New BC Political Discussion - POST BC Election 2017

[Alex Mackinnon]

Originally Posted by s211

Textbook over-promise, under-deliver.

A fleet doesn't replace itself over night. Heavy duty vehicles generally last just over a decade, and you can't even buy a Tesla semi yet. EV buses are currently available though. It will probably take 15+ years for the fleets to be predominantly electric, and for built out charging networks to support that load.

There isn't any reason that any given truck couldn't be replaced in the next couple years though.

Originally Posted by misher

Tesla comes to mind. In the end the tech is coming but its "someday soon" rather than tomorrow. Until then we got to keep doing things the old fashioned way.

You could buy a Tesla Roadster in 2008. Someday soon was about 12 years ago, bud. I've had my Volt for 5 years already. It's completely electric but it's on par with a 50cc scooter for lifetime fuel consumption...

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Yes and no - as long as we're stuck on lithium-ion batteries, I highly doubt that we're getting long-distance electric anything.

Is 500km on a charge not enough? Is 15 minutes for the next 300-400km not fast enough?

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

Is 500km on a charge not enough? Is 15 minutes for the next 300-400km not fast enough?

For a semi, no it isn't and it won't be able to get that range carrying 30 tons of cargo either, if we're talking lithium ion batteries. We're not close to the energy density required yet, and it won't take 15 minutes to charge either. If it takes 30 minutes to charge a 2 ton Tesla now, it's going to take 20 times that to charge the batteries to give equivalent range to a 40 ton truck.

Don't believe the Musk-aid. The numbers are fantasy.

[misher]

Originally Posted by milomilo

For a semi, no it isn't and it won't be able to get that range carrying 30 tons of cargo either, if we're talking lithium ion batteries. We're not close to the energy density required yet, and it won't take 15 minutes to charge either. If it takes 30 minutes to charge a 2 ton Tesla now, it's going to take 20 times that to charge the batteries to give equivalent range to a 40 ton truck.

Don't believe the Musk-aid. The numbers are fantasy.

Not to mention what happens in winter when its freezing. I know my electric car's range decreases about 30% when I have the heating on high.

Lithium ion batteries are great but they still don't achieve the energy density/lb needed for many future uses. Likely a solid state or graphene is required aluminum-air is also a possibility. Remember also that Lithium batteries are volatile and unreliable in the extreme cold aka most of Canada in winter. Probably don't want a truck with a large explosive battery towing something flammable like a tank of oil since if that car gets into an accident...poof.




Imagine if shit like this happened in a tunnel? or on a bridge?

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by misher

Not to mention what happens in winter when its freezing. I know my electric car's range decreases about 30% when I have the heating on high.

Lithium ion batteries are great but they still don't achieve the energy density/lb needed for many future uses. Likely a solid state or graphene is required. Remember also that Lithium batteries are volatile and unreliable in the extreme cold aka most of Canada in winter.

To be fair, diesel is flammable and doesn't work very well in winter either, but we know how to work around that and deal with it. If you can figure out the energy density, electric vehicles would likely have a much easier time in the cold than diesels.

[Alex Mackinnon]

Originally Posted by milomilo

For a semi, no it isn't and it won't be able to get that range carrying 30 tons of cargo either, if we're talking lithium ion batteries. We're not close to the energy density required yet, and it won't take 15 minutes to charge either. If it takes 30 minutes to charge a 2 ton Tesla now, it's going to take 20 times that to charge the batteries to give equivalent range to a 40 ton truck.

Don't believe the Musk-aid. The numbers are fantasy.

Why wouldn't I believe Musk? They're reportedly looking at a battery around 6-10x larger than is used in the Model S/X, and a charge rate of over a 1 MW.

If the battery is actually 1000 kWh, that would put it at roughly equivalent to 350 L of gas, or a bit less of diesel. My Volt would use about 20 kWh for 100km, or 7L of gas. You can compare efficiencies based on a similar ratio.

Originally Posted by misher

Not to mention what happens in winter when its freezing. I know my electric car's range decreases about 30% when I have the heating on high.

Lithium ion batteries are great but they still don't achieve the energy density/lb needed for many future uses. Likely a solid state or graphene is required aluminum-air is also a possibility. Remember also that Lithium batteries are volatile and unreliable in the extreme cold aka most of Canada in winter. Probably don't want a truck with a large explosive battery towing something flammable like a tank of oil since if that car gets into an accident...poof.

Imagine if shit like this happened in a tunnel? or on a bridge?

Hazardous cargo is banned from tunnels anyways. You won't see a fuel truck or similar going through the GMT or Cassiar Connector unless something wrong has happened.

The range loss is also inversely correlated to battery size. A bigger battery tends to lose less range in the cold than a smaller one. Big ones have more mass for surface area, and will keep warm longer when conditioned to the right temperature. Cabin heat is a big draw, but again is a relatively fixed energy draw, a bigger battery can obviously provide the same amount of warm air with less drastic of a range loss.

I'd imagine you have a Leaf or something similar? Conditioning the battery prior to use means that the battery is pre-heated or pre-cooled prior to use. This keeps the draw down on the battery by using grid power to minimize weather effects. My Volt can heat the car and battery off grid power, or run the air conditioner to cool the car and battery before I use it.

[misher]

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

I'd imagine you have a Leaf or something similar? Conditioning the battery prior to use means that the battery is pre-heated or pre-cooled prior to use. This keeps the draw down on the battery by using grid power to minimize weather effects. My Volt can heat the car and battery off grid power, or run the air conditioner to cool the car and battery before I use it.

You made several good points. i3 with Rex (I got the lease down to a crazy $630 including tax!).

I note that you say hazardous cargos are banned from tunnels but isn't that giant truck battery hazardous too? The risk is minimal but if it ever happened it would not be good.

I am wondering if the size of trucks would allow for solar panels to be useful? In the states and mexico though not here. I know for yachts they are beginning to become popular:

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

Why wouldn't I believe Musk?

He's the worlds biggest bullshitter. The question is not why you shouldn't believe him, but why you should

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

They're reportedly looking at a battery around 6-10x larger than is used in the Model S/X, and a charge rate of over a 1 MW.

If the battery is actually 1000 kWh, that would put it at roughly equivalent to 350 L of gas, or a bit less of diesel. My Volt would use about 20 kWh for 100km, or 7L of gas. You can compare efficiencies based on a similar ratio.

A Tesla weighs about 2000kg, a loaded semi weighs over 40,000kg. So you'd actually need 20x the battery capacity just to match the range of the Tesla. But most trucks have about twice the range of a Tesla, so make that 40x. How much will those batteries weigh? A lot, enough to eliminate the payload, and how much would they cost? Also a lot. And once you start talking about 1MW chargers, how much heat are you going to generate charging these enormous battery packs? Again, a lot, so much that you likely won't be able to charge close to that rate. It's going to take a lot longer to recharge this beast than the 10 minutes it takes to fill 2x400L tanks of diesel.

Even if I'm being too pessimistic, the numbers are so far off to make the idea of an electric, long distance semi truck fantastical for now. For short range deliveries, sure, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

[misher]

Holy crap goodjob BC NDP!

https://biv.com/article/2019/03/lng-canada-get-3-corporate-income-tax-cut

When the NDP government announced last year that it would scrap a suite of special LNG taxes introduced by the previous Liberal government, it was characterized as putting the LNG industry on the same footing as any other industry.

The LNG industry would pay the same income tax and BC Hydro rates as any other industry, the government said.

But enabling legislation introduced today, March 25, on the government’s new LNG tax regime appears to give large projects like LNG Canada a subsidy in the form of a special tax break.

The legislation grants large projects that have agreements with the province – like LNG Canada – a special 3% tax credit on the cost of natural gas. This will bring the company’s corporate income tax rate down from 12% to 9%.

It appears smaller projects like Woodfibre LNG won’t be eligible for the tax break, since it only applies to projects that have signed agreements with the province.

Even before the legislation was tabled, Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver slammed the tax incentives being offered the industry as a “general sellout.”

The changes being made to the Liberal LNG tax regime not only eliminates a special LNG tax, it also offers the industry the same industrial rate for power that other industries pay, and it provides a $596 million deferral on PST on the project's capital costs.

The deferral applies to the capital spent on the LNG plant in Kitimat, export dock, storage facilities and work camps.

The company will only start paying PST back after the LNG plant in Kitimat is operating, or within seven years, whichever comes first, with payments starting out small and getting larger towards the end of the 20-year payback period. Other manufacturing facilities in B.C. get PST exemptions on capital investments, with no obligations to pay it back, government officials said in a technical briefing.

Under the NDP government's new CleanBC plan, LNG plants that are able to demonstrate that they meet or beat low emissions benchmarks, will also get a break on carbon taxes. They will still pay $30 per tonne. But as the carbon tax rises, they will be eligible for the incremental amount they pay to come back, if they demonstrate their plants meet or beat certain emissions intensity benchmarks.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by milomilo

For a semi, no it isn't and it won't be able to get that range carrying 30 tons of cargo either, if we're talking lithium ion batteries. We're not close to the energy density required yet, and it won't take 15 minutes to charge either. If it takes 30 minutes to charge a 2 ton Tesla now, it's going to take 20 times that to charge the batteries to give equivalent range to a 40 ton truck.

Don't believe the Musk-aid. The numbers are fantasy.

Which numbers? It's physics.The advertised electricity consumption of the Tesla semi is about 8 times that of my Model 3 car, at 300 & 500 mile range options. This type of usage is exactly where electric propulsion will pay itself back.

https://www.tesla.com/semi

Tesla has made some bold promises, and Musk is his own worst enemy, but the haters make me roll me eyes.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Tesla has made some bold promises, and Musk is his own worst enemy, but the haters make me roll me eyes.

I feel exactly the opposite. Musk can say whatever he wants, and people believe him without question. That's basically religion. This semi truck either defies physics and known current technology, or it will not have the claimed capabilities. There is nothing inherently earth shattering about a Tesla, he just strapped a shit ton of li-ion batteries onto a car. But you can't scale that up effectively to a transport truck.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

Why wouldn't I believe Musk? They're reportedly looking at a battery around 6-10x larger than is used in the Model S/X, and a charge rate of over a 1 MW.

The range and usage they are describing indicates 600kWh and 1MWh batteries will be options. Tesla Semis have already been spotted in the wild charging from multiple (five) supercharger connections at once. I believe those were 120kW connections, but new stations will have 250kW. It's possible they will be higher when the Semi is launched, and/or dedicated to Semis, at strategic sites for long haul trucking.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by milomilo

I feel exactly the opposite. Musk can say whatever he wants, and people believe him without question. That's basically religion. This semi truck either defies physics and known current technology, or it will not have the claimed capabilities. There is nothing inherently earth shattering about a Tesla, he just strapped a shit ton of li-ion batteries onto a car. But you can't scale that up effectively to a transport truck.

Some people believe, him, others don't. Tesla is among the most shorted stocks in history, so there's plenty of people out there with a ton of money riding on him failing. They exert extreme pressure on Tesla and Musk in particular.

Plenty of things are "easy on paper". Why has it come down to Tesla to force the entire auto industry to change? Surely Ford could have done it if they wanted, right?

How about Space-X. Surely NASA, RSA, or CNSA could have designed a cheap re-usable rocket right? Simple stuff after all.

[milomilo]

I agree he's a smart guy (an understatement) and attracts a lot of smart people to work for him. But that does not mean we should treat his word as gospel - look at hyperloop. That was demonstrably nonsense, but the whole world lapped it up - 'a lie can get halfway around the world before the truth can put its pants on'.

[milomilo]

https://electrek.co/2016/07/27/daimler-etruck-first-all-electric-truck-125-miles-range/

This is more likely the kind of capability we can expect. Even if they can get the energy density improved (big if), charging is still going to be difficult - the amount of power (heat) that has to go into the battery pack is going to be insane. What if two of these trucks wants to recharge at the same time?

And what of the cost? How much of the cost of a Tesla is just the battery right now, and you need 10 - 20x more of those on top of an already expensive vehicle.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by milomilo

I agree he's a smart guy (an understatement) and attracts a lot of smart people to work for him. But that does not mean we should treat his word as gospel - look at hyperloop. That was demonstrably nonsense, but the whole world lapped it up - 'a lie can get halfway around the world before the truth can put its pants on'.

Hyperloop is based on science that's been around for a long time, it's one step above maglev IMO. The biggest problems are probably cost of construction and acquiring the land for reasonable routes.

I was referring mostly to Tesla as far as his believability.

[misher]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Hyperloop is based on science that's been around for a long time, it's one step above maglev IMO. The biggest problems are probably cost of construction and acquiring the land for reasonable routes.

I was referring mostly to Tesla as far as his believability.

Well known for its appearance in James Bond. If the second pipeline ever gets built its supposed to be at far from peak capacity. I'm wondering if we can schedule a few hours a day for its use as a ride
• Video Link

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by misher

You made several good points. i3 with Rex (I got the lease down to a crazy $630 including tax!).

I note that you say hazardous cargos are banned from tunnels but isn't that giant truck battery hazardous too? The risk is minimal but if it ever happened it would not be good.

I am wondering if the size of trucks would allow for solar panels to be useful? In the states and mexico though not here. I know for yachts they are beginning to become popular:

Problem with solar is that it comes in a steady trickle throughout the day, and vehicles need power in big gulps; a panel on a Tesla semi would need about seven hours to recharge 2%. Better to have a bunch of big panels at the depot/marina and recharge there instead.

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Hyperloop is based on science that's been around for a long time, it's one step above maglev IMO. The biggest problems are probably cost of construction and acquiring the land for reasonable routes.

I'll have to call shenanigans on Hyperloop as well. Cost and practicality aside, Musk's own numbers say it can only move 840 pphpd. Maglev does 2,000+.

I think that he's fixated on it as a feat of engineering rather than an actual solution to a problem; same thing with his underground car tunnel network and Thai rescue sub.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Hyperloop is based on science that's been around for a long time, it's one step above maglev IMO. The biggest problems are probably cost of construction and acquiring the land for reasonable routes.

I was referring mostly to Tesla as far as his believability.

There are many reasons Hyperloop won't work, each of them a massive deal breaker - it's complete bunk. I point it out because just because Musk says something, does not automatically make it true and he has a history of brazenly lying while the world believes it.

• Video Link

I'm aware this looks like a conspiracy theory video, but it's worth a watch. The guy certainly sounds like he knows what he talks about and agrees with my knowledge of physics.

Apologies for jumping into a BC politics thread with complete OT, I just feel that when BS is believed it needs to be countered.

[Ben Dover]

Originally Posted by milomilo

I'm aware this looks like a conspiracy theory video, but it's worth a watch. The guy certainly sounds like he knows what he talks about and agrees with my knowledge of physics.

His Youtube "handle" is Thunderf00t and he has debunked several creationist loons and religious fanatics...
He knows his stuff, allright!

[Alex Mackinnon]

Originally Posted by milomilo

He's the worlds biggest bullshitter. The question is not why you shouldn't believe him, but why you should

A Tesla weighs about 2000kg, a loaded semi weighs over 40,000kg. So you'd actually need 20x the battery capacity just to match the range of the Tesla. But most trucks have about twice the range of a Tesla, so make that 40x. How much will those batteries weigh? A lot, enough to eliminate the payload, and how much would they cost? Also a lot. And once you start talking about 1MW chargers, how much heat are you going to generate charging these enormous battery packs? Again, a lot, so much that you likely won't be able to charge close to that rate. It's going to take a lot longer to recharge this beast than the 10 minutes it takes to fill 2x400L tanks of diesel.

Even if I'm being too pessimistic, the numbers are so far off to make the idea of an electric, long distance semi truck fantastical for now. For short range deliveries, sure, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

I'd say you're being far too pessimistic. All you need to do is scale up the existing product they make and bingo, you hit semi-sized numbers. It's not very complicated. A Tesla 3 has about 75 kWh for just under 500 kg in batteries. So, about 6.6 kg/kWh. 500 kWh = 3.3t, 1000 kWh = 6.6t. Heavier than a big diesel, but not impossible.

What makes you think cooling off 1 MW is that hard either? A 500 hp car probably gives off 1 MW of waste heat. A 1 MW charge rate on a battery probably only loses 10-15% of that, so 100-150 kW. These batteries will be huge and actively cooled, they can both soak up and dissipate a huge amount of energy. The battery pack on the Model 3 can already charge at 250 kW-peak on a 75 kWh battery. If you put 13 of those in parallel to make 1000 kWh, reasonably 13 of those batteries in parallel could take over 3 MW if the cooling system was scaled.

Fuel consumption doesn't scale directly scale with weight, only rolling resistance does that. Just compare how much many MPG a loaded truck gets compared to a large sedan. A semi gets about 5 MPG, a big sedan gets maybe 30 MPG. Despite the semi being 20x heavier, it uses only 6x the fuel.

The jump from 30% to about 90% efficiency takes care of most of the other energy density problems.