DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[gopokes21]

Originally Posted by DenverInfill

Thanks, honorary Denver-thread member mhays for your always-insightful comments! Something needs to give because our one-size-fits-all transit agency covering an area of 1000+ square miles with a board elected from geographic districts just isn't working.

This x 1000

Queue up the chain of responses saying "Do you know how transit governance even works" and "I know more than you..."

Clearly how it works now isn't working, and hard to argue with someone who says "I know more than than you" because they probably do.

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Buses have been working for Cap Hill for decades. And Cap Hill is effectively a zero growth area. I am not sure that is where I think we should be putting our transit dollars, versus in areas that can (or least, will) still accommodate the next generation of growth in Denver.

Do you understand how transit governance works in Denver, and why we keep drawing distinctions at the City/County line? (You pulled Austin in - again, more regional tax base.) RTD is a trainwreck and Fastracks was largely a waste, I do not think you'll get much disagreement here. Nobody here is loudly advocating for finishing the B-line - but it is an albatross around the neck of our regional transit agency that cannot be ignored. It's actually really difficult (read: impossible) to take a regional agency with a Board spread over an area bigger than some states, and focus that tax base into Denver-centric transit. And it is a much, much harder discussion when you have to do it with the City alone. You are conflating apples and oranges and trying to make a point that I think most of us already agree with. But most of us have also been having this conversation for 20 years, and are more interested in having it if there is some notion of 'how can this be implemented' as part of the conversation. Does that conversation including 'settling' for what we can afford? Obviously, that is the real world. It doesn't mean that sort of incrementalism can't have value, and materially improve transportation (and arguably by extension, land use) in our City. (Note I did not say region. The City vs. region dynamics are real and can't be ignored here. I can't speak to how that compares to similar regional dynamics in Seattle, but I don't live in Seattle - I know the problem set we are dealing with here. Although, it wasn't all that long ago that we mocked Sound Transit as a joke agency that hadn't accomplished anything, and RTD was the golden child. In a lot of ways, they had the luxury of learning from our mistakes.)

You think many of us haven't studied, at length - with professional resources brought to bear - how to implement transit on the exact corridor you're talking about - Downtown to Cherry Creek to Colorado? We have. If it was easy, it would be done. But the balance of cost, ridership potential, and political will, is a tough equation to balance.

I guess to summarize - most of us are not disagreeing with you. We just know more about it than you, and it's really damn difficult to do.

Edit: Agree 100% with bobg's post.

https://www.psychiatry.org/psychiatrists/practice/dsm

[TakeFive]

Horse Pucky

Rent prices may drop ‘significantly’ in Denver soon
Mar 30, 2022 by: Kevin Torres - KDVR

DENVER (KDVR) — The fact is, rent prices have been climbing like crazy throughout the pandemic. But according to analysts over at RentCafe and Yardi Matrix, a massive number of new apartments are coming on board in the Mile High City in the coming months that will help stabilize rent prices.

Their data shows in the Denver metro area alone, towards the end of the second quarter, beginning of the third quarter, somewhere around 10,000 new units will be coming on board.

Somebody over at Yardi Matrix needs to put down the Hookah Pipe. Is it possible he saw the 245 unit project above and added a zero? Is it possible there's 3,000 triplexes under construction that I'm not aware of?

For sure I wouldn't know of every project but my projection is for a modest number of new units finishing through the 3rd quarter with the numbers rising over the following 18 months given the number of more recent, often larger starts.

Anybody else out there, Bueller, know where these 10,000 new units are?

[DenverInfill]

According to our DenverInfill tracker, there are currently 10,500 units in some stage of development (concept plan through under construction) in just the River North and Golden Triangle districts alone.

[mhays]

CoStar lists 20,178 apartments (just rentals) underway in the Denver metro. They list quarterly deliveries for 2022 of 1,586, 3,714, 3,071, and 3,140 in that order. Their 2023 deliveries top out over 2,900 for two quarters then start to drop based on underway work and expected trends. Vacancies are in the mid-6 range and slowly rising.

The biggest current jobs they list are 2535 E 40th (700), Ridgegate Station (504), Novel Rino (483), The Plaza Fitzsimmons (461), Vario 2900 Brighton (459), Lincoln Station (425), Evans West (420), X Denver (410), Residences at RiNo (397), and MICA RiNo (397).

[mhays]

Their big 2022 starts are Plaza Fitzsimmons, Vario Brighton, Lincoln Station, Evans West, Fox Iron Works (385), Arista Broomfield (325), 3309 Central Park (307), 696 Sherman (305), and 3650 Uinta (301)

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by gopokes21

Clearly how it works now isn't working, and hard to argue with someone who says "I know more than than you" because they probably do.

I never defended transit governance or funding in the Denver metro. I merely meant that if you’re going to scream for subways like a high schooler screams for anarchy, it might be worth taking the time to understand the challenges in your proposed “solution.”

[TakeFive]

I can work with this

Originally Posted by DenverInfill

According to our DenverInfill tracker, there are currently 10,500 units in some stage of development (concept plan through under construction) in just the River North and Golden Triangle districts alone.

Let's say everything gets built including those that haven't yet broken ground, that's probably a 3 year window. But we'll be more optimistic and say 2 years and one month (makes the math easy).

Assuming we're an assembly line those 10,500 units over 25 months is 420 units per month. Then I got to musing... and guessed that you and Ryan have a final update about every other month. To check myself I went and checked. I found the Fitzgerald two days ago and prior to that the (mostly) finished Rye SoBo. Those two projects total 567 units over the 1st quarter or 189 units per month. This would suggest that my 3 year window which would be 291 units per month may be more accurate.

So I'll go with 300 units per month and somehow believe twice that many units is completed in the rest of the metro area (every month); sounds realistic, maybe, but I would have no idea where they are. In any case that would total 900 units per month or 2,700 units per quarter.

Giving Yardi TWO FULL months the average says we should see 1,800 new units. Perhaps another two projects squeezes into that window for a total of 2,500 units. Now that I could believe is possible; not sure it happens.

-------------------------

Originally Posted by mhays

CoStar lists 20,178 apartments (just rentals) underway in the Denver metro. They list quarterly deliveries for 2022 of 1,586, 3,714, 3,071, and 3,140 in that order. Their 2023 deliveries top out over 2,900 for two quarters then start to drop based on underway work and expected trends. Vacancies are in the mid-6 range and slowly rising.

So supposedly closer to 3,000 per quarter. Actually calculating the given numbers for 2nd and 3rd quarters comes out to 1,130 per month or 2,261 for two months which is right in between my calculated 1,800 average and the 2,500 I generously allowed could happen. Now we just need to imagine another 7,500 units somehow appearing out of the Mile High thin air.

Footnote: Nuggets lost tonight but it was a great game in front of an enthusiastic full house.

[TakeFive]

I'm still sleuthing

The Citizen
I knew this project was close. LMC's new 373 unit project in the Golden Triangle is indeed now leasing units. I'll call this a 2nd quarter project as only a few units are currently available but more units will be released through April, May and June.

The Fitzgerald
Despite Ryan's always excellent Final Update there are as yet no units available nor any release dates for availability. I'll assume units start leasing sometime within the 2nd quarter.

Arvada Co
Milender White broke ground on 100 new affordable units June of last year.
High Street Residential & CBRE Investment were to break ground last October on 252 units at Olde Town Arvada.

Parker Co
I found one subsidized project - South Range Crossing - that released a Vimeo in March showing many buildings with completed exteriors while other are are in progress. It's a 204 unit project with reportedly a June opening.

Aurora Co
In addition to the newly opened project posted above there's a couple of recently started projects with a long long way to go.

Lakewood Co
ZOCALO is converting an office building into 218 income restricted apartments which may be starting to lease units.

Englewood Co
A 119 unit project by Alpine Investments may have broken ground after receiving financing in January.

Northglenn Co
I recall posting about Karl's Farm by Southern Land Co. They broke ground on 385 units June of last year.

So far I've found nothing in Centennial or Commerce City (except a 180 unit HUD project in some phase of construction) or Littleton. I haven't yet bothered with Boulder County.

Originally Posted by mhays

The biggest current jobs they list are 2535 E 40th (700), Ridgegate Station (504), Novel Rino (483), The Plaza Fitzsimmons (461), Vario 2900 Brighton (459), Lincoln Station (425), Evans West (420), X Denver (410), Residences at RiNo (397), and MICA RiNo (397).

Familiar with most of these. AFAIK, none are close to be completed.

The Plaza Fitzsimons never came to fruition but the site was bought by the same group building One River North as they announced construction had started in January for a 370 project.

With respect to Lincoln Station, Century Communities just broke ground this March on a 425 unit project with projected completion in 2024.

With respect to Ridgegate Station the update is that Regency Partners closed on the land site July of last year and did start construction (540 units). It was reported in January of 2021 that Regency had broken ground on 240 units at Sky Ridge Station with a 'suggested' completion fall of this year but those suggestions are typically way off. No signs yet of any pending units being rented.

[TakeFive]

Have I ever mentioned how much I Love Infrastructure Investments
It's like buying a house or building an apartment project. It's a 30-year investment as apposed to money that merely goes down a rabbit hole.

Denver’s getting the cash it’s been asking for
Mar. 30, 2022 By Kevin Beaty/Denverite

Last year, Mayor Hancock and a whole bunch of his supporters made a show on the banks of the South Platte River about a symbolic document. His “Memorandum of Understanding” didn’t really do anything, but it was meant to show the federal government that Denver was ready and eager to accept $350 million to pay for sweeping renovations of the South Platte River and Harvard and Weir gulches.

On Tuesday, the White House announced Denver is getting that cash.

I could say a lot of nice things about Joe Biden but for now this is quite enough.

The White House’s website says the money comes from “President Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure law to strengthen port and waterway supply chains and climate resilience,” which allocated a total of $2.7 billion across the nation. The Denver project is listed as one of four “key projects” that stretch from Pennsylvania to California.

I know about the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. I know about the buckets of money for the Great Lakes. But who knew about the critical piece of infrastructure that is the So Platte River?

It helps to know how to twist the knife.

Though the project will enable more development around Confluence Park, it will also help protect westside neighborhoods that are at risk of flooding. Last year, Denver City Council member Jamie Torres told us she supported Hancock’s bid for funding specifically to help residents in those areas.

The White House’s statement specifically states the money is meant to “serve disadvantaged communities surrounding the area.”

Props to Mayor Hancock and the City of Denver

[TakeFive]

Not all deals can be Big
but sometimes a small deal can be a Big Deal.

Nice photo!


Donna Garnett poses for a portrait during a fish fry at the Dahlia Campus for Health and Well-Being, June 19, 2019. (Kevin J. Beaty/Denverite)


Bye Bye Park n Ride; Hello FreshLo Hub

Groundbreaking for Montbello’s FreshLo Hub ... is on the horizon
Mar. 31, 2022 By Desiree Mathurin/Denverite

The FreshLo Hub is a massive community-driven project that has been in the works since 2018. The Hub will take up the 1.39-acre lot at 12300 East Albrook Dr., which was purchased by the MOC for $600,000 in February 2020. The site used to be the Montbello Park-n-Ride, which closed in April 2016.

What about the money; the funding for this project?

The Montbello Organizing Committee was recently awarded $1,455,000 through federal funding for their Montbello FreshLo project, a proposed seven-story building offering affordable housing, retail stores, a cultural hub and a much-needed grocery store.

The recent funding was a part of a $1.5 trillion omnibus federal spending deal that gave Colorado projects and programs over $170 million.

How did we get here?

Project costs were initially estimated at $55 million, but with the pandemic increasing costs for supplies the new budget is around $70 million.
“We hoped we’d be moving to ground breaking sometime in the second quarter of 2022 but when there are these significant changes, like the pandemic, it causes you to work harder, work smarter and take a little longer than you had in mind.”

Note: I'd guess there will be other grants specific to the affordable housing.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

What's the increase in operating costs being driven by? I see the capital expenditure increase in having to replace the fleet, add charging infrastructure, don't see storage as an add unless these transit agencies are trying to go DG. O&M offsets would be decreased fuel and maintenance (unless you're saying that ProTerra buses are unreliable POS's which I wouldn't be surprised by given the state of the commercial fleet electrification companies).

I don't have a specific study or data source for it (maybe someone else here does?) but people woefully underestimate the cost savings of electric vs combustion transportation. Electric motors break, yes, but the number of moving parts in an electric system vs a combustion system is drastically different. If I had to guess, the maintenance savings alone over the useful life of the bus would far outweigh the capex required to upsize the fleet for existing battery capacity and run time shortfalls. If I were a mechanic, I'd be a bit worried right now because electrification of transportation has the potential to significantly disrupt that industry.

How does this relate to development? Well, we are now required to make 100% of parking electric charging ready and I think something like 2% of spaces need to have full charging infrastructure while another 5% are wired for it, but don't have the actual charging equipment installed. We are requiring the building of infrastructure that can overwhelm our grid and in the same breath not upgrading our infrastructure to be able to support that kind of demand. I call it the governance of "hopes and feels".

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

...So I'll go with 300 units per month and somehow believe twice that many units is completed in the rest of the metro area (every month); sounds realistic, maybe, but I would have no idea where they are. In any case that would total 900 units per month or 2,700 units per quarter...

Good summary and I'd tend to agree with your projection. However, I'll see your 900 units per month and raise it to 2,000 units per month sustained over a 5 year period in order to see adequate supply that would address housing costs meaningfully across the metro. After 5 years of that we could slow down by half. Remember, one housing unit for every 2.5 jobs created AND 1 housing unit for every 2.5 people of population growth. It's a pretty easy metric to measure, not so much to meet. If you drill down further, you don't really want more than 1.5 jobs per housing unit in an employment area, else your planning policies will lead to sprawl...

Why aren't cities funding and organizing Departments of Data to help guide planning decisions? Seems it could be money well spent and a potent impetus in unapologetic and bold policy making,,,

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by laniroj

How does this relate to development? Well, we are now required to make 100% of parking electric charging ready and I think something like 2% of spaces need to have full charging infrastructure while another 5% are wired for it, but don't have the actual charging equipment installed. We are requiring the building of infrastructure that can overwhelm our grid and in the same breath not upgrading our infrastructure to be able to support that kind of demand. I call it the governance of "hopes and feels".

The cost of upgrading the D&T grids to accommodate electrification of transportation and other sectors is a tough issue. You're already seeing PUC push-back on plans to de-carbonize the current system and the cost. Adding in how much it's going to cost for additional electrification is not a battle that's been undertaken. Nor do any of the greenies have any idea asides from "the cost of doing nothing is even higher!"



For instance, to support the electrification of downtown Denver you are going to need somewhere around four full blocks of additional substations in the area. Good luck finding that.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

The cost of upgrading the D&T grids to accommodate electrification of transportation and other sectors is a tough issue. You're already seeing PUC push-back on plans to de-carbonize the current system and the cost. Adding in how much it's going to cost for additional electrification is not a battle that's been undertaken. Nor do any of the greenies have any idea asides from "the cost of doing nothing is even higher!"



For instance, to support the electrification of downtown Denver you are going to need somewhere around four full blocks of additional substations in the area. Good luck finding that.

The abandoned rail yards at 8th/Osage could more than adequately accommodate the substation needs for dtown and Xcel could better utilize all the existing ground it owns in the dtown area. What Xcel and the PUC want vs what they could make work are wholly different things. Having developed elsewhere, utilities in Colorado seem to be particularly keen on getting everything they want with their eyes closed while not taking into account other factors or other utilities' needs. That's great for greenfield sprawl but at some point, utilities out here will get realistic about what is possible and workable - because they'll have to. Electrification will force the issue so no, Xcel doesn't need 4 downtown blocks. In an era when most everything is shrinking in size, fire protection equipment and electrical equipment seem to be the only things getting larger (physically). Makes no sense to me.

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Good summary and I'd tend to agree with your projection. However, I'll see your 900 units per month and raise it to 2,000 units per month sustained over a 5 year period in order to see adequate supply that would address housing costs meaningfully across the metro.

Do you suppose that’s even possible? I suspect there’s not enough labor.

[TakeFive]

I have no clue about any of this.

Originally Posted by wong21fr

The cost of upgrading the D&T grids to accommodate electrification of transportation and other sectors is a tough issue. You're already seeing PUC push-back on plans to de-carbonize the current system and the cost. Adding in how much it's going to cost for additional electrification is not a battle that's been undertaken. Nor do any of the greenies have any idea asides from "the cost of doing nothing is even higher!"

For instance, to support the electrification of downtown Denver you are going to need somewhere around four full blocks of additional substations in the area. Good luck finding that.

Last night as I was channel surfing I stopped by Red Eye Radio which is a couple of conservative 'talkers' out of Dallas. It's always fun get the latest take on why Biden and the Dems are inveterate liars and basically scary, dangerous people.

As luck would have it, they were talking about converting to EV's, an occasional topic of interest. They quoted a source (which I didn't catch) that in 2050, 80% of the vehicles on the road would still be gasoline powered. Ofc, these guys in addition to being conservative are older and life-long gearheads.

But it got me to wondering "what is a realistic time frame for converting to EV's." So I went a googling which provided little help. The obvious for me is that there will be fits and starts with various hiccups along the way. It may not be as easy or swift as many would wish.

Bottom Line: I suspect the power companies will have plenty of time to figure things out.

[Robert.hampton]

new proposal at 17th and Logan:

The property is zoned for c-ms-8; the project will consist of a six-story residential with approximately 121 units over ground-level amenity and 2,900 sf of retail. The building has a 0¿ build to line on 17th and logan. There are currently 71 spaces with ground-level parking and a basement parking level.

Looks like the developer is also putting a building up at 17th and Humboldt - nice looking renders but hopefully they don't scrape the retail already on that corner (i'll give them a pass for scraping 17th and Logan since that building is a burnt out POS!).


17th ave really picking up momentum......finally. And Colfax too along the same stretch for that matter. Maybe those dildo stores and vape shop fronts really will be filled with breweries and yoga studios some day soon

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

…And Colfax too along the same stretch for that matter. Maybe those dildo stores and vape shop fronts really will be filled with breweries and yoga studios some day soon

I hope Colfax remains Colfax, honestly. Every last square inch of this city doesn’t need to become a homogeneous yuppie playground.

Edit: Not that I’m against any new housing development - on Colfax or anywhere! More more more, I say! Anything to make a dent in the housing shortage! This housing shortage and the skyrocketing housing costs that come with it will ruin this city faster than anything. Bring it all on! At this point I don’t even care if it’s cheap and ugly; fuck it!

[bulldurhamer]

Originally Posted by Sam Hill

I hope Colfax remains Colfax, honestly. Every last square inch of this city doesn’t need to become a homogeneous yuppie playground.

no kidding. another yoga studio is exactly what this city doesn't need. more dildo shops please.

[Robert.hampton]

Originally Posted by bulldurhamer

no kidding. another yoga studio is exactly what this city doesn't need. more dildo shops please.

Listen guys, I was never advocating for yuppies to put dildo stores out of business. Simply suggesting it might be a consequence of late night party hotels being demolished in favor of lux apartments.