Heavy Rail, Commuter Rail, & Intercity Transportation

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

My hometown? You do not likely know my hometown,and if you did, you would know that for its size, it has great transit.

As far as Aldergrove, if they were to use the old BC rail line to Abbotsford, would there be a stop in Aldergrove?

"Great" is relative. And most people aren't this vehement about something that belongs in the Transit Fantasy thread without some kind of skin in the game.

That's assuming they use the BC rail line at all - we've been over this multiple times. Easier to run a brand new line down the TCH and have a bus line to Aldergrove.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Huh? Are you talking the old Via Dayliner or the commuter rail?

Commuter rail would likely be several trips timed for serving the navy base and serving downtown Victoria...

... Depends on the definition of return on investment.
Lets say it was using the old Talent trains from Ottawa. (the idea was floated.) They seat 135 people. Lets say that each trip it had 90% of the seats full the whole way. That would be a good return on investment. If it had less than 50% for the whole way, then it would be a bad investment. Quick google search, there are at least 4 buses leaving Monday morning after 5am. Typically those buses, if they are single level seat 80 people. That is 62% of the Talent fleet. This does not take into account the Lake Cowichan routes or the Shawnagan routes.

So, They could run 4 Talents right now every half hour for the commuting traffic and the buses would be able to be taken off the Malahat, and you would fill the Talents.

I would say that is pretty good return on investment.

Interestingly, the Bilevel coaches on the WCE hold about 160, so they could use 1 Bilevel coach and an engine and it be full too.

I'm talking about the ICF's actual "document:" they're literally starting out with one train, and then expanding (as you said) to three.
Again, if they're staying in Victoria, that's 1-3 round trips for the day. If it's multiple trips, it's 4.6 hours there and back, so 2WAD with three trains (assuming no layovers) works out to 92 minutes between trains at best. Nowhere close to SkyTrain frequency.

You've confused capacity with ridership. It doesn't matter how many trainsets you scrounge up when the province has run the numbers and determined that only 1,505 people between Courtenay and Victoria will switch and leave their cars at home. Those bi-hourly trains would sit mostly empty.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

"Great" is relative. And most people aren't this vehement about a pipe dream without some kind of skin in the game.

I have no skin in the game. I stand to never benefit from this, ever. Why should I to be able to say it is good or not?

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

That's assuming they use the BC rail line at all - we've been over this multiple times. Easier to run a brand new line down the TCH and have a bus line to Aldergrove.

If they are running a new line all the way to Abbotsford, chances are it isn't going along the TCH. You miss lots of ridership doing that.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

I'm talking about the ICF's actual "document:" they're literally starting out with one train, and then expanding (as you said) to three.
Again, if they're staying in Victoria, that's 1-3 round trips for the day. If it's multiple trips, it's 4.6 hours there and back, so 2WAD with three trains (assuming no layovers) works out to 92 minutes between trains at best. Nowhere close to SkyTrain frequency.

That assumes only 3 trains if it gets to 2WAD. It also assumes no passing sidings. Why not stick to the plan which is not 2WAD?

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

You've confused capacity with ridership. It doesn't matter how many trainsets you scrounge up when the province has run the numbers and determined that only 1,505 people between Courtenay and Victoria will switch and leave their cars at home. Those bi-hourly trains would sit mostly empty.

That is for the old Dayliner service.
The additional service is for commuter service between the Cowichan Valley and Victoria. How many buses each way move commuters from Cowichan Valley to Victoria? Then add the buses that go from Sooke, and Langford area to Victoria express. How many seats is that a day each way?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

I have no skin in the game. I stand to never benefit from this, ever. Why should I to be able to say it is good or not?



If they are running a new line all the way to Abbotsford, chances are it isn't going along the TCH. You miss lots of ridership doing that.

If you don't, there's no need to try and push for a bad plan - just drop it and wait for another 10-15 years when it might be less bad.

If they are running a new line all the way to Abbotsford, chances are they're not using the interurban. Journey's twice as long, costs just as much to build as the TCH and very few will wait an hour or two for Newton-Langley when they can take the SkyTrain.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

That assumes only 3 trains if it gets to 2WAD. It also assumes no passing sidings. Why not stick to the plan which is not 2WAD?

That is for the old Dayliner service.
The additional service is for commuter service between the Cowichan Valley and Victoria. How many buses each way move commuters from Cowichan Valley to Victoria? Then add the buses that go from Sooke, and Langford area to Victoria express. How many seats is that a day each way?

You were the one hoping for 2WAD, not me. The actual plan has even lower frequency than that.

No, it's for the brand new Duncan-Victoria service that you want.
1,505 people a day works out to... about 20 city buses or 26 Greyhounds; most Vancouver routes have even more. So let's do that instead.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

You've confused capacity with ridership. It doesn't matter how many trainsets you scrounge up when the province has run the numbers and determined that only 1,505 people between Courtenay and Victoria will switch and leave their cars at home. Those bi-hourly trains would sit mostly empty.

I counted 4 Duncan based, 2 Shawnigan Lake and at least 7 Victoria buses that could connect to the E&N. Some of them are double decker buses, but for the sake of simplicity, lets say they are all 80 passenger single level transit buses. That means at least 1,040 people use these buses. There is also about 25,000 vehicles traveling the Malahat. It could be imagined 10% of these could come off the highway with a train that runs at about the same time as the cars. Assuming those vehicles are single occupancy, which most likely are not, 10% of 25,000 is 2,500. So, with the Dayliner, we can assume about 5000 people could use this if not higher. That is more than the 2000 people the West Coast Express has.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

If you don't, there's no need to try and push for a bad plan - just drop it and wait for another 10-15 years when it might be less bad.

If they are running a new line all the way to Abbotsford, chances are they're not using the interurban. Journey's twice as long, costs just as much to build as the TCH and very few will wait an hour or two for Newton-Langley when they can take the SkyTrain.

I am a person that is about the community, not selfish about me. So, if a community could benefit from something, even if I never will, I'll still support it. It's called being a good citizen.

I'd expect a new route, if not using the old interurban would be running along the Fraser Highway, not the TCH. In fact, most plans I see show the Fraser Highway to Langley. So, if one day it was extended, goingalong the Fraser highway would make sense.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

You were the one hoping for 2WAD, not me. The actual plan has even lower frequency than that.

No, it's for the brand new Duncan-Victoria service that you want.
1,505 people a day works out to... about 20 city buses or 26 Greyhounds; most Vancouver routes have even more. So let's do that instead.

Actually, if you are listening to the transit circles, they want both the Dayliner restored and commuter service for Duncan South.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

I counted 4 Duncan based, 2 Shawnigan Lake and at least 7 Victoria buses that could connect to the E&N. Some of them are double decker buses, but for the sake of simplicity, lets say they are all 80 passenger single level transit buses. That means at least 1,040 people use these buses. There is also about 25,000 vehicles traveling the Malahat. It could be imagined 10% of these could come off the highway with a train that runs at about the same time as the cars. Assuming those vehicles are single occupancy, which most likely are not, 10% of 25,000 is 2,500. So, with the Dayliner, we can assume about 5000 people could use this if not higher. That is more than the 2000 people the West Coast Express has.

1,505 is not 5,000. And that's assuming all the buses are full. Clearly, the other 3,495 want to drive or ride all the way into Langford/Victoria rather than wait for up to 90+ minutes.

Again, Duncan only has 55 people driving into the city. That's a job for a bus.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

I am a person that is about the community, not selfish about me. So, if a community could benefit from something, even if I never will, I'll still support it. It's called being a good citizen.

I'd expect a new route, if not using the old interurban would be running along the Fraser Highway, not the TCH. In fact, most plans I see show the Fraser Highway to Langley. So, if one day it was extended, goingalong the Fraser highway would make sense.


Actually, if you are listening to the transit circles, they want both the Dayliner restored and commuter service for Duncan South.

And if you were truly selfless, you'd make sure the most people benefit for a given amount of money - the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. That's what our MLAs do, and that's why the money goes to the GVRD and Valley, where the most people are. Even the SFU Gondola is a better deal.

The Fraser Highway has already been widened for the SkyTrain; widening it again would require another 3-5 lanes (because of Transport Canada clearance regs), and to play nice with the viaduct. Neither is an easy sell.

And if you'll actually read the studies, one Dayliner and three Duncan-Victoria trains only gets you that many potential passengers.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

1,505 is not 5,000. And that's assuming all the buses are full. Clearly, the other 3,495 want to drive or ride all the way into Langford/Victoria rather than wait for up to 90+ minutes.

Again, Duncan only has 55 people driving into the city. That's a job for a bus.

And if you were truly selfless, you'd make sure the most people benefit for a given amount of money - the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. That's what our MLAs do, and that's why the money goes to the GVRD and Valley, where the most people are. Even the SFU Gondola is a better deal.

The Fraser Highway has already been widened for the SkyTrain; widening it again would require another 3-5 lanes (because of Transport Canada clearance regs), and to play nice with the viaduct. Neither is an easy sell.

And if you'll actually read the studies, one Dayliner and three Duncan-Victoria trains only gets you that many potential passengers.

You cannot do basic math, I see. Either that, or you cannot understand English.

I will break it down for you. Lets use the following basic stations for the math to make sense: Duncan, Shawnigan Lake, Langford, Dockyard, Victoria. Lets look at the first 3 as where people board the train/bus and the last 2 as their destinations. Lets again assume the buses are the single level 80 passenger buses.

Duncan has 4 buses that leave in the morning for Victoria. That is 320 seats.
Shawnigan Lake has 2 buses. That is 160 seats.
Langford area has 7 Routes. There are multiple buses on each route in the morning. The total number of buses heading to the Dockyard and Victoria would be 20. This does not include the ones that just serve the Langford Exchange. That would be 1600 seats.

This is a total of 26 buses going downtown.

320
160
+1600
-------
2080 seats Right now on the buses.

Add the 1500 to that for the ones that are riding the separate Dayliner service, and you get 3580.

That leaves 1420. They are the potential from the current drivers who make the switch.

If all the trains were the 160 seat Talents, that would mean, ignoring the drivers that might make the switch, you would need 13 trains to match the 26 buses. Since the Talents carry the same as the WCE Bilevels, you would need 13 bilevels. Assuming the same 5 trains a day each way, that would mean 3 bilevels could be used and would cover the buses and potential growth from the drivers. Assuming 3 trains, you could have 5 bilevels - about the same as WCE is running now.

[roger1818]

seats ≠ passengers.

If a bus has 80 seats but only pick up 10 passengers it carried 10 people, not 80.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

You cannot do basic math, I see. Either that, or you cannot understand English.

Heh - right back atcha, buddy.

Once again, capacity =/= ridership. Has it ever occurred to you that some of those buses are half-empty, or that not everybody will take the train over the bus? Because the province has.

When we say the SkyTrain can carry 15,000 pphpd, it actually does carry 15,000 pphpd! But for the E&N, you get four trains - one covering the Dayliner route, three (not five, that's you dreaming out loud) shuttling from Duncan to Victoria West - for a total of 1,505 riders and an average of 376 riders per train. Of all the drivers and bus passengers between Victoria and Courtenay, those are the only ones who'll make the switch.

So save the crap about 800 seats like the WCE, because 424 of them will be empty and useless. Just like your newest line of argument.

Originally Posted by roger1818

seats ≠ passengers.

If a bus has 80 seats but only pick up 10 passengers it carried 10 people, not 80.

Best of luck, I've been trying all afternoon.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by roger1818

seats ≠ passengers.

If a bus has 80 seats but only pick up 10 passengers it carried 10 people, not 80.

Very true, but if it was that low, it would have been canceled a long time ago.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Heh - right back atcha, buddy.

Once again, capacity =/= ridership. Has it ever occurred to you that some of those buses are half-empty, or that not everybody will take the train over the bus? Because the province has.

When we say the SkyTrain can carry 15,000 pphpd, it actually does carry 15,000 pphpd! But for the E&N, you get four trains - one covering the Dayliner route, three (not five, that's you dreaming out loud) shuttling from Duncan to Victoria West - for a total of 1,505 riders and an average of 376 riders per train. Of all the drivers and bus passengers between Victoria and Courtenay, those are the only ones who'll make the switch.

So save the crap about 800 seats like the WCE, because 424 of them will be empty and useless. Just like your newest line of argument.



Best of luck, I've been trying all afternoon.

Show me the ridership for these routes then.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Show me the ridership for these routes then.

Which ones, and why? As the only one convinced this thing can work, the burden of proof is on you. I've already showed you projected ridership for the E&N.

But I'll start you off anyway: Route 44 from Duncan to Victoria gets 68 riders a day on the weekends. That's roughly 34 out of your 320 morning spaces.

[Changing City]

I'm reluctant to break up the 'dialogue', but here are a few numbers to inform the debate. There are, indeed four buses a day travelling from Duncan to Victoria in the morning, and back again in the afternoon. The Duncan Commuter route 66 leaves at 5.32am 5.55, 6.10 and 6.25. The return buses are more spread out, leaving at 3.45, 4.10, 4.45 and 5.15. The subsidized fare is $10 each way.

The route has run since 2008. Today it uses the Nova Bus LFS Suburban designed for longer commuter routes equipped with high-back seating for up to 49. It clearly carries more Duncan residents who have business in Victoria, rather than only commuters. The 2012 Transit Plan shows for the return journey the 3.45 bus saw an average of 41 passengers, the 4.15 27 passengers, the 4.45 25 passengers and the 5.15 just 12 passengers. That's a total of 105 passengers heading back to Duncan. The morning riders are apparently more evenly spread over the four buses.

The 2006 census showed 60 Duncan residents working in Victoria, 55 of them driving. 1,160 Duncan residents drove, and 30 took transit, (but none to Victoria). The 2016 census profile showed 45 Duncan residents traveling to work by transit and 1,170 driving.

So a few things I noted: the $10 fare attracted only just over 100 people taking the #66 buses (and even if it's more today, no more than 200). The buses leave Duncan early, but at least there are four times to chose from, and coming back from Victoria there's even greater flexibility. One train a day would seem to be a downgrade of the current options - miss the train; you're stuck, which would seem likely to attract fewer passengers, not more. (That's ignoring the significant capital costs needed to establish the service). The existing service could easily be improved, with an extra bus or two. The service would be ideal for the introduction of e-buses, which could travel the entire route out and back on one charge, and then recharge overnight.

There are other buses on the route; the 44 also travels between the two cities, but slightly slower. That has the same fare, and three buses a day at more convenient times (and on Saturday too).

[MIPS]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Besides, do we want to emulate GO Transit the way it encourages car dependent sprawl?

Wasn't the purpose of Scott Road Station to specifically be a place you and others could park their car and take the train in as to avoid inner-city congestion?

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by MIPS

Wasn't the purpose of Scott Road Station to specifically be a place you and others could park their car and take the train in as to avoid inner-city congestion?

And I was under the impression Scott Road, along with Coquitlam are considered some of the worst (subjective) stations. I'd prefer if our transit infrastructure added economic productivity and growth to the land around it, not suck it into a black hole.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Changing City

I'm reluctant to break up the 'dialogue', but here are a few numbers to inform the debate. There are, indeed four buses a day travelling from Duncan to Victoria in the morning, and back again in the afternoon. The Duncan Commuter route 66 leaves at 5.32am 5.55, 6.10 and 6.25. The return buses are more spread out, leaving at 3.45, 4.10, 4.45 and 5.15. The heavily subsidized fare is $2.25, apparently lowered after the initial $8 fare attracted very few riders.

The route has run since 2008. Today it uses the Nova Bus LFS Suburban designed for longer commuter routes equipped with high-back seating for up to 49. It clearly carries more Duncan residents who have business in Victoria, rather than only commuters. The 2012 Transit Plan shows for the return journey the 3.45 bus saw an average of 41 passengers, the 4.15 27 passengers, the 4.45 25 passengers and the 5.15 just 12 passengers. That's a total of 105 passengers heading back to Duncan. The morning riders are apparently more evenly spread over the four buses.

The 2006 census showed 60 Duncan residents working in Victoria, 55 of them driving. 1,160 Duncan residents drove, and 30 took transit, (but none to Victoria). The 2016 census profile showed 45 Duncan residents traveling to work by transit and 1,170 driving.

So a few things I noted: the fare is absurdly cheap, and even then only just over 100 people apparently take the #66 buses. The buses leaves Duncan early, but at least there are four times to chose from, and coming back from Victoria there's even greater flexibility. A higher fare would probably just see more people switching to driving (or catching a ride). A train fare of $11 (as ICF suggest) would almost certainly not attract all of the current bus passengers, and one train a day would seem to be a downgrade of the current options - miss the train; you're stuck. (That's ignoring the huge capital costs needed to establish the service). The existing service could easily be improved, with an extra bus or two. The service would be ideal for the introduction of e-buses, which could travel the entire route out and back on one charge, and then recharge overnight.

There are other buses on the route; the 44 also travels between the two cities, but slightly slower. That has the same fare, and three buses a day at more convenient times (and on Saturday too).

2012? You mean 10 years ago? What about 2019 or even 2020/2021? Chances are ridership grew. Otherwise, they would have reduced the numbers.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

2012? You mean 10 years ago? What about 2019 or even 2020/2021? Chances are ridership grew. Otherwise, they would have reduced the numbers.

That's the most recent I can find. If you think they exist, you find more recent numbers. The Nova suburbans are the ones they still run today, so a maximum of 196 seats. It's likely ridership dropped off a cliff in 2020/21 as it did on every transit system.

Here's a quote from the 2021 Cowichan Valley Regional Council report on transit

"Commuter Service
As a result of COVID-19, ridership on the commuter has decreased more significantly than both the custom and conventional service. BCT and CVRD Transit will continue to monitor ridership levels, but at this time, no expansions are proposed.

Note that the fare isn't standard fare on the 44 and 66, it's $10. Total revenue on transit in the Cowichan Valley (CVRD) dropped from $597,007 in 2019 to $377,368 in 2020, and wasn't expected to rise in 2021. The transit operations cost $3.2m in 2019, and pretty much the same in 2020, so even bus service is heavily subsidized.

And I hadn't appreciated that several of the First Nations that the tracks run through are already trying to get the land back, arguing that the rail service has been abandoned. That seems likely to be a factor in the Province standing back and letting the courts decide.

[Migrant_Coconut]

At any rate, it's a fairly pointless thing to be arguing about when the one person who could sign off on building and running it... ain't interested.

Premier John Horgan doubts return of Island rail service is achievable

link

Premier John Horgan isn’t confident the vision for the Island Corridor is achievable as the deadline for restoring the rail line looms.

After he was elected as an MLA in 2005, Horgan said one of his first meetings was with Langford Mayor Stew Young about restoring the railway, but now the province has been behind on the project for more than a decade.

“I don’t have any hope to offer today, because the cost of providing a service just from the West Shore into Victoria is profound,” Horgan said during a press event on Wednesday (Aug. 4).

He added there are other issues that would make commuter rail less viable. For example, when the Johnson Street Bridge was rebuilt, the railway tracks were removed, meaning passenger rail would have to stop in Esquimalt.

Horgan also noted the federal government’s lack of support has slowed things down.

“I think we have a challenge in that the federal government – and I’m not dumping on them – they responded to a call from communities on the Island and First Nations on the Island to get back that corridor for transportation purposes. Unfortunately, the federal government said here’s your corridor, and then they left...”

[SpongeG]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Langford is growing a lot faster, is closer, and car traffic is already clogged in that corridor.

there are also more road options between Sidney and Victoria, Langford and Victoria is a bottleneck as there is really only the TCH to get into Victoria, plus that route has to handle all the traffic from up island. The improvements in recent years have helped but during rush hour it was still pretty bad.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Changing City

And I hadn't appreciated that several of the First Nations that the tracks run through are already trying to get the land back, arguing that the rail service has been abandoned. That seems likely to be a factor in the Province standing back and letting the courts decide.

Clarification: Victoria has eighteen months as of September 2021 to decide whether or not they're going ahead with a rail line, otherwise a segment between Nanaimo and Parksville is returned by court order to the Snaw-Naw-As/Nanoose reservation. Before and after March 2023, the rest of it's free to sit there and gather weeds for the rest of eternity (at least until the Cowichan or Esquimalt make a claim).

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Clarification: Victoria has eighteen months as of September 2021 to decide whether or not they're going ahead with a rail line, otherwise a segment between Nanaimo and Parksville is returned by court order to the Snaw-Naw-As/Nanoose reservation. Before and after March 2023, the rest of it's free to sit there and gather weeds for the rest of eternity (at least until the Cowichan or Esquimalt make a claim).

Isn't it Ottawa that has to decide? (And three other first nations, including the Cowichan, tried to get their land in 2016, so would probably try again?)