Largest Combined Statistical Areas by Diversity Index, 2024:

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Yeah, Philadelphia's black population has remained remarkably stable since the 1970s, while Detroit's started to rapidly plummet after the 2000 census.

Philadelphia Black non-Hispanic pop. per census

1970: 648,887
1980: 633,079
1990: 623,132
2000: 646,476
2010: 643,975
2020: 614,254


Detroit Black non-Hispanic pop. per census

1970: 660,518
1980: 754,512
1990: 775,092
2000: 772,431
2010: 586,725
2020: 493,394

I may also speculate that perhaps Philly benefits from being between two expensive cities/metros, NY and DC, in its urban MidAtlantic corridor. So perhaps it gets Blacks that want to stay in the urban MidAtlantic/Northeast but have been priced out of NYC and DC. Or Blacks considering migrating to the NE/MidAtlantic, such as some Caribbeans and Africans, but can't afford NYC and DC.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The share/number of black residents in Philly proper hasn't plummeted like in most other major U.S. cities. This is generally true in expensive cities like SF and cheap cities like Detroit.

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Yeah, Philadelphia's black population has remained remarkably stable since the 1970s, while Detroit's started to rapidly plummet after the 2000 census.

Philadelphia Black non-Hispanic pop. per census

1970: 648,887
1980: 633,079
1990: 623,132
2000: 646,476
2010: 643,975
2020: 614,254


Detroit Black non-Hispanic pop. per census

1970: 660,518
1980: 754,512
1990: 775,092
2000: 772,431
2010: 586,725
2020: 493,394

And here's Chicago for comparison.

Way more detroit-like, though the decline began back in the 80s.


Chicago Black non-Hispanic pop. per census

1970: 1,102,620
1980: 1,187,905
1990: 1,076,099
2000: 1,053,739
2010: 872,286
2020: 787,551

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by DCReid

I may also speculate that perhaps Philly benefits from being between two expensive cities/metros, NY and DC, in its urban MidAtlantic corridor. So perhaps it gets Blacks that want to stay in the urban MidAtlantic/Northeast but have been priced out of NYC and DC. Or Blacks considering migrating to the NE/MidAtlantic, such as some Caribbeans and Africans, but can't afford NYC and DC.

That's possibly a factor. The Philadelphia MSA's black population has continued to grow while the Detroit MSA's black population has experienced a (mild) decline since 2000. So the stability of Philadelphia's black population could be aided by spillover from New York.

Phila. MSA
1970: 843,135
2000: 1,131,742
2020: 1,273,120

Detroit MSA
1970: 757,083
2000: 1,013,113
2020: 961,076

SF MSA
1970: 330,107
2000: 346,147
2020: 335,135

But there's also the reality that Philadelphia is in a region where sprawl has been mostly cutoff. Although the Detroit MSA lost overall black population since 2000, the city of Detroit lost more population to its suburbs than Detroit's metro lost overall.

[Crawford]

Yeah, I think NYC overflow plays a major role. It isn't immigration. Philly doesn't have a huge foreign-born black population.

[Steely Dan]

Looking at Chicago and Detroit, maybe Philly is just a bit behind those two and is now just entering the first stages of mass black-flight?

[UrbanRevival]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Yeah, I think NYC overflow plays a major role. It isn't immigration. Philly doesn't have a huge foreign-born black population.

Historically and relative to the other major East Coast hubs, that's true. But in recent years, immigration is definitely playing much more of a role:

There are an estimated 125,000 Black immigrants — most of whom hail from countries across Africa — in the Philadelphia metro area, according to the Pew Charitable Trusts analysis. Between 2000 and 2019, Philadelphia’s population of Black immigrants grew by 121%, data shows. That doesn’t even include more recent waves of migration from African nations seeking asylum.

“Philadelphia has been more welcoming to us than many other cities in the United States, now we have found our niche,” said Voffee Jabateh, founder and executive director of the Africa Cultural Alliance of North America, or ACANA.

https://whyy.org/articles/africatown-new-community-center-southwest-philadelphia/

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by UrbanRevival

Historically and relative to the other major East Coast hubs, that's true. But in recent years, immigration is definitely playing much more of a role:

I have a feeling that this is also due to black immigrants spilling over from New York, versus them going directly to Philadelphia. If, like Detroit, Philadelphia was 500 miles away from NYC I don't think you'd see the same levels of black immigrants, all else being equal.

[UrbanRevival]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I have a feeling that this is also due to black immigrants spilling over from New York, versus them going directly to Philadelphia. If, like Detroit, Philadelphia was 500 miles away from NYC I don't think you'd see the same levels of black immigrants, all else being equal.

This is a pretty silly argument, as Philly obviously wouldn't exist in its current form 500 miles away. Its development was inherent to being a major East Coast port city and massive rail hub, crucial to connecting the South to the Northeast.

Is the NY connection/proximity a factor? Sure, but to suggest that Philly doesn't innately attract immigrants with its own very large and economically robust metro area, which has existed for centuries, is ignorant of history. It was one of the first pre-eminent immigrant gateways (3rd largest) of the US.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by UrbanRevival

This is a pretty silly argument, as Philly obviously wouldn't exist in its current form 500 miles away. Its development was inherent to being a major East Coast port city and massive rail hub, crucial to connecting the South to the Northeast.

Is the NY connection/proximity a factor? Sure, but to suggest that Philly doesn't innately attract immigrants with its own very large and economically robust metro area, which has existed for centuries, is ignorant of history. It was one of the first pre-eminent immigrant gateways (3rd largest) of the US.

But this isn't the early 19th century anymore, and ports and railroads aren't the kingmakers in the modern era.