Jericho Lands | 49fl | 13.6M sqft | Proposed

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by chowhou

I think you're playing a bit hard and fast with the math; For your crowding math it should be 50% passengers divided by 50% total busses, but then multiplied by 50% distance travelled meaning that if they terminate at Arbutus and halve the number of busses, the 99 should be at half its current peak crowding.

Doesn't it kind of seem wrong that if busses were coming just as often as before but only travelling between Arbutus and UBC they'd be just as crowded as the busses at Commercial Broadway today?

Not really, the 99 is crowded all the way through. We also haven't factored in induced demand: riders switching from other E-W bus routes to the faster M-Line/99 combo, or ex-drivers who switch to SkyTrain.

We also only know the numbers for westbound ridership; anecdotally speaking, the eastbound buses at UBC are nowhere close to only 50% capacity.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Not really, the 99 is crowded all the way through. We also haven't factored in induced demand: riders switching from other E-W bus routes to the faster M-Line/99 combo, or ex-drivers who switch to SkyTrain.

We also only know the numbers for westbound ridership; anecdotally speaking, the eastbound buses at UBC are nowhere close to only 50% capacity.

Well, we can either believe in the 50% get off before Arbutus number or not. Either the 99 is crowded all the way through, or it's roughly twice as crowded between Commercial-Broadway and Arbutus. It can't be both. It's not as though there's a huge amount of replacement at Macdonald or Alma, most of the riders between Arbutus and UBC are riders from the Broadway Corridor.

I absolutely agree that induced demand will bump up the transit numbers on the 99 between Arbutus and UBC, but are we really expecting it to bump up 2x? That's why I said it might make sense to go from 3 minute headway to 5 minute headway, not a full 50% reduction.

Purely anecdotally, I have never had to wait multiple busses at UBC to get on a 99 (Though my university years are behind me ). That's just standard operating procedure at Commercial-Broadway.

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Regardless of everything, I really hope they just build the goddamn thing out to UBC already in the next extension. I'm just playing devil's advocate for what they theoretically could viably do.

EDIT: On second thought, the Broadway extension is probably going to cannibalize a decent amount of the existing E-W bus traffic and incentivize UBC students to live in East Van/Burnaby. I could see the Arbutus - UBC congestion becoming very close to the Commercial-Broadway-Arbutus congestion in the very near term.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Oh I trust the numbers - it's the "just terminate everything at Jericho and Alma and things will be fine" idea that I've got problems with. At least Arbutus was more or less always intended to be a layover.

3 minutes down to 5 is 20 buses/hr down to 12, or 60% capacity (not much better than 50%) and still 2.5x more buses than the Alma "loop" currently gets. I'll concede that immediately shooting back up to 100% isn't a guarantee, but back to 60% definitely is.

Definitely YMMV then - waiting multiple buses at the UBC loop was literally most of high school in 2011-12 for me.

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Yeah, it's an option, but so's single-tracking to UBC. I'd argue that getting Phase 2's funding won't be a problem (at least with the Libs in charge); the hard part of getting the subway was fighting the NIMBYs, the Condon-ites (although they're basically the same thing) and Christy Clark all at the same time, and that's mostly over.

[jollyburger]

The ODP was supposed to be finished at the end of 2024 so I expect we'll get something on this soon.

Mid-November MST has a phased plan to buy out Canada Lands Company from of their joint development projects.

"The parties have entered into an agreement where Canada Lands Company will sell its interest in the Heather Lands to the MST Nations upon enactment of rezoning for each of two portions of the site," the representative told STOREYS. "It is anticipated that the first enactment will take place in late 2024, triggering the subdivision and sale of the southern portion of the site."

Asked about the buy-out plan for the Jericho Lands, the MST-CLC representative said "That is a ways away" and that "The current focus of the MST Partnership and Canada Lands Company is working on an Official Development Plan, which would get the project closer to being able to start construction."

https://storeys.com/mst-clc-jericho-...nds-vancouver/

[jollyburger]

Jericho Lands Draft ODP

https://syc.vancouver.ca/projects/je...fo-session.pdf

Overview slides

https://syc.vancouver.ca/projects/je...fo-session.pdf

Until funding is secured for the project, the Province is not able to provide an anticipated
completion date. Once funding is confirmed the project would likely take 7-9 years to procure a
contractor, design and construct the line.

[WarrenC12]

From the same page:

What is the status of the technical work for the UBCx business case?

The key project partners, consisting of the Province and federal, regional, and local governments, First Nations, UBC and TransLink are advancing the planning work for the UBCx business case and funding strategy.

Isn't this the same business case due in "Fall 2024". Where TF is it? Sounds like CoV staff didn't even get a briefing or draft version.

[jollyburger]

The Phasing

Phasing strategy objectives
3.1 The principal objectives underpinning the phasing strategy are to:
(a) coordinate with the proposed UBCx SkyTrain construction timing, alignment, station box,
and laydown yard requirements;
(b) integrate the proposed UBCx Jericho Station with adjacent development (building designs
to be completed with the station design at the time of the applicable rezoning);
(c) provide amenities, retail, service and commercial uses with each phase to support a
walkable, complete community as it grows;
(d) integrate housing for a range of household types, tenures and levels of affordability and
attainability across the site;
(e) work with the land and water, such as the Ridge and above and below grade water channels;
(f) ensure efficient vehicular access, primarily through the loop roads;
(g) ensure the site is serviced and meets the City’s requirements, targets, and/or criteria at each
phase of development; and
(h) manage the displacement of existing residents through phasing.

Development phasing
3.2 The anticipated sequence of each rezoning phase of development is to generally follow:
Watchmens’ Hill Phase; Cedar Heart Plaza, Energy Oval, and Cedar Walk Phase; Canoe Landing
Phase; and Canopy Oval Phase, for the sub-areas as shown on Figure 7. The anticipated sequence
is to be subject to review from time to time, always in light of the objectives set out in section
3.1, but taking into account factors such as the considerable length of the development process
and market conditions prevailing at the time of the review, and, as a result of any such review,
the sequence of phasing may change.
If the implementation of UBCx (including the delivery of the proposed Jericho Station) is later
than the completion of development in Phase 1 or a decision is made not to build UBCx, and/or
if the alignment and Jericho Station location change significantly from the current assumption,
the Jericho Lands site plan shown on Figure 2, the Jericho Lands Policy Statement, this ODP Bylaw, and the approach to phasing and timing of delivery of the subsequent phases will be
reviewed. Adjustments will be made if necessary to ensure that future phases of development do
not exceed the capacity of the site and surrounding movement network to address mobility needs
in line with the City’s sustainable mobility policies.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Wonder if TransLink'll eventually reroute the 9 to Jericho via 8th? Skips the logjam at 10th/Alma, and serves a lot more potential riders.

[officedweller]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Wonder if TransLink'll eventually reroute the 9 to Jericho via 8th? Skips the logjam at 10th/Alma, and serves a lot more potential riders.

No, it would have to stay on 10th as a local service to catch the area missed by the Jericho Skytrain station.

[madog222]

Plus Jericho is already served by buses along 4th.

[jollyburger]

They might build a bus exchange next to the Skytrain Station which probably makes sense for the 4th Ave bus to come into the development.

They also have a potential bus route that goes in and out the south section of the site near 8th Avenue. Again for Skytrain connectivity it's possible the bus along 10th could cut down to the station and then get back on somewhere.

[jollyburger]

MST said this about the development plan going to council

We anticipate that Vancouver City Council will consider the Official Development Plan for approval at a public hearing in April 2025.

https://www.musqueam.bc.ca/jericho-h...-january-2025/

[jollyburger]

Oh no Jericho Lands is going to be 66 highrises.

Developers of the one-kilometre-long Jericho Lands, above the beaches of Spanish Banks, want to house up to 28,000 people in 66 highrises, many in the 40- to 50-storey range.

(Anything over 5 storeys is a high rise?)

Oh no Jericho Lands is going to be more dense than all the mega mansions and SFHs in Point Grey.

One of many statistics that make the Jericho Lands proposal stand out, says architect Brian Palmquist, is that it will be 20 times more dense than the surrounding neighbourhood of Point Grey, which is predominantly single-family houses, some with rental suites.

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/col...architect-says

Meanwhile the Jericho Coalition NIMBY group photo.



https://x.com/vote4team/status/18989...153074/photo/1

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/col...architect-says

Some one at the meeting was complaining about rebar for towers all coming from the US. If you support high rises you are a Trump anti-Canadian fascist...

[GenWhy?]

"Today's @JerichoCoalitio meeting had a big turnout to discuss the canyon of condo towers slated for their neighbourhood. This may not be seen by the average voter but there's a huge undercurrent of residents who are pissed off and scared about these changes."

They're just so excited all the time.

Also I thought this was leasehold and rentals and social housing only here?

[jollyburger]

a minimum of 30% of the total residential floor area must be used for affordable housing,
as follows:

(i) a minimum of 20% of the total residential floor area must be used for social housing,
(ii) a minimum of 10% of the total residential floor area must be used for secured market rental housing and below-market rental housing, of which a minimum of 25% must be used for below-market rental housing,
(iii) affordable housing should be included in each sub-area and delivered as part of each rezoning,
(iv) given the need for senior government and partner funding to achieve the affordable housing targets on the site as defined in 2.5.1(b), for each rezoning, secured market rental housing and/or below-market rental housing may be considered by the City as an alternative to delivering social housing if sufficient senior government and partner funding is not available,
(v) for each rezoning, attainable homeownership may be considered by the City as an alternative to any one or more of the following: social housing, secured market rental housing, and below-market rental housing, and
(vi) conditions securing attainable homeownership units will be determined at the time of rezoning;
(c) target 50% of the social housing units (with a minimum of 35%) to be 2 or more bedroom dwelling units, suitable for families with children; and
(d) a minimum of 35% of all strata leasehold, secured market rental and below-market rental housing must be 2 or more bedroom dwelling units of which a minimum of 10% must be 3 bedroom dwelling units, suitable for families with children, except that through rezonings, the 10% 3 bedroom dwelling unit requirement for secured market and below market rental housing may be adjusted if it can be demonstrated that it jeopardizes the
financial viability of a rental housing development.

https://syc.vancouver.ca/projects/je...fo-session.pdf

[Migrant_Coconut]

I don't envy whichever retirement home takes them 5-10 years from now.

[logan5]

Somebody pass the Depends! Is there anyone under the age of 70 in that crowd? Do they not realize there is going to be a Skytrain station there, and the area well outside the Jericho Lands will be eligible for high-rise and low-rise. The Jericho Lands are the least of their problems.

[Zepfancouver]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

I don't envy whichever retirement home takes them 5-10 years from now.

And half of those in that group photo will be dead at or near the projects completion date, you can't take it with you, so why fight it.

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by jollyburger

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/col...architect-says

The part that really lost me was "is dependent on billions of taxpayer dollars being spent on what it calls an “unnecessary” SkyTrain extension to the University of B.C." We're really going to trot that out again? I'd ask if they've ever ridden the 99 but I already know the answer.

The reason the Canada Line wasn't built first was because of that kind of comment - people along the route had a hairy conniption over it, so the Expo Line got built instead. It took roughly 25 more years for the Canada Line to finally open.

Then for them to complain about a Jericho station, while there not being one "near Point Grey retail village, which is struggling" is pretty hypocritical. Oh maybe one of the reasons the retail is struggling is because the area "is predominantly single-family houses, some with rental suites." Building anything else is going to increase the density of the area and help out struggling local retail.

[jollyburger]

Michael Geller, who four decades ago developed an 11-storey highrise on a Safeway site near the corner of Alma and Fourth, in general believes it’s an excellent idea to redevelop urban supermarkets and their parking lots for residential uses.

“The concern I have, however, is there seems to be a growing sentiment in the city that as long you’re building rental housing, you can build as much as you want,” said Geller. “And the overall quality of the design is less important than it was just a few years ago.”

https://vancouversun.com/business/va...lopers-density

He develops this junk and is complaining about design standards.



https://www.bccondosandhomes.com/bui...reet#gallery-1