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Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri
I respectfully disagree, given Canada is such a young country almost all cities were tiny/small except for the major centers (Montreal, Toronto etc).
Also if you take the three cities average growth rate(%) since 2001 and apply it to the next 25 years Moncton could/should be roughly 2x larger.
Moncton @ 2% growth over 25 years = 293,670
Saint John @ 0.5% growth over 25 years = 157,441
Fredericton @ 1.25% growth over 25 years = 162,419
If you apply the recent growth numbers over 25 years:
Moncton 10,351 x 25 years = 258,775 + current pop 178,971 = 437,746
Saint John 3,420 x 25 years = 85,500 + current pop 138,985 = 224,485
Fredericton 4,543 x 25 years = 113,575 + current pop 119,059 = 232,634
The realistic answer likely lies somewhere in between those two projections but i wouldn't be surprised if all 3 cities surpass either projections.
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...by_census#1901
SJ was literally in the top 5-8 cities in Canada for the first 4 censuses. Moncton will never even come close to cracking the top ten, ever. It’s easy to punch out these numbers based on recent trends, but there’s nothing to back them up in the long term.
Things are far more cyclical than many of you seem to believe. Saint John’s decline coincided with opening of the St. Lawrence seaway, and a large part of Saint John’s resurgence has been due in part to growth Port Saint John. Cargo shipping is wildly different today than it was even 30 years ago, the ships are getting more and more massive, and these behemoth ships can’t navigate the St. Lawrence, but they can absolutely call upon Saint John and Halifax. Saint John has quite a lot of strategic, logistical advantages compared to Halifax, primarily being that SJ is less isolated and closer to the large population centres, and it’s rail connections are more extensive… CPKS for example can get cans from SJ all the way down to Mexico. There’s all kinds of opportunities for growth in the Saint John economy due to the port, that simply don’t exist for Moncton and Fredericton.
Moreover people from west of the Maritimes aren’t steeped in the “Saint John sucks” stereotypes that are all too common throughout the maritimes, and especially here in New Brunswick. People from Quebec and Ontario and elsewhere have been buying up ocean-view real estate in Saint John, because it’s undervalued. We may very well be the only metro area in Canada where people actually pay more money to be further away from the ocean, because it’s seen as more desirable to live away from the foggy sea side city, but this is finally changing— large in part due to outside influence and investment in Saint John’s real estate market. Ask NBers to rank the top 3 cities in NB, and the results will shock no one, SJ will be ranked third. Ask people from outside the region who’ve visited all three cities on a vacation, and many will list SJ first.
Canada has the longest coastline in the world, but it might surprise many that Saint John is actually the 5th largest coastal CMA in Canada after Vancouver, Halifax, Victoria, and St. John’s. That’s pretty significant. Lots of people romanticize living near the ocean, and it’s one of the best, unique things Saint John has going for it despite a lack of capitalization building tall residential buildings near the coast to take advantage of those coastal views. Something Moncton is doing a tremendous job in comparison, despite not having anywhere near as stunning coastal views as Saint John.
Don’t be surprised if by 2050 the numbers are far greater for SJ than what you have listed, or if Moncton’s growth slows down. Greater Saint John won’t be overtaking Metro Moncton anytime soon, but it’s absolutely not out of the question eventually. Again, things are far more cyclical than many of you seem to believe. We may all be dead by 2100, but it wouldn’t surprise me if by then Saint John was back in the number 1 spot. History has a tendency to repeat itself. Now might be Moncton’s time to shine, and good for Moncton! SJ has quite a lot to learn and emulate from Moncton’s success. However, SJ’s unique advantages due to its coastal geography simply aren’t things that can be emulated or replicated really anywhere else in NB. NB’s cities should care less about competing against each other, and care more about cooperating together in order to compete with Nova Scotia, and improve the brand that is New Brunswick. Nova Scotia has terrific branding and marketing, as does PEI and Newfoundland… New Brunswick has a long way to go.
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. Compare Moncton to Other 130,000-180,000 CMA's and again the numbers are incredibly impressive
Saint John was the largest city and metro area for the overwhelming majority of New Brunswick’s history, and is Canada’s first incorporated city. Your claim is entirely off base and not historically accurate. 
Probably doesn't help that a couple of us Monctonians are kinda chatty on the national forum so tend to forget that there are actual active "other than Moncton" posters around; we're not exclaiming to an empty room, haha. 
lol. If we're being honest Moncton's already hosted the largest events in the Maritimes, even larger than Halifax. Rolling Stones, AC/DC etc, the annual National Car show which I believe is still the largest in Canada and it's more of a city festival than a car show at this point. Moncton's geographical location is likely why it always punched way above it's weight when it comes to hosting significant events, we draw everyone from NB's north coast + PEI.
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