DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[TakeFive]

Not all deals can be Big
but sometimes a small deal can be a Big Deal.

Nice photo!


Donna Garnett poses for a portrait during a fish fry at the Dahlia Campus for Health and Well-Being, June 19, 2019. (Kevin J. Beaty/Denverite)


Bye Bye Park n Ride; Hello FreshLo Hub

Groundbreaking for Montbello’s FreshLo Hub ... is on the horizon
Mar. 31, 2022 By Desiree Mathurin/Denverite

The FreshLo Hub is a massive community-driven project that has been in the works since 2018. The Hub will take up the 1.39-acre lot at 12300 East Albrook Dr., which was purchased by the MOC for $600,000 in February 2020. The site used to be the Montbello Park-n-Ride, which closed in April 2016.

What about the money; the funding for this project?

The Montbello Organizing Committee was recently awarded $1,455,000 through federal funding for their Montbello FreshLo project, a proposed seven-story building offering affordable housing, retail stores, a cultural hub and a much-needed grocery store.

The recent funding was a part of a $1.5 trillion omnibus federal spending deal that gave Colorado projects and programs over $170 million.

How did we get here?

Project costs were initially estimated at $55 million, but with the pandemic increasing costs for supplies the new budget is around $70 million.
“We hoped we’d be moving to ground breaking sometime in the second quarter of 2022 but when there are these significant changes, like the pandemic, it causes you to work harder, work smarter and take a little longer than you had in mind.”

Note: I'd guess there will be other grants specific to the affordable housing.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

What's the increase in operating costs being driven by? I see the capital expenditure increase in having to replace the fleet, add charging infrastructure, don't see storage as an add unless these transit agencies are trying to go DG. O&M offsets would be decreased fuel and maintenance (unless you're saying that ProTerra buses are unreliable POS's which I wouldn't be surprised by given the state of the commercial fleet electrification companies).

I don't have a specific study or data source for it (maybe someone else here does?) but people woefully underestimate the cost savings of electric vs combustion transportation. Electric motors break, yes, but the number of moving parts in an electric system vs a combustion system is drastically different. If I had to guess, the maintenance savings alone over the useful life of the bus would far outweigh the capex required to upsize the fleet for existing battery capacity and run time shortfalls. If I were a mechanic, I'd be a bit worried right now because electrification of transportation has the potential to significantly disrupt that industry.

How does this relate to development? Well, we are now required to make 100% of parking electric charging ready and I think something like 2% of spaces need to have full charging infrastructure while another 5% are wired for it, but don't have the actual charging equipment installed. We are requiring the building of infrastructure that can overwhelm our grid and in the same breath not upgrading our infrastructure to be able to support that kind of demand. I call it the governance of "hopes and feels".

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

...So I'll go with 300 units per month and somehow believe twice that many units is completed in the rest of the metro area (every month); sounds realistic, maybe, but I would have no idea where they are. In any case that would total 900 units per month or 2,700 units per quarter...

Good summary and I'd tend to agree with your projection. However, I'll see your 900 units per month and raise it to 2,000 units per month sustained over a 5 year period in order to see adequate supply that would address housing costs meaningfully across the metro. After 5 years of that we could slow down by half. Remember, one housing unit for every 2.5 jobs created AND 1 housing unit for every 2.5 people of population growth. It's a pretty easy metric to measure, not so much to meet. If you drill down further, you don't really want more than 1.5 jobs per housing unit in an employment area, else your planning policies will lead to sprawl...

Why aren't cities funding and organizing Departments of Data to help guide planning decisions? Seems it could be money well spent and a potent impetus in unapologetic and bold policy making,,,

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by laniroj

How does this relate to development? Well, we are now required to make 100% of parking electric charging ready and I think something like 2% of spaces need to have full charging infrastructure while another 5% are wired for it, but don't have the actual charging equipment installed. We are requiring the building of infrastructure that can overwhelm our grid and in the same breath not upgrading our infrastructure to be able to support that kind of demand. I call it the governance of "hopes and feels".

The cost of upgrading the D&T grids to accommodate electrification of transportation and other sectors is a tough issue. You're already seeing PUC push-back on plans to de-carbonize the current system and the cost. Adding in how much it's going to cost for additional electrification is not a battle that's been undertaken. Nor do any of the greenies have any idea asides from "the cost of doing nothing is even higher!"



For instance, to support the electrification of downtown Denver you are going to need somewhere around four full blocks of additional substations in the area. Good luck finding that.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

The cost of upgrading the D&T grids to accommodate electrification of transportation and other sectors is a tough issue. You're already seeing PUC push-back on plans to de-carbonize the current system and the cost. Adding in how much it's going to cost for additional electrification is not a battle that's been undertaken. Nor do any of the greenies have any idea asides from "the cost of doing nothing is even higher!"



For instance, to support the electrification of downtown Denver you are going to need somewhere around four full blocks of additional substations in the area. Good luck finding that.

The abandoned rail yards at 8th/Osage could more than adequately accommodate the substation needs for dtown and Xcel could better utilize all the existing ground it owns in the dtown area. What Xcel and the PUC want vs what they could make work are wholly different things. Having developed elsewhere, utilities in Colorado seem to be particularly keen on getting everything they want with their eyes closed while not taking into account other factors or other utilities' needs. That's great for greenfield sprawl but at some point, utilities out here will get realistic about what is possible and workable - because they'll have to. Electrification will force the issue so no, Xcel doesn't need 4 downtown blocks. In an era when most everything is shrinking in size, fire protection equipment and electrical equipment seem to be the only things getting larger (physically). Makes no sense to me.

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Good summary and I'd tend to agree with your projection. However, I'll see your 900 units per month and raise it to 2,000 units per month sustained over a 5 year period in order to see adequate supply that would address housing costs meaningfully across the metro.

Do you suppose that’s even possible? I suspect there’s not enough labor.

[TakeFive]

I have no clue about any of this.

Originally Posted by wong21fr

The cost of upgrading the D&T grids to accommodate electrification of transportation and other sectors is a tough issue. You're already seeing PUC push-back on plans to de-carbonize the current system and the cost. Adding in how much it's going to cost for additional electrification is not a battle that's been undertaken. Nor do any of the greenies have any idea asides from "the cost of doing nothing is even higher!"

For instance, to support the electrification of downtown Denver you are going to need somewhere around four full blocks of additional substations in the area. Good luck finding that.

Last night as I was channel surfing I stopped by Red Eye Radio which is a couple of conservative 'talkers' out of Dallas. It's always fun get the latest take on why Biden and the Dems are inveterate liars and basically scary, dangerous people.

As luck would have it, they were talking about converting to EV's, an occasional topic of interest. They quoted a source (which I didn't catch) that in 2050, 80% of the vehicles on the road would still be gasoline powered. Ofc, these guys in addition to being conservative are older and life-long gearheads.

But it got me to wondering "what is a realistic time frame for converting to EV's." So I went a googling which provided little help. The obvious for me is that there will be fits and starts with various hiccups along the way. It may not be as easy or swift as many would wish.

Bottom Line: I suspect the power companies will have plenty of time to figure things out.

[Robert.hampton]

new proposal at 17th and Logan:

The property is zoned for c-ms-8; the project will consist of a six-story residential with approximately 121 units over ground-level amenity and 2,900 sf of retail. The building has a 0¿ build to line on 17th and logan. There are currently 71 spaces with ground-level parking and a basement parking level.

Looks like the developer is also putting a building up at 17th and Humboldt - nice looking renders but hopefully they don't scrape the retail already on that corner (i'll give them a pass for scraping 17th and Logan since that building is a burnt out POS!).


17th ave really picking up momentum......finally. And Colfax too along the same stretch for that matter. Maybe those — stores and vape shop fronts really will be filled with breweries and yoga studios some day soon

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

…And Colfax too along the same stretch for that matter. Maybe those — stores and vape shop fronts really will be filled with breweries and yoga studios some day soon

I hope Colfax remains Colfax, honestly. Every last square inch of this city doesn’t need to become a homogeneous yuppie playground.

Edit: Not that I’m against any new housing development - on Colfax or anywhere! More more more, I say! Anything to make a dent in the housing shortage! This housing shortage and the skyrocketing housing costs that come with it will ruin this city faster than anything. Bring it all on! At this point I don’t even care if it’s cheap and ugly; — it!

[bulldurhamer]

Originally Posted by Sam Hill

I hope Colfax remains Colfax, honestly. Every last square inch of this city doesn’t need to become a homogeneous yuppie playground.

no kidding. another yoga studio is exactly what this city doesn't need. more — shops please.

[Robert.hampton]

Originally Posted by bulldurhamer

no kidding. another yoga studio is exactly what this city doesn't need. more — shops please.

Listen guys, I was never advocating for yuppies to put — stores out of business. Simply suggesting it might be a consequence of late night party hotels being demolished in favor of lux apartments.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

Listen guys, I was never advocating for yuppies to put — stores out of business. Simply suggesting it might be a consequence of late night party hotels being demolished in favor of lux apartments.

Yuppies need dildos too, perhaps a yoga studio that sells sustainably sourced dildos that are custom fitted? Old Colfax and new Colfax in a harmonious melding.

I did notice the sheer number of motels that have shuttered along Colfax recently- that’s several hundred of the cheapest and accessible housing units in Denver that are gone without a readily available replacement. Wonder where those folks ended up?

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Denver needs up to 40,000 construction workers

https://kdvr.com/news/local/denver-needs-up-to-40000-construction-workers/

Do projects like Amacon and 1900 Lawrence have their workers lined up already or is this an issue preventing them from going from 99% construction ready to 100% construction ready?

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by Sam Hill

Do you suppose that’s even possible? I suspect there’s not enough labor.

Doubtful, but industries change quickly and with wages where they're at now, I do think the building trades are attracting more and more folks albeit very slowly. As I said before, I subscribe to the governance of hopes and feels!

[Sam Hill]

So we’re all in favor of dildos then. Good. Lol

On a different note, I have a couple friends who are electricians that work in construction (one of them worked on that huge Gaylord hotel). From what I’ve gleaned through conversation, they each make about $90k-ish - and with current job market trends, that’s sure to increase. I don’t know why the trades aren’t more popular. Someone needs to get the word out.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Denver needs up to 40,000 construction workers

https://kdvr.com/news/local/denver-needs-up-to-40000-construction-workers/

Do projects like Amacon and 1900 Lawrence have their workers lined up already or is this an issue preventing them from going from 99% construction ready to 100% construction ready?

I'll make a guess based on typical scenarios.

They have contractors. The contractors are trying to staff the salaried positions properly, but they're struggling (other projects have run a little long, they lost a few people, other work is starting too...). The same goes for the self-performed labor and foreman positions but they expect to figure those out before key scopes begin.

Most subs are selected at this point (80% of the hourly labor), but they have similar issues. These are big jobs and will be a challenge.

Maybe the project timing is based on when at least the core team is available, per the contractor. But more commonly the timing is based on developer needs and the million details they need to figure out, like final go-aheads from financial partners. The construction team won't mind because a little delay will make their lives easier...

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Denver needs up to 40,000 construction workers

Maybe some of the recent Central American immigrants will find their way up to Denver. I did pick up one rider recently who told me: "no comprende"; it was a '3rd party' paid trip.

Originally Posted by mhays

Maybe the project timing is based on when at least the core team is available, per the contractor. But more commonly the timing is based on developer needs and the million details they need to figure out, like final go-aheads from financial partners. The construction team won't mind because a little delay will make their lives easier...

I have been wondering if the volatile markets is having any rippling affects for construction - including the ongoing supply chain issues.

I see where home mortgage rates have gone from ~3% to closer to 5% in a short period of time.

My 'exercise' on the previous page did show - in spades - just how much the multifamily construction is focused in the city center.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by Sam Hill

So we’re all in favor of dildos then. Good. Lol

On a different note, I have a couple friends who are electricians that work in construction (one of them worked on that huge Gaylord hotel). From what I’ve gleaned through conversation, they each make about $90k-ish - and with current job market trends, that’s sure to increase. I don’t know why the trades aren’t more popular. Someone needs to get the word out.

Because all the youngins were sold the college field of dreams and are working $55k jobs remotely - they don't want to come home with blisters and they'd addicted to those unused gym memberships. AMIRIGHT?

[RyanD]

Originally Posted by laniroj

working $55k jobs remotely

Lol good luck living in Denver on that salary.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Because all the youngins were sold the college field of dreams and are working $55k jobs remotely - they don't want to come home with blisters and they'd addicted to those unused gym memberships. AMIRIGHT?

It's a question of career longevity. One doesn't spend 20 years working in the field without destroying your body. You've got to pivot at year ten or so and either get into management or startup your own business.

There's also the facet that there's a sizable portion of the population that's too fat and dumb to get into the skilled trades. It's similar to why the military keeps on expanding it's target market of recruits- the goods keep on getting worse and finding that quality piece that much harder.