Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport (YOW/CYOW) 1.0

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

I don't think airlines are clueless, but they don't consider every tiny detail.

You must not know any data scientists. I assure you the airlines have rather sophisticated demand and yield models. They know way more than you'd imagine. It's a massively competitive and capital intensive industry. They wouldn't survive long if they were just ho-hum about market development.

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

Many routes between destinations exist because airports convince them and help them see why the route would be viable. They have the numbers, but that's all they have.

In most cases, airports often give massive discounts to airlines to start up. Sometimes even subsidizing startup costs. YOW is free to try that strategy. Though if this ends up raising costs for the rests, then you create a different problem....

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You must not know any data scientists. I assure you the airlines have rather sophisticated demand and yield models. They know way more than you'd imagine. It's a massively competitive and capital intensive industry. They wouldn't survive long if they were just ho-hum about market development.



In most cases, airports often give massive discounts to airlines to start up. Sometimes even subsidizing startup costs. YOW is free to try that strategy. Though if this ends up raising costs for the rests, then you create a different problem....

Totally get what you're saying but this statement contradicts yours in a way: "Lefevre told the audience most decisions to add or cut direct flights come down to sheer economics: if a route isn’t profitable, it won’t fly. If Ottawa’s business leaders can demonstrate there’s enough demand for, say, a direct YOW-Paris flight by showing how much local traffic is funnelled through hubs such as Montreal and Toronto, it would consider adding such a route, he said.

“Give us data,” Lefevre said. “We are really data-driven.”

From this article: https://www.obj.ca/article/lack-direct-a...wa-economic-growth-aviation-summit-hears

If they know everything they need to know, then what exactly are airlines asking for here?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

If they know everything they need to know, then what exactly are airlines asking for here?

He is asking Ottawa businesses to put up or shut up. That's what he's doing. He's just more polite than me.

He's telling Ottawa businesses that he doesn't see the demand in his data. They can either prove him wrong or they can pledge a certain demand level, something major employers do in some places to guarantee connectivity.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

He is asking Ottawa businesses to put up or shut up. That's what he's doing. He's just more polite than me.

He's telling Ottawa businesses that he doesn't see the demand in his data. They can either prove him wrong or they can pledge a certain demand level, something major employers do in some places to guarantee connectivity.

I found this quote pretty interesting too:

“When people hop in a car and drive to Montreal, that works against us because it does not show up as a point of sale in Ottawa,” said Tkach, the airport’s vice-president of business development and marketing.

Speer acknowledged the issue is a challenge for the airport, adding Ottawa is in a “chicken-and-egg” dilemma. While YOW needs to generate more passenger traffic to justify more direct air routes, the lack of direct flights to Ottawa is also stunting business growth that could help it reach those targets, she said."

I wonder if Porter's future possible new routes that YOW does not have would generate that demand.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

5.1M is kinda unremarkable for a metro of 1.4M.
Even for a non-hub. And while Ottawa isn't a hub, it's a focus city for three carriers right now. While Montreal undoubtedly steals some long haul, Ottawa should be doing better on domestic and transborder than it does.

An analogous situation here is Baltimore. Dulles is half the distance to Baltimore than Dorval to Ottawa. Pre-Covid BWI was handling 27M pax for a metro of 2.8M. BWI generates 2.6x the number of passengers per capita that YOW does despite having a large hub (Dulles) and major regional airport (Reagan National) less than 100km away.

I don’t think that this per capita comparison holds up. BWI draws from a much bigger area than Baltimore. The Baltimore-Washington area is 9 or 10 million people, and the airport also draws from Philadelphia and everything in between.

It also is (or was until this year) eastern hub for Southwest Airlines.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

I wonder if Porter's future possible new routes that YOW does not have would generate that demand.

The realistic range of what Porter's E195-E2:



Anything in this range could work. The good news is that with a 130 seats, the threshold to close a business case won't be as high.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by phil235

I don’t think that this per capita comparison holds up. BWI draws from a much bigger area than Baltimore. The Baltimore-Washington area is 9 or 10 million people, and the airport also draws from Philadelphia and everything in between.

Add up traffic at all the airports in the area. And do the same per capita result for the entire extended MSA population. It's still going to be substantially higher than the ratio for YOW.

Originally Posted by phil235

It also is (or was until this year) eastern hub for Southwest Airlines.

Southwest doesn't have hubs in the traditional sense. They have operating bases from where their aircraft operate and are maintained. But Southwest is heavily focused on origin-destination traffic. They will startup direct service wherever they find demand. Even if it's not touching an operating base on either end. Their reputation comes from that heavy focus on point-to-point service. Post-Covid they are slowly building up hubs. But even here, a massive number of Southwest passengers still fly non-stop:

Southwest Airlines billed itself as a carrier that flies mostly point-to-point service over a hub-and-spoke network in its annual filing. However, 2020 threw out almost every airline's playbook as they retrenched to a mostly hub-and-spoke strategy. Southwest Airlines also decided to follow a similar playbook.

For example, in 2019, 77% of Southwest's passengers flew a nonstop itinerary. In 2020, that number went down to 72% as the carrier cut some routes and turned to offer more connections in a bid to keep more of its planes full.

It's unlikely that most of BWI's Southwest numbers are transfers. Heck, BWI had over 10M pax before Southwest even showed up in the 90s.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

Right? Let's do a hypothetical scenario. Someone from Ottawa is looking for a ticket to SFO. It's $400 round trip from YUL but $600 from YOW (probably won't be that big of a difference, but I'm being pessimistic to make a point). If you are using your own car to drive to YUL, there's the difference right there just for parking. Actually, even more to park there. If you are using a bus, sure it might be $50 let's say round trip in the bus, which closes the gap to $150. Now factor in waiting for the bus, the 4 hour extra travel time to get to YUL and back to YOW (in total), and going through a busy airport with long lines. For me, and I can't speak for everyone, I would pay that extra $150 for that smoother and more relaxed experience.

What really kills Porter is the Ottawa-YYZ-SFO for $350 fare Air Canada will have every two weeks if Porter tries it. Probably at $380 they get takers. The one consolation is with chaos at Pearson they could probably command a premium and even steal people connecting from points east who want to avoid it.

[Truenorth00]

^ Cost is not the only consideration. Shortest one stop trip, for YOW-YYZ-SFO is 7:40 hrs. Most of them are 8+ hrs. Shortest YUL-SFO is 6:09 hrs. So YUL avoids a transfer at Pearson, for not much in additional total travel time.

Pricing is a whole other matter. Though, like I've said price is unlikely to matter much for trips like this. I don't think anybody is driving to Montreal to save money on trips like this.

[GeoNerd]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

^ Cost is not the only consideration. Shortest one stop trip, for YOW-YYZ-SFO is 7:40 hrs. Most of them are 8+ hrs. Shortest YUL-SFO is 6:09 hrs. So YUL avoids a transfer at Pearson, for not much in additional total travel time.

Pricing is a whole other matter. Though, like I've said price is unlikely to matter much for trips like this. I don't think anybody is driving to Montreal to save money on trips like this.

Do not underestimate how cheap people are. Drivers will lineup down the street to save $0.10 per litre. Don't kid yourself, tons of people are travelling to YUL just to save nominal amounts on these flights.

[originalmuffins]

Still very excited to see Porter use Ottawa as a hub. Hopefully by the time that starts happening, Ottawa has a bit of an identity shift and the airport improvements with YOW+ are finalized with a plan for YOW+ 2.0 being strategized after Porter's shift. Lots to be excited about with the airport. Would be cool if in a decade and HFR is booting up and having that connection with LRT in a stage 4? Who knows but fun to speculate.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by GeoNerd

Do not underestimate how cheap people are. Drivers will lineup down the street to save $0.10 per litre. Don't kid yourself, tons of people are travelling to YUL just to save nominal amounts on these flights.

If this were actually true, then Porter is in trouble , because those people would drive anyway or they'll keep flying with Air Canada and WestJet at they undercut prices. I don't think it's true though. So Porter will be just fine. They'll charge Air Canada fares. But give more direct options.

[GeoNerd]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

If this were actually true, then Porter is in trouble , because those people would drive anyway or they'll keep flying with Air Canada and WestJet at they undercut prices. I don't think it's true though. So Porter will be just fine. They'll charge Air Canada fares. But give more direct options.

You're not grasping what others are saying here. You're comparing direct Porter flights to driving to YUL.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by GeoNerd

You're not grasping what others are saying here. You're comparing direct Porter flights to driving to YUL.

It's not that I'm not grasping it. I just don't buy it. There's no evidence for it. We know people drive to YUL to take flights. But nobody (including YOW management) says that this applies across all price differentials and travel categories. Those are conclusions that people are jumping to on this thread. And if any of the hasty assumptions on this thread were actually true, Porter's business case for YOW could be in trouble.

[Dominion301]

Today’s departure count: 59

Today’s cancellation count (so far): 2

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by originalmuffins

Still very excited to see Porter use Ottawa as a hub. Hopefully by the time that starts happening, Ottawa has a bit of an identity shift and the airport improvements with YOW+ are finalized with a plan for YOW+ 2.0 being strategized after Porter's shift. Lots to be excited about with the airport. Would be cool if in a decade and HFR is booting up and having that connection with LRT in a stage 4? Who knows but fun to speculate.

I too am very excited for what Porter has to bring. Even if a connecting AC to SFO is $350 and Porter direct is $600 (which it probably won't be that big of a difference) I'm going with Porter. Personally, I love to support Porter for having a vision in YOW and I just don't like to connect so I take direct anytime I have the opportunity. I know not everyone thinks like this but I also can't be the only one. The only exception to this is when I used Porter and connected to Chicago last week. I could have used United but the ticket price for those days was over $1000 round trip. I still supported Porter but I didn't follow through on my direct rule. The price was just TOO ridiculous for direct.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

I too am very excited for what Porter has to bring. Even if a connecting AC to SFO is $350 and Porter direct is $600 (which it probably won't be that big of a difference)

You should actually expect that kind of price difference initially. Air Canada is definitely going to try to kill them. AC has a habit of doing that. It's why Porter worked on a virtual monopoly at the Island. To prevent AC from doing what it has done before.

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

I'm going with Porter. Personally, I love to support Porter for having a vision in YOW and I just don't like to connect so I take direct anytime I have the opportunity. I know not everyone thinks like this but I also can't be the only one.

I'm looking forward to more direct service with Porter. However, it's not the occasional travelers that Porter needs. They need business travelers:



A good chunk of those will be public servants and tech workers who have status on other carriers. We're about to find out how much flyers in Ottawa care for their status (and the perks with those) compared to more direct services.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You should actually expect that kind of price difference initially. Air Canada is definitely going to try to kill them. AC has a habit of doing that. It's why Porter worked on a virtual monopoly at the Island. To prevent AC from doing what it has done before.

I'm looking forward to more direct service with Porter. However, it's not the occasional travelers that Porter needs. They need business travelers:

A good chunk of those will be public servants and tech workers who have status on other carriers. We're about to find out how much flyers in Ottawa care for their status (and the perks with those) compared to more direct services.

Let's hope businesses choose Porter! In that article I sent a couple days ago, business leaders here are having a hard time recruiting outside workers because of the lack of direct options. Maybe Porter can help?

Also, isn't there some sort of competition law to prevent AC from doing this? For example, if a small grocery store opens next to a big chain one and the big chain one drops their prices to a point where they lose profits solely for the purpose of taking out the smaller one, they can be in legal trouble. I wonder if this is the case here as well if AC does that?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

Let's hope businesses choose Porter! In that article I sent a couple days ago, business leaders here are having a hard time recruiting outside workers because of the lack of direct options. Maybe Porter can help?

Porter can help. But it's up to frequent flyers in Ottawa and businesses to support Porter. If they choose cheaper one stop fares and status on AC, it might not go so well. In some cases (like the Public Service) choosing the cheaper fare isn't optional. Airlines know this and program their booking engines accordingly. So we'll see how it goes.

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

Also, isn't there some sort of competition law to prevent AC from doing this? For example, if a small grocery store opens next to a big chain one and the big chain one drops their prices to a point where they lose profits solely for the purpose of taking out the smaller one, they can be in legal trouble. I wonder if this is the case here as well if AC does that?

There's no law against dumping domestically. Anti-dumping laws only apply to foreign competition. Emirates can't sell seats to Dubai at a loss. But it's perfectly legal for AC to sell every seat out of Ottawa at a loss in an effort to drive Porter out of business. That's why it's up to travelers to actively choose Porter.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You should actually expect that kind of price difference initially. Air Canada is definitely going to try to kill them. AC has a habit of doing that. It's why Porter worked on a virtual monopoly at the Island. To prevent AC from doing what it has done before.



I'm looking forward to more direct service with Porter. However, it's not the occasional travelers that Porter needs. They need business travelers:



A good chunk of those will be public servants and tech workers who have status on other carriers. We're about to find out how much flyers in Ottawa care for their status (and the perks with those) compared to more direct services.

You can be a very frequent flyer and with NA only flights status of any value will be very tough with current Air Canada rules. It has also been devalued to a great extent especially domestically. Someone who works for Meta or Google and goes to the Bay area frequently is very likely to switch for a direct flight even if it means not qualifying for the lounge in Frankfurt next time they go to Europe.