YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[excel]

^I'll second that as I have been following since the start and I enjoy the diverse topics discussed on this thread.

[deasine]

Originally Posted by dharper

Not that there is anything wrong with airline route discussion, but why is it in a thread about development of YVR and Sea Island?

Well it is the development of YVR but not necessarily from a physical perspective as many forumers tend to relate to (given this is a skyscraper forum). A separate thread may lead to too many dead-ends and canabalise the success of this thread topic.

[trofirhen]

HOURGLASS sent me this pdf about possible Air Canada expansion between now and 2018, (signed by Calin Rovinescu, of course)

All looks fine and dandy, but at the end of the day, there is STILL no YVR-DEL service, and NO YVR-MIA service.

Will Air India take us to Delhi? Will an American line come to Miami?

Also, nothing to Qatar or Dubai. Nothing. I note this because AC is starting up YYZ-DXB in the near future. We have nothing to the Middle East
(not even Istanbul), and are forced to change at YYZ for South America, and many other places. (the usual.......)

pdf:pages 37 to 41.

http://www.aircanada.com/en/about/media/presentations/documents/investor_day_2015.pdf

[LeftCoaster]

I don't know how much I'd read into a single graphic from an investors presentation. It's probably done with more of a stylistic approach in mind, not any actual business plans. It did also show a lot of things that aren't the case after all, including AC to Paris, Singapore, Sapporo etc... all of which I don't see happening.

In other news YVR finally updated their route map. Nice to see the new routes cluttering up the globe and a few new tails on the roster. Sure hope that's not the end of the additions though! http://www.yvr.ca/libraries/maps/destinations.sflb.ashx

[Gordon]

LAX Doesn't mention AA or Dl

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I don't know how much I'd read into a single graphic from an investors presentation. It's probably done with more of a stylistic approach in mind, not any actual business plans. It did also show a lot of things that aren't the case after all, including AC to Paris, Singapore, Sapporo etc... all of which I don't see happening.

In other news YVR finally updated their route map. Nice to see the new routes cluttering up the globe and a few new tails on the roster. Sure hope that's not the end of the additions though! http://www.yvr.ca/libraries/maps/destinations.sflb.ashx

Ugh! That route listing has sooo many errors on it...don't even know where to begin!

And agreed lets not get too carried away with the Investors Day graphic.

For YVR - what I do see as more likely:
CDG (rouge), CAN (although it is showing YYZ), TPE, NGO (rouge).
Also possibly BNE and MEL and less likely but maybe AKL as well.
Despite the chart not showing YVR-DEL that is certainly more likely than anything to the Middle East... The O&D to the Middle East is very small as I discussed when we talked about Turkish to IST.

I too see SIN and CTS as very unlikely.

Also lets not get too excited as this is only for overseas international and not USA expansion.

Let's rewind to the 2013 Investors Day graphic showing the potential 787 routes.. Only one of those routes YYZ-DEL is coming to fruition.

I'm an optimist but I'm also a realist...

At the end of the day.... Come on trofirhen... it's really not all that bad is it?

Edit: as for hubs it labels YYZ as its "global hub" and YUL and YVR as "specialised hubs." YVR to be transpacific focused which I guess is the case... so not sure what more we can ask for!

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Ugh! ........

At the end of the day.... Come on trofirhen... it's really not all that bad is it?

No, it is indeed not that bad, but there's nothing anywhere listed, either in a formal business plan or a dream plan, that
has flights to either Delhi, or even Miami. And ... (although Politically Incorrect to say so) ... I'd love to see EK or QATAR in here,
once the India issue is resolved, not to mention a couple of direct (even same-plane) flights maybe on Aeromexico; São Paulo, Lima, if nothing else .... for the future, of course.
*And I think you yourself said, back during my Paris rants, that you could MAYBE see Rouge doing it seasonally.
OK. Maintenant, pffft, voilà!! ... Paris year round on Air France itself.
(Hard to predict these things, though, I will admit)

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

No, it is indeed not that bad, but there's nothing anywhere listed, either in a formal business plan or a dream plan, that
has flights to either Delhi, or even Miami. And ... (although Politically Incorrect to say so) ... I'd love to see EK or QATAR in here,
once the India issue is resolved, not to mention a couple of direct (even same-plane) flights maybe on Aeromexico; São Paulo, Lima, if nothing else .... for the future, of course.
*And I think you yourself said, back during my Paris rants, that you could MAYBE see Rouge doing it seasonally.
OK. Maintenant, pffft, voilà!! ... Paris year round on Air France itself.
(Hard to predict these things, though, I will admit)

No believe me I completely understand your position as I've seen you say the same things many times. Not trying to diss you, and to be fair I've said this many times too but... YVR has made huge inroads in the last few years so many more than most global airports. New airlines, new destinations and more to come I am sure.
I just don't see the market viability of some of those destinations. Yes, some of these markets exist but are they big enough to warrant direct flights? Probably not. YVR is probably better connected than you think. Most major destinations can be reached from YVR with one stop. As has been discussed many times, YVR-DEL has a huge potential but serving it profitably is the risk.
Hey, I'm sure we would all love to see EK, QR etc here but those destinations lack the O&D needed. A vast majority of pax flying to either DXB or DOH would be connecting pax. We know the Canadian government allows routes more based on traffic flows between two cities/countries versus the potential connecting opportunities at certain hubs. Obviously DXB and DOH are two of those.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

.............
Hey, I'm sure we would all love to see EK, QR etc here but those destinations lack the O&D needed. A vast majority of pax flying to either DXB or DOH would be connecting pax. We know the Canadian government allows routes more based on traffic flows between two cities/countries versus the potential connecting opportunities at certain hubs. Obviously DXB and DOH are two of those.

Thanks for that feedback, Johnny.
However, I still have a question. If the feds allow routes based more on O/D traffic flows than connecting hubs ....
Why is Toronto, - lined up to get DEL, - already allowed (on a strict basis, I admit) DBX on EK, with AC planning its own YYZ to DBX?
Surely there can't be that much O/D traffic there, (YYZ-DBX) even if it's a big market like Toronto. I don't quite get it. What am I not understanding?

[Klazu]

Originally Posted by excel

^I'll second that as I have been following since the start and I enjoy the diverse topics discussed on this thread.

I enjoy it as well, but my only beef is that there are certain topics that keep repeating every few months with nothing new to be added in. It's like listening to an broken record when (many times the same) people keep wondering about the same things over and over again.

My apologies if I sounds like a broken record at times, but I am sure you know what I mean here. Now carry on.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Thanks for that feedback, Johnny.
However, I still have a question. If the feds allow routes based more on O/D traffic flows than connecting hubs ....
Why is Toronto, - lined up to get DEL, - already allowed (on a strict basis, I admit) DBX on EK, with AC planning its own YYZ to DBX?
Surely there can't be that much O/D traffic there, (YYZ-DBX) even if it's a big market like Toronto. I don't quite get it. What am I not understanding?

1) DEL
I do not believe there is a restriction on YVR-DEL from the feds side. I am pretty sure AC or AI could start tomorrow if they wanted. However, that is not the issue in DEL's case. Again and not to beat a dead horse, there is a huge market for YVR-DEL but the issue is being able to serve that viably. Most of the traffic would be VFR traffic which tends to be low yielding and there are sooooo many onestop options to DEL as it is and that market is spread amongst so many airlines and routes already (I won't list them all) to pull enough of the targeted passengers on to a non-stop flight would require heavy discounting.
To put the Canada-India market into perspective. The YYZ-India market is almost 3 x the size of YVR-India which in turn is over 3 x the size of the next largest Canada-India market being YYC. Also, YYZ-India is more widespread as to intended destination although DEL is still #1. YVR, as we all know, is much more DEL-centric in its traffic. Now compared to Brazil - YYZ-India is over 4 x the size of YYZ-Brazil. One would expect more flights from YYZ-India based on this stat for example, but because it is a lower yielding route with plenty of one-stop options, there aren't as many direct flights as you would expect. Also, YYZ-India would have a lot more business traffic than YVR.
2) DXB
Believe it or not the YYZ-UAE market is a lot bigger than you think. It is far from being huge, but when compared to any market in Western Canada it certainly is. About 10 x bigger than both YVR-UAE and YYC-UAE. This is actually one of the very few world markets where YYC is almost as big as YVR. Also, to put it into perspective it is bigger than YVR-France and on par with YYC-Germany to give you an idea of how large it is. So the feds have allowed the number of flights based on the O&D of the market. Air Canada has certainly had the rights to do it, but they didn't have the right aircraft for it. When AC was shopping around for new aircraft it would be routes like these that would have been what they were buying them for. And of course, reciprocal rights required by the other nation who we all know want more... but I am NOT touching that anymore!

But like Klazu said just above, I get it but this does come up over and over and I have tried to explain it before... hopefully this will make sense and put the whole YVR market into better perspective for you.

[hoboman27]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

HOURGLASS sent me this pdf about possible Air Canada expansion between now and 2018, (signed by Calin Rovinescu, of course)

http://www.aircanada.com/en/about/media/presentations/documents/investor_day_2015.pdf

Just looking over the presentation, page 35



I didn't know Air Canada was going to be reconfiguring their fleets to add that many extra seats.

[SFUVancouver]

^ I was surprised when I took an Air Canada 777-200LR from Sydney to Vancouver that they were using 3-3-3 seating as opposed to the higher density 3-4-3. I can see the Rouge 767 being pretty brutal if they're squeezing in as much as a 47% increase in seats.

[deasine]

I don't think I understand that chart. The Boeing 777-300ER HD today already has 458 seats under today's configuration (unless these were averages amongst the entire fleet of 777-300ERs).

The international fleet of planes were noted to be reconfigured with new seats that "match" the fittings of the newest (i.e. HD configuration). I assume that the increase of 30 seats will come to adding a seat to every row, or reducing J, or a combination of both.

[Johnny Aussie]

Later this month Vancouver is hosting the 136th IATA Slot Conference.

Very good exposure for YVR with over 200 airlines attending.

https://www.iata.org/events/sc136/pages/index.aspx

[casper]

Originally Posted by deasine

I don't think I understand that chart. The Boeing 777-300ER HD today already has 458 seats under today's configuration (unless these were averages amongst the entire fleet of 777-300ERs).

The international fleet of planes were noted to be reconfigured with new seats that "match" the fittings of the newest (i.e. HD configuration). I assume that the increase of 30 seats will come to adding a seat to every row, or reducing J, or a combination of both.

The story I was told is those HD aircraft were being built for another low cost airlines (Virgin xxx of some sort) and the decision was made not to launch the airline. Since they were already into the manufacturing process Air Canada was able to get a real good deal on buying them but could not change the layout as most of the long lead time items were already on order. Those aircraft are a bit of a compromise.

They announced they are going to 3-4-3 when they do the mid-life refurbishment on the existing 777 as well as installing the same business class seats as the 787. I would not be surprised if the density of the HD becomes less especially if they upgrade the business cabin.

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by casper

The story I was told is those HD aircraft were being built for another low cost airlines (Virgin xxx of some sort) and the decision was made not to launch the airline. Since they were already into the manufacturing process Air Canada was able to get a real good deal on buying them but could not change the layout as most of the long lead time items were already on order. Those aircraft are a bit of a compromise.

They announced they are going to 3-4-3 when they do the mid-life refurbishment on the existing 777 as well as installing the same business class seats as the 787. I would not be surprised if the density of the HD becomes less especially if they upgrade the business cabin.

HAECO got the contract to refurbish the Air Canada 777 interiors to 787 spec.

[CareerShow]

Hopefully the HD aircraft get changed to the new configuration. Those planes are cramped.

[Johnny Aussie]

Looks like NewLeaf Travel will be the first out of the block...

HQ will be YWG

Naturally lots of press across all major news sources....

http://www.newleaftravel.ca/about-newleaf.html

"Beginning in the Summer of 2015, NewLeaf will deliver scheduled nonstop flights from our main bases in Kelowna, Winnipeg and Hamilton to multiple domestic and international destinations."

Summer starts in two weeks! They might want to get going!

http://www.thestar.com/business/2015/06/...ould-be-landing-at-hamilton-airport.html

From this story...

“We will be announcing our route plans for domestic Canada at the end of this month,” said chief commercial officer Bob Jones in an interview.

From the same story...

David Solloway, president of Canada Jetlines, says his company still aims to do an initial public offering in September to raise $50 million in capital, with a launch six months later.

Hmmmmm.... sounds like they are pushed back again.

“We wish them (NewLeaf) all the best, but we are starting an airline. It’s totally different,” he said.

And the Enerjet/Jet Naked talk...

Darcy Morgan, chief commercial officer at Enerjet, which has floated the name Jet Naked as a placeholder, says his company won’t pre-announce any plans.

“In the Canadian aviation industry, in the last year, there have been more announcements than on a PA system in a bus station,” Morgan said.

“When we are committed and ready, we’ll let the world know,” he said, adding Enerjet continually looks at the market for opportunities, including scheduled service.

Let the ULCC games begin!

[deasine]

Originally Posted by CareerShow

Hopefully the HD aircraft get changed to the new configuration. Those planes are cramped.

The "new configuration" is the HD configuration. The 787 seats in Y are practically no different than the new 777s (only in W and J that they are much better).

Security/customs breach today. Can we say "TWOV?"
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/yvr-security-breach-beijing-air-canada-passengers-skip-customs-1.2412182