US Census Bureau data for Austin and other cities - Page 17

paul78701 · #**321** Posted **Mar 22, 2018, 4:48 PM**

Here's the ABJ article:
https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/...lation-keeps-popping-heres-how-many.html

wwmiv · #**322** Posted **Mar 23, 2018, 12:46 AM**

For those who don't want to go click through data and want it presented here:

Metro - 2010 Census Pop. (Rank) - 2016 Est. Pop. (Rank) - 2017 Est. Pop. (Rank)

DFW - 5,965,343 (4th) - 7,253,424 (4th) - 7,399,662 (4th)
Houston - 5,920,416 (6th) - 6,798010 (5th) - 6,892,427 (5th)
San Antonio - 2,142,508 (27th) - 2,426,211 (24th) - 2,473,974 (24th)
Austin - 1,716,289 (36th) - 2,060,558 (32nd) - 2,115,827 (31st)
McAllen - 774,769 (72nd) - 850,187 (68th) - 860,661 (66th)
El Paso - 804,123 (69th) - 841,220 (69th) - 844,818 (69th)

Since 2010/2016, percentage growth:

DFW: 15.15%/2.02%
Houston: 16.42%/1.39%
San Antonio: 15.47%/1.97%
Austin: 23.28%/2.68%
McAllen: 11.09%/1.23%
El Paso: 5.06%/0.43%

JoninATX · #**323** Posted **Mar 23, 2018, 1:42 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Novacek

Didn't quite jump Kansas city yet (only 13k back).

LV is still growing, so it'll probably still be a while until we pass them.

Next after KC is probably Cincinnati (probably in two years, they only grew 13k last year).

We may end up passing Pittsburgh before Sacremento, as the former is still shrinking.

Back 2 wks ago I stated that Austin will overtake KC but fell short. With some random calculations and projections based on the 2016-2017 model is that Austin surpassed KC in back in late November.

Austin 2,115,827 | GRPY: 55,269 | Monthly GR: 4,606
Kansas City 2,128,912 | GRPY: 22,530 | Monthly GR: 1,877

November 23rd 2017 when Austin surpassed KC
Austin: 2,138,089
Kansas City: 2,137,984

N90 · #**324** Posted **Mar 23, 2018, 9:26 AM**

By the census ATX will be #29, flying by KCMO and Cincy. Vegas is already ahead and growing by just as much as ATX so can't overtake that. ATX will pass Pittsburgh and Sacramento the year after the census.

wwmiv · #**325** Posted **Mar 23, 2018, 10:10 AM**

If each metropolitan area neither adds nor subtracts counties while continuing to grow in population per year at the average of the yearly percentage rates of the past eight July 1, 201X estimates from 2010 to 2017 (a reasonable, if unlikely, suggestion), Austin will surpass these cities in these years (July 1):

Kansas City in 2018: 2145947 to 2104591
Cincinnati in 2019: 2242035 to 2196939
Las Vegas and Pittsburgh in 2021: 2375770 to 2361977 and 2319993
Sacramento in 2023: 2517484 to 2482190
Portland in 2027: 2826773 to 2807973
St. Louis in 2028: 2909860 to 2835031
Baltimore in 2029: 2995388 to 2974530
Charlotte in 2034: 3462251 to 3441256

And I'll stop at everybody's favorite discussion point:

San Antonio in 2035: 3564016 to 3536775

... to be the 22nd largest MSA, and would not pass another city until 2042 (San Diego). At that point, we're within shouting distance of Detroit (2043), Tampa (2044), Orlando (2045), Denver (2045), and Minneapolis (2046). After that there's a huge gap to overtake Boston.

I'd put wagers on everything up thru Sacramento happening on schedule. After that, things could change.

wwmiv · #**326** Posted **Mar 23, 2018, 10:28 AM**

For that matter, in the vein of ridiculous forecasts using the same method above (to show why forecasts past around 10 years are fools' errands), the top 10 in the year 2100:

Houston: 39.63 million
DFW: 37.59 million
NYC: 31.11 million
Austin: 23.43 million
Los Angeles: 21.24 million
Atlanta: 20.21 million
Miami: 19.69 million
Phoenix: 19.52 million
D.C. 18.68 million
Orlando: 16.69 million

The ATX · #**327** Posted **Apr 14, 2018, 1:05 AM**

Here's the list of fastest growing large metros this decade:

Jdawgboy · #**328** Posted **Apr 14, 2018, 1:49 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by The ATX

Here's the list of fastest growing large metros this decade:

Actually the last 18 years.

The ATX · #**329** Posted **Apr 14, 2018, 2:05 AM**

Thanks, J. I fixed it.

The ATX · #**330** Posted **May 24, 2018, 5:27 AM**

City proper numbers are out:

https://www.mystatesman.com/news/local/p...016-austin-waned/VZ4ghjPpD7XgAfZXiNQqHJ/

The North One · #**331** Posted **May 24, 2018, 5:48 AM**

This is insane, even the fastest growing city in the US has its suburbs growing faster than it, is there any hope for this country??

electricron · #**332** Posted **May 24, 2018, 1:59 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by The North One

This is insane, even the fastest growing city in the US has its suburbs growing faster than it, is there any hope for this country??

Not until the central city changes its' construction environment.
The reason why contractors build new homes in suburbia is because it is ultimately more profitable for them to do so there. Change your bureaucracy to make it more profitable to build new homes in the central city and contractors will build there once again.
So what gets in the way? We could list many, but here's a few that reduces profits: (a) affordable units requirements in every large project and historic buildings limitations that reduces the amount of plots available for reconstruction. It's not like suburbs don't have the same restrictions, it's just that their bureaucracy is much smaller and it's much easier to cut through all the red tape.

If you could build a new home in the suburbs that turns a 70% profit compared to a 20% profit in the central city, where would you build most of your new homes?

KevinFromTexas · #**333** Posted **May 24, 2018, 2:12 PM**

Eh, there's tons of construction happening in Austin. The question wasn't about why isn't stuff getting built in Austin - stuff is, the question was why are the suburbs still sprawling. The answer is because they choose to.

You are right, though. It is a matter of profit, but the real consequence for Austin is affordability. People aren't choosing to move to the suburbs because they can't find housing in Austin, it's because they can't find affordable housing in Austin.

Austin isn't going to get denser and offset the the growth of the suburbs by making it cheaper/easier to build single family homes. Besides that, where are you going to put more of them?

We vs us · #**334** Posted **May 24, 2018, 3:33 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

It is a matter of profit, but the real consequence for Austin is affordability. People are choosing to move to the suburbs because they can't find housing in Austin, it's because they can't find affordable housing in Austin.

This. It isn't just demand for suburban amenities, it's demand for suburban pricing.

urbancore · #**335** Posted **May 24, 2018, 3:46 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

Eh, there's tons of construction happening in Austin.

I agree and my take is this. Once this massive new apartment construction wave finishes up, we will see a big yoy jump.

Also, anecdotally, on my street alone there are 9 new builds under construction or just wrapped up.....5 of them are owner builds, not builder specs. Buyers are scooping up old homes typically occupied by 1 person (in my case the original occupant from the 50's passed on), tearing it down and replacing it with whatever the lot will allow (typically 40% of the lot - yielding 2200-3800sqft homes)

They occupy these new homes with families (in my case 5 people). Zilker Elem, just a few years ago was on the chopping block due to low enrollment, is now JAM packed. All of my neighbors in new houses have kids, are expecting a kid, or both.

There are 4 other homes that are spec houses by builders....that is 9 new homes on Hether in the 3 blocks from Bluebonnet to Lamar. Just in a 24 month period. I would guess just from those new homes alone, that would net a least 20 new people in 3 blocks in 2 years.

This is not just what I see on my street, I see it all over the neighborhood. The park is packed with new families from all over Austin, and beyond, most of them with some sort of tie to Texas at least. The 1000 sqft homes being torn down are occupied at most by 2 people and families are replacing them.

I think if the NIMBY's got out of their homes and joined the rest of us walking down to Blues on the Green...they would see that the changes in their neighborhood are more about the people than the architecture.

nixcity · #**336** Posted **May 24, 2018, 3:58 PM**

People are moving to the suburbs and affordability is escaping due to the artificially limited amount of supply. Housing permits are waaaay down from when Austin was most affordable in the 80's. Just look at how long it took for the Grove to get started to get an idea.

smith_atx · #**337** Posted **May 24, 2018, 5:00 PM**

I really wish we'd see more "affordable" ($250k to $450k) town home/condo options closer to the city core. People get tired of raising rents but there aren't a ton of options for buying in that price range.

I wonder if The Avenue will help push this market forward but I'm not sure what their prices will be.

urbancore · #**338** Posted **May 24, 2018, 6:20 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by smith_atx

I really wish we'd see more "affordable" ($250k to $450k) town home/condo options closer to the city core. People get tired of raising rents but there aren't a ton of options for buying in that price range.

I wonder if The Avenue will help push this market forward but I'm not sure what their prices will be.

there are plenty of those, it just depends on what your expectations are.

The ATX · #**339** Posted **May 24, 2018, 9:58 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by smith_atx

I really wish we'd see more "affordable" ($250k to $450k) town home/condo options closer to the city core. People get tired of raising rents but there aren't a ton of options for buying in that price range.

I wonder if The Avenue will help push this market forward but I'm not sure what their prices will be.

The Avenue is rental.

chundercracker · #**340** Posted **May 24, 2018, 11:16 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by smith_atx

I really wish we'd see more "affordable" ($250k to $450k) town home/condo options closer to the city core. People get tired of raising rents but there aren't a ton of options for buying in that price range.

Last time I checked there were quite a few 1/1 units for sale in the 350k range in the Milago.