Statistics Canada Reports II

[ZTrade]

Anyone have Ontario municipality populations in a table like that? thank you kindly

[Harrison]

At this rate, Surrey will be the largest municipality in the Lower Mainland within 5 years - pretty nuts.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Harrison

At this rate, Surrey will be the largest municipality in the Lower Mainland within 5 years - pretty nuts.

Will they change the name of the Vancouver CMA?

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Will they change the name of the Vancouver CMA?

According to the 2021 Census, the District of Saanich had a population of 117,735, while the City of Victoria had a population of 91,867. But they still call it Victoria, Naturalich.

I did hear that if Okotoks keeps growing, they will change the name of the Calgary CMA to Okotoks CMA. There will certainly be a number of things to do.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Rank Order Atlantic Canadian CMA/CA Populations, 2026 Estimate, and Percentage Change since 2021

1) Halifax, NS - 544,834 (13.0%)
2) St, John's, NL - 243,478 (10.6%)
3) Moncton, NB - 196,143 (21.3%)
4) Saint John, NB - 144,343 (8.6%)
5) Fredericton, NB - 125,303 (12.9%)
6) Sydney (CBRM), NS - 111,889 (11,1%)
7) Charlottetown, PE - 96,516 (16.1%)
8) Truro, NS - 51,155 (6.4%)
9) New Glasgow, NS - 36,677 ( 3.7%)
10) Bathurst, NB - 33,467 (5.0%)
11) Corner Brook, NL - 31,880 (3.4%)
12) Miramichi, NB - 30,218 (7.5%)
13) Kentville, NS - 29,599 (6.4%)
14) Edmundston, NB - 24,655 (9.5%)
15) Summerside, PE - 21,107 (10.3%)
16) Campbellton, NB - 15,554 (2.3%)
17) Grand Falls/Windsor NL - 14,549 (1,7%)
18) Gander, NL - 14,389 (4.1%)

Percentage Change since 2021 (Top 10)

1) Moncton, NB - 21.3%
2) Charlottetown, PE - 16.1%
3) Halifax, NS - 13.0%
4) Fredericton, NB - 12.9%
5) Sydney (CBRM), NS - 11.1%
6) St. John's, NL - 10.6%
7) Summerside, PE - 10.3%
8) Edmundston, NB - 9.5%
9) Saint John, NB - 8.6%
10) Miramichi, NB - 7.5%

Notes:

- Every CMA/CA in Atlantic Canada had a positive growth rate from 2021-2026.
- The growth rate in CBRM was really surprising, but, this is heavily influenced by international immigration (especially non permanent residents), and is really dependent upon CBU which has one of the largest proportional international student bodies in the country. Recent changes to immigration policy will have a negative effect on the CBRM population. The population of CBRM actually fell last year.

Thanks for putting this together. Always nice to see how Atlantic Canada is growing. My only gripe is the population estimate is 2025 not 2026 as the estimate is calculated from July 1, 2024 to July 1, 2025
Moncton is the growth leader! (percentage wise)
My mom told me she heard on the news that Charlottetown CMA is having a tough time building enough housing to meet demand.

[giallo]

Originally Posted by Architype

I've got the impression that most of the new immigrants and TFWs are living in Surrey.

A lot do, for sure, but Vancouver takes a large amount as well. I still have a bunch of Metro Vancouver rental groups active on Facebook, and 90% of the TFW postings are looking for a place to live in Vancouver. I almost never see Surrey. I do know a few friends who used to live in Vancouver, but bought a place in Surrey recently because it was all they could afford.

As for permanent residents and new immigrants, yeah, I'm sure Surrey takes the majority.

Surrey will take over Vancouver soon. It's inevitable. It might take a little longer than people think, though. Vancouver basically rezoned the upper third of the city to become mid-to-high density. We're going to see a huge transformation with tens of thousands of new housing units being built along every major intersection, transit line and arterial road in the city.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by ZTrade

Anyone have Ontario municipality populations in a table like that? thank you kindly

you can view the Stat Can data here, just enter Ontario into the box and hit the Filter button

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/...025&referencePeriods=20250101%2C20250101

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by giallo

...

As for permanent residents and new immigrants, yeah, I'm sure Surrey takes the majority.

Surrey will take over Vancouver soon.

It might not be as soon as some think.

Look at Mississauga and Brampton, both shrank from 2024-2025, and Toronto CMA is over 7.1 million people or roughly 2.3x Vancouver CMA size.
I recall when many people thought Mississauga would grow to be over 1 Million. Instead it has yet to reach 800k, while other GTA suburbs are now growing quickly, taking growth that decades ago might have went to Mississauga.

[MolsonExport]

And yet, Mississauga is building 80-storey buildings in MCC.

A lot of Mississauga's growth occurred 25 years ago, and all those single family homes that once had 2-3 kids apiece are now empty nester homes.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Thanks for putting this together. Always nice to see how Atlantic Canada is growing. My only gripe is the population estimate is 2025 not 2026 as the estimate is calculated from July 1, 2024 to July 1, 2025
Moncton is the growth leader! (percentage wise)
My mom told me she heard on the news that Charlottetown CMA is having a tough time building enough housing to meet demand.

Thanks.

Yes, you are quite right, the time frame is really July 1st 2020-July 1st 2025

Moncton has been on a roll for 25 years now. I moved to Moncton in 1989. The CA population at the time was about 95,000. We cracked 100,000 about the turn of the millennium and became a CMA in the 2006. We now have over 196,000, and, if growth rates remain similar (debatable), we will likely be over 200,000 by July 1st, 2026.

Charlottetown has also been growing like stink, and your mother is quite right, residential construction has not been keeping up.

I've lived in four communities during my lifetime.
- Charlottetown (21 years)
- Halifax (9 years)
- Summerside (briefly for less than a year)
- Moncton (35 years).

Halifax, Moncton and Charlottetown are the growth leaders in the Maritimes. I've always lived in growing communities.

[giallo]

Originally Posted by Wigs

It might not be as soon as some think.

Look at Mississauga and Brampton, both shrank from 2024-2025, and Toronto CMA is over 7.1 million people or roughly 2.3x Vancouver CMA size.
I recall when many people thought Mississauga would grow to be over 1 Million. Instead it has yet to reach 800k, while other GTA suburbs are now growing quickly, taking growth that decades ago might have went to Mississauga.

That's what I'm saying. People still prefer to live in Vancouver if they can. Surrey is almost always a second or third choice. If Vancouver sees the amount of residential construction it's anticipating, it'll still be in the lead for a while.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Architype

I've got the impression that most of the new immigrants and TFWs are living in Surrey.

Definitely. It will be interesting to see how that goes over the next few years with the changes to immigration, non-permanents in particular.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by giallo

That's what I'm saying. People still prefer to live in Vancouver if they can. Surrey is almost always a second or third choice. If Vancouver sees the amount of residential construction it's anticipating, it'll still be in the lead for a while.

Surrey has been predicted to overtake Vancouver for a long time, and it's always just a few more years away. I do think zoning and construction has a lot to do with it, and of course price. People will always pick Vancouver first.

Surrey is also running out of greenfield development sites, so we'll see what happens. I'll predict Langley will continue to grow quickly, Surrey will slow, Vancouver will keep it steady. Vancouver needs Senakw/Oakridge/Heather Lands/Jericho level developments and 4-6 units per lot density to keep going for the foreseeable future to keep growing at these levels.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

And yet, Mississauga is building 80-storey buildings in MCC.

A lot of Mississauga's growth occurred 25 years ago, and all those single family homes that once had 2-3 kids apiece are now empty nester homes.

This is true. So much development was SFH built from like 1980-2005.

A lot of these new towers in Missing Sausage are spearheaded by the Rogers family, Rogers Real Estate Development Limited
https://mcitycondos.com/condos.php

It was only a matter of time. Downtown Toronto land is far too pricey. Look at how Vaughan--Vaughan Metropolitan Centre is rising up around the TTC subway stop, the northern terminus of Line 1 Yonge-University. In 1991, Vaughan was 115,000. Vaughan is now around 360,000!

Vaughan diagram from the SSP database, everything built or under construction since 2020. Everything from 20 to 61 storeys!
https://skyscraperpage.com/diagrams/?searchID=111036216

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Thanks.

Yes, you are quite right, the time frame is really July 1st 2020-July 1st 2025

Moncton has been on a roll for 25 years now...

I've lived in four communities during my lifetime.
- Charlottetown (21 years)
- Halifax (9 years)
- Summerside (briefly for less than a year)
- Moncton (35 years).

Halifax, Moncton and Charlottetown are the growth leaders in the Maritimes. I've always lived in growing communities.

To me it's a shame that Saint John isn't sharing in this growth. It could be an amazing city proper with say double its current population. So much good, historic bones!

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Surrey has been predicted to overtake Vancouver for a long time, and it's always just a few more years away. I do think zoning and construction has a lot to do with it, and of course price. People will always pick Vancouver first.

Surrey is also running out of greenfield development sites, so we'll see what happens. I'll predict Langley will continue to grow quickly, Surrey will slow, Vancouver will keep it steady. Vancouver needs Senakw/Oakridge/Heather Lands/Jericho level developments and 4-6 units per lot density to keep going for the foreseeable future to keep growing at these levels.

Langley seems to have a good sized area to develop, just by quickly checking wikipedia.
Do Richmond, Burnaby, Coquitlam also have a lot of land left? Because I can see these suburbs becoming much larger.

[someone123]

Surrey vs. Vancouver population is sort of an interesting factoid but you sometimes see people presenting it as two cities vying for primacy in the region in a way that is overblown. If you compared something like total wealth or income, Surrey would presumably be far behind. It's true the metro is becoming more decentralized and there are changes like work from home, but this means downtown Vancouver is less dominant, not that the traditional city centre is in the process of migrating to Surrey. Vancouver also has a lot of physical advantages like better waterfront and scenery.

It's true that suburbs with greenfield developable areas tend to get built out then their growth rate drops. Not sure what's left in Surrey. This is part of what happened to Mississauga. It happened to encompass part of the right of new suburban development happening around the Toronto region. People attributed this phenomenon to the brilliance of the mayor of Mississauga sometimes but it is the wider context that built that growth engine, not specific brilliant acts on the part of Mississauga politicians.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Will they change the name of the Vancouver CMA?

The mere mention of this will have Vancouverites losing sleep

[zoomer]

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

The mere mention of this will have Vancouverites losing sleep

because..? I don't get it, feels like I'm missing an inside joke.

[someone123]

It reminds me a bit of San Francisco and San Jose, except San Jose actually did surpass SF in population and has a bunch of Fortune 500 HQs. Despite that, San Francisco remains more prominent. I'm not sure Surrey has much of even regional importance. I mostly think of it as a blob of metro Vancouver suburbs that just happens to have been given bigger boundaries than say Burnaby or Coquitlam. Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, and Coquitlam are all attached with arbitrary borders. Burnaby isn't really a "city" and doesn't have a conventional city centre.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Will they change the name of the Vancouver CMA?

No, if that was the case the Victoria CMA would already be called the Saanich CMA.

2021 Census Data:
City of Victoria: 91,867
District of Saanich: 117,735

If they ever decided to start hyphenating them, it would be a mess.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

The mere mention of this will have Vancouverites losing sleep

T'would be a disaster of Okotoksian proportions!