Heavy Rail, Commuter Rail, & Intercity Transportation

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Well, if TransLink negotiated to buy the tracks (which I think you were suggesting) then they wouldn't still be freight tracks owned by CP.

There is zero chance of that happening. The only thing Translink can do is negotiate for terms to access to the tracks.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

There is zero chance of that happening. The only thing Translink can do is negotiate for terms to access to the tracks.

I agree, and I can't see them being willing to make the tracks any more available than they do at the moment. And potentially I could see them saying 'sorry, we need to use them more'.

I also can't see expanded service, if it was theoretically possible, being anything more than a huge additional financial liability.

[swimmer_spe]

This current thread was about putting WCE style service on VI. The interesting thing is, the problems with the WCE does not exist on the Island.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

I don't think it is a waste. I think that it has been ignored so that others will think it is a waste enough to cancel it.

Again, there's a reason why it's been ignored: not enough potential ridership.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

So, the only reason the E&N should be rebuilt is if there is a high population for it?
Unlike the WCE, the line on VI is seldom used for freight. In fact, south of Duncan it is not used at all. That means the line would not be at the mercy of some freight carrier to run passenger service at times that actually suit the ridership.

The thing about the Malahat is that there is no reasonable detour. Think of it more like the highway to Whistler. Close it between Whistler and Squamish. Yes, you can around it, but it is a long way to it.

Governments don't give away free money (at least not without bribes or a lot of clout, both of which Larry Stevenson lacks). You need an actual business case to guarantee a return on investment, otherwise the money goes somewhere else - a train to Squamish and Whistler doesn't have a business case, and the Island Corridor definitely doesn't have a business case.

When half the highway closes, you just put up with it; if the whole highway closes, you stay home. That's life in the sticks. I don't see Tofino or 100 Mile House asking for a train to nowhere.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

This current thread was about putting WCE style service on VI. The interesting thing is, the problems with the WCE does not exist on the Island.

The problems of freight using the tracks don't exist, you're correct. The problem of a potentially expensive service for limited ridership still exists, and there will be additional costs of getting the tracks back to serviceable standard for a passenger service (and the necessary capital for railcars).

WCE really isn't a helpful comparison, and has its own issues, as has been noted, again.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Again, there's a reason why it's been ignored: not enough potential ridership.

What is enough?

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Governments don't give away free money (at least not without bribes or a lot of clout, both of which Larry Stevenson lacks). You need an actual business case to guarantee a return on investment, otherwise the money goes somewhere else - a train to Squamish and Whistler doesn't have a business case, and the Island Corridor definitely doesn't have a business case.

When half the highway closes, you just put up with it; if the whole highway closes, you stay home. That's life in the sticks. I don't see Tofino or 100 Mile House asking for a train.

The problem is that section between Shawinagan Lake to Duncan is no longer the sticks. They have become bedroom communities. So, that means that people cannot go to work or come home after work.

Originally Posted by Changing City

The problems of freight using the tracks don't exist, you're correct. The problem of a potentially expensive service for limited ridership still exists, and there will be additional costs of getting the tracks back to serviceable standard for a passenger service (and the necessary capital for railcars).

WCE really isn't a helpful comparison, and has its own issues, as has been noted, again.

So, what would be a good comparison?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

What is enough?

The problem is that section between Shawinagan Lake to Duncan is no longer the sticks. They have become bedroom communities. So, that means that people cannot go to work or come home after work.

Definitely not ~1,500 boardings a day. At least 4x that number before Victoria even thinks about it.

Duncan has a population of 5,047. Aldergrove has more people. It's the freaking sticks. Maybe they should focus on having more than one London Drugs before they think about passenger rail... and maybe living all the way over in Duncan and commuting into Victoria is a really dumb idea. It's not like Langford doesn't exist.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Definitely not ~1,500 boardings a day. At least 4x that number before Victoria even thinks about it.

Duncan has a population of 5,047. Aldergrove has more people. It's the freaking sticks. Maybe they should focus on having more than one London Drugs before they think about passenger rail... and maybe living all the way over in Duncan and commuting into Victoria is a really dumb idea. It's not like Langford doesn't exist.

Ok. so, what do you suggest the province does to provide a second route for people to use if the Malahat is closed?

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by scryer

Just so that I'm clear: the reason I suggested to look at (not implement!) extending the operating hours was to see if it was feasible to increase ridership on the WCE.

Nothing will be done about the WCE without a case study. And the ownership of the tracks will be a HUGE talking point when the time comes.

And I assume that nothing will be done seriously about improving the WCE until after SLS and the Broadway extensions as those will take priority for the region, understandably so.

And let me be clear that I think the WCE is a very valuable service. If possible, the service should be improved and expanded. However, my issue with any talk of improving service is that transit funding is a zero sum game. If BC could subsidize transit to the degree it subsidizes roads I think WCE could be improved with a dedicated ROW AND we could build the train out to Abbotsford AND we could build a North Shore and UBC Skytrain line right now AND we could build a False Creek streetcar AND we could add BRT lines all across the lower mainland to feed those new and improved train lines.

Unfortunately, there is not sufficient transit funding for that. And unfortunately for the residents of Pomo, Poco, Maple Ridge, Mission, and the other communities served by the WCE the business case for improving the WCE is far weaker than the business case for the rest of Translink's big capital projects that were detailed in Transport 2050. Now, if we're talking about Translink needing to provide similar levels of service in all cities to fulfill its mandate that is a whole different discussion. But just know that the bang for your buck will be much higher investing in transit projects in Vancouver or Surrey than in Mission or Maple Ridge.

If these cities think improved transit connections to Metro Vancouver are vital, I think Translink will want to see ridership numbers improve drastically before any improvements are made. And for that to happen, the built form of those cities will need to change dramatically. I did a quick sum of Mission, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, Coquitlam, Poco, and Pomo. Per the 2016 census the cities have a combined population of 380,450, which is significant, but the weighted-average population density is just 993.7 / square km (Vancouver is 5,800 / square km). Maybe if all of those cities had the density of Poco (2,009.4 / square km) more people would rely on transit and ride the WCE. And perhaps with higher ridership a dedicated ROW would make sense. But it's just reality that almost all of Translink's planned capital projects will serve more people than the WCE will for the foreseeable future.

I think your Toronto and GO examples are different for a few reasons. First of all, Toronto has a much larger downtown so it will naturally draw more people in total. So even if the same percentage of people in the cities served by the WCE commuted by train as the people in Kitchener do, the WCE would still see significantly lower ridership. Kitchener has 240k people on its own, Guelph adds 135k, and Brampton adds 600k. You would be hard pressed to find any Go lines which serve a smaller population base than the WCE does.

Second, the location of Waterfront within Vancouver compared to the location of Union Station within Toronto is very different. If someone works at UBC or along Broadway or in the industrial areas along the Fraser, taking the WCE makes very little sense because Waterfront is not on the way from Mission to those locations. That makes Waterfront a pretty big detour. Whereas if someone lives in Kitchener and works in Harbourfront or Yorkville or Midtown they probably would drive along the Gardiner or the 401 and then drive up or down Yonge anyways, so taking the train is just as direct as driving yourself. Also, the WCE taking 50 percent longer than driving is not at all comparable to Go beating driving time.

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

What is enough?

Enough to justify taking money away from other transit priorities. You can't have it all.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Ok. so, what do you suggest the province does to provide a second route for people to use if the Malahat is closed?

Take the Mill Bay Ferry? Send people the long way 'round through Port Renfrew? Build a bridge at Willis Point? Ensure fast internet so they can work from home?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Ok. so, what do you suggest the province does to provide a second route for people to use if the Malahat is closed?

They already have several, you just don't like them. A train will have to wait until Hastings, the North Shore, Willingdon, 41st, Steveston, Stanley Park and the West End, Highway 99 to Seattle, the TCH and even the Okanagan Valley have second routes, and then it's Duncan's turn.

Alternatively, $700 million could get the province fourteen Airlander 10s, and those could serve the entire island.

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

They already have several, you just don't like them. A train will have to wait until Hastings, the North Shore, Willingdon, 41st, Steveston, Stanley Park and the West End, Highway 99 to Seattle, the TCH and even the Okanagan Valley have second routes, and then it's Duncan's turn.

Alternatively, $700 million could get the province fourteen Airlander 10s, and those could serve the entire island.

I think HSR to Seattle might even claim preeminence

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

So, the only reason the E&N should be rebuilt is if there is a high population for it?
Unlike the WCE, the line on VI is seldom used for freight. In fact, south of Duncan it is not used at all. That means the line would not be at the mercy of some freight carrier to run passenger service at times that actually suit the ridership.

Of course. I didn't even realize we were advocating for a connector past Langford. Langford - Victoria sounds unfeasable, Duncan - Victoria even moreso. Rail for the Valley has a better business case, but we don't even see that happening any time soon. If we can't justifiy Chilliwack (population 93k) and Abbotsford (population 154k), to Vancouver/Surrey, how can we justify Duncan-Langford-Victoria?

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by FarmerHaight

Enough to justify taking money away from other transit priorities. You can't have it all.

Why is it taking away from other things?

Originally Posted by FarmerHaight

Take the Mill Bay Ferry? Send people the long way 'round through Port Renfrew? Build a bridge at Willis Point? Ensure fast internet so they can work from home?

So, you want to ensure anyone commuting has a hard time to get home?

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

They already have several, you just don't like them. A train will have to wait until Hastings, the North Shore, Willingdon, 41st, Steveston, Stanley Park and the West End, Highway 99 to Seattle, the TCH and even the Okanagan Valley have second routes, and then it's Duncan's turn.

Alternatively, $700 million could get the province fourteen Airlander 10s, and those could serve the entire island.

Again, why should it have to wait? Why does the province only need to improve one metro area?

Originally Posted by chowhou

Of course. I didn't even realize we were advocating for a connector past Langford. Langford - Victoria sounds unfeasable, Duncan - Victoria even moreso. Rail for the Valley has a better business case, but we don't even see that happening any time soon. If we can't justifiy Chilliwack (population 93k) and Abbotsford (population 154k), to Vancouver/Surrey, how can we justify Duncan-Langford-Victoria?

It is hard to justify passenger service on lines owned by CP/CN when it is the only line to the rest of Canada from one of Canada's biggest port.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Why is it taking away from other things?

... Again, why should it have to wait? Why does the province only need to improve one metro area?

Again, because BC's only got enough billion CAD for one or two at a time. We're not a Soviet command economy.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

So, you want to ensure anyone commuting has a hard time to get home?

If they want an easier commute, they can relocate to Langford. Housing isn't that much cheaper in Duncan.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Again, because BC's only got enough billion CAD for one or two at a time.

Which comes from the entire province, not just the Lower Mainland.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

If they want an easier commute, they can relocate to Langford. Housing isn't that much cheaper in Duncan.

Sure, but the supply isn't enough for people to do that. We are in a housing shortage.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Which comes from the entire province, not just the Lower Mainland.

Sure, but the supply isn't enough for people to do that. We are in a housing shortage.

By the same token, BC residents also pay for the unending dumpster fire known as the TTC: $10.9 billion for one subway, and they still want more. Such is society.

There's no supply anywhere - at least when you're in Langford, your town is big enough to justify a train.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

It is hard to justify passenger service on lines owned by CP/CN when it is the only line to the rest of Canada from one of Canada's biggest port.

It's not justified on a dedicated right of way either.

I could see a rapid transit solution north from Victoria through Saanich to the Airport and Schwartz Bay before this happening.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

...that section between Shawinagan Lake to Duncan is no longer the sticks. They have become bedroom communities. So, that means that people cannot go to work or come home after work.

If they want an alternative to the highway, then let them pay for it. Or at least use the existing bus service to show that the demand is there. Put their money where their mouth is.

Otherwise, let them reap the consequences of the location they decided to settle in.

[Changing City]

It looks like this study comprehensively examines the options, and concludes a better bus service is the way to go. (The sort of rain we saw last November would disrupt service, but it would probably have stopped rail service too). "Some people favor rail over bus transit because they consider it more comfortable, prestigious and reliable, but bus service would be more frequent, direct, affordable, and faster overall for most trips. As a result, bus transit is likely to attract more passengers and provide more total benefits than rail."