Quote:
Originally Posted by JHikka
It's been a while since i've done any carving up of the NB ridings but what we'll likely see is a transplant of one Northern riding to SE NB. It won't be a one-for-one, of course, but mostly making the Northern ridings larger geographically and pushing them further south. Shippagan absorbs Caraquet, Tracadie-Sheila pushes south, Miramichi Bay pushes south, Southwest Miramichi pushes south etc. until you have an additional Kent/Shediac riding.
The problem with this is still Memramcook-Tantramar as that's a weird riding to draw due to riding size and linguistic protectionism. It's possible that Shediac Bay-Dieppe gets pushed way smaller and into Dieppe, opening up space for an additional Shediac riding. It's possible we'll end up with just a 'Shediac' riding in the future, though, without having to be tagged onto Beaubassin, Cap-Pele, or Shediac Bay. The Greens did really well in Cap-Pele in 2020 so that will be interesting to see how that plays out.
The same will happen in the NW and Western NB. Northern ridings geographically become larger, push south slightly to account for the growth in Fredericton and environs.
Fredericton seems pretty straightforward - Take the more urban areas of Hanwell-New Maryland-Oromocto-Lincoln and merge them into a second Fredericton South riding, but that has big effects on those ridings and what to do with the remainder of them. I'm not sure if the redistricting committee would consider it but a riding with Oromocto-Minto-Chipman might be possible, with the western edges of those ridings being pushed into more urban Fredericton ridings.
Saint John ridings probably stay the same. The region is growing at or below provincial growth rates IIRC.
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Let me continue regarding Fredericton and Moncton/North Shore trades.
I think Fredericton is the only area to actually get a major redraw. There's a lot of tendrils directly into city limits, vs Moncton where the districts simply extend into similar, adjacent, currently-unincorporated territory.
Fredericton North can just contract somewhat. No major changes needed. Name:
Fredericton North
Fredericton-York can become a new suburban seat wrapped around Fredericton North adding territory from Fredericton-Grand Lake. One of the Carleton seats can take Stanley.
Fredericton-Devon?
Fredericton South should shift either east or west into west Fredericton or Lincoln, shrinking anyway. I would think moving east towards Fredericton's city limits and grabbing Lincoln would make sense, taking urban territory from O-L-F.
Fredericton-Lincoln
Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton should add Burton and Gagetown and lose its share of Fredericton and Lincoln. Make it a true military influence district.
Oromocto-Gagetown
New Maryland-Sunbury can likely condense to just New Maryland and Hanwell, losing its rural extremities to shore up rural seats in the southwest.
New Maryland-Hanwell
What's left of
Fredericton-Grand Lake and what's left of Gagetown-Petitcodiac can form a new rural district north of the Saint John River. G-P's eastern segments can be added to more appropriate rural/Moncton-area seats. G-P is easy to destroy.
York-Grand Lake
That leaves
Fredericton West-Hanwell to shrink into the second urban seat, with the smaller New Marylnd-Hanwell seat beneath it.
Fredericton West
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Glad to see Saint John cracking 130k and with a 3.5% growth rate since 2016. Surely CBC and co. will find a way to spin this negatively, however 
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