The US Census Bureau thread

[C.]

When will State population estimates be released?

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

Originally Posted by C.

When will State population estimates be released?

Likely someday this week. They've been released in the 19th~22nd range of December in the past three years.

[C.]

Originally Posted by IcedCowboyCoffee

Likely someday this week. They've been released in the 19th~22nd range of December in the past three years.

Thanks!

I know the estimates are taken with a grain of salt, but any predictions?

My guess is NY’s population has stabilized. Also, FL’s growth might slow due to the hurricanes and the resulting property insurance crisis. PR will also see population loss.

[mhays]

The estimates have their flaws and the counts have their flaws. It's not clear to me that the estimates are any worse.

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by C.

Thanks!

I know the estimates are taken with a grain of salt, but any predictions?

My guess is NY’s population has stabilized. Also, FL’s growth might slow due to the hurricanes and the resulting property insurance crisis. PR will also see population loss.

Can't wait to see the latest results. Hopefully things aren't as undercounted as they've been the last 2-3 years. The 2022 results were disastrous for a lot of places. Same with the July 2023 estimates. Utter garbage.

There's no way the New York–Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA lost almost 3 percent of the population. Utter rubbish. Maybe that's what the drones are for... to accurately count folks.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by chris08876

There's no way the New York–Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA lost almost 3 percent of the population. Utter rubbish. Maybe that's what the drones are for... to accurately count folks.

Yeah, seems absurd. That would put NY metro back into 1970s territory, when the region saw rapid abandonment in many urban neighborhoods. We're not seeing anything like that on the ground now. If anything, the urban development machine is as strong as it has been since the 1950s

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

Originally Posted by chris08876

Can't wait to see the latest results. Hopefully things aren't as undercounted as they've been the last 2-3 years. The 2022 results were disastrous for a lot of places. Same with the July 2023 estimates. Utter garbage.

There's no way the New York–Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA lost almost 3 percent of the population. Utter rubbish. Maybe that's what the drones are for... to accurately count folks.

I have no idea one way or the other what numbers to expect for that, but a place can have building cranes sprouting like weeds and still be experiencing a population shrinkage even if it doesn't feel like it.

I don't have the numbers on hand but I would not be surprised to find out that the median age for the NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA is higher than the national median age. As the massive boomer generation begins reaching the u.s. life expectancy (which its oldest members just did since it has been 78 years since the end of the war) older population areas will feel the effect of their gradual passing more acutely and sooner than other areas. It's sad to consider, but that seems to be the incoming demographic shift.
I do see that these states which make up the CSA have some of the highest median ages in the country.

Florida is a huge outlier for the obvious reason that it is Florida and its migration has been massive in recent history.

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

And just to illustrate the point a little bit with an overly simplified scenario:

Imagine a neighborhood. In every unit of housing in the neighborhood there lives an elderly couple, either together on their own or they are sharing a home with other family members.
One member from every elderly couple in the neighborhood could tragically pass away, and, while the population has shrunk as a result, every single unit of housing in the neighborhood still remains occupied. So, even though the population has shrunk considerably, new housing still needs to be built for whoever wants to move into the neighborhood.

I hope that didn't come across as callous in any way, I don't mean for it to, but I just wanted to illustrate the dynamic that could be at play when a population is shrinking but a building boom is still occurring. It's the difference between the deathrate being the driving factor behind a population shrinkage versus the outward migration rate being the driving factor, which it was in the 1970s.

Of course this dynamic is occurring everywhere at all times, but its effects would be more pronounced where populations are older than others.

[mhays]

There's undoubtedly some effect from all that. However a large percentage of older people live alone. That would suggest significant opportunity for younger people to move in when the old people die.

Shrinking households are often the culprit when places show surprising population decreases. Sometimes it's a local reflection of people having fewer kids at the societal level. Sometimes it's neighborhoods gentrifying and replacing a lot of six-person households with two-person households.

[ChiSoxRox]

Looks like estimates drop tomorrow morning:

News Release: Total Population and Components of Change Estimates for the Nation, States, and Puerto Rico; Voting-age Population Estimates for the Nation, States, and Puerto Rico Commonwealth

Thu Dec 19 2024 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM | US/Eastern

There's usually a 48 hour news embargo to let media write articles, but perhaps this close to the holidays they're just being posted.

[UrbanImpact]

Originally Posted by chris08876

There's no way the New York–Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA lost almost 3 percent of the population. Utter rubbish. Maybe that's what the drones are for... to accurately count folks.

Those drones are collecting the worst and complainiest of that region and dropping them off down here to Florida!

[mhays]

In the internet age, it's asinine that the public wouldn't get the data immediately. The media can still release it (usually badly) to the non-obsessed people.

[chris08876]

Census data is like Narcan for the folks on SSP. They should prioritize the release of the data to the urbanism community first, otherwise we just vomit in suspense.

But I think we are all eager. Hopefully the accuracy improves this time around.

And we need it much more than Rolling Stone, CNN or the Daily Bongo!

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

Here we are:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...migration.html

https://www.census.gov/programs-surv...ta/tables.html

[ChiSoxRox]

(Typical grain of salt but)

Nice growth! California almost got back to its 2020 number, DC breaks 700k, New York state adds 130k

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by IcedCowboyCoffee

I have no idea one way or the other what numbers to expect for that, but a place can have building cranes sprouting like weeds and still be experiencing a population shrinkage even if it doesn't feel like it.

I don't have the numbers on hand but I would not be surprised to find out that the median age for the NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA is higher than the national median age. As the massive boomer generation begins reaching the u.s. life expectancy (which its oldest members just did since it has been 78 years since the end of the war) older population areas will feel the effect of their gradual passing more acutely and sooner than other areas. It's sad to consider, but that seems to be the incoming demographic shift.
I do see that these states which make up the CSA have some of the highest median ages in the country.

Florida is a huge outlier for the obvious reason that it is Florida and its migration has been massive in recent history.

The median age of NY metro is 39, which is the same as the national median age of 39.

[SIGSEGV]

Poor Chicagoland newspapers probably had to alter their doomsday narratives at the last minute.

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

The median age of NY metro is 39, which is the same as the national median age of 39.

Yes, according to these state numbers at least, New York state's population growth is hampered only by domestic outward migration. It estimates the state experienced outward domestic migration of -130k, offset by +200k in international migration and +40k more births than deaths. I'd expect some degree of reflection of this in the metro area's numbers as well.

Ranking of weighted domestic outward migration:

1. Hawaii: -645 per 100,000 people
2. New York: -609 per 100,000 people
3. California: -608 per 100,000 people
4. Alaska: -510 per 100,000 people
5. Illinois: -442 per 100,000 people
6. Massachusetts: -385 per 100,000 people
7. Louisiana: -379 per 100,000 people
8. New Jersey: -374 per 100,000 people
9. Maryland: -296 per 100,000 people
10. Mississippi: -168 per 100,000 people

[subterranean]

Originally Posted by IcedCowboyCoffee

Yes, according to these state numbers at least, New York state's population growth is hampered only by domestic outward migration. It estimates the state experienced outward domestic migration of -130k, offset by +200k in international migration and +40k more births than deaths. I'd expect some degree of reflection of this in the metro area's numbers as well.

Ranking of weighted domestic outward migration:

1. Hawaii: -645 per 100,000 people
2. New York: -609 per 100,000 people
3. California: -608 per 100,000 people
4. Alaska: -510 per 100,000 people
5. Illinois: -442 per 100,000 people
6. Massachusetts: -385 per 100,000 people
7. Louisiana: -379 per 100,000 people
8. New Jersey: -374 per 100,000 people
9. Maryland: -296 per 100,000 people
10. Mississippi: -168 per 100,000 people

Can someone explain for my pea brain how weighted domestic outward migration differs from the US Census metric of net domestic migration (2020-2023) of New York losing 3,291 per 100,000?

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

Originally Posted by subterranean

Can someone explain for my pea brain how weighted domestic outward migration differs from the US Census metric of net domestic migration (2020-2023) of New York losing 3,291 per 100,000?

My math was for this one year, versus three (2020-2023). They're both measuring the same thing.

In a one year timespan, for every 100,000 new york residents, 609 people "left." Or rather that is the net change.

In four years, for every 100,000 new york residents, 4,863 left.

It's a little more complicated because that's just the net value between people who left and who arrived. The number of people who left is undoubtedly higher, but offset by people arriving, to land the number at -609 for this year. I used the term weighted "domestic outward migration" because I was only ranking the ones who saw negative net domestic migration, but I'm talking about the same thing. Sorry for any confusion (and any unintended condescension in this overwrought explanation).