The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[MonctonRad]

If Charlottetown's absolute growth rate continues on as is, then it should achieve a CA population of 100,000 by 2031. Quite remarkable really. When I was growing up there in the 1970s, the greater Charlottetown area had barely 30,000 people (city proper 18,000).

There is a good chance Charlottetown could graduate to CMA status in either 2036 or 2041.

Charlottetown will be the next Atlantic Canadian CMA (Fredericton joined the club last year).

[adamuptownsj]

I presume almost all SJ growth is in Millidgeville and south of Union, with Millidgeville taking the lion's share. The Sides and the North End are likely stagnant. I assume Lower West continued to shrink. I would love to see this by ward or postal code. At some point in the next twenty years they'll have to adjust ward boundaries and add the Lower West to Ward 1 and make Ward 2 exclusively Millidgeville.

Some good ward profile info from the 2016 census is available here (pdf): https://sjhdc.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Ward-Profiles-2021-Update-1.pdf

I was surprised how much Ward 3 shrunk, but I assume much of the decline was in the Lower West and Waterloo Village. I think things have been neutral or improving since then.

[Pugsley]

I think we've yet to see the full turnaround and potential growth to come in Greater Saint John. The port is already the largest on the east coast and is in the process of increasing tonnage 3X to support the new CP rail line, so expect lots of growth and related jobs around the port and transportation. The small reactor cluster, global growth of Irving Oil into Ireland and potentially other new markets, as well as the vibrant redevelopment of the Uptown are all just starting to fuel growth.

Not to mention the eventual return of cruise ships will revitalize the tourism sector which has been on pause during a big part of this growth!

Overall, I think many Maritime cities have great futures of growth ahead!

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

Overall, I think many Maritime cities have great futures of growth ahead!

I think the secret is out, and I believe you are correct.

In Moncton, the average home price has surpassed $300,000 for the first time, and the inventory is lower than ever. This situation is present in a lot of cities in the east. A lot of this is driven by Ontario expatriates seeking a better quality and more affordable coastal lifestyle.

Ontarians are beginning to realize that the Maritime climate is relatively moderate by Canadian standards, that housing prices are affordable (at least for them), and that we are a cheaper alternative to moving to BC if you want some shorefront property (or at least easy ocean access).

There are two large apartment projects either planned or under development in the Shediac area. I think we will see more of this in the future..........

[billy1]

The numbers posted here do not include 2021 boundary changes.

Halifax will gain +/- 20,000 people and Charlottetown will be gaining +/- 4,500.

Halifax = 480,000
Charlottetown = 87,500

[billy1]

Dp

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

St John's on the other hand is just not in the best position to attract out of province, and retain immigrants (though I hope they prove me wrong). I expect steady but below average growth here.

St. John's is in a rough spot. If you listen to the government propaganda you'd think the tech sector was about to save the city and the province. The reality is most tech startups fail and a lot of them don't provide a lot of jobs until they've matured. Government may also be hitting its immigration targets, but I think they're low and there's no real benefit for anyone to immigrate here to begin with, especially compared to somewhere like Halifax.

Only big "surge" we'll see in the St. John's CMA population is whenever the boundaries are updated to include Holyrood. Not sure if that's next year or not. Other than that it's going to be a small net positive in population growth as folks from rural areas move to the city, which will only slightly offset the number of people escaping this quickly sinking ship.

[adamuptownsj]

Thinking about political consequences, an entire riding has to move to Moncton (not sure where, all the ridings are overpopulated) from the North Shore (Restigouche-Chaleur? Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore is centrally located and could be carved up). Shediac should get a much more Shediac seat. Objectively the new Moncton area seat will be typically Liberal, or by its creation one of the others will become much redder after taking on more Dieppe. So that's a wash.

Fredericton also should get a third urban riding, with one of the mixed urban rural districts moving fully to the city. Minor pain to right of center parties as the new riding could lean left or swing. Fredericton seems the most likely to be completely redrawn vs adjusted. Neither North nor South seem likely to be massively changed. New Maryland drops its extremities.

Saint John is funny because at this rate the Irving Oil refinery will end up in the Hampton-anchored riding as it creeps further past Red Head, unless they do a major redraw. Portland-Simonds has to shrink, probably leaving old Simonds Parish and getting renamed. Harbour and Lancaster probably stay the same. East has to move inwards a bit to handle Portland-Simonds contracting. Rothesay and Quispamsis do not change much.

[MonctonRad]

How much of a population bump will St. John's get when Holyrood is included?

Moncton might get a theoretical bump too if Shediac were included in our CMA, but, at present, the commuting patterns are not favourable. This might change with the readjustment of municipal boundaries coming up next year. Shediac is absorbing Scoudouc, which is definitely in the Moncton commuter watershed, which might tip the balance. If this were to happen, the Moncton CMA might get a boost of about 10-12,000 people (up to about 174,000).

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

How much of a population bump will St. John's get when Holyrood is included?

Moncton might get a theoretical bump too if Shediac were included in our CMA, but, at present, the commuting patterns are not favourable. This might change with the readjustment of municipal boundaries coming up next year. Shediac is absorbing Scoudouc, which is definitely in the Moncton commuter watershed, which might tip the balance. If this were to happen, the Moncton CMA might get a boost of about 10-12,000 people (up to about 174,000).

Somewhere near 3000. Not a huge number really, but compared to annual growth over the past 5 years it's huge lol.

[PoscStudent]

If governments don’t try and hold back the oil and gas sector (not holding my breath) then St. John’s could see a bit of an economic rebound as oil prices are nearing $100 a barrel. As Marty said, the provincial government thinks the tech sector is the saviour to our economic woes. While I think it’s a great industry to put focus on, a lot will need to happen for it to provide significant economic benefits that will lead to population growth.

[NewIreland]

By my calculations there are about 1 million people in the Saint John - Halifax horseshoe... surely this is enough to support rail service.

• Saint John
• Rothesay
• Hampton
• Sussex
• Petitcodiac
• Salisbury
• Moncton
• Sackville
• Amherst
• Truro
• Enfield
• Dartmouth/Halifax

[MonctonRad]

Agree. A Saint John/Moncton/Truro/Halifax regional rail service is overdue, and increasingly justifiable based on the fact that at least 50% of the region's population would live along the route.

Service frequency should be 3-4x per day.

[Taeolas]

It's nice to see the Fundy Horseshoe developing as the Maritime version of the Golden Horseshoe.

And yes, rail service should be a no brainer project and relatively easy to do I suspect, if VIA or some other company can get around to it. (Then again they still haven't set up rail service between Edmonton and Calgary so no-brainer plans may need more brains.)

[Hali87]

Originally Posted by DB_in_Cbus

It's interesting to see where the growth is happening in NS
...
Cape Breton: 98,635 -1666 / -1.7
...
I'm really surprised at Cape Breton. I thought they had turned a corner...

I would say that Sydney is primed for growth - the Tar Ponds are gone and there's been a decent amount of investment downtown and at the port. I think Sydney + Sydney River + Membertou will be where most of the growth is for the next while; I'm not sure about the rest of CBRM. I expect a bit of a renaissance in Sydney over the next 5 years or so and then maybe that will expand to the other centres afterwards. Anecdotally it's been very common for people to move from Cape Breton to Halifax, and many people sort of live "with one foot in each", driving back and forth every couple weeks. As remote work becomes more practical and with the housing pressures in Halifax, I think the balance will shift back towards Sydney. Cape Smokey as a functional ski resort could also be a game changer for the area - I'm planning a trip there next month to check it out.

All that said, I think growth in Sydney will still be offset by population losses elsewhere in CBRM for at least a few more years, after which I wouldn't be surprised to see rapid overall population growth as places like Glace Bay and New Waterford start to redevelop at a large scale.

Another factor is that aside from Sydney, most of the places in Cape Breton that people are currently moving to (for scenery, etc) are probably outside of CBRM, which only covers part of the island.

[Taeolas]

Yeah, the downturn in pop for CBRM is a bit disappointing, but it's probably just a hiccup. As noted, Sydney's been on a bit of a boom lately and should keep going forward. The new UCCB campus on the coast especially should help. If the city can keep the focus primarily on the Sydney portion it might get the city moving towards CMA status too. Charlottetown is still probably going to beat it, but it'll be more of a race.

[bridgeoftea]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Agree. A Saint John/Moncton/Truro/Halifax regional rail service is overdue, and increasingly justifiable based on the fact that at least 50% of the region's population would live along the route.

Service frequency should be 3-4x per day.

That would be brilliant! It would probably add extra local tourism money into the cities pockets. For most weekend getaways where you're only planning to stay in the downtown core of the city. Why not, ditch the car and just use the rail service.

It would be nice to see some hotels link up with the train to offer a package deal + shuttle to and from the platform, if it is not within walking distance, including a suitcase.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Yeah, the downturn in pop for CBRM is a bit disappointing, but it's probably just a hiccup. As noted, Sydney's been on a bit of a boom lately and should keep going forward. The new UCCB campus on the coast especially should help. If the city can keep the focus primarily on the Sydney portion it might get the city moving towards CMA status too. Charlottetown is still probably going to beat it, but it'll be more of a race.

This is an interesting point. The main impediment to CBRM eventually achieving CMA status is the fact that the population base is distributed, and the Sydney POPCTR only has about 33,000 people or so, well below the 50,000 threshold to be considered for CMA status.

If there were an in-migration (or reshuffling) of people from Donkin, Dominion, Reserve Mines and other places in CBRM to the Sydney area, then CMA status might be more achievable........

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Thinking about political consequences, an entire riding has to move to Moncton (not sure where, all the ridings are overpopulated) from the North Shore (Restigouche-Chaleur? Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore is centrally located and could be carved up). Shediac should get a much more Shediac seat. Objectively the new Moncton area seat will be typically Liberal, or by its creation one of the others will become much redder after taking on more Dieppe. So that's a wash.

It's been a while since i've done any carving up of the NB ridings but what we'll likely see is a transplant of one Northern riding to SE NB. It won't be a one-for-one, of course, but mostly making the Northern ridings larger geographically and pushing them further south. Shippagan absorbs Caraquet, Tracadie-Sheila pushes south, Miramichi Bay pushes south, Southwest Miramichi pushes south etc. until you have an additional Kent/Shediac riding.

The problem with this is still Memramcook-Tantramar as that's a weird riding to draw due to riding size and linguistic protectionism. It's possible that Shediac Bay-Dieppe gets pushed way smaller and into Dieppe, opening up space for an additional Shediac riding. It's possible we'll end up with just a 'Shediac' riding in the future, though, without having to be tagged onto Beaubassin, Cap-Pele, or Shediac Bay. The Greens did really well in Cap-Pele in 2020 so that will be interesting to see how that plays out.

The same will happen in the NW and Western NB. Northern ridings geographically become larger, push south slightly to account for the growth in Fredericton and environs.

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Fredericton also should get a third urban riding, with one of the mixed urban rural districts moving fully to the city. Minor pain to right of center parties as the new riding could lean left or swing. Fredericton seems the most likely to be completely redrawn vs adjusted. Neither North nor South seem likely to be massively changed. New Maryland drops its extremities.

Fredericton seems pretty straightforward - Take the more urban areas of Hanwell-New Maryland-Oromocto-Lincoln and merge them into a second Fredericton South riding, but that has big effects on those ridings and what to do with the remainder of them. I'm not sure if the redistricting committee would consider it but a riding with Oromocto-Minto-Chipman might be possible, with the western edges of those ridings being pushed into more urban Fredericton ridings.

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Saint John is funny because at this rate the Irving Oil refinery will end up in the Hampton-anchored riding as it creeps further past Red Head, unless they do a major redraw. Portland-Simonds has to shrink, probably leaving old Simonds Parish and getting renamed. Harbour and Lancaster probably stay the same. East has to move inwards a bit to handle Portland-Simonds contracting. Rothesay and Quispamsis do not change much.

Saint John ridings probably stay the same. The region is growing at or below provincial growth rates IIRC.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by JHikka

It's been a while since i've done any carving up of the NB ridings but what we'll likely see is a transplant of one Northern riding to SE NB. It won't be a one-for-one, of course, but mostly making the Northern ridings larger geographically and pushing them further south. Shippagan absorbs Caraquet, Tracadie-Sheila pushes south, Miramichi Bay pushes south, Southwest Miramichi pushes south etc. until you have an additional Kent/Shediac riding.

The problem with this is still Memramcook-Tantramar as that's a weird riding to draw due to riding size and linguistic protectionism. It's possible that Shediac Bay-Dieppe gets pushed way smaller and into Dieppe, opening up space for an additional Shediac riding. It's possible we'll end up with just a 'Shediac' riding in the future, though, without having to be tagged onto Beaubassin, Cap-Pele, or Shediac Bay. The Greens did really well in Cap-Pele in 2020 so that will be interesting to see how that plays out.

The same will happen in the NW and Western NB. Northern ridings geographically become larger, push south slightly to account for the growth in Fredericton and environs.


Fredericton seems pretty straightforward - Take the more urban areas of Hanwell-New Maryland-Oromocto-Lincoln and merge them into a second Fredericton South riding, but that has big effects on those ridings and what to do with the remainder of them. I'm not sure if the redistricting committee would consider it but a riding with Oromocto-Minto-Chipman might be possible, with the western edges of those ridings being pushed into more urban Fredericton ridings.



Saint John ridings probably stay the same. The region is growing at or below provincial growth rates IIRC.

I'll provide a more detailed response later (at work) but Portland-Simonds must lose some territory. Saint John's slower growth kind of masks Millidgeville's boom and the stagnation on the West and East Sides. I think the easiest solution is to have Saint John East take on more of the Inner East Side or Harbour take on a bit more North End. Or, push Rothesay into Drury Cove.

The only 'ugly' part of the Saint John map is the Hampton to Mispec leg. That area should be with East Saint John. Extent Rothesay closer to the airport, Quispamsis further into Rothesay, and Hampton into Quispamsis, ideally staying north of Loch Lomond.