Apologies for the lack of updates on this thread. There have been a few events that have happened that boggle the mind. As you may recall, HS2 was broken into several phases, so let’s do a quick run-through as to what is happening and what has been cancelled/mothballed.
Image sourced from Department for Transport: https://assets.publishing.service.go...nement-web.pdf
Phase 1
Original Plan: This comprised a section from London Euston with stops at Old Oak Common (in west London) and then Birmingham Interchange, whereafter the line splits, with one branch going to Birmingham Curzon Street and the other branching north creating a second bypass line to the West Coast Main Line (WCML).
Current Plan: The section from Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street is well under construction, with a giant hole at London Euston. The question mark however is what form London Euston will take; the London terminus project has been badly mismanaged with costs rising from constant design changes and a bizarre take from the Treasury that all above station development shouldn’t count towards the project, despite the OSD being at fault for the constant design changes. Originally specified as an 11-platform terminus station, there is speculation that it will be built out with just 6-platforms which would permanently limit the scope to provide the original service pattern of up to 17tph even if all the original phases are built out.
Phase 2a
Original Plan: From Birmingham Interchange, the route heads north-west towards Crewe where the line would split.
Current Plan: Work has already commenced on this section with many bridges and redirection works have already commenced. As per the announcement by Rishi Sunak, this section has been cancelled. HS2 services heading north-west will instead rejoin the WCML and carry on their journey to Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow.
Phase 2b East
Original Plan: From Crewe, this section would have headed towards Manchester, splitting in two with one branch heading via a tunnel to Manchester Airport and then new adjacent platforms at Manchester Piccadilly. The other branch would head towards Wigan where it would rejoin the WCML onwards up to the north of England and Scotland
Current Plan: This was cancelled by Rishi Sunak, with some cruel irony at the Conservative Party Conference which was held in Manchester.
Phase 2b West
Original Plan: North of Birmingham Interchange, this would have been a new line heading up to Totton (in-between Derby and Nottingham), with a short loop branch via Sheffield, before branching up to a new station adjacent to the main Leeds station and a branch up to York and the Newcastle.
Current Plan: This was cancelled last year as costs started to rise.
Channel 4 News – HS2 Part-Cancellation
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Going Forward
HS2 is one of the few projects which had cross-party consensus with all previous Prime Ministers and multitudes of former cabinet ministers in support. In the original proposed form, 48tph would have operated across a network spanning 530km, with 400m long trains travelling at 360kph. The capacity relief would have been transformational, particularly for the WCML, the East Coast Main Line (ECML) and Midland Main Line (MML); with each of these lines able to provide a massive increase in commuter, regional, rural and freight frequencies.
By March of this year, intercity travel had returned to 86% of pre-pandemic levels, despite strikes and Avanti West Coast (the largest intercity operator) struggling to provide a full service (amazingly due to unprecedented driver shortages) and is likely to rise above pre-pandemic volumes by the end of the calendar year. That makes the delivery of HS2 even more critical, as the absence of which will be severe congestion. Just in the last few days there have been reports of some trains refusing to depart until passengers get off because the services are so overcrowded.
As it stands, the only true benefit will be unlocked between London and Birmingham – the section which incurred the highest costs – whilst the lower cost sections to Leeds (which the highest returns) and Manchester (the second highest returns) have now been discarded. It is tantamount to economic sabotage and will make future works to provide nationwide capacity far more costly. An incredibly expensive expansion of the ECML will now need to be looked at, and the level of disruption far higher.
A general election is due to be held next year. The Tories who currently have a majority are likely to be wiped out, with Labour coming in on a massive 100+ seat majority which would give them a lot of control to enact their manifesto. Could they go back to building HS2 as originally intended? Not implausible, but the incoming Labour administration need to say something now to dispel any ideas of rapid land disposals. There are also question marks around the state of the economy and availability of funds, but as an infrastructure project which has nationwide productivity gains, borrowing shouldn’t be a problem. Another point to consider is that the biggest beneficiaries from HS2 would be Labour’s northern heartlands which are constrained by intercity traffic taking up existing tracks and platforms at key mainline stations. Furthermore, HS3 (or Northern Powerhouse) which would be a new high-speed line running from Liverpool to Leeds via Manchester would piggyback off HS2 Phase 2b East.
In a way, HS2 should really have been called
High Capacity Rail; high speed services being a perk, but the focus ought to have been on the capacity relief for existing mainline corridors for new commuter services across the country, displacing road freight and allowing for the removal of domestic short-haul flights.
HS2 Project Update – September 2023
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Work beings on HS2’s longest Green Tunnel
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Production of HS2 London tunnel segments
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Colne Valley Viaduct
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Chilterns Tunnel Progress
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London Tunnel Progress
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Copthall Green Tunnel
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