Calgary International Airport II

[casper]

Originally Posted by Cage

If NRT goes, there is no need for separation between international (non transborder) and domestic departures. They might as well just remove the wall separating C70 domestic desks from the international departures. The only remaining impact would be to require duty free to transport purchases to the aircraft door.

Given YYC likes "innovative" unique solutions, I would not put it past them to try to use drones to delivery duty free to the gates.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Acey

Yes there have been rumblings and now it is gone from the sked, winter is not finalized so there's always a slim chance... but this is not good. Currently ending at the end of October.

It's possible it may not even be a seasonal cut. I think AC is really looking at keeping YYC's LHR and FRA but using YVR as the sole transpacific gateway for the west.

The fact that they've already downgauged AC9 this summer to a 763 and originating the flight in YYZ was a move that certainly made me go hmmmmm.

Other than the sun destination increases and the resumption of YQQ AC is definitely not putting any stamp of "hub" on its YYC ops anymore.

[msmariner]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

It's possible it may not even be a seasonal cut. I think AC is really looking at keeping YYC's LHR and FRA but using YVR as the sole transpacific gateway for the west.

The fact that they've already downgauged AC9 this summer to a 763 and originating the flight in YYZ was a move that certainly made me go hmmmmm.

Other than the sun destination increases and the resumption of YQQ AC is definitely not putting any stamp of "hub" on its YYC ops anymore.

From my limited knowledge in the airline industry if one airline pulls out of a market and there are still passengers flying to that destination I would bet another airline would take its place. What are the odds of WestJet or an another Asian Airline taking its place?

[msmariner]

Originally Posted by Acey

Microscopic chance, at least initially.

a) WS wouldn't consider this until the arrival of their 787 first quarter next year, and they won't be jumping straight into NRT
b) Your theory is not really true as countless routes remain without service after an airline pulls out. In any case it's not applicable in this scenario as, in the absence of AC9, AC will simply route NRT destined passengers through YVR as they did prior to the launch of AC9

Your theory isn’t all true. Not everyone wants to have to be routed through Yvr. Given the option on a direct route to Asia that will be a lot of people’s choice. hainan could up frequency or another airline could come in besides WestJet.
Since no one knows what AC has in there plans it will be interesting to see

[hollywoodcory]

Originally Posted by msmariner

Your theory isn’t all true. Not everyone wants to have to be routed through Yvr. Given the option on a direct route to Asia that will be a lot of people’s choice. hainan could up frequency or another airline could come in besides WestJet.
Since no one knows what AC has in there plans it will be interesting to see

HU can’t increase frequency. I also don’t see them upping the metal either at least for now.

WS would probably be the likely candidate should AC drop NRT, but it wouldn’t happen for a while.

I think ANA previously served YYC?

As of now, I’m holding out that this is just a seasonal cut rather then it being dropped entirely.

[Cage]

Some perspective on the potential for AC to drop YYC-NRT.

With WS going into the widebody longhaul market, AC is repositioning to make YYZ, YUL, and YVR their hill to die on. YYC is being sacrificed/given to WS. Overall this makes sense, AC takes the top three markets and WS get market #4.

It appears the long awaited JV with Air China is nearing completion and will be consummated in May or June. This JV cannot be understated if it is to be as far reaching as promised. I could see AC trading YYC-NRT for YYC-PEK on the 333. NH is a lukewarm partner at best with AC, but a CA-AC hookup at PEK would be YYUUUUGEEEE.

AC is getting rid of the mainline 763s in favour of 333s. NRT with little to no beyond connections is practically useless compared to preferential access to PEK.

I have been told as soon as last year that if ac gets commercially viable slots at PEK, they will start YYC-PEK.

YYC-NRT is on WS radar. I could see them going to NRT and Japan as its more open WRT bilateral than China and especially PEK. Also, there is less yield diluting crazy pricing on the Japan side compared to China.

A competitive and efficient schedule for WS 789 ops could be YYC-NRT-YYC-LGW-YYC and then mtce backup. This would be a good 2.5 airplane commitment. Timing would work if the airplane went for mtce after the LGW arrival.

AC on YYC-PEK would effectively neutralize WS from doing the same from either YVR or YYC. Again I would expect PEK to be 5x/wk summer 2x/wk winter, similar to AC9/10.

Overall I this is another point where WS making YYC the super hub will have some short term pain. Other airlines will pull away from YYC rather than go head to head with WS.

Next steps is for WS to consummate their JV with DL.

[casper]

Computer network upgrade delays morning flights at Calgary International Airport

http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/network-issues-cause-delays-at-calgary-airport

Sounds like there CUTE system was done. Not Cute.

In the news article there is a bunny rabbit giving out chocolate to appease the frustrated flyers. Cute.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Cage

Some perspective on the potential for AC to drop YYC-NRT.

With WS going into the widebody longhaul market, AC is repositioning to make YYZ, YUL, and YVR their hill to die on. YYC is being sacrificed/given to WS. Overall this makes sense, AC takes the top three markets and WS get market #4.

It appears the long awaited JV with Air China is nearing completion and will be consummated in May or June. This JV cannot be understated if it is to be as far reaching as promised. I could see AC trading YYC-NRT for YYC-PEK on the 333. NH is a lukewarm partner at best with AC, but a CA-AC hookup at PEK would be YYUUUUGEEEE.

AC is getting rid of the mainline 763s in favour of 333s. NRT with little to no beyond connections is practically useless compared to preferential access to PEK.

I have been told as soon as last year that if ac gets commercially viable slots at PEK, they will start YYC-PEK.

YYC-NRT is on WS radar. I could see them going to NRT and Japan as its more open WRT bilateral than China and especially PEK. Also, there is less yield diluting crazy pricing on the Japan side compared to China.

A competitive and efficient schedule for WS 789 ops could be YYC-NRT-YYC-LGW-YYC and then mtce backup. This would be a good 2.5 airplane commitment. Timing would work if the airplane went for mtce after the LGW arrival.

AC on YYC-PEK would effectively neutralize WS from doing the same from either YVR or YYC. Again I would expect PEK to be 5x/wk summer 2x/wk winter, similar to AC9/10.

Overall I this is another point where WS making YYC the super hub will have some short term pain. Other airlines will pull away from YYC rather than go head to head with WS.

Next steps is for WS to consummate their JV with DL.

If WestJet had to pick a hub to provide onward connections in Asia you would think they would want somewhere where they have a strong partner. Give how WS has distanced itself from some of the One World partner it use to work with, is JAL on the table?

Would Incheon International not make more sense and partner with Korean.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by casper

If WestJet had to pick a hub to provide onward connections in Asia you would think they would want somewhere where they have a strong partner. Give how WS has distanced itself from some of the One World partner it use to work with, is JAL on the table?

Would Incheon International not make more sense and partner with Korean.

Bilateral route rights are the major stumbling blocks to WS Asia strategy. Without open skies type policies, WS will be the red headed foster child to AC owning all the international route rights out of Canada.

In north Asia market area, NRT is Best option WS has to enter. It’s near open skies and there are open slots compared to other gateway airports.

Lack of strong O&D is the major issue for WS using ICN to connect the world. That and their primary sky team partner (DL) is known to fued with the local ICN hub carrier.

China is a hot mess for bilateral negotiations. It’s unlikely the Chinese will cede both route rights and slots necessary for WS to operate into any Beijing airport, doubly troubling if WS tries for YVR-PEK without offering YYC- PEK as an innovative solution. WRT China skyteam Airlines, DL has open hostility toward one partner and dphardly interacts with the other partner.

Where WS has greater chance of success is TransAt market. However in going heavy into Europe, they risk having too much airplane in the 789 or having the slightly costlier option when comparing 789 to 333 on TransAt type stage lengths.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Cage

I could see AC trading YYC-NRT for YYC-PEK on the 333.

YYC-PEK is pushing it on the A333. It's just as long as YUL-TLV, and we know AC leaves seats open when operating the westbound leg.

When YYC-PEK happens, it will most likely be a B788.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

YYC-PEK is pushing it on the A333. It's just as long as YUL-TLV, and we know AC leaves seats open when operating the westbound leg.

When YYC-PEK happens, it will most likely be a B788.

And there’s the problem, with so few B788s in the AC fleet (only 8) and no new ones coming online, those are more likely to be placed on routes with less risk. The only way that would happen is if a current 788 would be upgauged to a 789 or pulled entirely. But again, that would be assuming YYC-PEK would be more commercially viable than any other existing 788 route.
YYC-PEK not only would be competing with HU but the plethora of other flights to China from YVR. Air Canada’s focus is slowly drifting away from a 4 hub model to a 3 hub model. For a country the size of Canada that makes sense. I’m sure even since last year AC’s strategy has shifted even more in that direction. So whatecer AC “said” last year most likely is not relevant today.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Acey

It's too early to say, given that the additional 333's AC acquires could be newer frames and therefore have longer legs. Hainan's 333's are newer and have been here multiple times, operating to PEK without issue.

That said, I too don't anticipate a launch of YYC-PEK by AC.

I have done YVR-NRT on Air Canada on the 333. That is at least doable with the existing aircraft they have. That said AC has more seats in its 333, it is also more premium heavy. They may have some routes where it is a better fit and the YYC Asia flight is a 787-8.

[CrossedTheTracks]

Originally Posted by Acey

Yes AC's are the 343X which is supposed to be ~5,500 nm range. YVR/YYC-PEK and YUL-TLV are all sub-5,000 nm. I don't know the extent of the incremental improvement in 333 range since 2001.

YUL-TLV and YYC-PEK are 5483 and 5451 nm respectively, great circle distance.

[thenoflyzone]

AC's 4 additional A333s are most likely coming from TP, which are themselves ex. SQ frames.

They are at best 233t MTOW, as they were all built in 2009, a year when the max TOW on offer for the A333 was 233t.

So slightly better than AC's 230t birds, but YYC-PEK is still on the edge of what they can do with a full payload, considering headwinds, non optimal ATC routings and such, that all add miles and eat up fuel.

Those 3 extra tonnes can make all the difference though on 10hr + routes such as these. And of course, a brand new 242t A333 would have no issues whatsoever with YYC-PEK.

[CrossedTheTracks]

Originally Posted by Acey

You're forgiven for making the same mistake the entire internet makes when talking about range. Miles are a tough thing.

Nuts! I thought gcmap was giving me nm. I know what 'miles' are, apparently I just suck at paying enough attention to the units it's giving me. Thanks for the gentle correction.

[FormerWingTipper]

I am still very surprised that AC dropped YYC-NRT. I guess there is still hope it is summer seasonal.

But if they can't make YYC-NRT work after trying to allow it to mature for years, I can't believe that they would then try YYC-PEK out of the blue. I think we lost any hope of YYC-Asia for the time being.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by FormerWingTipper

I think we lost any hope of YYC-Asia for the time being.

Well except Hainan is still running YYC-PEK. I be they would up frequencies if they were not bilateral capped too.

I personally would be surprised if any cut of YYC-NRT was permanent, mainly due to Asian appetite for Banff.

If AC is able to source a couple more frames I bet NRT survives as a summer seasonal over the near future.

[The Chemist]

Any talk of PEK being slot-limited is short sighted, given that the new Beijing Daxing airport will be opening in about 3 years' time. I wouldn't be surprised to see Westjet move into PEK at that time, though probably not before.

Still dreaming of a direct PVG-YYC flight, but looking more and more like it's never going to happen.

[LeftCoaster]

^ Surprising since PVG is the much higher O&D destination at YVR and I would assume also at YYC.

I wouldn't be surprised to see AC go YYC-PEK and WJ do YYC-PVG, but those would probably come at the expense of any flight to Tokyo.

WJ will either hit it out of the park with their YYC intl hub or be in a lot of trouble, depending on what happens with the economy there. While the airport has been humming along well through the downturn, operating a long haul hub is a totally different beast and if business traffic can't sustain the flights those dreamliners are probably all headed to YYZ.

[hollywoodcory]

Well NRT loads are lighter in the winter months, they didn’t seem low enough to raise any concerns this winter. They seemed almost on par with how the route did last year.

I did however suspect something was going to happen when AC announced YVR-YZF flights. A good portion of folks on NRT in the winter either originated in The Philippines or are connecting to YZF. With flights from YVR, it eliminates a need to connect through YYC.