Canadian Federal Election

[1overcosc]

I think Carney will win the leadership race simply because he seems to be exciting the Liberal base way more and that's what wins leadership races. But I don't think he'll do well with the general public. My prediction is we'll something vaguely reminiscent of the US election, where there's a progressive echo chamber that has deluded itself into thinking Carney is popular and can win, a viewpoint bolstered by cherry picking a few very questionable polls (Graves being our Seltzer in this analogy), that will be in for a very rude awakening on election day.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Weird poll.

There are differences between who I think has a positive vision, who I think will win, who I think should win, etc.

A reasonable justification for a poll limited to two options (Carney/Poilievre) would be if the question is “all things considered, which of these two would you rather have as next PM?”

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by LuluBobo

Carney's Liberals are the closest alignment to my political beliefs. But I will likely vote NDP since the Liberals will be demolished in Saskatchewan.

It's almost certainly a Tory government, but I wouldn't be surprised if the campaign results in a minority.

I don't get this logic. A Conservative minority requires a huge change in the polls. Why is then a few more points to a Liberal minority impossible?

If Carney's Liberals are closest to your views isn't PP much closer than Jagmeet?

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I think Carney will win the leadership race simply because he seems to be exciting the Liberal base way more and that's what wins leadership races. But I don't think he'll do well with the general public. My prediction is we'll something vaguely reminiscent of the US election, where there's a progressive echo chamber that has deluded itself into thinking Carney is popular and can win, a viewpoint bolstered by cherry picking a few very questionable polls (Graves being our Seltzer in this analogy), that will be in for a very rude awakening on election day.

If he closes the gap to 1.5% like Kamala did he will do very well indeed holding them to a minority or possibly winning one himself since Libs have structural advantage seat wise.

Trudeau is much more hated than Biden though so a lot more to overcome.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Ozabald

Burnaby South is being redistributed into two ridings. Both ridings show leaning towards the Conservatives. Singh will not cruise to re-election.

Interesting, but I’ll still be surprised if he doesn’t win his riding pretty easily.

[isaidso]

Pierre Trumpievre is a Canada sell out and needs to be stopped dead in his tracks. Despicable person. A few weeks ago, it felt like all hope was lost but Trudeau stepping down and Carney throwing his hat in the ring gives one a glimmer of hope. I was no fan of Trudeau but would vote for Carney in a heartbeat.

[roman]

carbon tax Carney - no thank you

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Pierre Trumpievre is a Canada sell out and needs to be stopped dead in his tracks. Despicable person. A few weeks ago, it felt like all hope was lost but Trudeau stepping down and Carney throwing his hat in the ring gives one a glimmer of hope. I was no fan of Trudeau but would vote for Carney in a heartbeat.

You were never going to vote CPC anyway, though, like all the other people pumping Carney.

[roman]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I think Carney will win the leadership race simply because he seems to be exciting the Liberal base way more and that's what wins leadership races. But I don't think he'll do well with the general public. My prediction is we'll something vaguely reminiscent of the US election, where there's a progressive echo chamber that has deluded itself into thinking Carney is popular and can win, a viewpoint bolstered by cherry picking a few very questionable polls (Graves being our Seltzer in this analogy), that will be in for a very rude awakening on election day.

I agree with your assessment of what will happen - I think that the Liberals can in no way convince Canadians that their party will ever improve this country especially with Carney who is a carbon tax supporter.

[samne]

Can Trudeau hand over the PM role to Carney if he wins the Liberal Leadership race?

If this is the case, then it explains alot of what is going on and why Carney decided to jump in now. Basically becoming a G7 Leader by way of a handful of party delegates. Further, running in the election as an incumbent and without a seat in Parliament.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by samne

Can Trudeau hand over the PM role to Carney if he wins the Liberal Leadership race?

If this is the case, then it explains alot of what is going on and why Carney decided to jump in now. Basically becoming a G7 Leader by way of a handful of party delegates. Further, running in the election as an incumbent and without a seat in Parliament.

Yes. By convention, once Carney or Freeland wins the race, Trudeau will resign and ask the GG to appoint Carney/Freeland. Some would argue that in a situation like this one, where it's a minority and the opposition has indicated it's intention to vote non-confidence, the GG should dissolve Parliament instead of making the appointment but that's not generally how it works.

The exception could be if Parliament ends up being recalled early (by court order or by an emergency of some sort) and the new leader is selected during a general election campaign. In that case JT would probably remain PM until after the election.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

You were never going to vote CPC anyway, though, like all the other people pumping Carney.

I was. And still might. But I know I'd rather have Carney navigating us through a trade war. I just think we need a cut from the Liberal far left policies on Climate and DEI so will probably find my way back to Conservatives. But I know they will do a lot of dumb populist crap on the economy.

[Djeffery]

As suspected, Ontario looks to be going to the polls ahead of the Feds, as reported by Global News. Feb 27 is supposedly the day.

https://x.com/ColinDMello/status/1882564881611911480

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by samne

Carney finally saw an opening and parachuted himself in. Quite the opportunist. Not opposed to Carney as Liberal Leader. But the Liberals need to at least sit one out and clear the decks before getting back in. Otherwise it’s just status quo of a disastrous last number of years.

Odd take. Trudeau had been trying for years to bring him into the fold.

[Build.It]

Has Carney even revealed what his vision is?

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Weird poll.

There are differences between who I think has a positive vision, who I think will win, who I think should win, etc.

Also weirdly timed poll as we have only a general understanding of Poilievre's vision, and virtually none of Carney's. The question could be better answered after election platforms are released.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

As suspected, Ontario looks to be going to the polls ahead of the Feds, as reported by Global News. Feb 27 is supposedly the day.

https://x.com/ColinDMello/status/1882564881611911480

A remarkably short campaign, although Ford will no doubt cite the Trump factor.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Also weirdly timed poll as we have only a general understanding of Poilievre's vision, and virtually none of Carney's. The question could be better answered after election platforms are released.

And yet according to the poll Carney has the better vision by a landslide lol.

[Calgarian]

Originally Posted by roman

carbon tax Carney - no thank you

Has Carney come out in support of the carbon tax, or is this just an assumption.

[TorontoDrew]

The best thing for the Liberals, and the NDP frankly, is to wait until October 20 to hold an election. PP's fear of Trump, and speaking out against his own mini MAGA in Canada group will be his undermining. The longer we are living in a Trump world the bigger the backlash there will be at the polls against politicians that seem to look up to Trump and echo his policies. PP can't even say transgender Canadians exist.

An early Ontario election could play a huge role as well. Ford could easily win an election if one was held right now. If he did that the chances of Ontario also backing a PC Conservative party would become very slim. History has shown that Ontarian's don't like having the same political party running the Federal Government and Provincial government at the same time.