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  #2461  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2018, 12:42 AM
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Originally Posted by corynv View Post
Also when to the teams get that money specifically? Is it now, or is it around the draft?
Not sure on that - I think they paid part of the money to the league today, but don't know about the balance.

I think the more critical point is that the Sens share of the fee became guaranteed money today, so he can treat it as money in the bank.
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  #2462  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2018, 2:28 AM
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In any case, Melnyk stays until the entire $21 million is paid out.
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  #2463  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2018, 3:29 AM
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Originally Posted by phil235 View Post
It's $21 million and it's free and clear money. If he saw that the end is coming, there was a lot of incentive to wait until he got that money before selling. It's just a timing thing.

Given that he is clearly losing money on the team, the option of plowing that into operations might be less appealing than taking the cash and moving on.
This is irrelevant. Once he pockets the money, the selling price drops by $21M.
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  #2464  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2018, 3:50 PM
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This is irrelevant. Once he pockets the money, the selling price drops by $21M.
Not sure that is true. Putting the $21 million into team operations is not going to raise the selling price by that amount.

This is a windfall outside of the normal operations of the team. It should have no bearing on the selling price of the team, unless the purchaser is receiving an extra $21 million in cash or assets (which is not going to happen).
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  #2465  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2018, 5:24 PM
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Originally Posted by phil235 View Post
Not sure that is true. Putting the $21 million into team operations is not going to raise the selling price by that amount.

This is a windfall outside of the normal operations of the team. It should have no bearing on the selling price of the team, unless the purchaser is receiving an extra $21 million in cash or assets (which is not going to happen).
The $21M windfall will accrue to Melnyk whether he sells now or later. If he sells later, he collects the payment directly. If he sells now, it will be capitalized into the price buyers are willing to pay (since the $21M claim would transfer to the new owner along with the rest of the team's assets).
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  #2466  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2018, 5:53 PM
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Originally Posted by shawkr View Post
The $21M windfall will accrue to Melnyk whether he sells now or later. If he sells later, he collects the payment directly. If he sells now, it will be capitalized into the price buyers are willing to pay (since the $21M claim would transfer to the new owner along with the rest of the team's assets).
I don't think it is that clear cut. I think there is every incentive to take the guaranteed money and then negotiate a sale of the team. Do you really think that a buyer is going to give him exactly $21 million dollars less for the team because that payment was made? Real life negotiations aren't that exact. In any event, probably not worth debating, as it is all theoretical.
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  #2467  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2018, 7:26 PM
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Arena no longer key to public support for LeBreton project, poll shows

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More than half of respondents — 55 per cent — said they support the RendezVous LeBreton vision, while only 17 per cent opposed the project.

When asked if they would be "extremely disappointed if the redevelopment of LeBreton Flats were put in limbo over this dispute," 64 per cent agreed.

However, it doesn't appear their disappointment is anchored to an NHL arena at LeBreton, the centrepiece of the RendezVous LeBreton proposal.

Only 41 per cent of respondents agreed that including a new arena is a "crucial ingredient in any proposal to redevelop LeBreton Flats."

An almost equal portion — 40 per cent of poll-takers — disagreed.

The remainder had no opinion.
Also, the poll shows that Eugene Melnyk is extremely unpopular in this city(to the point that hockey fans will not support the Sens while Melnyk is the owner), but that's not anything new to anyone who's been following the Sens for the past year.
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  #2468  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2018, 7:30 PM
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That’s all nice, but what else do people want and how do they think it will be funded?
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  #2469  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2018, 7:36 PM
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Originally Posted by shawkr View Post
The $21M windfall will accrue to Melnyk whether he sells now or later. If he sells later, he collects the payment directly. If he sells now, it will be capitalized into the price buyers are willing to pay (since the $21M claim would transfer to the new owner along with the rest of the team's assets).
But based on the assumption that:

1) there is a mystery billionaire who wants to buy the team and keep it in Ottawa
2j said billionaire is also willing to drop a half billion dollars on a new arena.

Then said billionaire’s motivations are something other than money (because he will lose a lot of money) and is unlikely to quivel over 20M.
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  #2470  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2018, 9:39 PM
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Forbes has new numbers out.

https://www.forbes.com/teams/ottawa-senators/
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  #2471  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2018, 4:55 PM
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Originally Posted by phil235 View Post
I don't think it is that clear cut. I think there is every incentive to take the guaranteed money and then negotiate a sale of the team. Do you really think that a buyer is going to give him exactly $21 million dollars less for the team because that payment was made? Real life negotiations aren't that exact. In any event, probably not worth debating, as it is all theoretical.
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
But based on the assumption that:

1) there is a mystery billionaire who wants to buy the team and keep it in Ottawa
2j said billionaire is also willing to drop a half billion dollars on a new arena.

Then said billionaire’s motivations are something other than money (because he will lose a lot of money) and is unlikely to quivel (sic) over 20M.

Yes, I really believe that the willingness to pay for a guaranteed payment of $21M is exactly $21M. I don't understand why that's at all debatable.
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  #2472  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2018, 5:25 PM
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Yes, I really believe that the willingness to pay for a guaranteed payment of $21M is exactly $21M. I don't understand why that's at all debatable.
Because any hypothetical sale of the Sens (with an intent to stay in Ottawa and build an arena under the terms available from the NCC and city) is a non-economic transaction and based on emotion or philanthropy. Treating it like a purely accounting transaction makes little sense.
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  #2473  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2018, 1:26 AM
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Because any hypothetical sale of the Sens (with an intent to stay in Ottawa and build an arena under the terms available from the NCC and city) is a non-economic transaction and based on emotion or philanthropy. Treating it like a purely accounting transaction makes little sense.
Ok, I think you are fundamentally misunderstanding the economics of NHL franchises. Just have a look at what Melnyk paid for the Sens, and look at their current value. While owners may expect to lose money in some years (the Sens have made money in other years), they are not expecting to lose money overall. Melnyk has made a few hundred million during his ownership, on paper at least.
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  #2474  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2018, 3:49 AM
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Originally Posted by phil235 View Post
Ok, I think you are fundamentally misunderstanding the economics of NHL franchises. Just have a look at what Melnyk paid for the Sens, and look at their current value. While owners may expect to lose money in some years (the Sens have made money in other years), they are not expecting to lose money overall. Melnyk has made a few hundred million during his ownership, on paper at least.
First of all the Senators have never made money. Melnyk bought the team out of bankruptcy and he has lost money on the team pretty much since day one.
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/sports/...118/story.html

I think some people confuse “operating income” (which Forbes lists) with profit, but those are not the same thing. But if someone rents out a condo out for $1000, pays $200 in condo fees, $200 in taxes and $800 in mortgage interest, their operating income is $800 a month, but the are taking a loss of $200 a month.

Yes the capital asset has appreciated (which has happened across the league, mainly because broadcasters are currently overpaying for rights), but that is not the same as making money.

It is possible another owner may be willing to take a loss on the team in hopes capital appreciation exceeds the annual loss on the team, or in hopes of a future relocation, but such an owner has zero incentive to build a new arena.
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  #2475  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2018, 5:45 AM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
Because any hypothetical sale of the Sens (with an intent to stay in Ottawa and build an arena under the terms available from the NCC and city) is a non-economic transaction and based on emotion or philanthropy. Treating it like a purely accounting transaction makes little sense.
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Originally Posted by phil235 View Post
Ok, I think you are fundamentally misunderstanding the economics of NHL franchises. Just have a look at what Melnyk paid for the Sens, and look at their current value. While owners may expect to lose money in some years (the Sens have made money in other years), they are not expecting to lose money overall. Melnyk has made a few hundred million during his ownership, on paper at least.
Do you have a favourite author? For sake of argument, let's say your favourite author is Charles Dickens. No, let's say you adore Dickens. You also adore rare books and have money to spend. Now imagine you're at an auction where one of the lots is a first edition David Copperfield. It's in pristine condition. There are maybe a dozen such copies in the world. How much does the Dickens-adoring, rare-book-collecting, disposable-income-having version of you bid?

Now suppose there is a $21,000 cheque inside the book (paid to CASH). Does this change your bid?
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  #2476  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2018, 12:52 PM
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Originally Posted by shawkr View Post
Do you have a favourite author? For sake of argument, let's say your favourite author is Charles Dickens. No, let's say you adore Dickens. You also adore rare books and have money to spend. Now imagine you're at an auction where one of the lots is a first edition David Copperfield. It's in pristine condition. There are maybe a dozen such copies in the world. How much does the Dickens-adoring, rare-book-collecting, disposable-income-having version of you bid?

Now suppose there is a $21,000 cheque inside the book (paid to CASH). Does this change your bid?
No, because it is an emotional purchase, an additional asset worth 0.002% of the value of the book means nothing to me.
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  #2477  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2018, 1:30 PM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
Yes the capital asset has appreciated (which has happened across the league, mainly because broadcasters are currently overpaying for rights), but that is not the same as making money.
True, if you retain that asset.

But if you sell said asset the gain in equity is significant income in the form of a capital gain. Since he bought both the team AND rink for $127M, he is looking at a pretty decent gain even if you factor in the corporate losses over the years. (Remember the Senators org made the losses not his personal accounts, this is different for taxation purposes and lowers the impact to his own wealth considering he has financed much of the losses through loans)
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  #2478  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2018, 1:58 PM
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True, if you retain that asset.

But if you sell said asset the gain in equity is significant income in the form of a capital gain. Since he bought both the team AND rink for $127M, he is looking at a pretty decent gain even if you factor in the corporate losses over the years. (Remember the Senators org made the losses not his personal accounts, this is different for taxation purposes and lowers the impact to his own wealth considering he has financed much of the losses through loans)
Yes, I agree that would be an incentive for him to sell, if he has receives an offer in that price range. My concern is there is no incentive for anyone to buy (and build a new arena).
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  #2479  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2018, 2:51 PM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
Yes, I agree that would be an incentive for him to sell, if he has receives an offer in that price range. My concern is there is no incentive for anyone to buy (and build a new arena).
Disagree. This week alone has shown that there is incentive to spend massively to enter the NHL. The Seattle group has just committed to $650 Million in expansion franchise fees and $850 Million in arena renovations to join the NHL. Any prospective Ottawa buyer could get in for probably half of that.
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  #2480  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2018, 2:52 PM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
First of all the Senators have never made money. Melnyk bought the team out of bankruptcy and he has lost money on the team pretty much since day one.
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/sports/...118/story.html

I think some people confuse “operating income” (which Forbes lists) with profit, but those are not the same thing. But if someone rents out a condo out for $1000, pays $200 in condo fees, $200 in taxes and $800 in mortgage interest, their operating income is $800 a month, but the are taking a loss of $200 a month.

Yes the capital asset has appreciated (which has happened across the league, mainly because broadcasters are currently overpaying for rights), but that is not the same as making money.

It is possible another owner may be willing to take a loss on the team in hopes capital appreciation exceeds the annual loss on the team, or in hopes of a future relocation, but such an owner has zero incentive to build a new arena.
Okay, a few things. First, having an asset that appreciates by roughly 300% in 15 years is a pretty good return on investment. Most people would consider that to be making money. That is the way franchise ownership in professional sports works. Owners make their real gains on the increase in the value of the franchise, not on operations. That is why Bettman's single purpose over his tenure has been to increase franchise value.

Secondly, no one can definitively state that the Senators have never made money. The team's financials are not public. An owner crying poor is pretty weak evidence that the team isn't making money. There are many ways to move profit to associated businesses to minimize tax. Even if you take him at his word, the article you linked says this:

"On Melnyk’s decade-long watch, they say, the team has generated a grand total of just $6 million on operations — that is, total revenues minus the costs associated with paying and moving the players, advertising and managing the arena. After subtracting items unrelated to operations — such as interest on the team’s debt and capital expenditures to keep the arena up-to-date — Melnyk has had to absorb cumulative cash losses of $94 million"

So even taking Melnyks own words, the operations of the team have made a small profit over the time he has been in ownership (i.e. the positive operating revenue that Forbes cites every year). The team has lost money in some years, no doubt, but in years with high attendance and long playoff runs, it is clear that they were profitable, as the net cashflow on operations has been positive.

Melnyk bought the team cheaply and the team was debt free when he bought it. The fact that he highly leveraged his purchase and the team (to support his other questionable businesses according to some reports), and has high debt payments to make from his operations does not mean that the team "never makes money". Operating revenue is the best measure of the viability of the operations. That is why Forbes uses that figure.

It will always be tight in this market, but an owner who buys the team using less debt has a reasonable prospect of making money. There is great incentive for a new owner to invest in a new arena - higher revenues generated from a more central location, both from the team and other events like concerts etc. Also, buildings don't last forever. The CTC is probably 60% of the way through its life cycle, so he needs to be planning for 15 years from now.

The question is whether those increased revenues are enough to justify him funding the full cost of constructing the arena . Other than in the biggest markets, there is usually some public support required to make the massive cost of a new arena viable.
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