Canadian Federal Election

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I ask this question earnestly and not maliciously.. why bother supporting democracy then? Sounds like you'd prefer a technocracy.

No, democracy is fine. I just believe the cream rises to the top and I want to be governed by our best, or at least best available.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

No, democracy is fine. I just believe the cream rises to the top and I want to be governed by our best, or at least best available.

What?
You mean to tell us you don't want to be lead by a carnival barker backbencher that's never accomplished anything of value to Canadians, nor brought any meaningful legislation forward in over 2 decades in the House of Commons?

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Personally, I think these polls are more than mere outliers, and that there are a correlations between these polls and the return of Donald Trump as well as Carney’s Canadian political debut.


The Mark Carney Daily Show interview is already nearing 3 million views on YouTube, and has been broken down into short form video clips for Insta, TikTok, YouTube, FB, Twitter, etc.

It will remain an incredibly relevant interview as long as Trump stays in the News with his insane antics toward Canada… and there’s also nothing stopping Carney from going back on Jon Stewart to do another interview or segment, especially not if Trump continues his bonkers quest to “annex Canada through economics means”. It's very much relevant to the election, and the Daily Show with Jon Stewart is one of the best formats to discuss the issue or US-Canada relations and how it impacts the politics of both countries.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Not really.

SSP is such a white collar bubble it's almost hilarious.

That's one polling organisation's data. Here's another.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Absolutely it's a big swath of the electorate. It's hard for white collar education folks to understand as they think voters have some knowledge and awareness of the policies they are voting for. It's largely based on vibes for a lot of low information votes. Though there are also people who just won't vote Liberal for historical reasons and when they decide the country needs a change they only have one choice.

I'm certainly not white collar, and I don't know too many NDP voters who would switch to the CPC, considering the ideology is polar opposite of what the NDP stands for.

One poster has provided us a link with PP's favorability ratings. He has a negative favourability rating of 20 points. That may cost the Conservatives the election, if true, especially if Carney proves to be effective, and manages to distance himself from Trudeau.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

I'm certainly not white collar, and I don't know too many NDP voters who would switch to the CPC, considering the ideology is polar opposite of what the NDP stands for.

One poster has provided us a link with PP's favorability ratings. He has a negative favourability rating of 20 points. That may cost the Conservatives the election, if true, especially if Carney proves to be effective, and manages to distance himself from Trudeau.

Even a month ago, I would have said it was virtually impossible, but with the Trump effect, a leadership bump, AND a stellar campaign, it no longer seems such a stretch. Dust will need to settle, however, to see whether Carney has a stellar campaign in him.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Personally, I think these polls are more than mere outliers....

Best indicator to me is how much conservatives are talking about Carney. Including on this forum. They'd ignore him if they thought he wasn't a threat.

[Hecate]

It’ll still be a conservative landslide according to 338… 238 seats projected.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Best indicator to me is how much conservatives are talking about Carney. Including on this forum. They'd ignore him if they thought he wasn't a threat.

Becausee he's extremely dangerous for our already fragile economy, and for some reason politically uneducated people seem to be getting tricked by his titles.

The more he speaks I think the more people will gradually see through his BS.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Hecate

It’ll still be a conservative landslide according to 338… 238 seats projected.

Likely, but, the Liberal leadership campaign is just starting and, Carney and Freeland have yet to show us what they are made of. Carney may be distanced from Trudeau, but, I think he is philosophically similar. Freeland on the other hand is steering so far to the right I'm surprised she doesn't have a crick in her neck.

Ultimately the fate of the next Canadian election rests on who people feel is better able to handle Donald Trump. Is PP the better choice because he has better right wing credentials, or, is Freeland the better choice since she did so well during the last free trade negotiations and Trump hates her guts.

I'm still confident PP will win, but, it may not be clearly a landslide. The fate of PP in government depends on how well he gets along with the Donald. Personally I think Donald is uncontrollable and will do whatever he wants, which will in turn sink PP (and Canada).

What a horrible time to be alive.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Personally, I think these polls are more than mere outliers, and that there are a correlations between these polls and the return of Donald Trump as well as Carney’s Canadian political debut.

Other polling agencies have seen a slight rebound in Liberal support, but nowhere to the extent that Drunk Franky is showing. It shouldn't be so surprising that with Trudeau gone some of the folks who defected because of him are, at least momentarily, coming home.

Support levels in the high teens to low twenties would have been quite dire for the Liberals, but I think a Trudeau-less Liberal party could probably snag around 25% or so in the upcoming election.

That's dependent on Carney winning the leadership though. Freeland's leadership campaign so far has been awful and Poilievre would destroy her in a general election.

[1overcosc]

I also would remind our friend from Saint John that EKOS has the lowest historical accuracy of the pollsters that have released this month. (And their error has almost always skewed towards overestimating the LPC. Their final call in 2021 was LPC+5, the result was CPC+2). Not to mention the serious methodological problems with Drunk Franky's polling (massive overrepresentation of university educated folks, for one).

It's not real until another pollster (ideally a panel one) confirms a shift.

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Likely, but, the Liberal leadership campaign is just starting and, Carney and Freeland have yet to show us what they are made of. Carney may be distanced from Trudeau, but, I think he is philosophically similar. Freeland on the other hand is steering so far to the right I'm surprised she doesn't have a crick in her neck.

Ultimately the fate of the next Canadian election rests on who people feel is better able to handle Donald Trump. Is PP the better choice because he has better right wing credentials, or, is Freeland the better choice since she did so well during the last free trade negotiations and Trump hates her guts.

I'm still confident PP will win, but, it may not be clearly a landslide. The fate of PP in government depends on how well he gets along with the Donald. Personally I think Donald is uncontrollable and will do whatever he wants, which will in turn sink PP (and Canada).

What a horrible time to be alive.

Sorry but Freeland has had ten years to show us “what she is made of” it isn’t much.

Same with carney. He’s no Jack Layton. He got £250,000 a year just for housing at his Bank of England job and a free driver. Over in England, they say he got lucky in Canada while he was governor of the bank, because he didn’t really turn out to be anything stellar while he was governing theirs.

And the hypocrisy of his oil investments, his coal investments. Fuck carney.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

That's dependent on Carney winning the leadership though. Freeland's leadership campaign so far has been awful and Poilievre would destroy her in a general election.

I actually think the opposite. They'll get a solid second with Freeland but they won't do much better than Trudeau would have with Carney. Folks on the right can't stand Freeland but those are people that would never vote LPC anyway. They don't need to care about those folks (in the same way that PP doesn't have to give a crap about the fact the white collar professional bubble hates him). Freeland consolidates support from the left. Carney only appeals to the base.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Build.It

Becausee he's extremely dangerous for our already fragile economy, and for some reason politically uneducated people seem to be getting tricked by his titles.

The more he speaks I think the more people will gradually see through his BS.

I'm not even remotely concerned about him winning in 2025. I am worried about him sticking around and possibly winning in 2029 and ushering in a banker-elite dystopia .

I do think the party will only let him stay if he has a solid second place finish (same with Freeland), so he's probably out as leader by the end of the year, thankfully. Then the LPC can rebuild with someone like Joly or Gould.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Changing City

That's one polling organisation's data. Here's another.

And Research Co finds PP at 52% approve with +13 net approval. https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Tables_Politics_CAN_07Jan2025.pdf

Compared to the Abacus numbers I posted upthread, those ARI figures have and about the same % of the electorate indicating they like him. The higher disapproval rating coming with a lower "unsure" category. So my point still stands - a big chunk of the electorate likes him. Enough that he can win a majority government just from the voters that do.

If you average out the data from the different pollsters you end up with PP have net approval around zero.

This narrative the white collar bubble has that PP is extremely unpopular or extremely unlikeable is simply not true. He's winning because people like him. This isn't a "double haters" situation like we saw with Trump and Biden.

I don't actually like him that much, personally, I'll add. But I don't hate him. I'd be in the grey "neither" category if I was polled.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Best indicator to me is how much conservatives are talking about Carney. Including on this forum. They'd ignore him if they thought he wasn't a threat.

Wrong read. They're talking about him not because he's a threat to their electoral prospects, but because of how repulsive he is to them. The tin foil hat influencer gang on X are using him as fodder for their wild conspiracy theories (ie. "He'll cancel all elections and introduce mandatory social credit and vaccine passports" type drivel) precisely because of that.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I also would remind our friend from Saint John that EKOS has the lowest historical accuracy of the pollsters that have released this month. (And their error has almost always skewed towards overestimating the LPC. Their final call in 2021 was LPC+5, the result was CPC+2). Not to mention the serious methodological problems with Drunk Franky's polling (massive overrepresentation of university educated folks, for one).

It's not real until another pollster (ideally a panel one) confirms a shift.

My problem with Drunk Franky and EKOS is that there rarely ever seems to be a moment of self-reflection, or a realization that maybe there's something flawed in their work.

In 2021 they had a polling miss; they had the PPC at 9.9% on their final poll, almost all of it coming off the CPC vote share. In the end the PPC received 4.9%. While this wasn't exclusive to EKOS (the other IVR polling agencies also had the PPC a bit high), instead of admitting the error, Franky doubled down. He insists that what happened was the PPC vote, at the last minute, either stayed home or completely swung to the CPC.

Now ask yourself this, what's more likely: Did EKOS capture proper sentiment for the PPC and CPC and those voters had a last minute change of heart, or were his numbers wrong, because there were plenty of other polling agencies which accurately polled the PPC and CPC at their final vote share.

He's asking us to reject the polls that got the result correct, and then trust based on his word that he was correct up until people actually entered their polling booths. And now he's doing it again.

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I actually think the opposite. They'll get a solid second with Freeland but they won't do much better than Trudeau would have with Carney. Folks on the right can't stand Freeland but those are people that would never vote LPC anyway. They don't need to care about those folks (in the same way that PP doesn't have to give a crap about the fact the white collar professional bubble hates him). Freeland consolidates support from the left. Carney only appeals to the base.

Freeland can absolutely not continue trying to position herself as the "outsider". I don't care how many current Liberal MPs are endorsing Carney over Freeland, she can't sit down and try to convince Canadians that she's the outsider here. Canadians know better, and Poilievre will be sure to remind them every chance he gets.

Carney really isn't an outsider either, but he has a better case than Freeland to make those outsider claims.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Hecate

And the hypocrisy of his oil investments, his coal investments. Fuck carney.

Poilievre and his wife are literally landlords.
You think he actually wants to fix housing?


Dude's been sucking off the government teet for 21 years, eligible for full government pension at age 31. Never brought any meaningful legislation forward in the House of Commons in his over 2 decades as an MP.

I laugh at you anti government waste types loving this guy. He should be the poster child of everything you guys claim to rail against.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Poilievre and his wife are literally landlords.
You think he actually wants to fix housing?

His wife still owns the house she originally lived in before getting married. Not exactly a rental empire. It's nowhere near as problematic as Carney pushing the narrative that we have to shut down all pipelines in the West while simultaneously investing in pipelines elsewhere in the world.

Originally Posted by Wigs

Dude's been sucking off the government teet for 21 years, eligible for full government pension at age 31. Never brought any meaningful legislation forward in the House of Commons in his over 2 decades as an MP.

You serious? Carney has gotten way from the public teat than PP ever has. And PP has had to earn it - he's gotten re-elected by his constituents. And of course he's never brought any major legislation forward - only cabinet ministers ever do that in our system. Trudeau never had any legislative accomplishments before he became PM in 2015. Neither did Harper before he became PM in 2006. This particular talking point screams of a terminally online leftist projecting American dynamics (as in the US, legislators play a much bigger role, so to be in the House for 20 years without signature legislation would be odd, to say the least).

There's plenty to dislike about PP but these are all just retarded pink-haired-TikTok garbage talking points. C'mon. You're better than that.