US Census Bureau data for Austin and other cities

[The ATX]

The Census Bureau had Austin's 2016 population at 947,890. Austin gained over 12K since then, and they estimated the 2017 city population at about 950K. So they obvious lowered prior year estimates.

[smith_atx]

Originally Posted by Dcbrickley

there are plenty of those, it just depends on what your expectations are.

Originally Posted by chundercracker

Last time I checked there were quite a few 1/1 units for sale in the 350k range in the Milago.

Obviously these can be found. My point was that if Austin is to densify further, more of these units will hopefully be built in areas all around the city, not just downtown.

I was mistaken on The Avenue, I thought it would be units for sale.

[Jdawgboy]

I just want us to reach 1 million officially by 2020. I don't care if we slow down after that, it's more of a goal number for me than anything. It will be interesting to see how much we add once all of the VMUs and other construction is completed. It's a huge amount which is bound to give us a boost.

[urbancore]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

I just want us to reach 1 million officially by 2020. I don't care if we slow down after that, it's more of a goal number for me than anything. It will be interesting to see how much we add once all of the VMUs and other construction is completed. It's a huge amount which is bound to give us a boost.

With our current zoning, and even with code next, there is probably a semi hard ceiling Austin proper will approach, annexation notwithstanding. I wonder what that final number will be. I bet it’s not 2m.

[austlar1]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

I just want us to reach 1 million officially by 2020. I don't care if we slow down after that, it's more of a goal number for me than anything. It will be interesting to see how much we add once all of the VMUs and other construction is completed. It's a huge amount which is bound to give us a boost.

Imagine how frustrating it is for LA boosters to have the 2017 estimate come in at 3,999,759!! Poor LA just can't get over that 4 million hump. I remember it took San Jose seemingly forever to cross over the 1 million person threshold. I don't think Austin is going to get there in 2020 unless there is already a big under-count. We'd have to add almost 17,000 a year for three years running. It's possible, but I think we are going to have our nose up against the glass in 2020.

[The ATX]

Plus the State Leg effectively ended annexation beginning last December. So the quarter million folks living in the unincorporated ETJ won't be added to the city population.

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by The ATX

Plus the State Leg effectively ended annexation beginning last December. So the quarter million folks living in the unincorporated ETJ won't be added to the city population.

At least not anytime soon. Never say never. It's still legal to annex...just much harder now.

[GoldenBoot]

Personally, I don't really care too much with regard to city proper populations. I watch the metro population growth much more closely. It's more telling when comparing "cities."

[Jdawgboy]

I already round up to a million anyways when people ask me the pop of Austin. Reality is it's most likely very close. Not sure by what criteria the census counts, but the city is organic so hard numbers are never accurate. It's one thing for small towns, but large cities constantly shift with population. I consider the census number a transient number.

[GoldenBoot]

Let's not worry over a one-year snapshot. One data point does not make a trend.

Since 2010:

-Austin (City): up 20.28% (or 2.9% average annual growth - **Fastest growing U.S. city with a population over 500,000)

-Austin (Metro): up 23.28% (or 3.3% average annual growth - **Fastest growing U.S. metro with a population over 1,500,000)

[The ATX]

I found this in the Nashville forum on UP. It's a list of the U.S. Metros that had 100,000+ population in 1950.

Most Metros back then were probably one county. Notice how the industrial NE and Rust Belt cities dominate the list and how insignificant Austin was back then. Corpus was bigger than Austin and catching El Paso was only a dream.

Metropolitan Areas -- 1950
1.New York -- 12,911,994
2.Chicago -- 5,495,364
3.Los Angeles -- 4,367,911
4.Philadelphia -- 3,671,048
5.Detroit -- 3,016,197
6.Boston -- 2,875,876
7.San Francisco -- 2,240,767
8.Pittsburgh -- 2,213,236
9.St. Louis -- 1,681,281
10.Cleveland -- 1,465,511
11.Washington -- 1,464,089
12.Baltimore -- 1,337,373
13.Minneapolis -- 1,116,509
14.Buffalo -- 1,089,230
15.Cincinnati -- 904,402
16.Milwaukee -- 871,047
17.Kansas City -- 814,357
18.Houston -- 806,701
19.Seattle -- 732,992
20.Portland -- 704,829
21.New Orleans -- 685,405
22.Providence -- 681,815
23.Atlanta -- 671,797
24.Dallas -- 614,799
25.Louisville -- 576,900
26.Denver -- 563,832
27.Birmingham -- 558,928
28.San Diego -- 556,808
29.Indianapolis -- 551,777
30.Worcester -- 546,401
31.New Haven -- 545,784
32.Hartford -- 539,661
33.Youngstown -- 528,498
34.Albany -- 514,490
35.Bridgeport -- 504,342
36.Columbus -- 503,410
37.San Antonio -- 500,460
38.Miami -- 495,084
39.Rochester -- 487,632
40.Memphis -- 482,393
41.Dayton -- 457,333
42.Springfield -- 455,565
43.Norfolk -- 446,200
44.Allentown -- 437,824
45.Akron -- 410,032
46.Tampa -- 409,143
47.Toledo -- 395,551
48.Wilkes-Barre -- 392,241
49.New Bedford -- 381,569
50.Omaha -- 366,395
51.Fort Worth -- 361,253
52.Wheeling -- 354,092
53.Honolulu -- 353,020
54.Syracuse -- 341,719
55.Knoxville -- 337,105
56.Phoenix -- 331,770
57.Richmond -- 328,050
58.Oklahoma City -- 325,352
59.Charleston -- 322,072
60.Nashville -- 321,758
61.Jacksonville -- 304,029
62.Harrisburg -- 292,241
63.Johnstown -- 291,354
64.San Jose -- 290,547
65.Grand Rapids -- 288,292
66.Utica -- 284,262
67.Canton -- 283,194
68.San Bernardino -- 281,642
69.Sacramento -- 277,140
70.Fresno -- 276,515
71.Tacoma -- 275,876
72.Salt Lake City -- 274,895
73.Flint -- 270,963
74.Wilmington -- 268,387
75.Scranton -- 257,396
76.Reading -- 255,740
77.Duluth -- 252,777
78.Tulsa -- 251,686
79.Peoria -- 250,512
80.Chattanooga -- 246,453
81.Huntington -- 245,795
82.Lancaster -- 234,717
83.Davenport -- 234,256
84.Mobile -- 231,105
85.Trenton -- 229,781
86.Des Moines -- 226,010
87.Wichita -- 222,290
88.Spokane -- 221,561
89.Erie -- 219,388
90.South Bend -- 205,058
91.York -- 202,737
92.Stockton -- 200,750
93.Charlotte -- 197,052
94.Little Rock -- 196,685
95.Beaumont -- 195,083
96.El Paso -- 194,968
97.Greensboro -- 191,057
98.Brockton -- 189,468
99.Binghamton -- 184,698
100.Fort Wayne -- 183,722
101.Shreveport -- 176,547
102.Lansing -- 172,941
103.Columbus -- 170,541
104.Madison -- 169,357
105.Portland -- 169,201
106.Greenville -- 168,152
107.Corpus Christi -- 165,471
108.Charleston -- 164,856
109.Augusta -- 162,013
110.Austin -- 160,980
111.Evansville -- 160,422
112.Baton Rouge -- 158,236
113.Manchester -- 156,987
114.Saginaw -- 153,515
115.Rockford -- 152,385
116.Savannah -- 151,481
117.Lorain -- 148,162
118.Hamilton -- 147,203
119.Albuquerque -- 145,673
120.Winston-Salem -- 146,135
121.Columbia -- 142,565
122.Jackson -- 142,164
123.Altoona -- 139,514
124.Montgomery -- 138,965
125.Raleigh -- 136,450
126.Macon -- 135,043
127.Roanoke -- 133,407
128.Pittsfield -- 132,966
129.Atlantic City -- 132,399
130.Springfield -- 131,484
131.Waco -- 130,194
132.Kalamazoo -- 126,707
133.Asheville -- 124,403
134.Lincoln -- 119,742
135.Orlando -- 114,950
136.Galveston -- 113,066
137.Springfield -- 111,661
138.Racine -- 109,585
139.Jackson -- 107,925
140.Topeka -- 105,418
141.Terre Haute -- 105,160
142.Springfield -- 104,823
143.Cedar Rapids -- 104,274
144.Sioux City -- 103,917
145.Durham -- 101,639
146.Lubbock -- 101,048
147.Lexington -- 100,746
148.Waterloo -- 100,448

http://www.demographia.com/dm-usmet-fr50.htm

[KevinFromTexas]

Portland bigger than Dallas? I don't care what Portland they're talking about, that's hard to imagine. It's also interesting how close Denver, San Diego, and Birmingham were compared to today.

[austlar1]

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

Portland bigger than Dallas? I don't care what Portland they're talking about, that's hard to imagine. It's also interesting how close Denver, San Diego, and Birmingham were compared to today.

Well, they were still counting FW and Dallas as separate metros back in 1950, and I can attest to the fact that they were separate. It used to take an hour or more to drive between the two cities. Most of it was a drive through the countryside on an undivided four lane highway with a few stop lights. Arlington had about 7,500 people in those days.

[paul78701]

Austin area population growth for 2019 among highest in U.S., says new report
http://austin.culturemap.com/news/city-l...in-2019-growth-rate-reports-demographer/

[The ATX]

I think the Census Bureau releases the new MSA numbers in about three weeks - unless the Govmnt shutdown delayed it. They'll probably be close to those estimates.

[GoldenBoot]

Seems pretty close. Based on the growth patterns over the last decade, my estimate for July 1, 2019 Austin MSA is ~2.254 million (so, on par). We'll see how close I am in a few weeks as the July 1, 2018 estimates are released by the Bureau. My algorithm estimates Austin's MSA was roughly 2.184 million on July 1, 2018. However, some suggest growth actually slowed a bit in 2018. So, the Bureau's estimate may be a little less. Additionally, the Bureau, from time-to-time, may adjust previous years' estimates (up or down). Mucking the whole thing up. We'll see.

[urbancore]

what do you think "Austin proper" is now? 1.?

[KevinFromTexas]

Going by that, if we're seeing 152 new residents a day since 2010, that's 55,480 a year. If you multiply that by 8, you get 443,840. The 2010 census was 790,390. So if you combine those two, you get 1,234,230 in the city.

[SkyPie]

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

Going by that, if we're seeing 152 new residents a day since 2010, that's 55,480 a year. If you multiply that by 8, you get 443,840. The 2010 census was 790,390. So if you combine those two, you get 1,234,230 in the city.

I believe that the 152 number is the entire metro, not just City of Austin. I read a few days ago (can't remember where) that the city is expect to surpass 1.0 MM as early as 2020.

[Jdawgboy]

I can't see how we wouldn't pass 1 million by 2020 I mean we are pretty close now.