Quote:
Originally Posted by darkharbour
T hat's not historically accurate, since at one time Saint John was by all accounts a large city in Canada. 
I'd argue with the continued growth of all cities across the country, Moncton will still be a small city even at 200,000 in the CMA because the bar will continue to move; Halifax is a mid-sized city and it is more than twice as populous by comparison.
I do agree that it will be good for the province as a whole, it's definitely not a competition at this point, given the growth of all three large NB cities they will continue to bleed closer together and the divisions will hopefully diminish over time. |
I respectfully disagree, given Canada is such a young country almost all cities were tiny/small except for the major centers (Montreal, Toronto etc).
Also if you take the three cities average growth rate(%) since 2001 and apply it to the next 25 years Moncton could/should be roughly 2x larger.
Moncton @ 2% growth over 25 years = 293,670
Saint John @ 0.5% growth over 25 years = 157,441
Fredericton @ 1.25% growth over 25 years = 162,419
If you apply the recent growth numbers over 25 years:
Moncton 10,351 x 25 years = 258,775 + current pop 178,971 = 437,746
Saint John 3,420 x 25 years = 85,500 + current pop 138,985 = 224,485
Fredericton 4,543 x 25 years = 113,575 + current pop 119,059 = 232,634
The realistic answer likely lies somewhere in between those two projections but i wouldn't be surprised if all 3 cities surpass either projections.
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