Oakridge Park | 13 Towers | 154m | 52fl | 5M sqft | U/C

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by misher

Well that and you looking at the price when its built in 4+ years not the price its currently at. The market is predicted to go down for the next 2ish years and then rise sharply barring a major economic event.

Must of done a hell of a job of marketing to sell out one tower already by now. Possibly a ton of retirees?

Oh God no. That particular market is slow. We tried getting some for a West Side project but they just don't want to sell their $$ homes at the moment. These are investment units. Long term forecasts / investments into the area. They did a hell of a job getting to this point. Hell of a job. What the market does in the next 2-4 years doesn't quite affect this, as far as I've seen / heard.

[nds88]

No one can predict the market. Currently, the market is slowing down, but for how long and how much of a slow down is impossible to predict. Just like when the foreign tax was suddenly enacted in Summer 2016, prices still jumped 40-50% over the next 2 years.

With Trump now putting the Federal Reserve in his crosshairs, its already had an effect on their tone. Markets are now pricing in one rate increase in 2019, compared to 3 or 4 that was being expected just a month ago. Some indicators are showing signs of a rate cut too. Canada tends to follow the US with rate changes. Also, given the price of oil has been hammered again, Canada is not in a great position to mimic the rapid rate increase. In Jan 2015 Canada made a surprise rate cut (at a time when it was expecting rates to stay flat or increase) due to oil plunging below 50USD a barrel (which it is now). This could happen again. Interest rates play an important factor on prices.

Canadian buyers are getting hammered at both ends, with the stress test and the rate hikes. China is getting hammered with the trade battle. 2019 will be very interesting. I think there is a possibility of a rate cut, Trump inks a deal with China, Trudeau gets booted out and the Conservatives come in. These are all factors that could turn the slow down around.

Back on topic, personally I didn't feel comfortable in the sales center. Although the staff were nice, the branding and styling makes it feel likes its trying too hard to create a boujee, snooty atmosphere. Calling it a sales atelier instead of a sales center. A sanctuary instead of a balcony. Very dark inside too. The bathroom, IIRC, consisted of a dark grey/black stone that comprised the bathtub, sink and floor to ceiling tiles. Gave me the vibe this is where Cruella de Vil would live.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by nds88

No one can predict the market. Currently, the market is slowing down, but for how long and how much of a slow down is impossible to predict. Just like when the foreign tax was suddenly enacted in Summer 2016, prices still jumped 40-50% over the next 2 years.

With Trump now putting the Federal Reserve in his crosshairs, its already had an effect on their tone. Markets are now pricing in one rate increase in 2019, compared to 3 or 4 that was being expected just a month ago. Some indicators are showing signs of a rate cut too. Canada tends to follow the US with rate changes. Also, given the price of oil has been hammered again, Canada is not in a great position to mimic the rapid rate increase. In Jan 2015 Canada made a surprise rate cut (at a time when it was expecting rates to stay flat or increase) due to oil plunging below 50USD a barrel (which it is now). This could happen again. Interest rates play an important factor on prices.


Canadian buyers are getting hammered at both ends, with the stress test and the rate hikes. China is getting hammered with the trade battle. 2019 will be very interesting. I think there is a possibility of a rate cut, Trump inks a deal with China, Trudeau gets booted out and the Conservatives come in. These are all factors that could turn the slow down around.

Back on topic, personally I didn't feel comfortable in the sales center. Although the staff were nice, the branding and styling makes it feel likes its trying too hard to create a boujee, snooty atmosphere. Calling it a sales atelier instead of a sales center. A sanctuary instead of a balcony. Very dark inside too. The bathroom, IIRC, consisted of a dark grey/black stone that comprised the bathtub, sink and floor to ceiling tiles. Gave me the vibe this is where Cruella de Vil would live.

And also to add - locally, the return of the provincial Liberals, who I imagine would largely roll back some of the affordable housing initiatives the NDP have put in place.

2019 is a write off. 2020 we bottom out. 2021 new cycle starts. If I were a gambling man...

All that being said - selling out a tower at these prices, in this political and economical climate is one hell of a vote of confidence, I mean unreal.

[officedweller]

Well, it is one heck of a location (and "Oakridge" has more reputation than an off-the-shelf condo name) and there as no other towers competing with them - just low and midrises.
I suppose Dogwood-Pearson has towers - but lacks the "Oakridge" name.

[svlt]

I learned never to underestimate the draw of mall connectivity to wealthy seniors, they just love this sort of thing and couldn't care less about medium term market fluctuations. If tower one did indeed sell out, I'd suspect there to be a sizable number of buyers who aren't local, as it is Westbank after all.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by svlt

I learned never to underestimate the draw of mall connectivity to wealthy seniors, they just love this sort of thing and couldn't care less about medium term market fluctuations. If tower one did indeed sell out, I'd suspect there to be a sizable number of buyers who aren't local, as it is Westbank after all.

They're as local as me and most Vancouverites, but you're correct.

[nds88]

Originally Posted by rofina

And also to add - locally, the return of the provincial Liberals, who I imagine would largely roll back some of the affordable housing initiatives the NDP have put in place.

2019 is a write off. 2020 we bottom out. 2021 new cycle starts. If I were a gambling man...

All that being said - selling out a tower at these prices, in this political and economical climate is one hell of a vote of confidence, I mean unreal.

Correct, except that the Provincial elections are still at least a couple years away I believe. The municipal elections are 4? years away too. If Wai Young stepped aside, I believe her voter base would have pushed NPA into power. Maxime Bernier might end up splitting the Federal Conservative vote though.

I'm holding onto my units as I've got a nice buffer zone. Other large holders in my family and family friends are all holding too. They all survived 15% interest rates and the Credit Crunch....came out way ahead. The transaction fees to sell and buy eat up significant portions; from PTT, Realtor Fees and taxes on profits. So it doesn't really make much difference to sell, wait and pray that the market drops 20%, then re-enter. I already gotta pay 3% realtor fee to get out, 3% realtor fee to get in (its priced into the purchase price), PTT, then cap gain taxes on profits. So its just too much gamble that if the market doesn't drop enough, that getting out then back in will cost more. Needs to be like 25% drop for that to happen, just to make it worth the risk. I don't think it will drop this much. Better to just have a LOC set up against the property while prices are high and if prices drop, buy a new place.

I do find Oakridge to be overpriced, relative to the rest of the City. Its like Coal Harbour pricing (or more), minus being downtown and without the water front. But seniors (if that is a huge client base) probably prefer not to be down town and instead stay in the area they are familiar with, but have skytrain and mall access just an elevator ride down.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

They're as local as me and most Vancouverites, but you're correct.

What does that mean?

I’ve said it before, a lot of people who should know better are thinking the market is just going to snap back to where it was two years ago, when in reality it is much more akin to Japan at the end of the Eighties. The party is over. If Westbank presold a lot of this to “insiders” who expect to make 2016 style profits on assignments they’re going to get burned.

[SpongeG]

surprised its selling so well so fast, perhaps the party trails on

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by rofina

And also to add - locally, the return of the provincial Liberals, who I imagine would largely roll back some of the affordable housing initiatives the NDP have put in place.

2019 is a write off. 2020 we bottom out. 2021 new cycle starts. If I were a gambling man...

All that being said - selling out a tower at these prices, in this political and economical climate is one hell of a vote of confidence, I mean unreal.

Why would they, honestly? The vacancy tax provides extra income, and removing most of the initiatives for cheaper housing when prices are where they are now is a electoral death sentence.

Originally Posted by whatnext

What does that mean?

I’ve said it before, a lot of people who should know better are thinking the market is just going to snap back to where it was two years ago, when in reality it is much more akin to Japan at the end of the Eighties. The party is over. If Westbank presold a lot of this to “insiders” who expect to make 2016 style profits on assignments they’re going to get burned.

Japan is not comparable to North America; the biggest reason there's never been any recovery is due to the high retiree demographic and declining population.

That's going to happen to an extent in most developed (and a lot of developing nations), but the difference is that in North America, birth and Immigration rates are higher, to the point where the demographic pyramid to age 70 is a cylinder, not an inverted Pyramid.

Eventual recovery of RE prices and the economy in general to a relatively stable inflationary/flat (rather than deflationary, like in Japan) position is far easier to achieve under those conditions.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by whatnext

What does that mean?

I’ve said it before, a lot of people who should know better are thinking the market is just going to snap back to where it was two years ago, when in reality it is much more akin to Japan at the end of the Eighties. The party is over. If Westbank presold a lot of this to “insiders” who expect to make 2016 style profits on assignments they’re going to get burned.

As I've been aware of the pre-sales they are being bought to be held. Investments and not what many call "flips" or "make a profit". We're doing the same thing on our condo projects. Pre-selling to those that hold them as investment properties and either have family live in them or rent them out.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by fredinno

Why would they, honestly? The vacancy tax provides extra income, and removing most of the initiatives for cheaper housing when prices are where they are now is a electoral death sentence.



Japan is not comparable to North America; the biggest reason there's never been any recovery is due to the high retiree demographic and declining population.

That's going to happen to an extent in most developed (and a lot of developing nations), but the difference is that in North America, birth and Immigration rates are higher, to the point where the demographic pyramid to age 70 is a cylinder, not an inverted Pyramid.

Eventual recovery of RE prices and the economy in general to a relatively stable inflationary/flat (rather than deflationary, like in Japan) position is far easier to achieve under those conditions.

I don't think its an electoral death sentence at all. The voting owner class cant wait to get Liberals back in power - look at the rally's and opposition to Eby's school tax.

There maybe some reluctance to lose the money from the new taxes but ultimately it was the Liberals who built BC into a RE Economy over nearly 2 decades. I don't see why they would now have a change of heart in regards to that.

[phesto]

Anyway, back on topic, I've heard from a reliable source that they are somewhere between 30-50% sold and it's mostly the smallest units that have been snapped up. The largest penthouse unit has also sold.

[vanman]

I visited the presentation centre earlier this week. The cheapest units for sale currently are the 600 sqft 1 bed units and they go for 1.1-1.4 million.... woow.

[bb1510]

Actually all the PH's have been sold in both towers to local purchasers with the exception on one unit which has been sold in mainland china

They're also pushing some of the higher 04+05 units as combo units in tower 4 as they're seen many purchasers do so and offering four units as such now (28, 33, 38, 41)

[fredinno]

Such faith.

[e-clam9]

My dream finally comes truth !! Get a new car when buying a pre-sale !!


The first opportunity to purchase a Palazzo in Oakridge x Lissoni.

Purchase with only an 8% initial deposit and 8% second deposit after one year (16% total deposit) and an opportunity to select one of the following gifts with your home:

Air Canada Business Class Flight Passes
Furniture Package from B&B Italia
Oakridge Shopping Spree
Hublot Watch
Vehicle from OpenRoad Auto Group: Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Porsche, Rolls-Royce, Audi
Westbank Experience Trip to Tokyo, Toronto, New York, London, Paris or Italy


Luna new year party on Jan 29 at 7:30pm. Go buy a new condo and get a new car or one of the above !! :-)

[misher]

Originally Posted by e-clam9

My dream finally comes truth !! Get a new car when buying a pre-sale !!


The first opportunity to purchase a Palazzo in Oakridge x Lissoni.

Purchase with only an 8% initial deposit and 8% second deposit after one year (16% total deposit) and an opportunity to select one of the following gifts with your home:

Air Canada Business Class Flight Passes
Furniture Package from B&B Italia
Oakridge Shopping Spree
Hublot Watch
Vehicle from OpenRoad Auto Group: Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Porsche, Rolls-Royce, Audi
Westbank Experience Trip to Tokyo, Toronto, New York, London, Paris or Italy

I wonder if the penthouses get the Rolls Royce.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by e-clam9

My dream finally comes truth !! Get a new car when buying a pre-sale !!


The first opportunity to purchase a Palazzo in Oakridge x Lissoni.

Purchase with only an 8% initial deposit and 8% second deposit after one year (16% total deposit) and an opportunity to select one of the following gifts with your home:

Air Canada Business Class Flight Passes
Furniture Package from B&B Italia
Oakridge Shopping Spree
Hublot Watch
Vehicle from OpenRoad Auto Group: Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Porsche, Rolls-Royce, Audi
Westbank Experience Trip to Tokyo, Toronto, New York, London, Paris or Italy


Luna new year party on Jan 29 at 7:30pm. Go buy a new condo and get a new car or one of the above !! :-)

Why buy a mere condo when you can buy a palazzo!

[e-clam9]

My next dream is to buy one and get one free. It would be nice to get a free studio when buying another 1 or 2 or 3 bedroom !! Keep dreaming... My agent friend told me the condo price is starting to crack now...

Developers will try to keep price high and stable but give out more and more incentive. Existing condo asking price will trend down slowly, I believe.