Hamilton Votes 2008

[adam]

And Harper's not stupid, he knew this would happen when he threatened to pull funding for political parties. He timed it just right.. What a selfish action on behalf of a minority government.

[FairHamilton]

Originally Posted by adam

And Harper's not stupid, he knew this would happen when he threatened to pull funding for political parties. He timed it just right.. What a selfish action on behalf of a minority government.

I think he goofed. He might be smart but power corrupts, and absolute power..... He miscalculated that the opposition would be able to work together. I couldn't see any government wanting a non-confidence at this stage. Going to election with the economy tanking would be tough, even when you are the only party with $$, above and beyond the $1.95/vote.

Oh yeah, he forgot he didn't have absolute power. If the coalition can hold together, one of 2 things will happen in January.

1. Non-confidence and the current government will ask the GG to dissolve parliament and we'll go to election.

2. Non-confidence and the current government will ask the GG to dissolve parliament and she should say that she gave the Conservatives the opportunity to get their act together and has a viable alternative for a government. That is essentially what Aird did in Ontario (without the prorogue).

[ryan_mcgreal]

Originally Posted by markbarbera

This is a stay of execution.

Harper's gamble is that the coalition can't hold together seamlessly until January 26. If they show serious signs of splintering, bickering or backstabbing over the next two months, that will undermine their claim that they can form a government. Alternately, the Liberals may still chicken out on the pretext that Harper's new budget plays nicer and that their coalition threat was 'a success' at making Parliament functional again.

Either way, that will be the end of the no-confidence threat and it will be back to business as usual, at least until after the Liberals replace Dion in May and manage to save up a war chest.

In the meantime, the Conservatives have very deep pockets to finance a relentless Rovian propaganda campaign painting the coalition as an unholy alliance of power-mad also-rans, "socialists" and "separatists" trying to undermine democracy by going against the will of the voters. (And they'll do it with a straight face.)

Originally Posted by adam

And Harper's not stupid, he knew this would happen when he threatened to pull funding for political parties. He timed it just right.. What a selfish action on behalf of a minority government.

No way. This was an epic screw-up on Harper's part, and he's in desperate damage-control mode right now. He may still manage to survive this fiasco, but his credibility is in tatters and he will have to tread very carefully once Parliament resumes.

I expect we'll see a lot less of his habit of making everything a confidence matter, now that the opposition has called his bluff.

[adam]

A month is time for him to sneak around and make backroom deals with non conservative MPs...

[Jon Dalton]

This is total bullshit. It's like calling in sick to work when you know the shit's about to hit the fan. Only worse because is this case work is the whole country of Canada.

[drpgq]

I have to admit, I'm a bit disappointed from a purely selfish standpoint. I was looking forward to the Canadian dollar tanking (I get paid in Euros) once Jack Layton and Bob Rae made it to cabinent and foisted a pointless and likely useless stimulus program on the nation.

[markbarbera]

Originally Posted by drpgq

I have to admit, I'm a bit disappointed from a purely selfish standpoint. I was looking forward to the Canadian dollar tanking (I get paid in Euros) once Jack Layton and Bob Rae made it to cabinent and foisted a pointless and likely useless stimulus program on the nation.

A stimulus package is exactly what is needed, and sooner rather than later. Most major economic powers (U.S., U.K., China, Japan, Germany) have recognized this need and have already introduced their stimulus packages.

With regards to your selfish standpoint, if we accept your faulty logic on the relationship between fiscal policy and the foreign exchange, you must be very satisfied right now. After all, the Canadian dollar has dropped nearly three cents in value since the GG agreed to prorogue and delay the Harper government's inevitable defeat in the House.

[adam]

We'll see some major inflation over the next couple years - we'll be paying $20 for a loaf of bread... some of you heard it hear first

[ryan_mcgreal]

Originally Posted by adam

We'll see some major inflation over the next couple years - we'll be paying $20 for a loaf of bread... some of you heard it hear first

We're actually at a more significant risk of deflation, through a vicious cycle of panicked deleveraging on underwater assets.

[drpgq]

Originally Posted by markbarbera

A stimulus package is exactly what is needed, and sooner rather than later. Most major economic powers (U.S., U.K., China, Japan, Germany) have recognized this need and have already introduced their stimulus packages.

With regards to your selfish standpoint, if we accept your faulty logic on the relationship between fiscal policy and the foreign exchange, you must be very satisfied right now. After all, the Canadian dollar has dropped nearly three cents in value since the GG agreed to prorogue and delay the Harper government's inevitable defeat in the House.

Sorry if I am skeptical of the effectiveness of any of these stimulus measures. Some may work, but most will take too long to get going especially infrastructure projects. Perhaps governments will be able to craft plans that will work wonderfully and pick winners and not reward the politically connected. Unfortunately I think we are in for a major recession that time not stimulus plans will solve.

With regards to the Euro/C$, 1.616 from what I'm looking at right now is not that remarkable. I've gotten around 1.65 the last few times, more luck than anything else.

[bornagainbiking]

I know this is not a simple issue. But the LONE issue right now is to soften the global recession on Canada and work our way thru this. Like fighting a guy with a knife we're gonna get cut just whatever we do will reduce the size of the wound.
All I hear is anti Harper rhetoric and if you don't like him that is your right.
Fact: The liberal war chest is empty and they lost what 35 seats, the green party can only exist on the $1.95 per vote and the NDP need the cash. So no-one can afford an election especially the taxpayers. It would be another couple hundred million $$$$.
Fact: unemployment is a major issue and growing daily. Many industry based workers are getting laid off. Do they want this NO!
So a leader who only got whatever percent lets say 37% is the Prime minister well 50% of Canadian weren't even interested enough to vote. However; the other parties had a lesser percent so this tactic is null and void as figures never lie but liars figure.
So the Concervatives decide "hey, everyone has to tighten their belt" So they themselves take the biggest hit $10 million (leadership by example) and cut out money intended for political parties paid for by the taxpayers who 50% couldn't care enough about politics to drive, walk or ride to the polling station.
So maybe it will affect party office workers and their lives. So the parties show their greed and contempt for the people by working out a plan to guarantee they are not affect one red cent.
Do you not think that Joe worker would like the power to say laid off. I don't think so I gonna just vote myself my job back.
Get real. This is all about money plain and simple, do you think the three stooges would even talk to each other if it wasn't for basic survival.
So don't go bananas over what politicians will do like asking the GG to suspend parliment when there is more deals going on, then Carter has Little liver pills.
STOP: Time is wasting, the focus must be on the economy not liberal leadership or self preservation. Who's paying for RAE and his carbon footprint to travel around the country and promote the coalition.
Some potential leader, a guy with the most experience (some loyalty issues) on working within a reccession and is more interested in his own personal agenda. We could use his insight. By the time they sort this coalition and liberal leadership out, it will be too late.
It has to be about CANADA and the taxpayers. If you don't like it, just think we need something done now, NOW and the coalition will not be up and running for anytime soon. Other countries are already getting their act together. We may have to set this nonsense asside for now and look at it again after the storm.
All energy must be directed to solving our problems in the global fiscal disaster.
Deb Gray said it right lock them all in a room and no one comes out till they learn to get along for OUR sake. Some liberals are saying the same thing, the smart one. They were elected to act in OUR best interest not their's.
Stop with the finger pointing and get on the business end of the shovel. It just robs from a collective Canadian focus.

[Mack297]

Mack

[ryan_mcgreal]

Originally Posted by bornagainbiking

I know this is not a simple issue. But the LONE issue right now is to soften the global recession on Canada and work our way thru this. [...] All I hear is anti Harper rhetoric and if you don't like him that is your right.

[...]

So a leader who only got whatever percent lets say 37% is the Prime minister well 50% of Canadian weren't even interested enough to vote.

However; the other parties had a lesser percent so this tactic is null and void as figures never lie but liars figure.

Actually, 59% of eligible Canadians voted and 41% did not.

There's some indication that new voting strictures reduced turnout, but I haven't yet seen a systematic study of how big the effect was.

Another likely factor in the reduced turnout is the frequency of elections. Parliamentary tradition holds that too many elections are bad for democracy, which is why the GG is encouraged to offer another party a chance to form a government if the PM is defeated soon after an election.

Voters do not elect the Prime Minister, the Cabinet, or the political parties. Voters only elect the House of Commons, a group of elected representatives from each constituency in the country. Canadian voters elect people, not parties.

The House of Commons represents the public, and the government is directly accountable to the House.

The GG appoints as Prime Minister that person who enjoys the confidence of a majority of MPs. The Prime Minister, in turn, appoints a Cabinet of Ministers. The Prime Minister and the Cabinet constitute the government, and they serve at the pleasure of the House of Commons.

The Prime Minister is accountable to the House of Commons (the elected representatives) and must retain the support of a majority of MPs to lead the government. If the party of which he is the leader controls less than half the seats in the House of Commons, the Prime Minister must ensure that his proposed legislation appeals to enough members of other parties to get a majority of votes on confidence motions.

Strictly speaking, there is no such thing as a "minority government". The government can only survive if it has the support of a majority of MPs. This is why Stephen Harper relied on the Bloc Quebecois (14 times) during the last three years to pass his government's legislation - the Conservative Party did not have enough seats to constitute a majority by itself.

The Conservative Party still does not have enough seats to constitute a majority, so Harper must appeal to members of other parties if he wants to stay in power.

Two weeks into his new Parliamentary session, Harper introduced a confidence motion on legislation that a majority of MPs oppose. He is by definition unfit to lead the government any more, because he lost the confidence of the House of Commons.

If you want to blame someone for making Parliament dysfunctional, blame the Prime Minister who is acting as through he is not accountable to the people's representatives in how he runs the government.

A majority of MPs are agreed on the course this country must take to address the global recession and have a plan to put in place immediately. They are cooperating to do what you have identified as the "LONE issue right now" for the government: execute a stimulus program to soften the global economic recession for Canada.

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister you are defending took his first opportunity to soften the global recession on Canada and used it instead to make ideological cuts and attack his political opponents.

When the House of Commons tried to hold him accountable for this, he actually suspended the Parliament for nearly two months, a period during which nothing is getting done to respond to the global crisis.

That's not "anti-Harper rhetoric", it's the cringe-inducing fact of the matter.

[SteelTown]

There's already hints that Bob Rae might lead the coalition government in January. I think this is a good idea with Bob being a former NDP leader and now a Liberal.

[ryan_mcgreal]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

There's already hints that Bob Rae might lead the coalition government in January. I think this is a good idea with Bob being a former NDP leader and now a Liberal.

Interesting that Michael Ignatieff is keeping his distance from his coalition. It looks like he's putting his own long-term political interests ahead of involvement in a controversial plan to produce a government that actually reflects the majority of MPs.

[ryan_mcgreal]

Bob Rae is out - Michael Ignatieff is the new Liberal leader.

[FairHamilton]

Originally Posted by ryan_mcgreal

Bob Rae is out - Michael Ignatieff is the new Liberal leader.

I heard Michael Ignatieff being interviewed on Sunday by Michael Enright.

Didn't sound hopeful for the coalition. Ignatieff was back-pedalling on whether the coalition was a fait d'accompli. Lots of, lets see what the Conservative come back with in January, blah, blah, blah.

I'd go as far to say unless the Conservatives really drop the ball again with the budget, the coalition is still born.

[ryan_mcgreal]

Originally Posted by FairHamilton

Didn't sound hopeful for the coalition. Ignatieff was back-pedalling on whether the coalition was a fait d'accompli. Lots of, lets see what the Conservative come back with in January, blah, blah, blah.

I'd go as far to say unless the Conservatives really drop the ball again with the budget, the coalition is still born.

Exactly. Ignatieff always maintained a safe distance from the coalition, and I strongly suspect his priorities as Liberal leader will be to rebuild the party, pay off its debts, accumulate a war chest and then campaign to win by themselves in a future election.

Say hello to probably another year of Conservative government with Harper at the helm.

[FairHamilton]

Originally Posted by ryan_mcgreal

Say hello to probably another year of Conservative government with Harper at the helm.

I'm betting 24 - 30 months. I'd even go as high as 36 months.

[flar]

Originally Posted by ryan_mcgreal

Exactly. Ignatieff always maintained a safe distance from the coalition, and I strongly suspect his priorities as Liberal leader will be to rebuild the party, pay off its debts, accumulate a war chest and then campaign to win by themselves in a future election.

Say hello to probably another year of Conservative government with Harper at the helm.

That's not so bad, we'll return to Liberal majorities.

The Conservatives got slapped down with the coalition gambit and won't be able to do as much damage (they'll have to act like a minority government) when parliament resumes.