DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

Haha, I sincerely doubt there is much allegiance between Candi Cdebaca and a bunch of rich old white dudes in mansions of 17th ave parkway that don't want affordable housing built on Colfax.

Rich ironies of life?

In hindsight I wasn't paying attention or aware of the specific neighborhood areas for this meeting. Now that I see we're in the vicinity of Monaco ie Park Hill, Mayfair, I have a truer picture of those who were 'concerned'.

[Stonemans_rowJ]

it's not just rich people with second homes in Aspen, it's old(er) people in general, no offense Take5. I live in Mayfair and same here, mostly older folks, boomers, the kind that make stupid posts constantly on nextdoor. they are very concerned with their parking. probably the same people concerned with the mexicans taking all the jobs. the younger people who would benefit and be excited about these changes rent and therefore don't know what's going on, or really have a dog in the fight right now.

[PLANSIT]

Cirrus can elaborate a bit, but I'm pretty sure we are seeing an interesting alignment of wealthy NIMBY and anti-displacement/gentrification factions regarding density and development.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

it's not just rich people with second homes in Aspen, it's old(er) people in general, no offense Take5. I live in Mayfair and same here, mostly older folks, boomers, the kind that make stupid posts constantly on nextdoor. they are very concerned with their parking. probably the same people concerned with the mexicans taking all the jobs. the younger people who would benefit and be excited about these changes rent and therefore don't know what's going on, or really have a dog in the fight right now.

Even within my assisted living complex there's disagreement. It's why I go to extreme measure to stay relevant - like hanging out at places like this.

I have acknowledged that those invested in their neighborhood are more likely to be long-timers and old-timers. But context is always a key. The East Colfax (transit) corridor is exactly where increased density should be allowed.

In a lot of cases people just want/need to express their two cents. It's a valuable part of the process. If a valid case is made for needed change and once done, most of these people merely sigh and move on to watching the Rockies, Broncos etc which is more important anyway.

Originally Posted by PLANSIT

Cirrus can elaborate a bit, but I'm pretty sure we are seeing an interesting alignment of wealthy NIMBY and anti-displacement/gentrification factions regarding density and development.

As they say: "Politics makes strange bedfellows."

Consider the disparate interests that opposed Central 70. The transit proposal in Nashville combined anti-tax conservatives with anti-gentrification minorities. So I would agree this kind risk can happen.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Phase 3 is U/C right now- foundations are going in.

Ha noticed that today when I drove by. Looks like there are two additional phases after Phase 4 on either side of 28th St that will get extended from Delgany to Arkins Ct.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

What do you guys think is Denver's signature skyscraper? The cash register building? Are you content with it staying that way for a while?

While this boom-cycle has brought new/developed neighborhoods (Union Station/RiNo), towns like Austin seem to be growing much more vertically with much more interesting looking towers. Just look at this one that is under construction in Austin

[BG918]

^ 1144 15th is a beautiful tower, wish it had been about 200 ft taller. A few more glassy towers would definitely modernize the skyline. I would've imagined we would see more condo and apartment towers but the recent boom has been more low-rise in nature.

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by BG918

^ 1144 15th is a beautiful tower, wish it had been about 200 ft taller. A few more glassy towers would definitely modernize the skyline. I would've imagined we would see more condo and apartment towers but the recent boom has been more low-rise in nature.

Denver has been blessed/cursed with so much prime "empty" land close to downtown (Union Station/Rino) and so close to the new transportation corridors that most of our development has focused there - with all of its height restrictions.

Only three real high rises this cycle is disappointing.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

It would have been a cool to have a few more skyscrapers but my hope is that all of the transit-oriented development creates a much more connected and urban feel in Denver. TOD seems to have been the hallmark of this cycle. It seems like stadium district infill is going to preoccupy a lot of development over the next ten years whether that be near Coors field/Arapahoe Square, River Mile, or near Sports Authority Field at Mile High.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

What do you guys think is Denver's signature skyscraper? The cash register building? Are you content with it staying that way for a while?

While this boom-cycle has brought new/developed neighborhoods (Union Station/RiNo), towns like Austin seem to be growing much more vertically with much more interesting looking towers. Just look at this one that is under construction in Austin

That's going to be a nice building. Austin has had the advantage of attracting more 'A' list tech companies.

https://austin.curbed.com/2019/4/2/18291500/google-building-austin-new-design-pelli

For architecture fans, it was worth the wait. The currently unnamed building is designed by internationally renowned firm Pelli Clarke Pelli, fresh off the completion of a building for another tech giant, Salesforce Tower, which is now the tallest building in San Francisco.

A building-height, curved glass wall and tapered structure allows outdoor terraces on every level, creating the overall effect (as many have noted) of a sail eternally catching a breeze from the lake across the street.

Block 185 will be 35 stories with 793,883 square feet of office space. This building recently broke ground and Google has committed to lease the whole building which is right next door to the 29-story 'Google Tower.'

Austin hasn't had the issues building condos that Denver experienced. The Independent has 58 stories (690 ft) and The Austonian 56 stories (683 ft).

Originally Posted by BG918

^ 1144 15th is a beautiful tower, wish it had been about 200 ft taller. A few more glassy towers would definitely modernize the skyline. I would've imagined we would see more condo and apartment towers but the recent boom has been more low-rise in nature.

Definitely agree; 1144 15th is very elegant. I'd also agree Hines missed by not going at least 10-15 stories higher.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Definitely agree; 1144 15th is very elegant. I'd also agree Hines missed by not going at least 10-15 stories higher.

In addition, it would have been great on another lot that isn't shared with another +600ft building. 1144 would have been great with another 100 feet and located at 650 17th or something.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/08/09/colorado-business-growth-slows/

DP article about slowing business growth in Colorado. Apparently, building permits are down 11.3 percent over the past 12 months.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

DP article about slowing business growth in Colorado. Apparently, building permits are down 11.3 percent over the past 12 months.

Denver is likely to be underwater by this time next year.
Literally or figuratively?
Both!

[SnyderBock]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Denver is likely to be underwater by this time next year.
Literally or figuratively?
Both!

While the market for office space nay dry up for a few years, until the next cycle, there is still a huge pent up demand for condos. This demand is not being fulfilled and at some point the market will turn to supplying that demand.

[Tykendo]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Denver is likely to be underwater by this time next year.
Literally or figuratively?
Both!

Been watching too much Waterworld? Denver will be fine for decades to come. The downer is infrastructure being able to handle the surge that will continue to come.

[twister244]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Denver is likely to be underwater by this time next year.
Literally or figuratively?
Both!

Denver will be just fine.

[TakeFive]

Hmmm


Source: Know your meme

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Tykendo

The downer is infrastructure being able to handle the surge that will continue to come.

There are a number of helpful projects that come to mind and are funded.

• Central 70 will be very nice once it's done.
• Widening 56th Ave from Peoria to Pena will help those folks.
• There's some nice upgrades along Hampden in the vicinity of Yosemite.
• Reconstruction of Washington St in Globeville looks to be impressive
• Reconstruction along Morrison Rd should be very nice for that community
• Reconstruction and realignment of 13th Ave/Holden Place looks like a blue ribbon project for ascendant Sun Valley.

Rockies finally win a game.

[rds70]

Looks like Greystar will be buying and constructing another project with an already approved site plan. They did the same thing with 1800 Market:

https://businessden.com/2019/08/12/arapa...plans-for-13-story-project-sells-for-9m/

Also, a building permit has been submitted for the 990 Park Avenue condominium project:

https://denverinfill.com/blog/2018/08/new-project-park-place-condominiums.html#iLightbox

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by rds70

Looks like Greystar will be buying and constructing another project with an already approved site plan. They did the same thing with 1800 Market:

https://businessden.com/2019/08/12/arapa...plans-for-13-story-project-sells-for-9m/

I recall (vaguely) reading about the original purchase but then nothing but crickets. Whether they had trouble getting financing, got cold feet, who knows but Greystar's got a good gig going.

I'll give props to SnyderBock as I agree with him that the one slice of the market that needs product is condos. It will be interesting to see if/when Park Place Condominiums breaks ground but I have to believe the market is there.

Interesting news out of the markets today.

The 30-year Treasury bond yield is on the brink of falling to an all-time low
Aug 12, 2019 By SUNNY OH - MarketWatch

The 30-year yield is only three basis points away from its all-time low set in July 2016, when it touched 2.10% after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. The rate for the so-called long bond had risen to a multiyear peak of 3.46% in November, but has steadily retreated since...

The 10-year T-Bill dropped down to 1.649% today; seems like it was 2.2% not that long ago. That's also a pretty healthy descent.

I also read recently where investors look to pencil a project with a cap rate of ~4.5%. That no longer seems crazy low like it would have a few years ago.