Heavy Rail, Commuter Rail, & Intercity Transportation

[Migrant_Coconut]

Density map of Metro Victoria:

Seems like rail proponents are going in the wrong direction; Victoria-Sidney seems just as viable as Langford (i.e. not really, but we're deep into fantasyland anyway, so what the hell).

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Density map of Metro Victoria:

Seems like rail proponents are going in the wrong direction; Victoria-Sidney seems just as viable as Langford (i.e. not really, but we're deep into fantasyland anyway, so what the hell).

Since we're knees deep in fantasy land, I think it would be pretty cool if there was a rapid transit connection along the Langford - Esquimalt - Victoria - UVic corridor and the Victoria - Saanich - Sidney/YYJ - Schwartz Bay corridor. I think in theory Victoria isn't too small for this to be viable, but the pragmatic, optimising, and slightly selfish Lower Mainlander in me knows that that transit money is better spent on the UBC Broadway budget.

[WarrenC12]

Langford is growing a lot faster, is closer, and car traffic is already clogged in that corridor.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Density map of Metro Victoria:

Seems like rail proponents are going in the wrong direction; Victoria-Sidney seems just as viable as Langford (i.e. not really, but we're deep into fantasyland anyway, so what the hell).

That shows current density. Show density in 10 or 20 years. Langford is growing like stink, Sidney isn't.

[cganuelas1995]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Langford is growing a lot faster, is closer, and car traffic is already clogged in that corridor.

Rapidbus time

[djmk]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Density map of Metro Victoria:

Seems like rail proponents are going in the wrong direction; Victoria-Sidney seems just as viable as Langford (i.e. not really, but we're deep into fantasyland anyway, so what the hell).

And Langford does not get the ferry traffic.

Tourists would use this

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by djmk

And Langford does not get the ferry traffic.

Tourists would use this

Not just tourists - One day in the future this could maybe justify a rapid transit link to Tsawwassen.

Imagine Downtown Vancouver - Downtown Victoria by public transit (instead of booking and waiting for a $$$ Harbour Air ticket)

[Migrant_Coconut]

Let's not get carried away; Tsawwassen's the same distance from downtown as Swartz Bay, but it's also got two rivers and no direct route in. Victoria-Sidney "simply" needs to follow Highway 17 into Saanich.

Originally Posted by chowhou

Since we're knees deep in fantasy land, I think it would be pretty cool if there was a rapid transit connection along the Langford - Esquimalt - Victoria - UVic corridor and the Victoria - Saanich - Sidney/YYJ - Schwartz Bay corridor. I think in theory Victoria isn't too small for this to be viable, but the pragmatic, optimising, and slightly selfish Lower Mainlander in me knows that that transit money is better spent on the UBC Broadway budget.

Heck, go waist deep and dig a tunnel under downtown Victoria for an extra billion or two - now it's one big corridor!

And after UBC comes Hastings, Willingdon and the North Shore, and they'll hog the budget until at least 2040. That said, Langford might be big enough by then.

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Langford is growing a lot faster, is closer, and car traffic is already clogged in that corridor.

Originally Posted by CanSpice

That shows current density. Show density in 10 or 20 years. Langford is growing like stink, Sidney isn't.

Except they're building out, not up; doesn't matter how many people you have if they're all outside the catchment area. Yeah, Langford's growing faster, but they need a lot more TOD around the future stations if they want a stronger business case.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

If you're referring to my comment about rapid transit in Horsefly, BC, that's not a "strawman", it's reductio ad absurdum. In this case, though, I'm not trying to prove that the principle of using rapid transit to reduce car dependency is false, merely that it is not always applicable to every situation.

No, you are being pedantic.

Originally Posted by casper

When they did the O-train in Ottawa there one "commercial" customer on the line, the NRC. Provision was made to run freight trains over night should they be required. Not certain there were ever any but something similar could be done here. I would be surprised to see any freight movement on that stretch of line into Victoria.

The closest freight gets is Duncan. There is no reason it could not be scheduled to work with the potential passenger service.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Joke's on you - don't even drive. Can YOU admit that you have no idea what value for money is?

The SkyTrain comes every two minutes. The Island Express would come every two hours. Hardly transformative. The $700-800 million potentially spent by the province on this would be better off going to an actual SkyTrain.

2 hours? You definitely do not know what is being proposed.

Enjoy your walk in Horsefly.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

If you want your hometown to have a viable train, it needs at least 300k more people and a connection to a SkyTrain in Victoria. Until then, forget it.

No, aberdeen is correct. For 1,505 riders a day, Duncan might as well be Horsefly.

Where is the nearest metro area of over 100,000 to those 2 communities?

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Density map of Metro Victoria:

Seems like rail proponents are going in the wrong direction; Victoria-Sidney seems just as viable as Langford (i.e. not really, but we're deep into fantasyland anyway, so what the hell).

Hmmm.... no Duncan on there, and also, no railway on there for reference. Maybe while you are at it, post the density of Horsefly.

Originally Posted by cganuelas1995

Rapidbus time

Fine, tear up the tracks and make the line a rapid bus line. Move all express buses on it as well.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

No, you are being pedantic...


...2 hours? You definitely do not know what is being proposed.

Enjoy your walk in Horsefly.


Where is the nearest metro area of over 100,000 to those 2 communities?

No, you don't understand how analogies work.

Neither do you. The Foundation wants one train going from Victoria to Duncan (page 38): 62 km is 2.3 hours at WCE speed (55 km/h), but wait, it has to go both ways, so it's actually 4.6 hours, there and back. Enjoy waiting for the next one, sucker.

There's less than a hundred people heading to either metro: 35 commute to Victoria, and 20 to Langford, and IDK how many Horsefly residents drive to Kamloops. So neither one gets a train.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Hmmm.... no Duncan on there, and also, no railway on there for reference. Maybe while you are at it, post the density of Horsefly.

Fine, tear up the tracks and make the line a rapid bus line. Move all express buses on it as well.

Doesn't need to be, you can do the numbers yourself: Duncan has a "city" density of 9.89 people/acre, and an "urban" density of 4.33, so it looks like Goldstream, and we can already see the density of all the villages between it and Metro Victoria. Too much of an insignificant backwater too far away to justify a train, just like Horsefly.

Or just run the buses on the highway that's already there and be done with it.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

No, you don't understand how analogies work.

Neither do you. The Foundation wants one train going from Victoria to Duncan (page 38): 62 km is 2.3 hours at WCE speed (55 km/h), but wait, it has to go both ways, so it's actually 4.6 hours, there and back. Enjoy waiting for the next one, sucker.

There's less than a hundred people heading to either metro: 35 commute to Victoria, and 20 to Langford, and IDK how many Horsefly residents drive to Kamloops. So neither one gets a train.

The WCE doesn't even do that. They go to Waterfront, stay the day then come back to Mission. From everyone with the Island Rail Corridor Foundation I have talked to, that is what they would want as a minimum. To come from Duncan in the morning to Victoria.The trains would stay there till the evening, and then go back to Duncan to be stored there overnight. The goalwould be to eventually run 2WAD service.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Doesn't need to be, you can do the numbers yourself: Duncan has a "city" density of 9.89 people/acre, and an "urban" density of 4.33, so it looks like Goldstream, and we can already see the density of all the villages between it and Metro Victoria. Too much of an insignificant backwater too far away to justify a train, just like Horsefly.

Or just run the buses on the highway that's already there and be done with it.

Sounds to me like either you have never been up island before, or you need better glasses. If you have been up island before and have seen the communities north of the Malahat section, please see your trusted optometrist for an update to your prescription.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

That shows current density. Show density in 10 or 20 years. Langford is growing like stink, Sidney isn't.

Is it sprawling or densifying. Sprawl doesn’t increase the density, it increases size of the lowest density areas and car dependent suburbs aren’t going to use a train that they need to drive to as much as a dense, walkable neighbourhood that has the station within walking distance will.

Besides, do we want to emulate GO Transit the way it encourages car dependent sprawl?

• Video Link

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Sounds to me like either you have never been up island before, or you need better glasses. If you have been up island before and have seen the communities north of the Malahat section, please see your trusted optometrist for an update to your prescription.

You have a normal human bias - you trust your personal experience more than data and it's understandable and lots of people do it, but it's a faulty way to see the world and gets in the way of making data driven policy decisions. You can "see" and "feel like" there is lots of potential ridership in Duncan or around Shawnigan Lake, and any feasibility study or ridership study or cost benefit analysis isn't going to sway you on this, but this is the same line of reasoning for people who believe in Fraser Valley passenger rail along the existing RoW, the same line of reasoning for people who believe the DTES can be fixed by just making the junkies quit cold turkey, and the same line of reasoning for people who believe Trump won 2020. It's the epitome of feels over reals.

Do you think the government is lying to you when they say it's not worth doing?

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Is it sprawling or densifying. Sprawl doesn’t increase the density, it increases size of the lowest density areas and car dependent suburbs aren’t going to use a train that they need to drive to as much as a dense, walkable neighbourhood that has the station within walking distance will.

Besides, do we want to emulate GO Transit the way it encourages car dependent sprawl?

• Video Link

The peninsula would be ripe for some sort of rail. The challenge is the lack of corridor to use. With the way the land is, I can see more densificationof the communities there. Ideally, a government entity should set up a plan and bylaws to create the density desired.

Originally Posted by chowhou

You have a normal human bias - you trust your personal experience more than data and it's understandable and lots of people do it, but it's a faulty way to see the world and gets in the way of making data driven policy decisions. You can "see" and "feel like" there is lots of potential ridership in Duncan or around Shawnigan Lake, and any feasibility study or ridership study or cost benefit analysis isn't going to sway you on this, but this is the same line of reasoning for people who believe in Fraser Valley passenger rail along the existing RoW, the same line of reasoning for people who believe the DTES can be fixed by just making the junkies quit cold turkey, and the same line of reasoning for people who believe Trump won 2020. It's the epitome of feels over reals.

Do you think the government is lying to you when they say it's not worth doing?

Yes, I think the government is lying to us. Well, it isn't a lie, but more a redirect.

Right now, they are focused on Vancouver and the Lower Mainland. There is a high need for rail transit in that area that the government would rather put the money there than anywhere else. The problem with that thinking is that too much focus on one area means they are ignoring low cost elsewhere to solve existing problems.

I have looked at several studies as far as costs to improve transportation between the CRD and Shawnigan Lake and north. I have looked at the growth up island as well. In short, right now is the cheapest time to get this line active. Notice how the costs to build the Skytrain per km has gone up with each phase they do? Same is true with getting the E&N running. The sooner it is done, the cheaper it will be.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

The WCE doesn't even do that. They go to Waterfront, stay the day then come back to Mission. From everyone with the Island Rail Corridor Foundation I have talked to, that is what they would want as a minimum. To come from Duncan in the morning to Victoria.The trains would stay there till the evening, and then go back to Duncan to be stored there overnight. The goalwould be to eventually run 2WAD service.

Sounds to me like either you have never been up island before, or you need better glasses. If you have been up island before and have seen the communities north of the Malahat section, please see your trusted optometrist for an update to your prescription.

Even better then - it'd start out with one trip a day, and then slowly branch out to bi-hourly headways. In order to see a SkyTrain-like transformation, you need SkyTrain level service, and that clearly isn't happening.

What I do see is that you've acknowledged the low density numbers as legit, but you don't want to admit that your hometown sucks transit-wise, so you have to fall back on nostalgia and ad hominems. Like it or not, Duncan has a population and density on par with Aldergrove, and it's just as far away from the nearest downtown. That's a very hard place to justify a train to even with existing track.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Yes, I think the government is lying to us. Well, it isn't a lie, but more a redirect.

Right now, they are focused on Vancouver and the Lower Mainland. There is a high need for rail transit in that area that the government would rather put the money there than anywhere else. The problem with that thinking is that too much focus on one area means they are ignoring low cost elsewhere to solve existing problems.

I have looked at several studies as far as costs to improve transportation between the CRD and Shawnigan Lake and north. I have looked at the growth up island as well. In short, right now is the cheapest time to get this line active. Notice how the costs to build the Skytrain per km has gone up with each phase they do? Same is true with getting the E&N running. The sooner it is done, the cheaper it will be.

Or it's because Vancouver and the Lower Mainland are the only places where rail gives them a decent return on investment.

SkyTrain costs $3-4 billion a line, but it gets 100 thousand riders/day within months. The full E&N costs $700 million... for 1.5 thousand riders. That make the SkyTrain 13x more worth it unless the Foundation ditches everything north of Langford.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Is it sprawling or densifying. Sprawl doesn’t increase the density, it increases size of the lowest density areas and car dependent suburbs aren’t going to use a train that they need to drive to as much as a dense, walkable neighbourhood that has the station within walking distance will.

Technically you could put parkades beside Langford's station/s and boost ridership that way, but it's much less effective than TOD for all parties involved. I believe others have pointed out how GO park & rides don't really change commuting patterns.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Or it's because Vancouver and the Lower Mainland are the only places where rail gives them a decent return on investment.

SkyTrain costs $3-4 billion a line, but it gets 100 thousand riders/day within months. The full E&N costs $700 million... for 1.5 thousand riders. That make the SkyTrain 13x more worth it unless the Foundation ditches everything north of Langford.

Also note how hard it has been to pry money out of the government for the UBC extension and North Shore SkyTrain, when they both have extremely compelling business cases.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Also note how hard it has been to pry money out of the government for the UBC extension and North Shore SkyTrain, when they both have extremely compelling business cases.

Too busy spending it on Toronto: they've blown through $13 billion on one train line, and now they'll blow through $11 billion on another, while simultaneously preparing to blow through $14 billion on commuter rail. Even then, they'll still have the balls to ask for more from the feds... and they'll probably get it.

$38 billion could pay for all of Transport 2050 all at once. Oh well. Guess Vancouver needs to get bigger too.

[Dave2]

> The closest freight gets is Duncan.

FWIW freight hasn’t gone to Duncan since 2014. The only freight on the E&N since 2014 is a two or three times per week train from Wellcox to Superior Propane in northern Namaimo.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Even better then - it'd start out with one trip a day, and then slowly branch out to bi-hourly headways. In order to see a SkyTrain-like transformation, you need SkyTrain level service, and that clearly isn't happening.

Huh? Are you talking the old Via Dayliner or the commuter rail?

Commuter rail would likely be several trips timed for serving the navy base and serving downtown Victoria.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

What I do see is that you've acknowledged the low density numbers as legit, but you don't want to admit that your hometown sucks transit-wise, so you have to fall back on nostalgia and ad hominems. Like it or not, Duncan has a population and density on par with Aldergrove, and it's just as far away from the nearest downtown. That's a very hard place to justify a train to even with existing track.

My hometown? You do not likely know my hometown,and if you did, you would know that for its size, it has great transit.

As far as Aldergrove, if they were to use the old BC rail line to Abbotsford, would there be a stop in Aldergrove?

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Or it's because Vancouver and the Lower Mainland are the only places where rail gives them a decent return on investment.

SkyTrain costs $3-4 billion a line, but it gets 100 thousand riders/day within months. The full E&N costs $700 million... for 1.5 thousand riders. That make the SkyTrain 13x more worth it unless the Foundation ditches everything north of Langford.

Depends on the definition of return on investment.
Lets say it was using the old Talent trains from Ottawa. (the idea was floated.) They seat 135 people. Lets say that each trip it had 90% of the seats full the whole way. That would be a good return on investment. If it had less than 50% for the whole way, then it would be a bad investment. Quick google search, there are at least 4 buses leaving Monday morning after 5am. Typically those buses, if they are single level seat 80 people. That is 62% of the Talent fleet. This does not take into account the Lake Cowichan routes or the Shawnagan routes.

So, They could run 4 Talents right now every half hour for the commuting traffic and the buses would be able to be taken off the Malahat, and you would fill the Talents.

I would say that is pretty good return on investment.

Interestingly, the Bilevel coaches on the WCE hold about 160, so they could use 1 Bilevel coach and an engine and it be full too.

https://www.google.ca/maps/dir/Duncan,+B...d48.4284207!2m3!6e0!7e2!8j1661144400!3e3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cowichan_Valley_Regional_Transit_System

Originally Posted by Dave2

> The closest freight gets is Duncan.

FWIW freight hasn’t gone to Duncan since 2014. The only freight on the E&N since 2014 is a two or three times per week train from Wellcox to Superior Propane in northern Namaimo.

I thought Top Feed was served by rail. I guess they stopped that service.