The US Census Bureau thread

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by subterranean

Can someone explain for my pea brain how weighted domestic outward migration differs from the US Census metric of net domestic migration (2020-2023) of New York losing 3,291 per 100,000?

They revise the old estimates with every new annual estimate. So basically all the estimates you saw for 2021-2023 have now been discarded.

I know, it's idiotic. We won't really know what's happening until 2030.

I don't understand how the most resourced nation in the history of humanity cannot do a better job with annual estimates. They're pathetic.

I also love how the annual estimates are taken as fact when they drive a certain narrative and are then conveniently ignored when the estimates no longer support that narrative.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

Poor Chicagoland newspapers probably had to alter their doomsday narratives at the last minute.

But everything else is still all awful.

Never forget it.

Because they won't let you.

[Crawford]

Now I bet the narrative is "Ok, Illinois (or any older, slow growth blue state) is growing but it's all open borders illegal alien rapists and murderers".

[Chisouthside]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Now I bet the narrative is "Ok, Illinois (or any older, slow growth blue state) is growing but it's all open borders illegal alien rapists and murderers".

youre not kidding
https://wirepoints.org/call-it-the-i...evious%20years.

[Steely Dan]

^ right on cue.

"This might seem like good news..........

But it's actually very, very, VERY bad news."

No matter what, stay terrified, America.




What a wonderful shithole society we've created for ourselves

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by IcedCowboyCoffee

Yes, according to these state numbers at least, New York state's population growth is hampered only by domestic outward migration. It estimates the state experienced outward domestic migration of -130k, offset by +200k in international migration and +40k more births than deaths. I'd expect some degree of reflection of this in the metro area's numbers as well.

Ranking of weighted domestic outward migration:

1. Hawaii: -645 per 100,000 people
2. New York: -609 per 100,000 people
3. California: -608 per 100,000 people
4. Alaska: -510 per 100,000 people
5. Illinois: -442 per 100,000 people
6. Massachusetts: -385 per 100,000 people
7. Louisiana: -379 per 100,000 people
8. New Jersey: -374 per 100,000 people
9. Maryland: -296 per 100,000 people
10. Mississippi: -168 per 100,000 people

New York has likely had net negative domestic migration since the Founding Fathers were still alive. It is a place where growth has always been dependent on immigration.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

(Typical grain of salt but)

Nice growth! California almost got back to its 2020 number, DC breaks 700k, New York state adds 130k

Probably alot of those people who moved during covid and are coming back.

I told people last year on here the social media "noise" of that happening was going to reflect in real numbers soon. And it has.
The noise of people being unhappy in Texas and Florida or Arizona has gotten really loud- tons of people saying they want to move back to CA.

I expect more this this trend the next few years. Covid trends are dead.

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Probably alot of those people who moved during covid and are coming back.

I told people last year on here the social media "noise" of that happening was going to reflect in real numbers soon. And it has.
The noise of people being unhappy in Texas and Florida or Arizona has gotten really loud- tons of people saying they want to move back to CA.

I expect more this this trend the next few years. Covid trends are dead.

For those states their growth is driven entirely by international migration and births, not people moving back. According to these numbers, net domestic migration for California was -239,575 and for New York it was -120,917. That gives them among the worst domestic migration rates in the country.

Texas, Florida, and Arizona still have strong positive net domestic migration numbers with +85,267 and +64,017 and +34,092 respectively.

So more existing U.S. residents are still moving out of California and New York than are moving in, and more people are moving in to Texas, Florida and Arizona than are moving out.
But international migration has helped ensure Cali and NY has experienced positive growth.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by IcedCowboyCoffee

For those states their growth is driven entirely by international migration and births, not people moving back. According to these numbers, net domestic migration for California was -239,575 and for New York it was -120,917. That gives them among the worst domestic migration rates in the country.

Texas, Florida, and Arizona still have strong positive net domestic migration numbers with +85,267 and +64,017 and +34,092 respectively.

So more existing U.S. residents are still moving out of California and New York than are moving in, and more people are moving in to Texas, Florida and Arizona than are moving out.
But international migration has helped ensure Cali and NY has experienced positive growth.

That doesn't mean people arent moving back. And it doesnt mean those 3 states aren't losing alot of people to CA either.
About 40-50K Texans move to CA per year. Many of those are who moved back.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by IcedCowboyCoffee

For those states their growth is driven entirely by international migration and births, not people moving back. According to these numbers, net domestic migration for California was -239,575 and for New York it was -120,917. That gives them among the worst domestic migration rates in the country.

Texas, Florida, and Arizona still have strong positive net domestic migration numbers with +85,267 and +64,017 and +34,092 respectively.

So more existing U.S. residents are still moving out of California and New York than are moving in, and more people are moving in to Texas, Florida and Arizona than are moving out.
But international migration has helped ensure Cali and NY has experienced positive growth.

That doesn't mean people arent moving back. And it doesnt mean those 3 states aren't losing alot of people to CA either.
About 40-50K Texans move to CA per year. Many of those are who moved back.
Another thing is, the number of CA moving to a place like FL wasnt that high to begin with.

[craigs]

According to this article, California saw a natural increase of 110,466 and a net migration increase of 121,482 between July 2023 and July 2024. That adds up to 231,948 additional Californians.

[LA21st]

The guy probably lives on fox news.

Hes prob angry at the suggestion that californians didnt like living in those places. Its been all over social media for 2 years and i expect the trend to continue.

[fleonzo]

Originally Posted by IcedCowboyCoffee

For those states their growth is driven entirely by international migration and births, not people moving back. According to these numbers, net domestic migration for California was -239,575 and for New York it was -120,917. That gives them among the worst domestic migration rates in the country.

Texas, Florida, and Arizona still have strong positive net domestic migration numbers with +85,267 and +64,017 and +34,092 respectively.

So more existing U.S. residents are still moving out of California and New York than are moving in, and more people are moving in to Texas, Florida and Arizona than are moving out.
But international migration has helped ensure Cali and NY has experienced positive growth.

Yeap, completely agree! Unless states like CA & NY start changing their internal issues....they'll start bleeding people again in the next four years as immigration policies will certainly become more restrictive. Amazing how they haven't made a course correction looking at what's coming down the pipeline!

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by fleonzo

Yeap, completely agree! Unless states like CA & NY start changing their internal issues....they'll start bleeding people again in the next four years as immigration policies will certainly become more restrictive. Amazing how they haven't made a course correction looking at what's coming down the pipeline!

CA and NY (really the NE corridor) are arguably the two most successful geographies in the history of humanity. They aren't going to "make a course correction" (read - become more like Alabama) bc of a temporary craze in the American electorate.

Immigration is the primary reason the U.S. is the most successful country on earth. The U.S. will remain the leading immigration magnet, long after the current crazy is thrown in history's trash bin. Ten years from now, I'm betting the U.S. will have far more immigration than today, and that will benefit the knowledge centers like CA and NY.

And the vast majority of outmigration is due to high home prices (read - desirability). It would be insane to try and make your state worse so you'd have less outmigration.

Also, if there is a mass immigrant pogrom, the states most affected will be those with the most recent illegal immigrants, and those states are TX and FL. Their economies will suffer the most. CA and NY, at least in recent years, don't get many immigrants from places where you could practically remove. Musk is very pro-immigrant, and seems to be the primary decision-maker rn. Musk and the corporate oligarchs aren't going to remove their workforce. There will be some photo-ops of roundups and that will be that.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Crawford

CA and NY (really the NE corridor) are arguably the two most successful geographies in the history of humanity. They aren't going to "make a course correction" (read - become more like Alabama) bc of a temporary craze in the American electorate.

Immigration is the primary reason the U.S. is the most successful country on earth. The U.S. will remain the leading immigration magnet, long after the current crazy is thrown in history's trash bin. Ten years from now, I'm betting the U.S. will have far more immigration than today, and that will benefit the knowledge centers like CA and NY..

Areas with high immigration have high domestic outmigration by definition.

An immigrant who moves from Europe to New York for work automatically becomes a domestic migrant when they retire to Florida several decades later.

I think it’s rather silly to brag excessively about having growing retirement populations, but California and New York are doing perfectly fine based on the natural increases.

Births outnumbered deaths (natural increase) in 33 states and the District of Columbia, with natural increase highest in Texas (158,753), California (110,466) and New York (43,701).

Seventeen states experienced more deaths than births, down from 19 states in 2023 and 25 states in 2022. Pennsylvania (-9,311), West Virginia (-7,844) and Florida (-7,321) were the states with the highest levels of natural decrease.

[galleyfox]

As for illegal immigrants, Northern states simply have fewer of them.

Also, logistically not so easy to locate and physically transport them even from Florida and Texas, unless Conservatives are under the misapprehension that the Federal Government just keeps thousands of planes and trains warehoused in a desert somewhere?

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Also, if there is a mass immigrant pogrom, the states most affected will be those with the most recent illegal immigrants, and those states are TX and FL. Their economies will suffer the most. CA and NY, at least in recent years, don't get many immigrants from places where you could practically remove. Musk is very pro-immigrant, and seems to be the primary decision-maker rn. Musk and the corporate oligarchs aren't going to remove their workforce. There will be some photo-ops of roundups and that will be that.

It's worth noting that Trump's border czar has promised the day one deportation sweep will start in Chicago.

Without getting too deep into actual politics, I 100% believe that enforcement will be politicized, with big blue cities/states seeing more actions. Plays well on Fox News, after all.

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

Originally Posted by LA21st

The guy probably lives on fox news.

Hes prob angry at the suggestion that californians didnt like living in those places. Its been all over social media for 2 years and i expect the trend to continue.

I copy and pasted the numbers directly from the census bureau's data sheet released yesterday:
https://www2.census.gov/programs-sur...2024-COMP.xlsx

International migration in California was +361,507.
Net Domestic migration in California was -239,575.

The combined net migration is simply the combination of those two numbers: +121,482--which is the value Craigs mentioned.

So, California still experienced outward domestic migration that was significantly larger than its inward domestic migration, but that loss was offset by the strong international migration to the state.
And combined with births exceeding deaths by 110,466, California experienced a positive growth of +232,570.

Similarly for New York:
International migration in New York was +207,161
Net Domestic migration in New York was -120,917
Combined net migration: +86,244

These differ from the other states mentioned which saw both positive domestic migration and large international migration.

International migration in Texas was +319,569
Net Domestic migration in Texas was +85,267
Combined net migration: +404,836

International migration in Florida was +411,322
Net Domestic migration in Florida was +64,017
Combined net migration: +475,339

International migration in Arizona was +64,486
Net Domestic migration in Arizona was +34,902
Combined net migration: +99,388


I'm not ascribing any value judgment to these numbers, but if there is an argument to be made that there is mass movement of US residents out of TX, FL, and AZ and in to CA and NY, this is not the data to use because such movement is not reflected in it anywhere. The strongest winners for domestic migration in this data would seem to be the Carolinas. South Carolina had a net domestic migration rate of +1,242 people per 100,000 which was the largest of any state.

Net domestic migration rates:
1. South Carolina: +1,242 people per 100,000
2. Idaho: +818 per 100,000
3. Delaware: +775 per 100,000
4. North Carolina: +745 per 100,000
5. Tennessee: +671 per 100,000
6. Nevada: +516 per 100,000
7. Alabama: +505 per 100,000
8. Montana: +476 per 100,000
9. Arizona: +460 per 100,000
10. Arkansas: +436 per 100,000
11. Maine: +379 per 100,000
12. New Hampshire: +347 per 100,000
13. Oklahoma: +343 per 100,000
14. Florida: +274 per 100,000
15. Texas: +273 per 100,000

Many of these states rank poorly in the overall rankings of cumulative population growth because of more modest international migration or because of the number of deaths exceeding births, or both. Many of them rank among the lowest international migration rates.

If we want to look at the highest international migration rates, DC sits above every state at the top with 1,780 new international migrants per 100,000, but here is the list of states:

1. Florida: +1,760 new international migrants per 100,000
2. New Jersey: +1,376 per 100,000
3. Massachusetts: +1,264 per 100,000
4. New York: +1,042 per 100,000
5. Washington: +1,025 per 100,000
6. Texas: +1,021 per 100,000
7. Nevada: +1,010 per 100,000
8. Connecticut: +985 per 100,000
9. Utah: +946 per 100,000
10. California: +916 per 100,000
11. Illinois: +889 per 100,000
12. Rhode Island: +856 per 100,000
13. Arizona: +850 per 100,000
14. Maryland: +848 per 100,000
15. Hawaii: +822 per 100,000

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by eschaton

It's worth noting that Trump's border czar has promised the day one deportation sweep will start in Chicago.

Without getting too deep into actual politics, I 100% believe that enforcement will be politicized, with big blue cities/states seeing more actions. Plays well on Fox News, after all.

I'm hoping we respond by impounding all ICE vehicles at lower lower Wacker for lack of a deportation permit.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by eschaton

It's worth noting that Trump's border czar has promised the day one deportation sweep will start in Chicago.

Without getting too deep into actual politics, I 100% believe that enforcement will be politicized, with big blue cities/states seeing more actions. Plays well on Fox News, after all.

The politicians can say what they want, but they are still bound by the laws of physics.

You have to actually hire people to locate and apprehend illegal immigrants, have a local government willing to corporate with information and support, pay for their housing and transportation, make agreements with countries to accept them…

The federal government can barely do a census properly in an entire year, just knocking on doors.