Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport (YOW/CYOW) 1.0

[Dominion301]

Today’s departure count: 69

Today’s cancellation count (so far): 0

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

You can be a very frequent flyer and with NA only flights status of any value will be very tough with current Air Canada rules. It has also been devalued to a great extent especially domestically.

Someone who works for Meta or Google and goes to the Bay area frequently is very likely to switch for a direct flight even if it means not qualifying for the lounge in Frankfurt next time they go to Europe.

Lounge access starts at 35K. Star Gold is at 50K.

https://www.aircanada.com/ca/en/aco/home/aeroplan/status/benefits.html

35K: 35 000 miles or 35 flight segments and $4000 qualifying spending.

50K: 50 000 miles or 50 flight segments and $6000 qualifying spending

https://www.aircanada.com/ca/en/aco/home/aeroplan/status/qualification.html#/

For context. YOW-SFO is 2440 miles. YOW-LHR is 3320 miles.

It really depends on what kind of fare category their company is booking them. If they are booked on Economy Standard? It'll take 14.5 roundtrips YOW-SFO to get to 35K. If they were flying Premium Economy or Business, it's less than 6 roundtrips. That's basically a worker bee flying to SFO every 3.5 weeks. Or a manager flying down to every 2 months. And none of this includes any overseas flights.

Can Porter steal from this crowd? Maybe. But I suspect it's a taller hill to climb than many here imagine. Porter would have to cover a massive chunk of the flights these people take, and at very competitive fares to get them to switch. And fares are going to be the only leverage Porter has (which sucks for their profitability). The benefits on Porter are going to be limited. No possibility of substantial upgrades. Compared to AC offering lie-flat beds on 787s and 777s flying YYZ-SFO. Not much flight selection and flexibility, compared to the choices at SFO with United and AC. And of course no global alliance status with global privileges (which is more than lounges, including baggage, boarding, priority screening, etc).

And of course, the real fun starts when AC and United respond to Porter. SFO is a United hub. Nothing stopping them from launching service to YOW to compete. Especially if their Joint Venture with Air Canada gets approved by Transport Canada and US DOT. Makes it legal for them to even dump on the routes that Porter has to compete on. All while making United and AC even more attractive to each others customers.

This is why I say we're about to find out how serious businesses are about supporting services to YOW. The Public Service can't play favourites. Only the private sector can. Some of them are going to have to incentivize or even force employees to switch to help Porter establish a foothold.

[Stacmon]

In my experience engaging in work travel, it was very hard to get status travelling within Canada, even when I spent a period going to every province except New Brunswick at one point. By contrast, there was a time when I was travelling to East and Southeast Asia frequently and because the distances were so long, plus there was a bonus applied to the miles earned for travelling in business class, it only took a relatively small number of those trips to get me to 100k Super Elite status. The stars really aligned that year, I can't imagine ever getting 50k/Star Alliance Gold now that I no longer travel for work, let alone something that high.

Shorter flights to Vancouver, California or even the UK/Europe would require very frequent trips, especially without the multiplier in Business class if flying economy (and even less if flying a lower fare class). All of that makes me feel that if someone realizes they have next to no hope of getting a particular tier of airline program status that they will feel less loyal to the larger, more established airlines like Air Canada and may be much more willing to embrace alternatives that seem reasonable like an expanded Porter (as opposed to an ultra low cost airline which they may want to really avoid especially for work travel).

[phil235]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

There's no law against dumping domestically. Anti-dumping laws only apply to foreign competition. Emirates can't sell seats to Dubai at a loss. But it's perfectly legal for AC to sell every seat out of Ottawa at a loss in an effort to drive Porter out of business. That's why it's up to travelers to actively choose Porter.

Actually, where the airline has a dominant position and prices below cost to s
deliberately drive someone out of business, it would be a violation of the Competition Act. The Competition Bureau has taken on airlines for that kind of behaviour before:

https://www.blg.com/en/insights/2018/12/...ng-investigation-of-westjet-airlines-ltd

[YOWflier]

Lounge access is not really the biggest benefit of status. Lounges on this side of the planet have been greatly devalued overall (some exceptions) and are often packed anyway. And on YOW-TB the point is moot because there is no lounge. No YOW-based biz traveller in their right mind would forego a nonstop to a TB destination like SFO and instead choose to connect specifically for this benefit.

The real benefits of status are priority checkin/seat selection/boarding/baggage handling, cabin upgrades, and priority customer service/IRROPS handling. These are all things Porter can compete with very effectively.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by phil235

Actually, where the airline has a dominant position and prices below cost to s
deliberately drive someone out of business, it would be a violation of the Competition Act. The Competition Bureau has taken on airlines for that kind of behaviour before:

https://www.blg.com/en/insights/2018/12/...ng-investigation-of-westjet-airlines-ltd

Oh cool. They'll actually did something before an airline went out of business...

That said, in this particularly case, good luck, proving dumping across a joint venture that is moving pax across multiple connection points to multiple destinations. I'm also going to assume that AC and United are smart enough to just toe the line , not jump across it, as stupidly as WestJet did.

Also, they have ways of competing beyond just straight retail price competition. They can approach major employers and sign supply agreements. They can reduce the differential between fare classes to retain frequent flyers. Going from Economy Standard to Economy Flex fares doubles the mileage inclusion rate from 50% to 100%. What do you think would happen if Economy Flex was priced just $20 more on YOW-SFO? It's not dumping. But it sure would do a lot to keep frequent flyers.

Mostly I'm skeptical of the idea that AC is just going to lie back and let Porter grab a large chunk of its frequent flyers. But Porter definitely has a better shot at YOW than it would anywhere else, so I guess is that's the only hand they have, gotta play it. Let's hope, this doesn't mean that in 5 years AC has a new hangar and lounge at YOW paid for by somebody else.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by FlyYOW

The real benefits of status are priority checkin/seat selection/boarding/baggage handling, cabin upgrades, and priority customer service/IRROPS handling.

I mentioned this above.

Originally Posted by FlyYOW

These are all things Porter can compete with very effectively.

A carrier with an alliance partner is going to be able to offer much more of the above.

If a Porter bird goes tech at SFO, are they going to buy you a ticket on another airline? Because if an AC bird does the same, good chance if you have status they'll book you on UA. And AC has the ability to also fly down another aircraft from any of its hubs within hours.

There's a reason the Joint Ventures require antitrust immunity. They are massively advantageous.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Stacmon

I All of that makes me feel that if someone realizes they have next to no hope of getting a particular tier of airline program status that they will feel less loyal to the larger, more established airlines like Air Canada and may be much more willing to embrace alternatives that seem reasonable like an expanded Porter (as opposed to an ultra low cost airline which they may want to really avoid especially for work travel).

I agree with this. As someone who doesn't care for Star Alliance this is how I look at it too. But this very much depends on one's travel patterns. If all you do is fly to SFO every month, Porter may look attractive. If instead you fly to Berlin every second month, AC/UA (we really should start taking about the JVs as single carriers) may look more attractive.

What Porter really needs is partnerships with other carriers. Emirates working with JetBlue and Alaska Airways are good examples. I'd love to see Porter work out something like that. They have Interline agreements with a pile of airlines at Newark and Dulles. But these are kinda weak. They need codesharing and status partnerships.

[YOWflier]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

If a Porter bird goes tech at SFO, are they going to buy you a ticket on another airline? Because if an AC bird does the same, good chance if you have status they'll book you on UA. And AC has the ability to also fly down another aircraft from any of its hubs within hours.

There's a reason the Joint Ventures require antitrust immunity. They are massively advantageous.

The main advantage is fiscal (cost and revenue sharing) rather than operational.

Operational advantages are theoretical but don’t occur all that often in practice. At least in my experience. Years of Star Gold (UA Premier Gold) pre COVID and many instances of IRROPS…never once been handed off to a partner because the carrier always prefers to keep you on its metal.

The rest of your points are operational aspects that only Porter knows the details of. They’re not an ULCC so they will surely operate with more slack in their schedules than a Flair. Spares? Maybe not initially, but of course as the operation grows.

You talk about waiting to see if the business travel community will be willing to give up the “perks” of Alliance status and support Porter. Well one such person is talking to you right now; and I wouldn’t bat an eye. Let’s not forget Porter has its own program and time will tell what partnerships they forge as they grow up.

[Truenorth00]

^ I hope you're right. I'm a little more cynical after years of watching the duopoly just crush emerging competition and watching governments sign off on anti competitive JVs without batting an eye.

I'm also skeptical that people really are as motivated as they say, especially those with perks. It's easy to say what someone might give up in theory. But will they pull the trigger when the time comes?

I agree that it's easier if Porter is offering non-stops to places that AC/UA and WS/DL don't serve from YOW. But a lot of their destinations are going to overlap with AC and WS. And those carriers will often have more options and more perks for FFs.

Also, it's funny you never got handed off. My one year of Star Gold (that too with Aegean) and they booked me with a non-Star carrier when it became apparent, I might have to overnight at ORD after they cancelled my connection. This was after already getting rerouted to ORD instead of IAD at check-in.

[YOWflier]

My travel is mostly to the US. YOW-TB is a poor context for exercising one’s benefits because of no lounge, often small regional a/c with no biz class, and limited nonstops. These travellers are probably much less likely to cling to their alliance because they get fairly poor usage of their benefits. Not to mention that pre-COVID UA changed its Premier status qualification rules to subject Canadian residents to US dollar spend requirements (previously exempt). That alone probably tanked a bunch of status seekers here.

I’m more concerned about the frequent Eurasian travellers switching over. This is why a Porter hub here needs a European partner carrier to try and entice them over. Without one they have no reason to move over.

You’re cynical for good reasons but this situation is a unique opportunity for Porter and YOW because COVID crushed everyone and even the legacies are still rebuilding. Tougher to be a predator when you’re busy rebuilding your house. But that window is closing quickly.

[Dominion301]

Today’s departure count: 67

Today’s cancellation count (so far): 0

YTZ is back tomorrow on AC. So it turns out AC have cut YTZ on weekends and holidays only. However, it's back only 1x ops X67 until the end of the month. It's then 3x on Sept 1 & 2 and then back to 4x daily after Labour Day.

Not surprisingly after the next 3 days flights are empty and next Monday is currently showing as completely empty.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Today’s departure count: 67

Today’s cancellation count (so far): 0

YTZ is back tomorrow on AC. So it turns out AC have cut YTZ on weekends and holidays only. However, it's back only 1x ops X67 until the end of the month. It's then 3x on Sept 1 & 2 and then back to 4x daily after Labour Day.

Not surprisingly after the next 3 days flights are empty and next Monday is currently showing as completely empty.

I used Porter last week to YTZ then Chicago Midway. All flights going to and coming from were full and I was super happy to see it considering how many flights per day Porter operates from YOW. Happy to see people using Porter.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by FlyYOW

My travel is mostly to the US. YOW-TB is a poor context for exercising one’s benefits because of no lounge, often small regional a/c with no biz class, and limited nonstops. These travellers are probably much less likely to cling to their alliance because they get fairly poor usage of their benefits. Not to mention that pre-COVID UA changed its Premier status qualification rules to subject Canadian residents to US dollar spend requirements (previously exempt). That alone probably tanked a bunch of status seekers here.

I agree that they have a shot at capturing some TB traffic. But AC/UA have the ability to respond. Nothing stopping AC from building a YOW TB ML Lounge. And nothing stopping AC/UA from making a coordinated push to increase services to YOW to keep the pressure on Porter. This competition is good for YOW consumers in the short term. I just worry about the long term.

Originally Posted by FlyYOW

I’m more concerned about the frequent Eurasian travellers switching over. This is why a Porter hub here needs a European partner carrier to try and entice them over. Without one they have no reason to move over.

The only candidates are the non-aligned carriers and IAG for Europe. It's why I pine for Aer Lingus and their 321LRs to make it here. DUB would be a way better hub for us than YYZ or YUL. I wish Porter would deepen its relationship with JetBlue and follow a similar partnership model. JetBlue is pretty Oneworld heavy and close to Emirates.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I agree that they have a shot at capturing some TB traffic. But AC/UA have the ability to respond. Nothing stopping AC from building a YOW TB ML Lounge. And nothing stopping AC/UA from making a coordinated push to increase services to YOW to keep the pressure on Porter. This competition is good for YOW consumers in the short term. I just worry about the long term.

The only candidates are the non-aligned carriers and IAG for Europe. It's why I pine for Aer Lingus and their 321LRs to make it here. DUB would be a way better hub for us than YYZ or YUL. I wish Porter would deepen its relationship with JetBlue and follow a similar partnership model. JetBlue is pretty Oneworld heavy and close to Emirates.

Do you think AC would increase direct options from YOW in response to Porter? Could you imagine if their strategy would be to increase YOW direct options, drive out Porter, then take back those options after Porter is out. This is what AA did to Iceland Air and WOW air from Dallas. I will riot lol.

Air France would be more of a dream than Aer Lingus. AF has all the options from CDG that I personally would use. It's a bigger hub than Dublin so I'm sure I'm not the only one. Didn't AF say pre-pandemic that YOW was a desired destination?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

Do you think AC would increase direct options from YOW in response to Porter? Could you imagine if their strategy would be to increase YOW direct options, drive out Porter, then take back those options after Porter is out. This is what AA did to Iceland Air and WOW air from Dallas. I will riot lol.

I struggle to see why AC/UA would not do this. If after a while of this, Porter doesn't fold, they'll concede a bit.

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

Air France would be more of a dream than Aer Lingus. AF has all the options from CDG that I personally would use. It's a bigger hub than Dublin so I'm sure I'm not the only one. Didn't AF say pre-pandemic that YOW was a desired destination?

Air France is tied to WestJet. And WestJet has been getting steadily closer to SkyTeam (of which Delta, Air France, KLM and Virgin are the Atlantic anchors) Pre-Covid, WestJet and Delta proposed a Joint Venture just like what United Airlines and Air Canada are proposing now. So if Air France is coming to YOW, it's unlikely that they will partner with Porter.

On the other hand, Aer Lingus are owned by the International Airlines Group, the parent company of British Airways and Iberia. And since they are part of Oneworld, they are rivals to both Star Alliance (with AC) and SkyTeam (with WS partners). They already interline with Porter. A codeshare deal is much more likely. BA from Heathrow would be best. But Aer Lingus from Dublin is better in my opinion than AF from CDG and or LH from FRA. Will break the duopoly in Ottawa.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I struggle to see why AC/UA would not do this. If after a while of this, Porter doesn't fold, they'll concede a bit.



Air France is tied to WestJet. And WestJet has been getting steadily closer to SkyTeam (of which Delta, Air France, KLM and Virgin are the Atlantic anchors) Pre-Covid, WestJet and Delta proposed a Joint Venture just like what United Airlines and Air Canada are proposing now. So if Air France is coming to YOW, it's unlikely that they will partner with Porter.

On the other hand, Aer Lingus are owned by the International Airlines Group, the parent company of British Airways and Iberia. And since they are part of Oneworld, they are rivals to both Star Alliance (with AC) and SkyTeam (with WS partners). They already interline with Porter. A codeshare deal is much more likely. BA from Heathrow would be best. But Aer Lingus from Dublin is better in my opinion than AF from CDG and or LH from FRA. Will break the duopoly in Ottawa.

I would love it if BA came to YOW. But would YOW have the guts to allow it with the fear of retaliation from AC? No idea. For some reason if AC was told "You didn't resume LHR fast enough", it would trigger them to do something negative in YOW. I feel like in airports like YOW, the airline has the upper hand, in other airports like YYZ, the airport has the upper hand.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

I would love it if BA came to YOW. But would YOW have the guts to allow it with the fear of retaliation from AC? No idea. For some reason if AC was told "You didn't resume LHR fast enough", it would trigger them to do something negative in YOW. I feel like in airports like YOW, the airline has the upper hand, in other airports like YYZ, the airport has the upper hand.

Unless YOW caused AC to lose major $ (which I don't think it can), you scenario seems farfetched.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Unless YOW caused AC to lose major $ (which I don't think it can), you scenario seems farfetched.

What's farfetched? Poor relations between an airline/airport resulting in either decreasing their business relationship? In an email YOW sent me over a question I had, they said maintaining good relations between the two is important when it comes to service out of the airport and I'm no business expert but kicking AC out of their LHR slot doesn't seem to me like they will take it lightly.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

....I'm no business expert but kicking AC out of their LHR slot doesn't seem to me like they will take it lightly.

How exactly would YOW be able to kick AC out of their LHR slot? What are you talking about?