New BC Political Discussion - POST BC Election 2017

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

Natural gas is less capital intensive and easier to scale to demand, and it is expected that natural gas production will continue to outstrip demand in North America for the foreseeable future.

Furthermore, natural gas usage for power production in Canada is set to increase, at the expense of nuclear, coal and oil, while wind and solar barely make a blip in total generating capacity.

In North America? We are talking about international demand once LNG is operating.

Natural gas inventory is dropping, and it's clear geography plays a huge role in pricing right now, and we get a discount. As soon as the pipe is open to Asia, we'll be competing with them.

https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd...gmrkt-eng.html

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

In North America? We are talking about international demand once LNG is operating.

Natural gas inventory is dropping, and it's clear geography plays a huge role in pricing right now, and we get a discount. As soon as the pipe is open to Asia, we'll be competing with them.

https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd...gmrkt-eng.html

No, for the US, natural gas inventory is up, year over year, and is within the 5 year average per the US EIA:

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

For the week ending May 31, 2019, working gas in storage was 1,986 Bcf as of Friday, May 31, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 119 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 182 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 240 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,226 Bcf. At 1,986 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

No, for the US, natural gas inventory is up, year over year, and is within the 5 year average per the US EIA:

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

For the week ending May 31, 2019, working gas in storage was 1,986 Bcf as of Friday, May 31, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 119 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 182 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 240 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,226 Bcf. At 1,986 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

So what's the price outlook for the next 5-10 years? Everything I've seen is less supply coming online.

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

So what's the price outlook for the next 5-10 years? Everything I've seen is less supply coming online.

See the EIA's energy outlook for 2019:

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/aeo2019.pdf

Production is expected to continue to exceed demand from 2018 to 2020, with growth in production expected to grow by 7% annually, compared to demand, which had only grown by 5% between 2005 and 2015. However, growth demand for natural gas is expected to flatten even further, going down to 1% annually after 2020.

The EIA expects that natural gas prices will remain at about the $5 per million BTU in 2018 dollars through to 2050 (page 74) in their reference scenario.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

See the EIA's energy outlook for 2019:

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/aeo2019.pdf

Production is expected to continue to exceed demand from 2018 to 2020, with growth in production expected to grow by 7% annually, compared to demand, which had only grown by 5% between 2005 and 2015. However, growth demand for natural gas is expected to flatten even further, going down to 1% annually after 2020.

The EIA expects that natural gas prices will remain at about the $5 per million BTU in 2018 dollars through to 2050 (page 74) in their reference scenario.

Ok. EIA has been notoriously bullish on fossil fuels for a long time and their predictions need to be taken with a grain of salt.

With respect to all energy sources:
Page 28: They expect a rise in petroleum over time despite massive recent volatility. Ditto ever increasing NG consumption.

For coal, they somehow turn the massive downturn in coal recently into a a complete level consumption to 2050.

Renewables they anticipate to grow at a slower pace than they have in recent years.

This information isn't something I'd be basing medium-long term investment decisions on.

[retro_orange]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Ok. EIA has been notoriously bullish on fossil fuels for a long time and their predictions need to be taken with a grain of salt.

With respect to all energy sources:
Page 28: They expect a rise in petroleum over time despite massive recent volatility. Ditto ever increasing NG consumption.

For coal, they somehow turn the massive downturn in coal recently into a a complete level consumption to 2050.

Renewables they anticipate to grow at a slower pace than they have in recent years.

This information isn't something I'd be basing medium-long term investment decisions on.

Exactly. It's akin to going to a Baskin Robbins or Marble Slab Creamery to ask what the future outlook for ice cream consumption is.

[WestCoastEcho]

Woodfibre LNG has permits to start construction:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...rmit-1.5199018

A liquefied natural gas project near Squamish, B.C., is one step closer to becoming a reality.

The B.C. Oil and Gas Commission approved a facilities permit allowing Woodfibre LNG to build and operate a facility, as long as the Vancouver-based company complies with certain conditions.

"It's an important milestone for our project because this will now allow us to move to construction, which we plan to do later this year," said David Keane, president of Woodfibre LNG.

Woodfibre LNG is a $1.6 billion project planned for the site of the old pulp mill about seven kilometres southwest of Squamish, which will process and liquefy natural gas shipped by pipeline from northern B.C. for export to Asian markets.

The company had applied for the permit a few months ago in April, and it was approved July 2.

[WestCoastEcho]

This could change the balance of power in the legislature; Jinny Sims has resigned as cabinet minister amid the appointment of a special prosecutor as a result of an RCMP investigation:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...utor-1.5310247

MLA Jinny Sims has resigned from cabinet following the appointment of a special prosecutor, B.C.'s premier announced Friday.

Sims is the subject of an RCMP investigation and has left her post as the minister of citizens' services, according to a statement from Premier John Horgan.

"I accepted her resignation as appropriate under the circumstances. We take any such investigation very seriously," Horgan said.

"While we await the conclusion of the matter, I have asked Minister Selina Robinson to temporarily assume responsibility as minister of citizens' services."

In a written statement, Sims said she does not have any details against the allegations against her, "but there was no credibility to previous public allegations. I am confident that my name will be cleared but do not want to distract from the important work of government in the meantime."

Sims was first elected as MLA for Surrey-Panorama in the 2017 provincial election.

Per the Vancouver Sun, there was an earlier allegation that Jinny Sims used her ministerial credentials to write visa reference letters for 10 Pakistani citizens, three of whom ended up on a U.S. security watch list:
https://vancouversun.com/news/politi...ormer-employee

Jinny has denied this allegation. Wonder if her resignation and the appointment of a special prosecutor is related to this allegation?

[logicbomb]

Jinny Sims is shaddy as hell. I suspect what will come out will force her to resign and we will have a byelection in Panaroma. Liberals should be able to pick that seat up.

On that note. The NDP are going to get destroyed next election:
-Complete loss of the lumber industry
-Taxes
-Cancellation of the GMB
-Taxes
-Neglecting rural BC
-Ridiculous hurdles for ride-hailing
-Taxes
-ICBC
-Did I say taxes?

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

On that note. The NDP are going to get destroyed next election:

Some pretty wishful thinking here. Anything's possible but it's doubtful voters have that short a memory with regard to the mess the Libs created while in power.

[Changing City]

The NDP are going to get destroyed next election:

-Taxes


I'm guessing things are maybe different for you high-flying big earners, but my modest income (mostly pension) was up in 2018 from 2017, and my BC Tax went down.

[WarrenC12]

NDP have been correcting Liberal mistakes and doing a good job in general. This is reflected in their approval ratings.

It helps that Wilkinson is a terrible leader too.

[Henbo]

Originally Posted by Changing City

The NDP are going to get destroyed next election:

-Taxes


I'm guessing things are maybe different for you high-flying big earners, but my modest income (mostly pension) was up in 2018 from 2017, and my BC Tax went down.

Yea, haven't the tax changes been pretty reasonable?

- Increase to the personal income tax rate applicable to individuals earning more than $150,000 from 14.7% to 16.8%

- Increase to the general corporate income tax rate from 11% to 12%

- Increase to the carbon tax rate to $50 per tonne from $30 per tonne (by 2022)

- Increase to property transfer tax rate to 5% from 3% on the value of residential properties above $3 million

- Increase to additional property transfer tax rate (foreign buyers tax) from 15% to 20% and expanded to more areas of the province

- Increase to school tax on residential property in excess of $3 million

- A new “speculation tax,” of $5 per $1,000 of the value of the property in 2018 (rising to $20 per $1,000 in 2019). This tax is intended to target property owners who do not pay income tax in BC, and owners who leave their properties vacant

- Increase to luxury auto surtax rates on passenger vehicles over $125,000

- New Employer Health Tax (fully implemented) minus revenue from remaining MSP premiums

Source: Fraser Institute
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/site...c-families.pdf

[misher]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

Some pretty wishful thinking here. Anything's possible but it's doubtful voters have that short a memory with regard to the mess the Libs created while in power.

A lot of people in this forum are renters so it doesn’t really represent BC as a whole which is a majority homeowners. When Vancouver residents get their 10%+ tax bill increase they won’t just blame the city there is going to be general resentment for the province. Also remember that voter turnout is a huge issue, people may want to vote NDP but all the people the NDP pissed off will definitely vote Liberal. I know a lot of condo owners who voted NDP were then very pissed because they tried to sell and couldn’t because the market died.

I know a lot of people dump on the Liberals but they were in power for a long time so everyone’s going to find something to dislike. But overall employment was high and things generally ran smoothly with people left alone and people will remember that. Some complain about home prices but ownership has gone up not down under the Liberals so it’s a small vocal minority rather than a majority. Honestly the next BC election will reflect the federal, people don’t like Scheer they just dislike Trudeau. People don’t like Wilkinson but there pissed at Horgan.

[WarrenC12]

You're using a lot of anecdotes. Here's the public sentiment:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5155606

Numbers published by Research Co. found 39 per cent of decided voters would vote for the NDP if an election was held tomorrow, compared to 30 per cent for the B.C. Liberals, 21 per cent for the B.C. Green Party and nine per cent for the B.C. Conservatives.

Greens have huge support. They aren't far away from official opposition with those numbers.

[WestCoastEcho]

Well, Andrew Weaver is hosting a presser at the Legislature on Monday and apparently, it's a big announcement. Wonder what is it all about...

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

Well, Andrew Weaver is hosting a presser at the Legislature on Monday and apparently, it's a big announcement. Wonder what is it all about...

I couldn't find a lot. Is this big news?

Mr. Weaver to introduce a Bill intituled Ukrainian Famine and Genocide (Holodomor) Memorial Day Act, 2019.

Even this doesn't seem all that exciting.

The legislature resumes sitting Oct. 7 for a two-month fall session. Horgan has indicated his government will table legislation to make B.C. the first jurisdiction in Canada to adopt the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, which is likely to spark debate over the effect on forestry, mining and other land use issues.

Visiting Yukon to start this week, Horgan said his government will also present legislation to keep daylight saving time year-round in B.C. He repeated his caution that despite the popularity of the move, it is important to have West Coast time zones remain synchronized due to airline and other trade connections with Yukon and U.S. states.

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by Sheba

I couldn't find a lot. Is this big news?


Even this doesn't seem all that exciting.

The only thing so far is that Weaver has only issued a media advisory for that Monday, indicating a "significant announcement", whatever that means. And it is to be held in the Hall of Honour, which is the largest and most public space at the Legislature, per what I've read.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

Well, Andrew Weaver is hosting a presser at the Legislature on Monday and apparently, it's a big announcement. Wonder what is it all about...

Maybe he's going to explain how Elizabeth May's $60 billion in new spending and expansion of the federal government by 20% is going to affect British Columbians.

[bluefox]

He might be stepping aside -- remember he just had a bad bout of labyrinthitis a couple of weeks ago that knocked him off his feet. He's not exactly a young guy.