Quote:
Originally Posted by Jdawgboy
While it is widely understood that our planet has natural cycles, that does not mean climate change due to global warming is occurring and overwhelming evidence points to human consumption of fossil fuels. We may be in a long term drought so plan to deal with this reality. Temperatures here will no doubt get hotter and hotter, it is very likely we will see another summer like the one year before last. As far as precipitation is concerned, there is overall agreement that Texas will get drier as a whole but there is some debate about specific regions such as the Austin area in what kind of local precipitation changes we will see over the next 10 to 20 years. Some precip models actually show an increase in annual rainfall around the Austin area so in other words precipitation is a lot harder to accurately predict in running climate model forecasts. Temperature models have more confidence in the outlook.
My thinking is Austin will continue with longer dry spells with bursts of heavy rain in between like we have seen over the last few years as opposed to a more evenly distributed annual rainfall we once had 10 to 20 years ago. With some years being below average and others at average or above. But as an example we actually did reach around our average rainfall in 2012 but now our rainfall is very erratic and then we get a month or two in between of literally bone dry weather. Yea we got about 32 inches but in the way we got it didn't help much and did not fill the tributaries. I think our overall average will slowly decline over 20 years from 32-34 inches to 24-26 inches but I don't see this part of Texas becoming desert. Again we could see the opposite happen and start getting more rain. Reasons some models show that is our position to the gulf and the escarpment. The gulf I'll move inland a little as the icecaps continue to melt. But no doubt it will get hotter overall.
That's my prediction as I've studied Meteorology and Environmental Sciences before I changed my degree plan so I am knowledgeable in this area.
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Appreciate the insight. While it is harder to show what affect things like solar flare cycles vs human caused emissions, I think at this point it's pretty blatantly obvious that it is getting warmer.
I lived in Alaska for 10 years, and no one has ever seen the glaciers melt like they are right now. I lived on the Arctic Ocean in Barrow for a while as well and everyone who had lived there for a long time would talk about the impact and I mean locals many of whom weren't well educated on such matters in the first place. This year, the there was clear ice for a while in late February. That means the ice was thin enough that the tide could pull out the ice. Usually the ice is frozen solid for 6+ miles out.
I hope Austin does not turn into a drier climate as I have so many fond memories regarding water. I was reading a research paper talking about the impact on the environment in the hill country due to us reducing the water level of the aquifers so much over the years. So many spring fed creeks that no longer exist, etc...
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