How cities voted

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by lio45

Minnesota has had by far the longest blue state streak of all

i'm well aware of minnesota's blue streak in US presidential politics, but i'm not talking about how states voted 4 decades ago, i'm talking about the here and now. hillary only carried MN by a very narrow 1.5 points. i'd hardly call the state "firewall" country for the dems these days. as i said earlier, i was a bit shocked at how close the vote was in MN given the state's track record.

with its 16 point vote margin, illinois is now the only completely safe non-coastal "firewall" state for the dems. trump proved that with a shameless populist running against a lackluster dem candidate, the GOP can put all of the midwest in play, with the exception of IL. IL wasn't even close to flipping.

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Swing states do tend to have higher turnout, but it's not a one-to-one correlation.

You also need to factor in that some swing states like North Carolina and Florida go to great lengths to discourage voting especially voting among certain racial groups.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

with its 16 point vote margin, illinois is now the only completely safe non-coastal "firewall" state for the dems.

Eh. Honestly, I'd say wait for 2020 to see if it's a realignment or a fluke. Consider the following.

1. Trump might not be on the ticket in 2020 at all. He could be impeached, but I think it's more likely that he either resigns mid-term, or chooses not to run for a second term, because he doesn't find being a president to be that fun. It's unlikely that Pence or whoever else will have the same appeal in the Rust Belt, or campaign on the same issues, if Trump decides to call it quits.

2. Even if Trump does run again, unless he's actually successful in turning around these areas in some demonstrable way, a lot of the voters who swung to him this time around may not do it again.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Eh. Honestly, I'd say wait for 2020 to see if it's a realignment or a fluke. Consider the following.

i'm not saying that it's a permanent realignment or anything, i'm just saying that 2016 proved that there aren't any non-coastal states that are an automatic 100% lock for the dems, except IL.

when 2020 rolls around, the dems are going to have to pay attention to and spend money in PA, MI, WI, and MN. conversely, they won't need to spend a single red cent in IL.