YVR & Sea Island Developments Discussion II

[nname]

Originally Posted by owenf

They’ve always been 3x weekly high season (Dec/Jan and Jul/Aug) and 2x weekly the rest of the year. So frequency is the same. And they’ve also been intermittently subbing A330 in place of the A350 they usually send so again not a major decrease overall.

I think he meant 3 weeks instead of 2 months of 3x weekly.

But looks like A330 is here to stay, since A330 replaces A350 for all flights starting from mid-May. So the A350 may be required for something else.

Also there is an op day change after the peak season in August.

The schedule change may not be finished though. When they was changing the schedule a couple of weeks ago, there was only 1 week of 3x weekly flight on Dec 18. Two more flights were added a week after.

Originally Posted by VancityAvgeek33

Do you happen to know why this route is doing so badly? Will it do better from Toronto? And also will CA reduce to 3 weekly flights and AC keep 4?

Words is that the planned frequency for YYZ is 3x weekly, and CA only allotted to 4x weekly flights in total (3x with Russia overfly right and 1x doesn't). So either YVR is reduce to 1x weekly, or they doing PEK-YVR-YYZ for some flight, or something else.

But then CA had since deleted that tweet soon after it was posted. Maybe plan changed? Or just announced too early?

[Johnny Aussie]

I was just looking at last summer’s China schedule and despite PEK being “heavily reduced” (based on planned or possible changes) that route is still an increase over last summer (comparing like for like periods - hard to compare seasonal changes) Obviously planned route developments change and we all know how stretched AC’s widebody fleet is and still very few allowable frequencies. To grow one route can only come at the expense of another. I think the YYC widebody reductions have an impact still - pull a couple of daily returns and gain maybe 4-5 weekly longhaul flights.

Last summer YVR-PEK nonstop was served zero weekly. There was a once weekly flight via Shenyang on CA. This summer YVR-PEK will be at least 5 weekly.

Overall Canada - China still very limited

Also looks like some of the Fiji flights will be on 333s as well. I would suggest their schedule is not finalised as well

[VancityAvgeek33]

Originally Posted by nname

I think he meant 3 weeks instead of 2 months of 3x weekly.

But looks like A330 is here to stay, since A330 replaces A350 for all flights starting from mid-May. So the A350 may be required for something else.

Also there is an op day change after the peak season in August.

The schedule change may not be finished though. When they was changing the schedule a couple of weeks ago, there was only 1 week of 3x weekly flight on Dec 18. Two more flights were added a week after.




Words is that the planned frequency for YYZ is 3x weekly, and CA only allotted to 4x weekly flights in total (3x with Russia overfly right and 1x doesn't). So either YVR is reduce to 1x weekly, or they doing PEK-YVR-YYZ for some flight, or something else.

But then CA had since deleted that tweet soon after it was posted. Maybe plan changed? Or just announced too early?

Would YYZ even perform better? Like I thought Vancouver was a focus for china over Toronto but then again Toronto is becoming more global.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by VancityAvgeek33;10379951 Turkish airlines want to increase Vancouver to five weekly for the summer[B

but was denied by Canada [/B]so hopefully they can strike a deeper deal with Air Canada and bring that dream to reality.

Can someone tell me how Canada does this 'limiting and "wing-clipping?" Is the decsision made by Transport Canada, and if so, by which department. What is wrong with giving TK 5x weekly? :

[nname]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Can someone tell me how Canada does this 'limiting and "wing-clipping?" Is the decsision made by Transport Canada, and if so, by which department. What is wrong with giving TK 5x weekly? :

TK requested 1x weekly extra-bilateral frequency last year and was granted. So this year they try to request 5x weekly.

I call this an abuse of the system. Even though I do wish for extra YVR-IST frequency, but denying would be the right decision here.

What's the point of bilateral if you can just ask TC for any frequency you want?


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And looks like Canada-US capacity reduction had started affect YVR routes

UA had change one of the YVR-SFO frequency from mainline to express. At least there's no frequency loss, for now
https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/250227-uans25sfoyvr

[Johnny Aussie]

^ but

“Despite this adjustment, overall service during this period remains an increase compared to the same period in 2024, when it operated 4 daily flights with weekly capacity of 4379 seats on one-way basis.”

So this year 6 daily with 6279 weekly seats

To me if it dropped below 2024 capacity that would be more of an issue. This is just a slight reduction based on one flight’s aircraft switch. UA does it all the time

Also noting UA just upgauged both daily LAX flights to 738MAX and two of the four daily DEN flights to 739 and 739MAX in the summer. Unsure why he focussed on the small SFO adjustment

Perhaps the US POS is stronger

Also in AA’s latest update YVR-LAX upgauged to a 738 for June/July

[Johnny Aussie]

YVR finally updated its Traffic Update page for December 2024

2024 ended up with a 5.1% increase for the year. An increase of 1,268,519 from 2023.

December was up 7.6%

All the details here…

https://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents...2---december/december-traffic-update.pdf

[zahav]

Arghhh almost beat 2019, soooo close! And if it weren't for this nightmare situation with the US, we'd probably cruise to a new record. But the non-stop messaging telling people to avoid the US isn't going to help traffic #s. As much as I hate Trump and any kind of tariff, I think there's a massive amount of businesses that will suffer here by telling Canadians to avoid the US and give Americans the impression we don't want them. Doesn't mean we have to cave and not stand up for ourselves, but if an American traveller watched the jingoism here, they may decide to avoid travel here.

[Johnny Aussie]

The main culprit for not achieving a record was Asia Pacific (China still quite suppressed)

In any event January got off to a good start up 3.5% over 2024

Overall busiest Jan ever also busiest for domestic and Europe

[nname]

Originally Posted by zahav

Arghhh almost beat 2019, soooo close! And if it weren't for this nightmare situation with the US, we'd probably cruise to a new record. But the non-stop messaging telling people to avoid the US isn't going to help traffic #s. As much as I hate Trump and any kind of tariff, I think there's a massive amount of businesses that will suffer here by telling Canadians to avoid the US and give Americans the impression we don't want them. Doesn't mean we have to cave and not stand up for ourselves, but if an American traveller watched the jingoism here, they may decide to avoid travel here.

Maybe if people no longer wants to transfer in the US, it lead to higher chance for YVR to gain direct flight to Caribbean, Central America, and South America? Right now a big portion of those trips are connecting through US hubs.

Still waiting to see what WS will do with YVR-VRA and PUJ after full integration with WG. Either they will re-launch them as WS routes, or cancel them altogether.

[VancityAvgeek33]

Air Canada just announced increases to Europe flights from Toronto and Montreal. My question is where are they getting the extra flights from - Vancouver??!

[nname]

Originally Posted by VancityAvgeek33

Air Canada just announced increases to Europe flights from Toronto and Montreal. My question is where are they getting the extra flights from - Vancouver??!

Where is this announcement

There is no change AC long haul schedule compared to 4 weeks ago, besides updated TLV resumption plan, PEK reduction and BNE increase.

The widebody frequency including TLV change compared to last summer are:

YVR +6
YYZ +10
YUL +4
YOW +4

YOW flight is supported by YYZ/YUL at 2x weekly each. So basically YYZ need 2 extra planes, YVR and YUL need 1 each.

AC is getting a new 789 this year and maybe 2x 763... so how do they managed to find FOUR planes, I have no idea....

As for long haul narrowbody, there is no change from last year.

[VancityAvgeek33]

Originally Posted by nname

Where is this announcement

There is no change AC long haul schedule compared to 4 weeks ago, besides updated TLV resumption plan, PEK reduction and BNE increase.

The widebody frequency including TLV change compared to last summer are:

YVR +6
YYZ +10
YUL +4
YOW +4

YOW flight is supported by YYZ/YUL at 2x weekly each. So basically YYZ need 2 extra planes, YVR and YUL need 1 each.

AC is getting a new 789 this year and maybe 2x 763... so how do they managed to find FOUR planes, I have no idea....

As for long haul narrowbody, there is no change from last year.

There increasing Stockholm, Madrid, Manchester and many more from Toronto, and Montreal there increasing Madrid, dublin and more.

[Nick]

Sounds like it's not using widebody aircraft. They don't quite have the legs from YVR

[nname]

Originally Posted by VancityAvgeek33

There increasing Stockholm, Madrid, Manchester and many more from Toronto, and Montreal there increasing Madrid, dublin and more.

All the changes you mentioned are already in schedule for months. AC is moving frequencies from the worse performing routes to the best one each season. It have done that for all 3 hubs.

Overall, the vast majority of the increase is for new and resuming routes. The rest are just resource reallocation.

From my post above, the 10 weekly gain from YYZ includes 4 for resuming TLV, and 3 from launching PRG. The 4 weekly from YUL includes 1 from resuming TLV, 3 for launch OPO and 4 for launching NAP - overall net loss of frequency from existing routes similar to YVR.


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F8 is suspending YVR-PSP starting early April. Looks like this is the only transborder suspension from YVR. On the other hand, YYC and YEG have their F8 transborder schedule wiped out entirely starting early April...

[Johnny Aussie]

^ thank you for your rational and thorough explanations as always.

As for F8 - wouldn’t PSP and PHX just be seasonal suspensions?

They’ve got LAS continuing into June and LAX and SFO one daily each for the entire summer season.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

^ thank you for your rational and thorough explanations as always.

As for F8 - wouldn’t PSP and PHX just be seasonal suspensions?

They’ve got LAS continuing into June and LAX and SFO one daily each for the entire summer season.

PSP originally schedule to end the same time as PHX in late April, operating as YVR-PSP-YVR-PHX-YVR

There is small reduction for PHX in April as well. Other than that, no other transborder changes was made out of YVR routes. Guess the YVR routes are better performing compared to YYC and YEG counterpart.

On the other hand, AC had reduce IAD down to 5x weekly in June and delay the seasonal resumption by about 5 weeks. IAH is reduced to 6x weekly for the month of May-June. This save a fleet requirement by 1 MAX.

From July onward, both IAD and IAH is still scheduled to run weekly, so there's 3 additional weekly requiring an extra plane.

And on the long-haul front, FJ extend the third weekly flight into 2026 all the way to the end of current booking window (end of Feb). Maybe the third weekly flight no longer restricted to seasonal addition from then on?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

From July onward, both IAD and IAH is still scheduled to run weekly, so there's 3 additional weekly requiring an extra plane.

And on the long-haul front, FJ extend the third weekly flight into 2026 all the way to the end of current booking window (end of Feb). Maybe the third weekly flight no longer restricted to seasonal addition from then on?

I know you meant “daily” not “weekly”

I’m still a bit surprised at how large AC’s YVR transborder network has become and how much Westjet has added too

I figured FJ was going to be back to seasonal normal. They were just updating their scheds as expected.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I know you meant “daily” not “weekly”

I’m still a bit surprised at how large AC’s YVR transborder network has become and how much Westjet has added too

I figured FJ was going to be back to seasonal normal. They were just updating their scheds as expected.

Now IAD and IAH reduction had been applied to July and August too. Also, for July and August, one of the weekly flight from MIA is moved to YQB, which is now 3x and 4x weekly respectively.

No change to AUS, BNA, TPA, and RDU so far. Pretty sure those are worse performing than IAD, IAH and MIA... but I guess AC will have to bite the loss to fight off WS, and will not cut before WS cut the flights.

[stiffdeadman]

Delta and United announcing significant domestic and Canadian service cuts around March 22. Both airlines missing earnings projections. YVR might lose some frequencies. All those flights can't be just cruise passengers.