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  #301  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2023, 12:40 PM
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This Linked In post suggests increased Porter service to YHZ, YQM and YFC out of YOW.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/porte...member_android
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  #302  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2023, 12:41 PM
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Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
From what I heard when they loaded YUL-ARN in the schedules a couple of months back, AC is adding flights without really checking with ADM if gates are actually available. Not a good sign!

There aren't enough gates (even remote ones) for all these additions. I can guarantee you that. Just like the last 2 summers, if your flight arrives between 4 and 8pm, expect to land and go to the de-ice facility to wait for a gate next summer. And this on a good day ! Now throw in some thunderstorms/IROPS, and shit will start hitting the fan pretty fast !

PD can't build the YHU terminal fast enough ! AC (and ADM) will be extremely happy to see some carriers like WS and F8 move all or some of their ops to YHU, freeing up space for them at YUL.
As inconvenient as Mirabel was, i feel like it was short sighted to close that terminal and tear it down. It was already established and probably better suited for sun flights and low cost carriers. That wouldve freed up a lot of space.
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  #303  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2023, 3:00 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
This Linked In post suggests increased Porter service to YHZ, YQM and YFC out of YOW.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/porte...member_android
Yup along with BOS, EWR, YYC, YEG & YVR.
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  #304  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2023, 5:21 PM
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Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
From what I heard when they loaded YUL-ARN in the schedules a couple of months back, AC is adding flights without really checking with ADM if gates are actually available. Not a good sign!

There aren't enough gates (even remote ones) for all these additions. I can guarantee you that. Just like the last 2 summers, if your flight arrives between 4 and 8pm, expect to land and go to the de-ice facility to wait for a gate next summer. And this on a good day ! Now throw in some thunderstorms/IROPS, and shit will start hitting the fan pretty fast !

PD can't build the YHU terminal fast enough ! AC (and ADM) will be extremely happy to see some carriers like WS and F8 move all or some of their ops to YHU, freeing up space for them at YUL.
I remain perplexed at how the strategy would work out of YHU with the inability to connect to their growing interline/codeshare network there along with not being able to fly internationally from there. Seems like you are just spreading yourself a little thin if you can only offer domestic traffic out of YHU and thus would likely be maintaining ops out of YUL.
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  #305  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2023, 5:54 PM
samuelx88 samuelx88 is offline
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I remain perplexed at how the strategy would work out of YHU with the inability to connect to their growing interline/codeshare network there along with not being able to fly internationally from there. Seems like you are just spreading yourself a little thin if you can only offer domestic traffic out of YHU and thus would likely be maintaining ops out of YUL.
In my opinion they should start by adding flights in YQB before spreading to YHU and use YQB for their intra-quebec flights. Air Transat already has quite a lot of flights there (CDG, LGW, FLL, etc.), same with Pascan with which they interline and seems a better starting point than YHU. Also there's 800k ppl in Québec city.

Also, in the latest AC schedule, YQB-YYC/FLL/CUN/PUJ were completly removed next summer and YQB-YVR is reduced to 4X weekly but now with Mainline 737max instead of Rouge A319.
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  #306  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2023, 7:17 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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Originally Posted by J81 View Post
As inconvenient as Mirabel was, i feel like it was short sighted to close that terminal and tear it down. It was already established and probably better suited for sun flights and low cost carriers. That wouldve freed up a lot of space.
Could've, would've, should've !

ADM has made a lot of poor decisions over the year, and demolishing the terminal at YMX is just one more to add to the list. Demolishing it was the cheapest option, so they chose that. To be fair though, the other option was to convert it to something else, like a convention center. So that wouldn't have solved ADM's issues today either. They never planned to keep the YMX terminal building as a backup.

Also, in their 2013 master plan, ADM grossly underestimated the passenger traffic increase until 2033. They had YUL handling only 18 million passengers by 2023 and 22 million by 2033. ADM is near 22 million now, 10 years ahead of schedule !

Bad planning, from start to finish. This is the result.
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  #307  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2023, 8:18 PM
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Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
Could've, would've, should've !

ADM has made a lot of poor decisions over the year, and demolishing the terminal at YMX is just one more to add to the list. Demolishing it was the cheapest option, so they chose that. To be fair though, the other option was to convert it to something else, like a convention center. So that wouldn't have solved ADM's issues today either. They never planned to keep the YMX terminal building as a backup.

Also, in their 2013 master plan, ADM grossly underestimated the passenger traffic increase until 2033. They had YUL handling only 18 million passengers by 2023 and 22 million by 2033. ADM is near 22 million now, 10 years ahead of schedule !

Bad planning, from start to finish. This is the result.
Clearly! Lol. They made their bed.
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  #308  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2023, 9:40 PM
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Yup along with BOS, EWR, YYC, YEG & YVR.
Yes, I'm sure there's totally a demand for all those.
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  #309  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2023, 11:30 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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Clearly! Lol. They made their bed.
And they're not even trying to address the problem. YUL should be a level 3 slot controlled airport - at the very least in the summer season - due to gate capacity. It isn't.

Only YYZ and YVR are level 3 airports in Canada. YUL, YYC and YQB are level 2. I have no idea why YQB is on there, frankly, but YUL should definitely be a level 3 by now. The fact it isn't is further proof that ADM is either blind to the problem, or unwilling to take the necessary steps to solve it.
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  #310  
Old Posted Dec 16, 2023, 2:19 AM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Yes, I'm sure there's totally a demand for all those.
Not sure why you felt the need to add a sarcastic eye roll. They’re all pretty sensible additions especially with F8 closing their YOW base. The capacity PD is adding at YOW is pretty much restoring summertime capacity on those routes to a bit more than pre-pandemic levels. Even with all these additions, YOW at this point for summer 2024 is still well below overall summer 2019 seat capacity when the airport handled 5.1 million pax and the planned summer 2020 seats would have put 5.3 million passengers through the airport that year.

2024 might recover YOW to 4.7 million if Porter add a few more routes. YYT-YOW would be the most obvious additional summer addition and is one of many former YOW routes that have yet to see service restored on.

PS: since you’re in YVR, why would a second daily PD on YOW-YVR seem excessive when AC are planning to fly the 789 on 1 of 3 dailies on the same route?
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  #311  
Old Posted Dec 16, 2023, 4:12 AM
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Originally Posted by Dominion301 View Post
Not sure why you felt the need to add a sarcastic eye roll. They’re all pretty sensible additions especially with F8 closing their YOW base. The capacity PD is adding at YOW is pretty much restoring summertime capacity on those routes to a bit more than pre-pandemic levels. Even with all these additions, YOW at this point for summer 2024 is still well below overall summer 2019 seat capacity when the airport handled 5.1 million pax and the planned summer 2020 seats would have put 5.3 million passengers through the airport that year.

2024 might recover YOW to 4.7 million if Porter add a few more routes. YYT-YOW would be the most obvious additional summer addition and is one of many former YOW routes that have yet to see service restored on.

PS: since you’re in YVR, why would a second daily PD on YOW-YVR seem excessive when AC are planning to fly the 789 on 1 of 3 dailies on the same route?
Out of all the expansions in flying we’re seeing I’d say PD is the shakiest. As shitty as Flair is their ULCC model will always have a big uptake. Canadians will always go for the cheapest option. The one selling a “nicer experience”
For more money, not so much.

I guess Lynx might be a bit shakier but they’re not expanding by anywhere near as much.
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  #312  
Old Posted Dec 16, 2023, 3:46 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Out of all the expansions in flying we’re seeing I’d say PD is the shakiest. As shitty as Flair is their ULCC model will always have a big uptake. Canadians will always go for the cheapest option. The one selling a “nicer experience”
For more money, not so much.

I guess Lynx might be a bit shakier but they’re not expanding by anywhere near as much.
Fair enough. They certainly are expanding at a blistering pace. At YOW though everything they’ve done thus far has made sense and has merely backfilled for AC, WS and F8 retrenchments. The big question of course is YYZ and if they can be a sustainable #2 to AC with an aircraft that is perfectly suited for YOW but not ideal for YYZ…as the only jet. The A220 is similar in size but that is but 1 of many aircraft types AC operates.
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  #313  
Old Posted Dec 17, 2023, 12:16 AM
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I'm satisfied with Air Canada's YVR additions, nothing spectacular or exotic, just beefing up existing routes (not complaining, just not as momentous as new routes lol). Very happy to see they reinstated double daily service on several Jazz routes that were cut in the downturn. In the old says, Air Canada would fly 37-seat and 50-seat to all these destinations, so frequency was higher, even if capacity was lower. But when you get down to single daily frequency for intra provincial routes, it's a definite loss. I don't fly those routes myself, but I know people in smaller communities will be thrilled at getting the 2nd daily back. Shows a confidence in building up feeder traffic into YVR. I don't have complete facts on hand to back this up, but my perception is YVR is the most connected regionally to smaller cities in their province, and the regional flying appears to be the strongest performing across their domestic network. A lot of this has to do with geography and having difficult driving between many places (mountains, the island, drastic distance between YVR and northern towns, etc.). But it's not just geography; even though Vancouver is the largest, there is a very respectable number of remote cities/towns in BC that do very well for themselves, with strong economies, growing populations, and connectivity with an airline like AC shows that. A lot of major airports have service to the small towns within their province, but it's often on smaller airlines, smaller planes, not served by an airline the size of AC. But the fact that AC serves so many individual airports across the province is impressive. It's just an interesting case study as it shows so much about the service levels to the other major hubs from within their own province, and it's not strong.

For example, on an average Friday in the summer (I chose July 19), from YYZ, AC has 37 intra-Ontario flights to 7 destinations, most on DH4 or similar capacity. The exception being 12/37 are mainline flights to Ottawa, so outside of this the numbers are quite low.

From YVR, they have 45 intra-BC flights to 13 destinations. And it's not dominated by a single major route (ie. YYZ-YOW), there lots of 5+ daily routes like Victoria, Terrace, Kelowna, and many 3-4 daily.

For YUL, they only have 9 intra-Quebec flights, and 5 destinations. Quebec City 5x daily Rouge, and then the other four destinations each one daily. By far the least extensive, basically a YUL-YQB connection, and then the bare minimum 1x daily DH4 on the other four.

Again, this isn't a matter of accomplishment or fault, simply a snapshot of the unique circumstances of AC's 3 main hubs. Geography, history, economics all play a part in regional air connectivity. Arguably YUL has prospered more because there is such a lack of regional travel, it boosts international numbers. They are vastly over-achieving in AC's international network, but not regional. So it's not a trophy prize to have the most regional links, just an interesting delve into what it says about the province's development.

As people speculated for months, but wasn't actually updated until this latest release, is that YVR-YQB is continuing mainline into summer (and presumably indefinitely). As recently as last week, it was still showing as Rouge (which it was last summer). The winter schedule had changed to mainline 737, but summer was still Rouge 319. Now it's 4 weekly 737, so a good bump in seats and quality. It was Rouge's only flight here, so was really not a good fit. Some had speculated the 220 for this route, but it's 737. Of course this also means YYC-YQB is canned, again not sure if that was already confirmed or just assumed? AC gave a couple scraps to YYC for increases: YYC-YEG increased from 3 to 4 daily Jazz, YYC-YWG from one Jazz to one Jazz and one Mainline daily, and Ottawa resuming after just being chopped, basically a very sudden turnaround rather than a legitimate route gain. Still pitiful compared to the Jazz traffic that YYC used to get from all over BC, AB, and SK. And demonstrates that Westjet's growth there isn't fuelling competition and drawing AC back into the game, this update confirmed it. They basically gave them the same increases as they gave YXE, which is a fraction the size. WS's announcement of ICN couldn't be more fitting, flying routes that were once only the domain of Air Canada, and successfully wiping them out from YYC basically. I feel like it was 23 years in the making lol, they were already more dominant but AC kept up a respectable showing despite being pummelled continuously by WS, slowly but surely for almost 25 years. But then the last couple of years were a white flag or FU CYA LATER from Air Canada, they dismantled things so quick. Wild to see, YYC is so lucky to have WS as most cities would really feel the pain from losing a national carrier, and often the gaps in service never recover from losing an airline hub. But YYC was gaining more than losing, so it wasn't a huge loss.
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  #314  
Old Posted Dec 17, 2023, 1:14 AM
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I’m not sure where AC thinks Jazz is going to get the pilots for those route expansions.
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  #315  
Old Posted Dec 17, 2023, 2:31 AM
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I’m not sure where AC thinks Jazz is going to get the pilots for those route expansions.
YUL-ORD 3 daily A220's next summer, was 3x E75
YUL-BOS 2 of 4 daily on the A220, was 4x E75
YUL-YDF 1 daily rouge A319, was CR9
YUL-DFW 1 daily A220, was E75

That frees up frames, that's all I noticed, might be more changes. YUL-LGA always gets a few A220's tossed in for the summer usually added by late February.
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  #316  
Old Posted Dec 17, 2023, 6:29 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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Originally Posted by zahav View Post

For example, on an average Friday in the summer (I chose July 19), from YYZ, AC has 37 intra-Ontario flights to 7 destinations, most on DH4 or similar capacity. The exception being 12/37 are mainline flights to Ottawa, so outside of this the numbers are quite low.

From YVR, they have 45 intra-BC flights to 13 destinations. And it's not dominated by a single major route (ie. YYZ-YOW), there lots of 5+ daily routes like Victoria, Terrace, Kelowna, and many 3-4 daily.

For YUL, they only have 9 intra-Quebec flights, and 5 destinations. Quebec City 5x daily Rouge, and then the other four destinations each one daily. By far the least extensive, basically a YUL-YQB connection, and then the bare minimum 1x daily DH4 on the other four.

Again, this isn't a matter of accomplishment or fault, simply a snapshot of the unique circumstances of AC's 3 main hubs. Geography, history, economics all play a part in regional air connectivity. Arguably YUL has prospered more because there is such a lack of regional travel, it boosts international numbers. They are vastly over-achieving in AC's international network, but not regional. So it's not a trophy prize to have the most regional links, just an interesting delve into what it says about the province's development.
Pretty good analysis. When AC go rid of their Dash 8-100s and 300s, that spelled the end for a lot of regional routes and/or frequencies out in the east.

I will say however, that AC has more regional partners out east. They interline with PAL, Air Creebec and Pascan, all of which have extensive regional networks in Quebec, the maritimes and/or NL. Granted, Pascan no longer flies out of YUL, so the interline is of limited use, but it still serves the Montreal market through YHU.

Out west, AC only has Central Mountain Air as an interline partner.

One other thing to remember, is that out east, especially Quebec, you have several Inuit/Cree based airlines that provide regional connectivity. Air Inuit is a pretty big outfit in Quebec, and connects Nunavik (northern Quebec) not only internally, but also with YUL and YQB. Canadian North partly accomplishes that role as well, with its YUL-YVP runs. I've already mentioned Air Creebec, another big regional player in Quebec.

So when you factor in all of these regional players, I think things balance out a bit more. BC does have Pacific Coastal, but that's about it. Canadian North, or another Inuit or Cree based airline doesn't fly to BC at all. Like you said, geography helps explain a lot of it, as BC doesn't have Inuit or Cree land or peoples.
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  #317  
Old Posted Dec 18, 2023, 1:05 AM
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Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
From what I heard when they loaded YUL-ARN in the schedules a couple of months back, AC is adding flights without really checking with ADM if gates are actually available. Not a good sign!

There aren't enough gates (even remote ones) for all these additions. I can guarantee you that. Just like the last 2 summers, if your flight arrives between 4 and 8pm, expect to land and go to the de-ice facility to wait for a gate next summer. And this on a good day ! Now throw in some thunderstorms/IROPS, and shit will start hitting the fan pretty fast !

PD can't build the YHU terminal fast enough ! AC (and ADM) will be extremely happy to see some carriers like WS and F8 move all or some of their ops to YHU, freeing up space for them at YUL.
Maybe ADM can actually do something about YMX first before relying on PD to build that YHU terminal.

Been repeating YMX need to be developed (since forever) and is a much better option than YHU. The chaos at YUL was predictable. Not for ADM apparently.
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  #318  
Old Posted Dec 18, 2023, 1:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Alexcaban View Post
YUL-ORD 3 daily A220's next summer, was 3x E75
YUL-BOS 2 of 4 daily on the A220, was 4x E75
YUL-YDF 1 daily rouge A319, was CR9
YUL-DFW 1 daily A220, was E75

That frees up frames, that's all I noticed, might be more changes. YUL-LGA always gets a few A220's tossed in for the summer usually added by late February.
True, but then where are the AC pilots coming from without significant feet reductions? Chances are they’re coming from those feeders.
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  #319  
Old Posted Dec 18, 2023, 3:49 AM
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Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
So when you factor in all of these regional players, I think things balance out a bit more. BC does have Pacific Coastal, but that's about it. Canadian North, or another Inuit or Cree based airline doesn't fly to BC at all. Like you said, geography helps explain a lot of it, as BC doesn't have Inuit or Cree land or peoples.
You forget Air North, which is actually beating AC in YVR-YXY, and F8 in YVR-YLW.
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  #320  
Old Posted Dec 18, 2023, 3:08 PM
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From CTV:

Fredericton International Airport

Passenger traffic up 24% over 2022 at YFC.

Its best year ever was in 2019, with over 427,000 passengers. In 2023, the number will be around 330,000.
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