominic to lose Beausejour.

Moncton is a tad more vulnerable, but, Ginette Petitpas Taylor remains personally popular, and, as you pointed out, since the riding no longer includes Riverview, the tendency of the electorate will be more Liberal than in the past. If the Tories pick the right candidate however, anything might be possible.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Beausejour certainly isn't going anywhere. Moncton-Dieppe... maybe? It did go blue 35.7-23.2 in 2011 when it featured Riverview.

EDIT: Mainstreet also shows NDP up. CPC 44, Lib 19, NDP 20.

Do you think that support will do the NDP any good in terms of seats or will it just mean they come second ahead of the Liberals in more ridings that the CPC win?

I'm thinking the latter.