Canadian Airport Thread II

[thenoflyzone]

Canada expanded its bilateral air agreement with 3 countries last week. Ethiopia, Jordan and Turkiye. A step in the right direction, but mostly underwhelming, quite frankly. Ethiopian Airlines must be disappointed with this. They wanted more than just 2 frequencies, in order to increase YYZ and launch YUL. I think they'll just increase YYZ to daily with this. Let's see what they do. The Turkish rights are just for more all-cargo flights, and RJ will be able to go daily to Canada. Will be interesting to see if they completely split YUL/YYZ ops and fly non stop to YYZ with this news.

https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-c...d-turkiye.html

Canadians to benefit from expanded air transport agreements with Ethiopia, Jordan and Türkiye

All Canadians benefit from ample and diverse flight options, whether travelling for pleasure or business, or moving people and goods. The Government of Canada is working hard to expand Canada’s international air transport agreements to offer more choice and convenience for shippers and travellers.

The Minister of Transport, Pablo Rodriguez, today announced that Canada has recently expanded its air transport agreements with Ethiopia, Jordan and Türkiye.

The expanded agreement with Ethiopia allows seven weekly passenger flights for each country, up from five. It will support growing bilateral ties and stronger connectivity with Ethiopia, and enhanced access to sub-Saharan Africa.
The expanded agreement with Jordan enables seven weekly passenger flights for each country, up from three. It will accommodate growing passenger demand between Canada and Jordan.
The expanded agreement with Türkiye increases the number of weekly all-cargo flights to seven for each country, up from three.

The new rights under these agreements are available for use by airlines immediately.

Originally Posted by nname

You forget Air North, which is actually beating AC in YVR-YXY, and F8 in YVR-YLW.

I knew about YXY-YVR. Didn't know Air North flew intra-provincial BC from YVR to YYJ/YLW. That's why I didn't mention them. Now I know. Thanks.

[Alexcaban]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Canada expanded its bilateral air agreement with 3 countries last week. Ethiopia, Jordan and Turkiye. A step in the right direction, but mostly underwhelming, quite frankly. Ethiopian Airlines must be disappointed with this. They wanted more than just 2 frequencies, in order to increase YYZ and launch YUL. I think they'll just increase YYZ to daily with this. Let's see what they do. The Turkish rights are just for more all-cargo flights, and RJ will be able to go daily to Canada. Will be interesting to see if they completely split YUL/YYZ ops and fly non stop to YYZ with this news.

https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-c...d-turkiye.html

I knew about YXY-YVR. Didn't know Air North flew intra-provincial BC from YVR to YYJ/YLW. That's why I didn't mention them. Now I know. Thanks.

If I had to guess, we're looking at a split RJ operation, 3x weekly YUL, 4x weekly YYZ.

Sucks for both TK and ET, I personally would have loved to see TK here at YUL daily and ET at 4 weekly would have been a nice addition.

Also noticed YUL/YYZ-KEF with AC are both going 5x weekly on the 7M8.

As well AC pulled the 77W from YUL-BRU to a 789 for S24. Is Brussels Airlines looking to re-launch what never happened? Considering the 77W was full every day this passed summer, seems like a cut in service.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Alexcaban

If I had to guess, we're looking at a split RJ operation, 3x weekly YUL, 4x weekly YYZ.

Sucks for both TK and ET, I personally would have loved to see TK here at YUL daily and ET at 4 weekly would have been a nice addition.

Also noticed YUL/YYZ-KEF with AC are both going 5x weekly on the 7M8.

As well AC pulled the 77W from YUL-BRU to a 789 for S24. Is Brussels Airlines looking to re-launch what never happened? Considering the 77W was full every day this passed summer, seems like a cut in service.

My money is on RJ doing 4x weekly YUL and 3x weekly YYZ. We shall see.

As for BRU, SN only has 9 A330s currently, with a tenth coming online by next summer, which will be used to add service to Nairobi and Kigali in Africa, SN's main international market. So that doesn't leave much room for YUL.

https://press.brusselsairlines.com/b...-haul-aircraft

This being said, on wikipedia it says they will be getting an 11th A330 next year as well, so who knows. Second hand A330s are fairly easy to acquire, so anything is possible.

SN is the only LH Group network carrrier that doesn't currently serve YUL. It would be great if they complete the list.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Pretty good analysis. When AC go rid of their Dash 8-100s and 300s, that spelled the end for a lot of regional routes and/or frequencies out in the east.

I will say however, that AC has more regional partners out east. They interline with PAL, Air Creebec and Pascan, all of which have extensive regional networks in Quebec, the maritimes and/or NL. Granted, Pascan no longer flies out of YUL, so the interline is of limited use, but it still serves the Montreal market through YHU.

Out west, AC only has Central Mountain Air as an interline partner.

One other thing to remember, is that out east, especially Quebec, you have several Inuit/Cree based airlines that provide regional connectivity. Air Inuit is a pretty big outfit in Quebec, and connects Nunavik (northern Quebec) not only internally, but also with YUL and YQB. Canadian North partly accomplishes that role as well, with its YUL-YVP runs. I've already mentioned Air Creebec, another big regional player in Quebec.

So when you factor in all of these regional players, I think things balance out a bit more. BC does have Pacific Coastal, but that's about it. Canadian North, or another Inuit or Cree based airline doesn't fly to BC at all. Like you said, geography helps explain a lot of it, as BC doesn't have Inuit or Cree land or peoples.

Yeah when the DH1s and DH3s were still around, YUL-YQB alone was upwards of 15x/day and YQB itself had intra-Quebec flights.

[nname]

How finally got a chance to look at the full S24 schedule, here are what AC didn't say in the PR - reductions and suspensions!

Suspension:
YYZ-YCD/GND/SVD/POP/AUA
YUL-YMM/YXU/CZM
YVR-BOS
YYC-YQB
YOW-YEG/EWR
YQB-CUN

Big reduction:
YYZ-YMM reduce to 2x weekly mainline from 4x Rouge
YYZ-IAD reduce to 2x daily from 3x
YUL-IAD reduce to 1x daily from 2x

Some increases wasn't mentioned
YYZ/YUL-KEF both to 5x weekly

YUL-BNA was launched as mainline, now becomes express with no frequency change

All suspension was based on my final version of S23 schedule, plus the previous S24 listing. Not sure if any of those routes was already suspended before the end of S23?

[Alexcaban]

YUL-AZS increases to 2 weekly mainline 7M8 from 1 weekly rouge 319.
YUL-YDF rouge 319 from jazz CR9.

[Bourkky]

YUL-CPH 5 weekly 788 from 5 weekly 789
YUL-DUB 3 weekly 788 from 2 weekly 789 + 1 weekly 788
YUL-PLS 1 weekly 7M8 from 1 weekly Rouge 319
YUL-BRU daily 789 from daily 777HD

[Alexcaban]

Originally Posted by Bourkky

YUL-CPH 5 weekly 788 from 5 weekly 789
YUL-DUB 3 weekly 788 from 2 weekly 789 + 1 weekly 788
YUL-PLS 1 weekly 7M8 from 1 weekly Rouge 319
YUL-BRU daily 789 from daily 777HD

That a big cut in service for YUL-BRU, do we know where that 777HD went?

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by Alexcaban

That a big cut in service for YUL-BRU, do we know where that 777HD went?

AC is ramping up Asia through the winter, with a bigger increase coming summer 2024. Hong Kong goes 2x fairly May 1st, I would assume its headed there.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by nname

How finally got a chance to look at the full S24 schedule, here are what AC didn't say in the PR - reductions and suspensions!

Suspension:
YYZ-YCD/GND/SVD/POP/AUA
YUL-YMM/YXU/CZM
YVR-BOS
YYC-YQB
YOW-YEG/EWR
YQB-CUN

Big reduction:
YYZ-YMM reduce to 2x weekly mainline from 4x Rouge
YYZ-IAD reduce to 2x daily from 3x
YUL-IAD reduce to 1x daily from 2x

Some increases wasn't mentioned
YYZ/YUL-KEF both to 5x weekly

YUL-BNA was launched as mainline, now becomes express with no frequency change

All suspension was based on my final version of S23 schedule, plus the previous S24 listing. Not sure if any of those routes was already suspended before the end of S23?

I hope they continue to cut from YOW. More room for carriers who care about serving this city, aka Porter and Air France.

[hollywoodcory]

Some WS changes:

YYC-YLL is being cancelled in April.
YYC-NRT increased to 5x weekly in April (was 3x).

WS really beefing up YYC long haul, especially in Asia.

[hemustbeaboss]

Originally Posted by nname

How finally got a chance to look at the full S24 schedule, here are what AC didn't say in the PR - reductions and suspensions!

Suspension:
YYZ-YCD/GND/SVD/POP/AUA
YUL-YMM/YXU/CZM
YVR-BOS
YYC-YQB
YOW-YEG/EWR
YQB-CUN

Big reduction:
YYZ-YMM reduce to 2x weekly mainline from 4x Rouge
YYZ-IAD reduce to 2x daily from 3x
YUL-IAD reduce to 1x daily from 2x

Some increases wasn't mentioned
YYZ/YUL-KEF both to 5x weekly

YUL-BNA was launched as mainline, now becomes express with no frequency change

All suspension was based on my final version of S23 schedule, plus the previous S24 listing. Not sure if any of those routes was already suspended before the end of S23?

GND and SVD never ran year round. Always been a November to April ish kinda route

[hollywoodcory]

YYC November 2023 Stats:

Domestic: 899,819 +6.3% YTD: 11,752,107 [2019: 880,369]
Transborder: 273,820 +25.6% YTD: 3,305,665 [2019: 275,279]
International: 163,654 +9.9% YTD: 2,007,378 [2019: 136,833]

November 2023 Total: 1,337,293 +10.2% [2019: 1,292,476]

2023 YTD: 17,065,150 +29.23%

Non-US international continues to outpace 2019 by large numbers. Domestic/US are basically on par with 2019.

Guessing YYC will finish the year with 18.3-18.4 million. With everything coming in 2024, be interesting to see how close to 20 million they can get.

[Dominion301]

YOW's November pax stats:

Nov-22 / Nov-23 / % Change
Dom: 228,252 / 231,101 / +1.2% - No F8 domestic flying in November 2023
TB: 27,541 / 54,523 / +98.0%
Int'l: 15,773 / 29,368 / +86.2% - highest ever November count
TTL: 271,566 / 314,992 / +16.0%

Sector / YTD 2022 / YTD 2023 / % Change
Dom: 2,473,267 / 2,967,333 / +20.0%
TB: 152,077 / 503,265 / +230.9%
Int'l: 58,495 / 260,297 / +345.0%
TTL: 2,683,839 / 3,730,895 / +39.0%

12 Months Rolling / % Change vs Year End 2021
Dom: 3,203,065 / +180.0%
TB: 541,523 / +4,717.0%
Int'l: 294,802 / +1,790.1%
TTL: 4,039,390 / +245.0% - first time over 4 million since June 2020

Month-Over-Month Change
Sector / Oct-23 / Nov-23 / % Change
Dom: 300,504 / 231,101 / -23.1%
TB: 45,065 / 54,523 / +21.0%
Int'l: 9,792 / 29,368 / +199.9%
TTL: 355,361 314,992 -11.4%
Avg/Day: 11,463 / 10,500 / -8.4%
% of month's avg daily pax vs full year 2019 = 13,990 = 75.0%
YTD TTL vs YTD 2019 = 79.6%
2019 Avg Nov pax/day: 12,280
% of month's avg daily pax vs the same month in 2019 = 85.5%

[cyeg66]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

With everything coming in 2024, be interesting to see how close to 20 million they can get.

I’ll be surprised to see YYC surpass 2023, let alone get anywhere close to 20 million. Just my opinion. It feels like a ghost town most days compared to past years (pre-2020), if that’s any indication of what’s to come next year.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

YYC November 2023 Stats:

Domestic: 899,819 +6.3% YTD: 11,752,107 [2019: 880,369]
Transborder: 273,820 +25.6% YTD: 3,305,665 [2019: 275,279]
International: 163,654 +9.9% YTD: 2,007,378 [2019: 136,833]

November 2023 Total: 1,337,293 +10.2% [2019: 1,292,476]

2023 YTD: 17,065,150 +29.23%

Non-US international continues to outpace 2019 by large numbers. Domestic/US are basically on par with 2019.

Guessing YYC will finish the year with 18.3-18.4 million. With everything coming in 2024, be interesting to see how close to 20 million they can get.

~9% overall increase will get you to 20 million next year. Think it will happen? I don't know. If AC hadn't gutted YYC, I'd say for sure.

Look at the percentage increase throughout 2023. Obviously going down every month, as 2022 was still impacted by COVID restrictions. November was down to +10%. There is a good likelihood those numbers go even lower in Dec, Jan and Feb, and those numbers will need to increase and average out to at least 9% for YYC to get to 20 million next year.

PD, Flair, Lynx all adding flights will definitely help. It might be close. I think we'll know in the first 6 months or so. If the monthly increase holds strong around 7-8%, you have a fighting chance.

Originally Posted by cyeg66

I’ll be surprised to see YYC surpass 2023, let alone get anywhere close to 20 million. Just my opinion. It feels like a ghost town most days compared to past years (pre-2020), if that’s any indication of what’s to come next year.

You're talking about aircraft movements though, moreso than passenger stats. Movements still haven't caught up to 2019 levels, and that's pretty much anywhere in Canada. Denser aircraft configs, pilot shortages, far less CRJ200/Q100/300, only Q400+, all mean less flights but more passengers per flight. So you might get to 20 mil but still feel it's a snooze fest...

[cyeg66]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Denser aircraft configs, pilot shortages, far less CRJ200/Q100/300, only Q400+, all mean less flights but more passengers per flight. So you might get to 20 mil but still feel it's a snooze fest...

Sure, except those tin cans haven’t been flying, en grand nombre, around YYC for a good few years. I know they do (did) out east to keep up frequencies to smaller stations, but not here. Aside from a few Saab 340s, the vast, vast majority of our movements have been Q400-B738 sized planes for quite some time now. When I say it’s quiet at YYC, it’s in regards to those sized planes. Just ask GW (copycat ) from YUL terminal, who was here last week on a fam. It was deadsville.

[hollywoodcory]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

~9% overall increase will get you to 20 million next year. Think it will happen? I don't know. If AC hadn't gutted YYC, I'd say for sure.

Look at the percentage increase throughout 2023. Obviously going down every month, as 2022 was still impacted by COVID restrictions. November was down to +10%. There is a good likelihood those numbers go even lower in Dec, Jan and Feb, and those numbers will need to increase and average out to at least 9% for YYC to get to 20 million next year.

PD, Flair, Lynx all adding flights will definitely help. It might be close. I think we'll know in the first 6 months or so. If the monthly increase holds strong around 7-8%, you have a fighting chance.

If I wasn't lazy, I'd calculate the comparison to 2019 instead of 2022, given that was the last normal year. I agree 20 million itself is probably out of reach, but will be interesting to see how close they can get. For the first few months of this year, it wasn't expected to surpass the 2019 record.

Additionally I wonder if July/August could even crack 2 million. Both months came in just below this year.

There's also additional international capacity coming from KLM, DE, Edelweiss as well. (I won't count the increase for 4Y since that's replacing AC).

[Dominion301]

AF's seasonal YQB-CDG next year will feature the 472 seat HD 77W: https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/231221-afns24inc. However, Aeroroutes is saying the route is starting 6 weeks later on 14JUN24 (no idea if that's vs last summer or vs what was originally loaded for summer 2024).

YUL-CDG creeping back closer to 4x daily with a frequency bump from 21 to 24 weekly.

[mxg308]

It appears that YOW-CDG is going daily starting October 27th on the 787. Appears bookable on the airfrance website.